Category Archives: MMA Statistics

Youngest and Oldest UFC Champions

Feb 13, 2024
oleg

Recently, the following statistic has been popping up across MMA forums and message boards: “In all history of UFC, only twice has a fighter 35 or older won a title match at welterweight or below”.  The two title wins by the 35+ year old at lighter weight classes both belong to Tyron Woodley, who defended his title against Damien Maia and Darren Till at 35 & 36 years old, respectively.

Many fans have been using this statistic to predict doom for featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, in his UFC 298 title defense against Ilia Topuria. The 35-year-old Volkanovski is coming off a head kick knockout at the hands of lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, adding fuel to the fire behind his detractors.  Will father time once again remain undefeated, or will Volkanovski defy the MMA-Math and successfully defend his title, joining Woodley in the over-35 champion club? We will find out this coming weekend.  In the meanwhile, here’s a compilation of the youngest and oldest UFC champions through history of the organization:

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria (02-16-2024)

Feb 12, 2024
Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#5P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (26-3-0, -115) vs. [#4] Ilia Topuria (14-0-0, -106)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Ilia Topuria is the All-Time #45 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-07-08: W vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3
2023-02-11: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (25-1-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#6FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#14FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2
2022-03-19: W vs. [#128LW] Jai Herbert (12-5-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkanovski -115 50.96%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkanovski 2321.36 +256.15 76.32%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkanovski 2262.80 +222.64 72.61%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkanovski 2350.37 +251.14 80.93%
WHR Alexander Volkanovski 2221.72 +172.17 68.71%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 119, Ilia Topuria 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#7] Robert Whittaker (24-7-0, -217) vs. [*] Paulo Costa (14-2-0, +174)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #26 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (1-2-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#2MW/#10DD] Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2
2022-09-03: W vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD ()
2022-02-12: L vs. [#1MW/#8DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (1-2-0)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Luke Rockhold (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)
2020-09-26: L vs. [#1MW/#8DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:59 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Robert Whittaker -217 65.22%
Elo K170 Robert Whittaker 2141.38 +140.79 65.55%
Elo Modified Robert Whittaker 2118.40 +114.65 62.29%
Glicko-1 Robert Whittaker 2177.03 +93.48 63.14%
WHR Robert Whittaker 1951.77 +57.07 56.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 224, Paulo Costa 546
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Robert Whittaker leads 4-2
.

Welterweight (170)
[#11] Ian Garry (13-0-0, -231) vs. [#13] Geoff Neal (15-5-0, +184)

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (3-0-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#17WW] Neil Magny (29-11-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#38WW] Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#166WW] Kenan Song (20-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:22 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (2-1-0)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#5WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3
2022-08-06: W vs. [#9WW] Vicente Luque (22-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 3
2021-12-11: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ian Garry -231 66.46%
Elo K170 Geoff Neal 1980.69 +1.27 50.15%
Elo Modified Ian Garry 1970.17 +39.99 54.37%
Glicko-1 Ian Garry 2004.00 +34.99 55.02%
WHR Ian Garry 1918.30 +74.75 58.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Garry 182, Geoff Neal 350
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ian Garry leads 1-0
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer (02-10-2024)

