About a year ago, I posted the first update to my original post.

I feel the need to keep revisiting this as we get more data, because every few months I see this topic bubble up to the top of various sites and forums.

In summary, we started tracking weigh-in weights, and I wanted to see if the heavier fighters won more often than lighter fighters.  Using the same ideals as before, with an even larger data set:

• In 778 non-draw official fights where both fighters weighed in at different weights, but above 210 (our Light Heavyweight limit), 390 were won by the lighter fighter, and 388 won by the heavier fighter (49.9%).
• When you allow for mismatches and include matches in which only one fighter had to weigh above 210, the total tally increases to 946 and the gap widens, with the heavier fighter only winning 455 (48.1%).
• For the record, across the board, the heavier fighter has won 52.5% of the time.

The results are nearly identical as before, though the heavier fighter (again) gained ground in all three statistics.  There are a few possibilities to explain this and it could be a combination of:

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Only 69 times in MMA history has a professional fight went 5 rounds (or more) and the fight was finished before going to a decision.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen will only be the second time in history in which a rematch occured afterward.  The first, being a rematch between Jorge Santiago and Kazuo Misaki, where in the first match-up, Santiago won by submission in the 5th round — sound familiar?  Amazingly, Santiago won the rematch in the 5th round also, but that time by TKO.

We hit another home run with the GP Final pick.  Missed the outcome prop, but Cormier ended up being a great pick as he easily dispatched Barnett, as we expected.

For a reference, here are the details for our past “gambling analysis” article picks:

• UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
• UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
  • Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
  • No Outcome Predicted
• UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
  • Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
• StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
  • No Contest
• UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
  • Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
• UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
  • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
• UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
  • No Outcome Predicted
• Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
  • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision

If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $355.95.  The listed odds are either approximations, or provided by our sponsors, so with a little work on your part, you could increase this total a bit as we don’t go out of our way to find the absolute best odds.  Furthermore, if you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have even more profit.  We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting.

Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.

No contests excluded.  This should also settle the “which division is deepest” question.

Green signifies the highest in the division, bold signifies the division in which the outcome type is observed the most.  The underlined figure is the highest combo across the board.

Clearly there is a Japanese influence here, as their judges, especially the ones who preside over Shooto, are not afraid to score even rounds.  This increases the draws tremendously in the lower weights.

Also, the “overall (all)” statistics include bouts with no division info.  By nature of the data availability, this will include many fights from lesser organizations (more mismatches).

Shannon Ritch has the 2nd most pro fights at 127 and honestly, we’re likely missing a few.  In these 127 pro fights, he has NEVER went to a decision.  This is the record, by far.

Not only that, he has only been past the first round 5 times.

Dominick Cruz – He beat Faber, who is likely the best fighter in history south of Lightweight.  Cruz, along with Aldo, are both gunning for the aforementioned mythical title.

Georges St. Pierre – Though he beat a true #1 contender in Shields, his standing is hurt by the fact that he only managed one fight in 2011.

Jose Aldo – Two title defenses, but two workmanlike decisions in which he badly gassed against Hominick, who was struck down by one punch in his next fight.

Junior dos Santos – Took down the mighty, although inactive, Cain Velasquez to gain the Heavyweight crown.  His other win was against the seemingly spent Shane Carwin.

Dan Henderson – If you’re going for style points, it’s hard to argue against Henderson.  Knocked out Feijao, made another dent in Skynet, and went “life or death” with Shogun.

In the FightMatrix world, “fighter of the year” is determined by rank strength, divisional strength, and performances within the calendar year.

3rd Place: Miesha Tate

Winning one of the select few women’s titles that matter, Tate only fought one time within 2011 — though that one fight was enough to score her a 3rd place slot on the year.

2nd Place: Cristiane Santos

She remained the top woman in the sport, although like Tate, she also only fought once.  Her win, a 0:16 knockout over Yamanaka, the #1 contender who also saw time on the division dominance list, coupled with holding the top spot in the entire sport, was enough to edge out Tate for 2nd place.

1st Place: Naho Sugiyama

Probably not the popular choice in the largely US-based MMA world, but when you look at the real data, it’s hard to argue against this selection.  Although fighting in perhaps the weakest division in women’s MMA (though our lowest division runs up to 110lb), Sugiyama went 4-0 on the year, winning the JEWELS GP in this division.  Three of her four wins were over fighters currently ranked in the Top 4.  In what was a weak MMA year for this gender, Sugiyama gets a lot of love from the FightMatrix system.

Honorable Mention: Sarah Kaufman

Only three fighters in history have 20 or more wins and have avenged all of their losses.

Gilbert Melendez is the only fighter with 20 wins to avenge both of his losses once (total_loss-avenged_loss = 0).

Georges St. Pierre avenged both of his two losses, but later beat Hughes twice (-1).  He is the only 20 win fighter to drive the point home and end up with a net difference of less than 0.

Miku Matsumoto had an interesting journey onto this list.  She lost to Misaki Takimoto twice, then went on to beat her twice.  She also avenged losses to Lisa Ward and Carina Damm (0).

Bas Rutten almost made the cut.  He lost four times, twice to Ken Shamrock, both of which he did not avenge.  Though he did return to beat Funaki once and Frank Shamrock twice (+1).

Yuka Tsuji (sort of) backdoors her way into the discussion.  She avenged her early loss to Ana Michelle Tavares, but later lost to Mei Yamaguchi.  Though, she did hold a prior win over Yamaguchi.  There may likely be other instances of this as well.

Admittedly, selecting a comeback fighter of the year depends on a few factors, some of which are subjective.  Certainly, the math and data points are available to filter down to a select few possibilities before proceeding with the actual selection of the winner of said award.  Luckily, for 2011, the choice is pretty obvious.

The 2011 Comeback Fighter of the Year is: Shinichi Kojima

After suffering a decision loss to Jussier da Silva and losing his #1 Flyweight ranking, Kojima tore his ACL and suffered a 25 month layoff.  Kojima returned in August 2011 and took decision wins over Masaaki Sugawara and Kiyotaka Shimizu, propelling Kojima back up to #4 in the division.

Honorable Mentions: Ed Herman, Michal Materla

To the FightMatrix system, the most noteworthy match is based on cumulative rank strength accompanied by divisional strength.

In 2011, the most “noteworthy” match was: Frankie Edgar KO(4) Gray Maynard.

This saw the #1 versus the #2, for the most important championship in the deepest division (at least by number of competitors).  The only other #1 vs. #2 in 2011 (in the men’s — at least) was the first match between Edgar and Maynard.

The FightMatrix Most Improved Fighter of the Year for 2011 is: Michael Chandler

Chandler, who was unranked at the end of 2010, skyrocketed all the way up to #5 in the Lightweight division, with wins over highly ranked fighters such as Patricky Freire and Eddie Alvarez.  After going 4-0 in 2011, his career record stands at a perfect 9-0.

Honorable Mention: Robert Peralta