MMA Statistics – Page 2

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Medic vs Rodriguez (08-01-2026)

Posted on July 27, 2026 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#18][#15UFC] Uros Medic (13-3-0, -356) vs. [#19][#16UFC] Daniel Rodriguez (20-5-0, +283)

Last 3 Fights: Uros Medic (3-0-0)
2026-02-21: W vs. [#24WW] Geoff Neal (16-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:19 of round 1
2025-11-08: W vs. [#33WW] Muslim Salikhov (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:03 of round 1
2025-08-09: W vs. [#620WW] Gilbert Urbina (7-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Rodriguez (3-0-0)
2025-07-19: W vs. [#22WW] Kevin Holland (29-15-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#83WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:12 of round 3
2024-10-12: W vs. [#73WW] Alex Morono (24-13-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Uros Medic	-356		74.93%
Elo K170	Daniel Rodriguez	1975.72	+135.27	68.54%
Elo Modified	Daniel Rodriguez	1932.38	+91.33	62.85%
Glicko-1	Daniel Rodriguez	1987.45	+60.63	58.64%
WHR	Uros Medic	1807.07	+36.23	55.20%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Uros Medic 33.2, Daniel Rodriguez 39.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uros Medic 161, Daniel Rodriguez 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#9][#8UFC] Jan Blachowicz (29-11-2, +238) vs. [#27][#19UFC] Navajo Stirling (10-0-0, -354)
Jan Blachowicz is the All-Time #11 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jan Blachowicz (0-2-1)
2025-12-06: D vs. [#11LHW] Bogdan Guskov (18-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2025-03-22: L vs. [#3LHW] Carlos Ulberg (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#1LHW] Alex Pereira (13-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Navajo Stirling (3-0-0)
2026-06-20: W vs. [#38LHW] Ion Cutelaba (20-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:23 of round 2
2026-03-28: W vs. [#92LHW] Bruno Lopes (14-3-0) via NC in 4:05 of round 2
2025-09-27: W vs. [#58LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (13-3-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Navajo Stirling	-354		72.48%
Elo K170	Jan Blachowicz	1924.38	+106.57	64.87%
Elo Modified	Jan Blachowicz	1983.92	+142.73	69.46%
Glicko-1	Jan Blachowicz	2075.59	+174.08	73.15%
WHR	Jan Blachowicz	1922.49	+165.10	72.12%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jan Blachowicz 43.4, Navajo Stirling 28.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jan Blachowicz 238, Navajo Stirling 42
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#23][#15UFC] Marcin Tybura (27-11-0, +252) vs. [#36LHW][#23LHWUFC] Aleksandar Rakic (14-6-0, -313)

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (1-2-0)
2026-03-28: L vs. [#22HW+] Tyrell Fortune (18-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#20HW+] Ante Delija (26-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:03 of round 1
2025-03-22: W vs. [*] Mick Parkin (10-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Aleksandar Rakic (0-3-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#19LHW] Azamat Murzakanov (16-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 1
2024-10-26: L vs. [#2LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (22-2-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4LHW] Jiri Prochazka (32-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Aleksandar Rakic	-313		72.73%
Elo K170	Aleksandar Rakic	1782.12	+101.11	64.15%
Elo Modified	Aleksandar Rakic	1806.51	+87.16	62.29%
Glicko-1	Aleksandar Rakic	1856.82	+111.54	65.52%
WHR	Aleksandar Rakic	1697.31	+78.92	61.17%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Marcin Tybura 40.7, Aleksandar Rakic 34.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Tybura 126, Aleksandar Rakic 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#22)

Posted on July 23, 2026 by Jason

Still trying to get out of this hole…

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Inactivity – Does Age Matter?

Posted on July 22, 2026 by Jason

Recently, I thought about the effects of inactivity and wondered if age is a compounding factor. Does an older fighter suffer more from inactivity than a younger fighter?

Below, are the statistics for win % by the amount of inactivity prior to a fight.

Once we get past the slight improvement seen in the 91-180d segment, it is a pretty gradual decline in win %.

Let’s look at some age-specific data. The age ranges themselves were driven by my desire to split the fight data (by count) as evenly as possible.