Feb 5, 2024
Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#15] Jack Hermansson (23-8-0, +178) vs. [#29] Joseph Pyfer (12-2-0, -223)
Jack Hermansson is the All-Time #40 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jack Hermansson (1-2-0)
2022-12-03: L vs. [#14MW] Roman Dolidze (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 2
2022-07-23: W vs. [#20MW] Chris Curtis (31-10-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-02-05: L vs. [#3MW/#10DD] Sean Strickland (28-6-0) via SD (49-46, 47-48, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Joseph Pyfer (3-0-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#79MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2023-04-08: W vs. [#53MW] Gerald Meerschaert (35-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
2022-09-17: W vs. [*] Alen Amedovski (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:55 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joseph Pyfer -223 65.74%
Elo K170 Jack Hermansson 1864.46 +187.12 70.16%
Elo Modified Jack Hermansson 1909.80 +200.20 70.61%
Glicko-1 Jack Hermansson 1965.84 +178.50 73.64%
WHR Jack Hermansson 1805.63 +127.58 64.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Hermansson 434, Joseph Pyfer 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#15] Dan Ige (17-7-0, -176) vs. [#52] Andre Fili (23-10-0, +145)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (2-1-0)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#14FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#42FW] Nate Landwehr (17-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#36FW] Damon Jackson (22-6-1) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Andre Fili (2-1-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#178FW] Lucas Almeida (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:32 of round 1
2023-07-22: L vs. [#35FW] Nathaniel Wood (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#18FW] Bill Algeo (18-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dan Ige -176 60.97%
Elo K170 Dan Ige 1830.30 +109.34 62.24%
Elo Modified Dan Ige 1795.55 +117.13 62.55%
Glicko-1 Dan Ige 1834.04 +124.33 67.17%
WHR Dan Ige 1724.77 +83.67 59.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Ige 140, Andre Fili 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#83] Robert Bryczek (17-5-0) vs. [#185] Ihor Potieria (24-5-0)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Bryczek (3-0-0)
2023-07-28: W vs. [#102LHW] Samuel Kristofic (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 1
2023-05-20: W vs. [#276MW] Lee Chadwick (28-19-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:41 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#331MW] Abdel Rahmane Driai (8-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ihor Potieria (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#61LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 2
2023-05-13: L vs. [#31LHW] Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [*] Mauricio Rua (27-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Robert Bryczek 1645.42 +199.96 71.37%
Elo Modified Robert Bryczek 1661.97 +191.74 69.83%
Glicko-1 Robert Bryczek 1741.82 +261.39 81.83%
WHR Robert Bryczek 1670.09 +241.68 75.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Bryczek 197, Ihor Potieria 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov (02-03-2024)

Jan 29, 2024
Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#13] Roman Dolidze (12-2-0, +137) vs. [#16] Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0, -166)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (2-1-0)
2023-03-18: L vs. [#8MW] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#14MW] Jack Hermansson (23-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 2
2022-10-29: W vs. [#101MW] Phil Hawes (12-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nassourdine Imavov (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-06-10: NC vs. [#20MW] Chris Curtis (31-10-0)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#3MW/#10DD] Sean Strickland (28-6-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#24WW] Joaquin Buckley (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nassourdine Imavov -166 59.66%
Elo K170 Roman Dolidze 1847.82 +85.04 59.59%
Elo Modified Roman Dolidze 1852.88 +78.54 58.51%
Glicko-1 Roman Dolidze 1913.44 +72.56 60.29%
WHR Roman Dolidze 1786.42 +24.46 52.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 322, Nassourdine Imavov 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Roman Dolidze leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#27] Renato Carneiro (17-5-1, -145) vs. [#29] Drew Dober (27-12-0, +119)

Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (2-1-0)
2022-11-12: W vs. [#93LW] Brad Riddell (10-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:20 of round 1
2022-03-05: L vs. [#10LW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-15-0) via UD (49-44, 50-44, 49-45)
2022-02-12: W vs. [#74FW] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:23 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (2-1-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#132LW] Ricky Glenn (22-8-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 1
2023-05-06: L vs. [#37LW] Matt Frevola (11-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:08 of round 1
2022-12-17: W vs. [#18LW] Bobby Green (31-15-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:45 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Renato Carneiro -145 56.44%
Elo K170 Drew Dober 1846.41 +1.48 50.17%
Elo Modified Drew Dober 1838.24 +12.80 51.40%
Glicko-1 Drew Dober 1882.69 +13.02 51.87%
WHR Drew Dober 1807.30 +20.07 52.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 448, Drew Dober 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Renato Carneiro leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#32] Randy Brown (17-5-0, -241) vs. [#44] Muslim Salikhov (19-4-0, +192)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (2-1-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#134WW] Wellington Turman (18-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#12WW] Jack Della Maddalena (16-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [#46WW] Francisco Trinaldo (29-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Muslim Salikhov (1-2-0)
2023-06-17: L vs. [#29WW] Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-19: W vs. [#81WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3
2022-07-16: L vs. [*] Jingliang Li (19-8-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:38 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Randy Brown -241 67.35%
Elo K170 Randy Brown 1877.87 +74.15 58.39%
Elo Modified Randy Brown 1844.86 +61.88 56.73%
Glicko-1 Randy Brown 1852.55 +32.15 54.62%
WHR Muslim Salikhov 1713.57 +22.59 52.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 224, Muslim Salikhov 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis (01-20-2024)

