Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 25: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 (02-15-2020)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Jan Blachowicz (25-8-0, +184) vs. [#9] Corey Anderson (13-4-0, -227)
Jan Blachowicz is the All-Time #29 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Corey Anderson is the All-Time #38 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jan Blachowicz (2-1-0)
2019-11-16: W vs. [#10MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-8-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#12LHW] Luke Rockhold (16-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
2019-02-23: L vs. [#3LHW] Thiago Santos (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Corey Anderson (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#27LHW] Johnny Walker (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 1
2018-12-29: W vs. [#47HW+] Ilir Latifi (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-22: W vs. [#11LHW] Glover Teixeira (30-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Corey Anderson – Win%: 66.34
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jan Blachowicz (2064.49) [+64.86] – Win%: 57.36
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jan Blachowicz (2017.04) [+3.13] – Win%: 50.34
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jan Blachowicz (2033.48) [+26.79] – Win%: 54.90
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jan Blachowicz 91, Corey Anderson 105
Previous Match-up Record: Corey Anderson leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#61] Diego Sanchez (29-12-0, +133) vs. [#142] Michel Pereira (24-10-0, -160)
Diego Sanchez is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Diego Sanchez (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#9WW] Michael Chiesa (17-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#155WW] Mickey Gall (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 2
2018-09-08: W vs. [#248WW] Craig White (14-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (2-1-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#92WW] Tristan Connelly (14-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#115WW] Danny Roberts (17-5-0) via KO (Flying Knee and Punch) in 1:47 of round 1
2019-02-23: W vs. [#571HW+] Dae Sung Kim (4-6-0) via TKO in 1:02 of round 2
Odds Favorite (Implied): Michel Pereira – Win%: 58.91
Elo Favorite (Standard): Diego Sanchez (1711.43) [+187.22] – Win%: 70.17
Elo Favorite (Modified): Diego Sanchez (1707.76) [+158.73] – Win%: 66.70
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Diego Sanchez (1668.64) [+98.66] – Win%: 68.00
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diego Sanchez 224, Michel Pereira 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#57] Devin Clark (10-4-0) vs. [#164] Dequan Townsend (22-10-0)
Last 3 Fights: Devin Clark (1-2-0)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#14LHW] Ryan Spann (17-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:01 of round 2
2019-06-01: W vs. [#121LHW] Darko Stosic (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#19LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Dequan Townsend (1-2-0)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#128MW] Bevon Lewis (7-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#74LHW] Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 0:42 of round 3
2019-03-09: W vs. [#399LHW] Wayman Carter (7-10-0) via SUB in of round 1
Elo Favorite (Standard): Devin Clark (1553.42) [+247.08] – Win%: 75.56
Elo Favorite (Modified): Devin Clark (1573.65) [+242.13] – Win%: 74.27
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Devin Clark (1535.67) [+188.83] – Win%: 81.19
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Devin Clark 126, Dequan Townsend 21
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Why I hate how Reyes “Won” / A New Scoring Idea
Long before I started following MMA, I followed boxing. In fact, I cut my rating software teeth over at BoxRec before I helped found this site. The sport’s history is incredible, HBO carried almost all the major fights with the best production I’ve ever seen in boxing or MMA and the star power was enormous.
Boxing has always had problems though; the amount of divisions and titles make it difficult for fans to follow, corruption has caused some egregious scorecards, unregulated matchmaking results in lopsided main events and most importantly, a lot of boring fights where boxers chase points to win. I’m focusing on the last one.
Chasing points makes more sense in boxing. Most big fights are 12 rounds, which can create a lot of mini-stories and “back and forth” within one fight. 36 minutes of fighting is a long time. Also, combatants wear big padded gloves better equipped for defense and causing CTE than they are for creating KOs. Boxers can only use their fists as weapons and in top fights where boxers are competitively matched, there’s only so much that can be done to end a fight prematurely. MMA does not have these problems.
I saw Reyes play a bit of this strategy in the main event last night through the first 3 rounds. I’m honestly not sure who won the fight, but I think it should’ve been a 48-47 win using the current system. Ignoring who he is as a person, I was happy to hear that Jones won the fight, mainly because I would’ve been unhappy if Reyes won. After hearing the 49-46 scorecard announced, I was sure Jones had taken it. Regardless of how inept the judges are, there’s no way that they could not give him rounds 4 & 5. I’m glad they did and I’m about to explain why.
People think the current scoring system is flawed and I’ve heard a few ideas regarding “better” systems.
