#26 – #16: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1

If you missed the first part, you can visit it w/ the link above.  It has all of the details about how this list came to be.

#15 – #11

#15 – Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Rep Avg: #80.0 | Fight Matrix: #117)

Not a huge leap from #117 to #80.  To be at the 14 spot in this list and to only see this kind of gap, either speaks volumes about how representative our all-time rankings are, or vice versa.  The area around #100 is REALLY crowded with “almost greats”.

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For those of you who do not know, in addition to our Current MMA Rankings, we also feature an All-Time MMA Rankings that is updated every month (usually on the 2nd).

In a previous post, I took a look at the most underrated fighters of all-time.  At the time, I said I wouldn’t look at the most underrated — but what the hell?  This list required some additional thought and rules to make sure fighters listed are notable, but here it is…

Not surprisingly, it is still tough to find (seemingly) reputable lists:

Crowd-sourcing Representative: Tapology Top 150 (2015-09-09)

“Peak” Mathematical Representative: MMA-ELO Top 100 (2015-09-09)

“Cumulative” Mathematical Representative: Sports-Ratings Top 250 (2015-01-03)

I would have loved to have added an “Expert” representative, but I could not find one readily available.

When compared to the last series, all of the lists above have since been updated — although the “Sports Ratings” list is still out of date.  Furthermore, I went deeper on the Top X for two of the three sites and the All-Time Rankings here has seen (at least) two relatively major updates in order to increase the precision of some calculations.

Methodology & Notes

• I am taking the average of a fighter’s ranks in the above three lists.  If a fighter is not in one of the lists, that rank is the list maximum + 1.
• I am then subtracting the above average from the Fight Matrix ranking as of the last run.  A negative result = overrated.
• Finally, I am valuing “higher” ranks more than “lower” ranks.  Example:  A fighter with a representative average of #15 that we rank at #40, is a slightly more overrated fighter than one with a representative average of #90 that we rank at #230.  The break-even point is close to this though.
• I removed women from the lists — men and women don’t belong in the same list.
• Sports-Ratings has a fighter named Jesper Hallberg at #217.  Sherdog has him as having zero professional fights, so he is removed from contention.
• Fighters must be in the Top 250 at Fight Matrix and be in at least two representative lists to be considered.

Value Formula (How they are ranked): (502 / SumOf3RepRanks) * DiffOf3RepRanksAvgFromFM
502 = Max Sum of 3 Rep Positions seen in all fighters considered

An honorable mention…. well two.

Due to the minimum qualifications of the list, Rickson Gracie was left off.  I felt it necessary to list him, as he easily would’ve made the top spot.  Ironically, #2 would’ve been Renzo Gracie.  Says a lot for name power, doesn’t it?

#26 – #15

#26 – Norifumi Yamamoto (Rep Avg: #118.7 | Fight Matrix: #152)

I had every intention of starting out the list with #25, but with Yamamoto at #26, I had to include him.  I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard gripes about him not being listed in one of our All-Time Top 25s.  The answer is simple; the guy never accumulated much worth at a single division.  Instead he bounced between 3 of them and didn’t do enough in any one.

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