Jan 15, 2024
Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#8DD/#8P4P] Sean Strickland (28-5-0, -138) vs. [#5] Dricus Du Plessis (20-2-0, +113)
Sean Strickland is the All-Time #17 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean Strickland (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#2MW/#9DD] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#67MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-6-1) via TKO in 4:20 of round 2
2023-01-14: W vs. [#16MW] Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#7MW] Robert Whittaker (24-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#10MW] Derek Brunson (24-9-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 4:59 of round 2
2022-12-10: W vs. [#25MW] Darren Till (18-5-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:43 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean Strickland -138 55.25%
Elo K170 Dricus Du Plessis 2232.01 +79.61 58.99%
Elo Modified Dricus Du Plessis 2192.23 +47.49 55.18%
Glicko-1 Dricus Du Plessis 2294.37 +101.78 64.24%
WHR Dricus Du Plessis 2113.40 +79.66 59.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Strickland 133, Dricus Du Plessis 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#8DD] Raquel Pennington (15-8-0, +138) vs. [#5] Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1, -167)
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #47 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (3-0-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#3BW] Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#10FW] Aspen Ladd (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-18: W vs. [*] Macy Chiasson (8-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:07 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mayra Bueno Silva (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-07-15: NC vs. [#4BW] Holly Holm (15-6-0)
2023-02-18: W vs. [*] Lina Lansberg (10-8-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 4:45 of round 2
2022-08-06: W vs. [#33BW] Stephanie Egger (8-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:17 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mayra Bueno Silva -167 59.81%
Elo K170 Raquel Pennington 1822.71 +285.41 78.65%
Elo Modified Raquel Pennington 1766.56 +199.65 70.56%
Glicko-1 Raquel Pennington 1715.38 +120.52 66.68%
WHR Raquel Pennington 1649.09 +119.86 63.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raquel Pennington 371, Mayra Bueno Silva 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#18] Neil Magny (28-11-0, +248) vs. [#81] Mike Malott (10-1-1, -329)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #39 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (1-2-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#11WW] Ian Garry (13-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#46WW] Philip Rowe (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-01-21: L vs. [#6WW] Gilbert Burns (22-6-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mike Malott (3-0-0)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#217WW] Adam Fugitt (9-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:06 of round 2
2023-02-25: W vs. [#197WW] Yohan Lainesse (9-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2022-04-09: W vs. [*] Mickey Gall (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Malott -329 72.74%
Elo K170 Neil Magny 1898.42 +200.92 71.46%
Elo Modified Neil Magny 1834.21 +124.04 63.25%
Glicko-1 Neil Magny 1861.26 +121.85 66.85%
WHR Mike Malott 1809.52 +67.08 57.60%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 154, Mike Malott 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker (01-13-2024)

Jan 8, 2024
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#6] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1, -504) vs. [#10] Johnny Walker (21-7-0, +359)
Magomed Ankalaev is the All-Time #41 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (1-0-1, 1 NC)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#10LHW] Johnny Walker (21-7-0)
2022-12-10: D vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2022-07-30: W vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#6LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (37-19-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#16MW] Paul Craig (17-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Magomed Ankalaev -504 79.29%
Elo K170 Magomed Ankalaev 2160.24 +228.44 73.95%
Elo Modified Magomed Ankalaev 2151.48 +219.07 72.29%
Glicko-1 Magomed Ankalaev 2252.70 +234.45 79.41%
WHR Magomed Ankalaev 2028.94 +153.19 66.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Ankalaev 84, Johnny Walker 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Magomed Ankalaev leads 7-3
.