- Add half-point scoring – Keep the current system but promote the use of 10-9.5 and 10-8.5 scores. I think this is bad, because it allows the judges to have more “play”, which has people complaining already.
- Use the entire 10 points – Rounds can be 10-10, 10-9, 10-8, 10-7 and all the way down. I dislike this for the same reason, but it is much worse.
- More 10-10s and 10-8s – Be more free with the 10-10 and 10-8 scoring for rounds. I actually support this idea, but don’t think it fixes the problem.
- Survival = Draw – If fighters survive to the end, it is a draw. This is the system (correct me if I’m wrong) currently used in Lethwei. We also saw some of this in early MMA and professional wrestling (TV time-limit draw). I’d like to see a trial run of this. Would fighters try harder to finish? Or would fans just lose interest as we get tremendous amounts of draws?
My plan is simple:
Keep the round-by-round scoring, but the 10-point cards aren’t added up at the end. Instead, the number of the round won, equates to the value and that results in the final scores.
Example: Most people thought Reyes won 1-3 and Jones, 4-5. Reyes gets a score of (1+2+3 = 6), while Jones gets a score of (4+5 = 9). Jones wins 9-6.
Alternate Example: “Non-championship” rounds worth 1, “Championship” rounds worth 2. Reyes (1+1+1 = 3), Jones (2+2 = 4). Jones wins 4-3.
It sounds crazy at first, but coming from a boxing fanbase, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that “MMA is more of a real fight than boxing”. I agree and in a real fight, there are no rounds and it may not be over until it is really over, until someone gets incapacitated or worse. In such a fight, which is more important, the first 10 seconds or the last? If a fighter (Reyes) dances around another (Jones) on the streets and then gets gassed, how do you think that fight is going to end up?
Increasing importance should be placed on the end of the fight. Furthermore, it is the last thing that people remember, whether someone makes a strong comeback, or both fighters are horribly gassed.
The only downside is that in 3 round fights, the first example almost definitely results in more draws, while the second has zero impact. I think we can either live with that or make some tweaks.
Watching Reyes compile those points in the first three rounds reminded me of why I’ve mostly moved on from boxing, while watching Jones finish strong made me miss it. Boxing has had some of the greatest sports moments coming down to the close of a fight and perhaps a change like this could see MMA join that club. Imagine how much more exciting fights would be, coming to the final bell? Think about it.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes (02-08-2020)
Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#9DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (25-1-0, -450) vs. [#9] Dominick Reyes (12-0-0, +337)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #1 ranked Light Heavyweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#3LHW] Thiago Santos (21-7-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#4LHW] Anthony Smith (32-14-0) via UD (48-44, 48-44, 48-44)
2018-12-29: W vs. [*] Alexander Gustafsson (18-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (3-0-0)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#14MW] Chris Weidman (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:43 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [#10LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (17-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#21LHW] Ovince St. Preux (24-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Jon Jones – Win%: 78.14
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jon Jones (2426.11) [+440.21] – Win%: 88.20
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jon Jones (2358.60) [+420.93] – Win%: 86.33
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jon Jones (2352.40) [+350.78] – Win%: 92.59
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 217, Dominick Reyes 113
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (18-3-0, -1226) vs. [#2/#6P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (13-2-0, +722)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #11 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (3-0-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#4FLY] Liz Carmouche (13-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#3FLY] Jessica Eye (15-7-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:26 of round 2
2018-12-08: W vs. [#3SW/#7DD/#10P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Katlyn Chookagian (2-1-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#6FLY] Jennifer Maia (17-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#8FLY] Joanne Calderwood (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#3FLY] Jessica Eye (15-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Valentina Shevchenko – Win%: 88.36
Elo Favorite (Standard): Valentina Shevchenko (1854.94) [+134.20] – Win%: 64.86
Elo Favorite (Modified): Valentina Shevchenko (1860.55) [+110.34] – Win%: 61.85
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Valentina Shevchenko (1851.42) [+117.13] – Win%: 70.38
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 182, Katlyn Chookagian 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Valentina Shevchenko leads 2-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#173] Juan Adams (5-2-0, -226) vs. [#349] Justin Tafa (3-1-0, +183)
Last 3 Fights: Juan Adams (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#104HW+] Greg Hardy (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
2019-05-04: L vs. [#67HW+] Arjan Singh Bhullar (10-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#230HW+] Chris de la Rocha (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Justin Tafa (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#146HW+] Yorgan De Castro (6-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:10 of round 1
2019-05-24: W vs. [NA] David Taumoepeau (1-3-0) via TKO in 0:30 of round 2
2018-07-28: W vs. [*] Jeremy Joiner (4-3-0) via TKO in 0:28 of round 1
Odds Favorite (Implied): Juan Adams – Win%: 66.23