It seems that all age groups benefit from staying active, especially the “Under 23” group. They see a win percentage improvement at inactivity periods of slightly beyond one year! I would not take the large dip at the higher inactivity periods for the “Under 23” group very seriously. The data is thin — how many fighters will be in this age group and have that many years of inactivity since their last fight? Not many.

All in all, the age groups track pretty similarly, but the older groups seem to handle extended inactivity a little better than the younger groups.

Interesting. Perhaps maturity plays a role here? I would’ve expected the opposite…

Taking the sport as a whole, it is easy to say that staying active matters, but how much impact do other factors have, like matchmaking? Is a fighter returning from 4 years of inactivity more likely to have a favorable match-up or a terrible one? Does this impact fighters of different ages in a similar manner?

Note: The data that drives the line charts is a subset of the data used for the win percentages in the first image as we do not have birth dates for all fighters. The win rate for fighters with birth dates is much higher than those without. Hardly anyone records the birth date of a 0-2 fighter.

I welcome discussion in the comments section…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov (07-25-2026)

Posted on July 20, 2026 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2][#2UFC] Magomed Ankalaev (21-2-1, -534) vs. [#11][#10UFC] Bogdan Guskov (18-3-1, +389)
Magomed Ankalaev is the All-Time #19 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (2-1-0)
2025-10-04: L vs. [#1LHW] Alex Pereira (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:20 of round 1
2025-03-08: W vs. [#1LHW] Alex Pereira (13-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#34LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Bogdan Guskov (2-0-1)
2025-12-06: D vs. [#9LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-11-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2025-07-26: W vs. [#24LHW] Nikita Krylov (31-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2025-01-18: W vs. [#65LHW] Billy Elekana (10-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:33 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Magomed Ankalaev	-534		80.46%
Elo K170	Magomed Ankalaev	2209.49	+335.13	87.31%
Elo Modified	Magomed Ankalaev	2195.27	+286.65	83.89%
Glicko-1	Magomed Ankalaev	2293.96	+304.82	85.25%
WHR	Magomed Ankalaev	1995.69	+128.49	67.69%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Magomed Ankalaev 34.1, Bogdan Guskov 33.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Ankalaev 294, Bogdan Guskov 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Magomed Ankalaev leads 2-1
.

Flyweight (125)
[#10][#10UFC] Steve Erceg (14-4-0, -122) vs. [*] Ramazonbek Temirov (19-3-0, +100)
Steve Erceg is the All-Time #50 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (2-1-0)
2026-05-02: W vs. [#14FLY] Tim Elliott (21-14-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-08-09: W vs. [#65FLY] Ode Osbourne (13-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: L vs. [#7FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-10-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Ramazonbek Temirov (3-0-0)
2025-03-01: W vs. [#24FLY] Charles Johnson (19-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-12: W vs. [*] C.J. Vergara (12-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:50 of round 1
2023-09-24: W vs. [#224FLY] Takaki Soya (13-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Steve Erceg	-122		52.35%
Elo K170	Steve Erceg	1819.41	+23.69	53.40%
Elo Modified	Ramazonbek Temirov	1803.60	+8.34	51.20%
Glicko-1	Ramazonbek Temirov	1857.01	+24.71	53.55%
WHR	Ramazonbek Temirov	1696.92	+4.01	50.58%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Steve Erceg 31.0, Ramazonbek Temirov 29.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Erceg 84, Ramazonbek Temirov 511
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#117][#57UFC] Islam Dulatov (12-1-0, -734) vs. [*] Wellington Turman (18-8-0, +519)

Last 3 Fights: Islam Dulatov (3-0-0)
2025-07-19: W vs. [#459WW] Adam Fugitt (10-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 1
2024-10-08: W vs. [#339MW] Vanilton Antunes (16-9-0) via KO (Elbow) in 2:44 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#735MW] Ioannis Palaiologos (20-15-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body) in 4:59 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Wellington Turman (0-3-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#217MW] Jared Gooden (23-12-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:11 of round 2
2023-06-24: L vs. [#35WW] Randy Brown (20-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#93MW] Andre Petroski (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Islam Dulatov	-734		84.48%
Elo K170	Islam Dulatov	1667.86	+228.68	78.86%
Elo Modified	Islam Dulatov	1650.34	+187.98	74.69%
Glicko-1	Islam Dulatov	1745.79	+291.68	84.27%
WHR	Islam Dulatov	1592.21	+239.28	79.86%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Islam Dulatov 28.0, Wellington Turman 30.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Islam Dulatov 371, Wellington Turman 966
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#21)