Flyweight (125)
[#6] Manel Kape (19-6-0, -242) vs. [#10] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, +193)
Manel Kape is the All-Time #39 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Matheus Nicolau is the All-Time #33 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#133FLY] Felipe dos Santos (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#46FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#244BW] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (15-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Nicolau (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Royval (15-7-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-12-03: W vs. [#36FLY] Matt Schnell (16-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2
2022-03-26: W vs. [#46FLY] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Manel Kape -242 67.46%
Elo K170 Matheus Nicolau 1799.59 +1.16 50.13%
Elo Modified Manel Kape 1808.32 +55.36 56.03%
Glicko-1 Manel Kape 1868.67 +108.98 65.19%
WHR Manel Kape 1805.79 +116.38 62.99%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manel Kape 126, Matheus Nicolau 273
Previous Match-up Record: Matheus Nicolau leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#52] Jim Miller (36-17-0, -113) vs. [*] Gabriel Benitez (23-10-0, -109)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #42 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#144FW] Jesse Butler (12-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1
2023-02-18: L vs. [#72FW] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-02: W vs. [*] Donald Cerrone (36-17-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Benitez (1-2-0)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Charlie Ontiveros (11-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:35 of round 1
2022-02-19: L vs. [#66FW] David Onama (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:24 of round 1
2021-07-17: L vs. [#27FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jim Miller -113 50.42%
Elo K170 Jim Miller 1721.27 +271.05 77.53%
Elo Modified Jim Miller 1715.40 +239.57 74.05%
Glicko-1 Jim Miller 1792.47 +288.68 84.05%
WHR Jim Miller 1659.89 +211.90 72.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 224, Gabriel Benitez 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix 2023 Awards – Upsets of the Year

Jan 1, 2024
Jason

In case you didn’t know, we have our own list of annual awards we issue.  They’ve all been posted for 2023.

There is a lot of fine print on that page, so please read.  Furthermore, please be aware that the awards are at minimum, strongly guided by the data.

If time allows, I’d like to provide some commentary for each award in the coming weeks.  This post covers the upsets of the year, of which we post four.  All four are 100% objective.

Those four flavors are:

  1. “Most Noteworthy (FM)” – Largest difference (by subtraction) in pre-fight ratings using the standard rating points.*
  2. “Most Noteworthy (Glicko)” – Largest difference (by subtraction) in pre-fight ratings using the Glicko rating points.*
  3. “Most Noteworthy (GlickoNoReq)” – Largest difference (by subtraction) in pre-fight ratings using the Glicko rating points.
  4. “Most Lopsided” – Largest difference (by division) in pre-fight ratings using the standard rating points.*

#1, #2, and #4 do not include all fights (hence the asterisk).  See the Awards page for more details.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington (12-16-2023)

Dec 11, 2023
Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#5DD/#2P4P] Leon Edwards (21-3-0, -142) vs. [*] Colby Covington (17-3-0, +117)
Leon Edwards is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Colby Covington is the All-Time #8 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Leon Edwards (3-0-0)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#2WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)
2022-08-20: W vs. [#2WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:04 of round 5
2021-06-12: W vs. [*] Nate Diaz (21-13-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (2-1-0)
2022-03-05: W vs. [*] Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-11-06: L vs. [#2WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2020-09-19: W vs. [*] Tyron Woodley (19-7-1) via TKO (Rib Injury) in 1:19 of round 5

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Leon Edwards -142 56.01%
Elo K170 Leon Edwards 2466.73 +177.91 69.27%
Elo Modified Leon Edwards 2360.91 +113.24 62.15%
Glicko-1 Leon Edwards 2423.69 +127.00 67.50%
WHR Leon Edwards 2174.71 +143.34 65.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leon Edwards 273, Colby Covington 651
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Leon Edwards leads 4-2
.

