Another good week for the “safe” bets, another bad one for the others.
As touched upon in the last post, bets like Tim Means and Karolina K were not wise picks due to their advanced ages (from a professional fighting standpoint). Through some analysis, I’ve discovered that the prime fighting age (by win%) is somewhere around 23. Furthermore, Karolina (38) was 16 years older than her opponent. Historically, a 22 year old has beaten a 38 year old, more than 75% of the time. In the case of betting underdogs especially, I will be factoring this in at some degree. Specifics TBD.
Therefore, I’m going to consider ages when deciding on picks going forward. I am working on an automated method for this, but for now, it will be manual.
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Now for the options…
[#5 FW] 
[#6 FW] 
[#1 W105] 
[#16 W105] 