Posted on July 16, 2026 by Jason

Still trying to get out of this hole…

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs Usman (07-18-2026)

Posted on July 13, 2026 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#8DD][#13P4P][#3][#3UFC] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0, -275) vs. [#6WW][#6WWUFC] Kamaru Usman (21-4-0, +222)
Dricus Du Plessis is the All-Time #6 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #12 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (2-1-0)
2025-08-16: L vs. [#5P4P][#6DD][#2MW] Khamzat Chimaev (15-1-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2025-02-08: W vs. [#3P4P][#5DD][#1MW] Sean Strickland (31-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#11MW] Israel Adesanya (24-6-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:38 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (1-2-0)
2025-06-14: W vs. [#11WW] Joaquin Buckley (21-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#5P4P][#6DD][#2MW] Khamzat Chimaev (15-1-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2023-03-18: L vs. [#9WW] Leon Edwards (22-6-0) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Dricus Du Plessis	-275		70.24%
Elo K170	Dricus Du Plessis	2276.74	+12.88	51.85%
Elo Modified	Kamaru Usman	2275.98	+57.60	58.21%
Glicko-1	Kamaru Usman	2387.11	+78.25	61.08%
WHR	Dricus Du Plessis	2124.27	+64.74	59.21%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dricus Du Plessis 32.5, Kamaru Usman 39.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dricus Du Plessis 336, Kamaru Usman 399
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dricus Du Plessis leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#13][#11UFC] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0, +250) vs. [#15][#12UFC] Christian Leroy Duncan (14-2-0, -314)
Jared Cannonier is the All-Time #26 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jared Cannonier (1-2-0)
2025-08-16: L vs. [#12WW] Michael Page (25-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#12MW] Gregory Rodrigues (19-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 4
2024-08-24: L vs. [#8MW] Caio Borralho (18-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 49-45)

Last 3 Fights: Christian Leroy Duncan (3-0-0)
2026-03-21: W vs. [#12LHW] Roman Dolidze (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-11-08: W vs. [#84MW] Marco Tulio (14-3-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist and Punches) in 3:28 of round 2
2025-08-09: W vs. [#41MW] Eryk Anders (18-9-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) in 3:53 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Christian Leroy Duncan	-314		72.63%
Elo K170	Christian Leroy Duncan	1946.35	+5.18	50.75%
Elo Modified	Christian Leroy Duncan	1957.85	+31.76	54.56%
Glicko-1	Christian Leroy Duncan	2041.27	+53.44	57.63%
WHR	Jared Cannonier	1917.30	+61.11	58.71%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jared Cannonier 42.3, Christian Leroy Duncan 31.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jared Cannonier 336, Christian Leroy Duncan 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jared Cannonier leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#106][#52UFC] Chase Hooper (16-5-1, -319) vs. [#460][#82UFC] Mitch Ramirez (8-3-0, +255)

Last 3 Fights: Chase Hooper (1-2-0)
2026-03-28: L vs. [#85LW] Lance Gibson Jr. (10-2-0) via NC in 2:56 of round 1
2025-08-16: L vs. [#41LW] Alexander Hernandez (18-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 1
2025-04-12: W vs. [#52LW] Jim Miller (39-19-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Mitch Ramirez (1-2-0)
2025-07-12: L vs. [#119LW] Mike Davis (12-3-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 4:08 of round 2
2024-03-16: L vs. [#91LW] Thiago Moises (19-10-0) via TKO (Leg Kicks) in 0:15 of round 3
2023-12-15: W vs. [#979WW] Aireon Tavarres (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Chase Hooper	-319		72.99%
Elo K170	Chase Hooper	1564.26	+153.57	70.77%
Elo Modified	Chase Hooper	1588.93	+138.36	68.92%
Glicko-1	Chase Hooper	1605.19	+161.02	71.64%
WHR	Chase Hooper	1616.90	+193.97	75.34%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Chase Hooper 26.8, Mitch Ramirez 33.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chase Hooper 112, Mitch Ramirez 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#20)