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#2DD/#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (26-5-0, -177) vs. [#5] Brandon Royval (15-6-0, +144)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #10 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Brandon Royval is the All-Time #29 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#2FLY/#3DD/#4P4P] Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2022-07-30: W vs. [*] Alex Perez (24-7-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 1:31 of round 1
2021-08-21: W vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Royval (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (3-0-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#10FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-05-07: W vs. [#29FLY] Matt Schnell (16-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:14 of round 1
2022-01-15: W vs. [#36FLY] Rogerio Bontorin (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexandre Pantoja -177 60.92%
Elo K170 Alexandre Pantoja 2080.56 +186.18 70.07%
Elo Modified Alexandre Pantoja 1984.72 +166.76 67.48%
Glicko-1 Alexandre Pantoja 2050.83 +198.81 75.85%
WHR Alexandre Pantoja 1958.65 +172.29 68.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 161, Brandon Royval 245
Previous Match-up Record: Alexandre Pantoja leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexandre Pantoja leads 3-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#5] Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0-0, -596) vs. [#8] Stephen Thompson (17-6-1, +417)
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the All-Time #41 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Stephen Thompson is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Shavkat Rakhmonov (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#14WW] Geoff Neal (15-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3
2022-06-25: W vs. [#16WW] Neil Magny (28-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:58 of round 2
2022-02-05: W vs. [#42WW] Carlston Harris (19-5-0) via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (1-2-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#13WW] Kevin Holland (25-10-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2021-12-18: L vs. [#3WW] Belal Muhammad (23-3-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
2021-07-10: L vs. [#4WW] Gilbert Burns (22-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Shavkat Rakhmonov -596 81.57%
Elo K170 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2176.90 +166.93 68.19%
Elo Modified Shavkat Rakhmonov 2133.61 +135.74 64.43%
Glicko-1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2237.18 +178.07 73.59%
WHR Shavkat Rakhmonov 2157.60 +202.68 71.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shavkat Rakhmonov 287, Stephen Thompson 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez (12-09-2023)

Dec 4, 2023
Jason

Bantamweight (135)
[#11] Yadong Song (20-8-1, -364) vs. [#18] Chris Gutierrez (20-5-2, +275)

Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2023-04-29: W vs. [#25BW] Ricky Simon (21-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 5
2022-09-17: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2022-03-12: W vs. [*] Marlon Moraes (23-13-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Chris Gutierrez (2-1-0)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#72BW] Heili Alateng (16-9-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Frankie Edgar (24-11-1) via KO (Knee) in 2:01 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Yadong Song -364 74.62%
Elo K170 Yadong Song 1965.20 +108.42 62.14%
Elo Modified Yadong Song 1936.41 +126.63 63.51%
Glicko-1 Yadong Song 1985.53 +146.44 69.91%
WHR Yadong Song 1842.05 +136.13 65.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yadong Song 224, Chris Gutierrez 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#12] Khalil Rountree (12-6-0, -236) vs. [#14] Anthony Smith (37-18-0, +188)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #30 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Khalil Rountree (3-0-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#31LHW] Chris Daukaus (12-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2022-10-29: W vs. [#18LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-03-12: W vs. [*] Karl Roberson (9-6-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 0:25 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#16LHW] Ryan Spann (21-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#10LHW] Johnny Walker (21-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#6LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khalil Rountree -236 66.92%
Elo K170 Anthony Smith 1904.80 +115.99 62.94%
Elo Modified Anthony Smith 1848.88 +89.78 59.70%
Glicko-1 Anthony Smith 1923.01 +113.14 65.73%
WHR Anthony Smith 1765.30 +18.37 52.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khalil Rountree 119, Anthony Smith 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Smith leads 1-0
.

Flyweight (125)
[#30] Allan Nascimento (20-6-0, -255) vs. [*] Su Mudaerji (16-5-0, +201)

Last 3 Fights: Allan Nascimento (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#129FLY] Carlos Hernandez (9-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1
2022-05-14: W vs. [#65FLY] Jake Hadley (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-30: L vs. [#16FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Su Mudaerji (2-1-0)
2022-07-16: L vs. [#29FLY] Matt Schnell (16-8-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2
2021-01-20: W vs. [*] Zarrukh Adashev (4-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-11-28: W vs. [#123FLY] Malcolm Gordon (14-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Allan Nascimento -255 68.37%
Elo K170 Allan Nascimento 1648.13 +228.47 73.96%
Elo Modified Allan Nascimento 1698.60 +265.11 76.14%
Glicko-1 Allan Nascimento 1762.65 +323.38 86.55%
WHR Allan Nascimento 1740.02 +345.78 82.92%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Allan Nascimento 329, Su Mudaerji 511
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan (12-02-2023)

Nov 27, 2023
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#5] Beneil Dariush (22-5-1, +220) vs. [#15] Arman Tsarukyan (20-3-0, -282)
Beneil Dariush is the All-Time #38 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Beneil Dariush (2-1-0)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#9P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2022-10-22: W vs. [#6LW] Mateusz Gamrot (23-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-05-15: W vs. [#54LW] Tony Ferguson (25-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Arman Tsarukyan (2-1-0)
2023-06-17: W vs. [#111LW] Joaquim Silva (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:25 of round 3
2022-12-17: W vs. [#55LW] Damir Ismagulov (24-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-06-25: L vs. [#6LW] Mateusz Gamrot (23-2-0) via UD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Arman Tsarukyan -282 70.25%
Elo K170 Beneil Dariush 2196.34 +147.43 66.23%
Elo Modified Beneil Dariush 2149.24 +122.66 63.11%
Glicko-1 Beneil Dariush 2173.64 +80.54 61.39%
WHR Arman Tsarukyan 2017.67 +2.17 50.25%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Beneil Dariush 175, Arman Tsarukyan 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Beneil Dariush leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#12] Bobby Green (31-14-1, +196) vs. [#28] Jalin Turner (13-7-0, -247)

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#25LW] Grant Dawson (20-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2023-07-29: W vs. [#54LW] Tony Ferguson (25-9-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:54 of round 3
2023-04-22: NC vs. [#41LW] Jared Gordon (20-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Jalin Turner (1-2-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#14LW] Dan Hooker (23-12-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#6LW] Mateusz Gamrot (23-2-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#82LW] Brad Riddell (10-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jalin Turner -247 67.81%
Elo K170 Bobby Green 1987.99 +276.38 77.95%
Elo Modified Bobby Green 1945.00 +160.29 66.86%
Glicko-1 Bobby Green 2031.98 +149.20 70.24%
WHR Bobby Green 1868.54 +59.88 56.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bobby Green 56, Jalin Turner 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#3FLY] Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3-1, +118) vs. [#11] Rob Font (20-7-0, -144)
Rob Font is the All-Time #33 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Deiveson Figueiredo (1-2-0)
2023-01-21: L vs. [#2FLY/#4DD/#4P4P] Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
2022-01-22: W vs. [#2FLY/#4DD/#4P4P] Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2021-06-12: L vs. [#2FLY/#4DD/#4P4P] Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:26 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (1-2-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#59BW] Adrian Yanez (16-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2022-04-30: L vs. [#6BW] Marlon Vera (24-8-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rob Font -144 56.26%
Elo K170 Deiveson Figueiredo 2004.69 +113.57 62.69%
Elo Modified Deiveson Figueiredo 1963.69 +96.69 60.43%
Glicko-1 Deiveson Figueiredo 2029.42 +90.54 62.74%
WHR Deiveson Figueiredo 1876.76 +97.00 60.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Deiveson Figueiredo 315, Rob Font 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…