Posted on July 9, 2026 by Jason

Still trying to get out of this hole…

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 (07-11-2026)

Posted on July 6, 2026 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#5LW][#5LWUFC] Max Holloway (27-9-0, -222) vs. [*] Conor McGregor (22-6-0, +183)
Max Holloway is the All-Time #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #47 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (1-2-0)
2026-03-07: L vs. [#8DD][#3LW] Charles Oliveira (37-11-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2025-07-19: W vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#2LW] Ilia Topuria (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (1-2-0)
2021-07-10: L vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2021-01-23: L vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
2020-01-18: W vs. [*] Donald Cerrone (36-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Max Holloway	-222		66.11%
Elo K170	Max Holloway	2242.31	+129.67	67.84%
Elo Modified	Max Holloway	2218.45	+161.20	71.66%
Glicko-1	Max Holloway	2297.50	+211.58	77.17%
WHR	Max Holloway	2070.46	+256.11	81.37%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Max Holloway 34.6, Conor McGregor 38.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 126, Conor McGregor 1827
Previous Match-up Record: Conor McGregor leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 3-2
.

Lightweight (155)
[#7][#6UFC] Benoit St. Denis (17-3-0, -143) vs. [#12][#11UFC] Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0, +118)

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2026-01-31: W vs. [#15LW] Dan Hooker (24-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 2
2025-11-15: W vs. [#17LW] Beneil Dariush (23-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2025-09-06: W vs. [#8LW] Mauricio Ruffy (14-2-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (2-1-0)
2026-01-24: L vs. [#3DD][#7P4P][#1LW] Justin Gaethje (28-5-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#32LW] Michael Chandler (23-11-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:07 of round 3
2024-07-27: W vs. [#43LW] King Green (35-17-1) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Benoit St. Denis	-143		56.19%
Elo K170	Benoit St. Denis	2171.14	+115.80	66.07%
Elo Modified	Benoit St. Denis	2114.96	+91.61	62.89%
Glicko-1	Benoit St. Denis	2217.43	+115.13	65.99%
WHR	Benoit St. Denis	1997.09	+9.40	51.35%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Benoit St. Denis 30.5, Paddy Pimblett 31.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Benoit St. Denis 161, Paddy Pimblett 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#5][#5UFC] Cory Sandhagen (18-6-0, -151) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Mario Bautista (17-3-0, +122)
Cory Sandhagen is the All-Time #15 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cory Sandhagen (1-2-0)
2025-10-04: L vs. [#4DD][#8P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (25-7-1) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 4:08 of round 2
2024-08-03: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Mario Bautista (2-1-0)
2026-02-07: W vs. [#27FW] Vinicius Oliveira (25-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 2
2025-10-25: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#17BW] Patrick Mix (19-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Cory Sandhagen	-151		57.18%
Elo K170	Mario Bautista	2126.61	+24.98	53.59%
Elo Modified	Mario Bautista	2066.19	+10.95	51.58%
Glicko-1	Cory Sandhagen	2146.45	+8.56	51.23%
WHR	Cory Sandhagen	1943.31	+4.86	50.70%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Cory Sandhagen 34.2, Mario Bautista 33.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cory Sandhagen 280, Mario Bautista 154
Previous Match-up Record: Cory Sandhagen leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#19)

Posted on June 26, 2026 by Jason

Still trying to get out of this hole…

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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The Cage Lies Less Than the Hype Sheet

Posted on June 26, 2026 by A. J. Riot

MMA betting starts with a blunt rule: the better fighter is not always the better price. A ranking, a highlight reel, and a loud walkout can push bettors toward the same side before the matchup is properly priced. FightMatrix readers already know the sport needs harder inputs: activity, divisional movement, opponent quality, finishing rate, durability, and schedule context.

The UFC market is unforgiving because public money arrives early on famous names. A recognizable fighter can be overvalued after one clean knockout. A quiet grappler can remain underpriced because their work looks ugly, slow, and exhausting.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres (06-27-2026)

Posted on June 22, 2026 by Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#14][#12UFC] Rafael Fiziev (13-5-0, -118) vs. [#20][#15UFC] Manuel Torres (17-3-0, -103)
Rafael Fiziev is the All-Time #50 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (1-2-0)
2026-01-31: L vs. [#8LW] Mauricio Ruffy (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:30 of round 2
2025-06-21: W vs. [#35LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#4DD][#7P4P][#1LW] Justin Gaethje (28-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Manuel Torres (2-1-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#21LW] Grant Dawson (24-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:25 of round 1
2025-03-29: W vs. [#45LW] Drew Dober (29-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:45 of round 1
2024-09-14: L vs. [#35LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Rafael Fiziev	-118		51.61%
Elo K170	Manuel Torres	1891.35	+44.95	56.43%
Elo Modified	Manuel Torres	1863.49	+10.73	51.54%
Glicko-1	Manuel Torres	1966.74	+81.21	61.48%
WHR	Manuel Torres	1907.33	+61.94	58.82%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rafael Fiziev 33.3, Manuel Torres 31.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Fiziev 147, Manuel Torres 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rafael Fiziev leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#25][#20UFC] Sharabutdin Magomedov (16-1-0, -343) vs. [#71][#42UFC] Michel Pereira (33-14-0, +266)

Last 3 Fights: Sharabutdin Magomedov (2-1-0)
2025-07-26: W vs. [#47MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (18-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-02-01: L vs. [#12WW] Michael Page (25-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#137LHW] Armen Petrosyan (11-7-0) via KO (Spinning Backfists) in 4:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (1-2-0)
2026-02-21: W vs. [#118MW] Zachary Reese (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-08-23: L vs. [#49MW] Kyle Daukaus (17-5-0) via KO (Punches and Elbows) in 0:43 of round 1
2025-04-26: L vs. [#35MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (28-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sharabutdin Magomedov	-343		73.91%
Elo K170	Sharabutdin Magomedov	1880.40	+154.58	70.89%
Elo Modified	Sharabutdin Magomedov	1896.00	+201.79	76.16%
Glicko-1	Sharabutdin Magomedov	1955.75	+257.64	81.51%
WHR	Sharabutdin Magomedov	1891.32	+284.68	83.74%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sharabutdin Magomedov 32.1, Michel Pereira 32.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sharabutdin Magomedov 336, Michel Pereira 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#81][#42UFC] Nazim Sadykhov (11-2-1, -242) vs. [#204][#71UFC] Matheus Camilo (10-3-0, +195)

Last 3 Fights: Nazim Sadykhov (2-1-0)
2025-12-06: L vs. [#44LW] Fares Ziam (18-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:59 of round 2
2025-06-21: W vs. [#183LW] Nikolas Motta (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 2
2025-02-15: W vs. [#152LW] Ismael Bonfim (20-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Camilo (2-1-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#354LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-05-17: L vs. [#174LW] Gabriel Green (12-5-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:43 of round 2
2024-12-14: W vs. [#515LW] Dorobshokh Nabotov (9-2-0) via UD ()

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Nazim Sadykhov	-242		67.60%
Elo K170	Nazim Sadykhov	1727.80	+175.63	73.32%
Elo Modified	Nazim Sadykhov	1716.08	+132.89	68.25%
Glicko-1	Nazim Sadykhov	1766.74	+213.23	77.34%
WHR	Nazim Sadykhov	1677.30	+156.97	71.17%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Nazim Sadykhov 32.1, Matheus Camilo 25.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nazim Sadykhov 203, Matheus Camilo 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Matheus Camilo leads 1-0
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#18)

Posted on June 18, 2026 by Jason

Still trying to get out of this hole…

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Decoding MMA Betting Odds: How to Spot Value in UFC and Combat Sports

Posted on June 17, 2026 by A. J. Riot

The UFC and other major promotions in the fight industry have seen their popularity rise, so have the number of people betting on their matches.

However, many bettors are only interested in the odds if they believe they will win, not if they’re a good value.

Being successful at a game of betting does not just involve making a prediction of the winner. It’s really about recognizing when outcomes have a higher probability than would be normally expected.

By learning the terminology of the odds in MMA betting, you can make better decisions and will not make common mistakes that make casual bettors lose money.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 (06-20-2026)

Posted on June 16, 2026 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#3][#3UFC] Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5-0, +135) vs. [#5][#5UFC] Manel Kape (22-7-0, -163)
Kyoji Horiguchi is the All-Time #16 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Manel Kape is the All-Time #22 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kyoji Horiguchi (3-0-0)
2026-02-07: W vs. [#21FLY] Amir Albazi (17-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#15FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (18-3-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:18 of round 3
2024-12-31: W vs. [#113FLY] Nkazimulo Zulu (16-9-1) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (3-0-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#7FLY] Brandon Royval (17-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2025-03-01: W vs. [#11FLY] Asu Almabayev (23-3-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 2:16 of round 3
2024-12-14: W vs. [#41FLY] Bruno Silva (15-10-2) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 1:57 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Manel Kape	-163		59.29%
Elo K170	Kyoji Horiguchi	2154.68	+150.19	70.36%
Elo Modified	Kyoji Horiguchi	2113.33	+156.13	71.07%
Glicko-1	Kyoji Horiguchi	2173.03	+142.34	69.41%
WHR	Kyoji Horiguchi	2041.43	+98.05	63.75%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kyoji Horiguchi 35.7, Manel Kape 32.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyoji Horiguchi 133, Manel Kape 189
Previous Match-up Record: Kyoji Horiguchi leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#26][#17UFC] Ion Cutelaba (20-11-1, +258) vs. [#36][#22UFC] Navajo Stirling (9-0-0, -331)

Last 3 Fights: Ion Cutelaba (2-1-0)
2026-03-14: W vs. [#40LHW] Oumar Sy (12-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:24 of round 1
2025-05-10: L vs. [#28LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (20-7-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 27-30)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#125LHW] Ibo Aslan (14-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:51 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Navajo Stirling (3-0-0)
2026-03-28: W vs. [#82LHW] Bruno Lopes (14-3-0) via NC in 4:05 of round 2
2025-09-27: W vs. [#51LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (13-3-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-05-10: W vs. [#55LHW] Ivan Erslan (15-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Navajo Stirling	-331		73.33%
Elo K170	Navajo Stirling	1738.31	+22.51	53.24%
Elo Modified	Navajo Stirling	1764.96	+6.16	50.89%
Glicko-1	Ion Cutelaba	1831.65	+26.53	53.81%
WHR	Ion Cutelaba	1706.25	+19.13	52.75%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ion Cutelaba 32.5, Navajo Stirling 28.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ion Cutelaba 98, Navajo Stirling 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#88][#46UFC] Hyder Amil (11-2-0, +131) vs. [#119][#55UFC] Christian Rodriguez (12-4-0, -159)

Last 3 Fights: Hyder Amil (1-2-0)
2025-11-08: L vs. [#70FW] Jamall Emmers (22-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 30-27)
2025-06-28: L vs. [#52FW] Jose Delgado (11-2-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 0:26 of round 1
2025-03-01: W vs. [#41FW] William Gomis (15-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Christian Rodriguez (1-2-0)
2025-08-09: L vs. [#64FW] Andre Fili (25-13-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2025-03-29: L vs. [#21FW] Melquizael Costa (26-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#154FW] Austin Bashi (14-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Christian Rodriguez	-159		58.64%
Elo K170	Hyder Amil	1562.95	+16.08	52.31%
Elo Modified	Christian Rodriguez	1574.23	+60.24	58.58%
Glicko-1	Christian Rodriguez	1582.84	+54.32	57.75%
WHR	Christian Rodriguez	1553.45	+65.38	59.30%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Hyder Amil 36.0, Christian Rodriguez 28.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Hyder Amil 224, Christian Rodriguez 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#17)

Posted on June 11, 2026 by Jason

Still trying to get out of this hole…

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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