Elo Favorite (Standard): Juan Adams (1270.41) [+121.23] – Win%: 63.50
Elo Favorite (Modified): Juan Adams (1412.99) [+159.56] – Win%: 66.79
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Juan Adams (1326.52) [+117.55] – Win%: 71.89
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Juan Adams 203, Justin Tafa 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night 166: Blaydes vs. dos Santos (01-25-2020)
Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Junior dos Santos (21-6-0, +197) vs. [#7] Curtis Blaydes (12-2-0, -245)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #41 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (2-1-0)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#3HW+] Francis Ngannou (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:11 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [#5HW+] Derrick Lewis (22-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 2
2018-12-01: W vs. [#44HW+] Tai Tuivasa (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#17HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punch) in 2:22 of round 2
2019-03-23: W vs. [#16HW+] Justin Willis (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-25)
2018-11-24: L vs. [#3HW+] Francis Ngannou (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
Odds Favorite (Implied): Curtis Blaydes – Win%: 67.83
Elo Favorite (Standard): Junior dos Santos (2018.18) [+70.21] – Win%: 57.95
Elo Favorite (Modified): Junior dos Santos (2029.22) [+65.99] – Win%: 57.17
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Junior dos Santos (2019.20) [+66.54] – Win%: 62.07
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 210, Curtis Blaydes 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Curtis Blaydes leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#7] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0, -260) vs. [#25] Michael Chiesa (16-4-0, +209)
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #24 ranked Welterweight and #31 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#5WW] Leon Edwards (18-3-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#6LW] Kevin Lee (18-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:47 of round 4
2018-11-30: L vs. [#1WW/#3DD/#6P4P] Kamaru Usman (16-1-0) via UD (49-45, 50-43, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Michael Chiesa (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#63WW] Diego Sanchez (29-12-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#75WW] Carlos Condit (30-13-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 0:56 of round 2
2018-07-07: L vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (22-10-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 0:52 of round 2
Odds Favorite (Implied): Rafael dos Anjos – Win%: 69.05
Elo Favorite (Standard): Rafael dos Anjos (2029.40) [+89.18] – Win%: 60.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Rafael dos Anjos (1994.37) [+67.74] – Win%: 57.36
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Rafael dos Anjos (2007.12) [+76.27] – Win%: 63.60
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 189, Michael Chiesa 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rafael dos Anjos leads 2-0
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Featherweight (145)
[#7] Josh Emmett (15-2-0, -103) vs. [#32] Arnold Allen (15-1-0, -120)
Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#26FW] Mirsad Bektic (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#84LW] Michael Johnson (19-15-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:14 of round 3
2018-02-24: L vs. [#14FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-17-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:35 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Arnold Allen (3-0-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#100FW] Gilbert Melendez (22-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#86FW] Jordan Rinaldi (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-05-27: W vs. [#81FW] Mads Burnell (13-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:41 of round 3
Odds Favorite (Implied): Arnold Allen – Win%: 51.80
Elo Favorite (Standard): Josh Emmett (1954.82) [+113.53] – Win%: 62.68
Elo Favorite (Modified): Josh Emmett (1940.09) [+106.52] – Win%: 61.45
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Josh Emmett (1937.01) [+96.57] – Win%: 67.16
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 196, Arnold Allen 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cerrone (01-18-2020)
Welterweight (170)
[#16] Donald Cerrone (36-13-0, +247) vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0, -316)
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #43 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (1-2-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-06-08: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#9P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-05-04: W vs. [#12LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (2-1-0)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#4P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:03 of round 4
2016-11-12: W vs. [#27WW] Eddie Alvarez (30-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2016-08-20: W vs. [#11WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via MD (47-47, 48-47, 48-47)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Conor McGregor – Win%: 72.49
Elo Favorite (Standard): Conor McGregor (2172.99) [+190.54] – Win%: 70.49
Elo Favorite (Modified): Conor McGregor (2111.55) [+152.79] – Win%: 66.12
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Conor McGregor (2112.86) [+120.48] – Win%: 70.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 126, Conor McGregor 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Conor McGregor leads 3-2
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Holly Holm (12-5-0, -137) vs. [#5] Raquel Pennington (10-7-0, +112)
Holly Holm is the All-Time #17 ranked Women’s fighter.
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #47 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (1-2-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2018-06-09: W vs. [#6FW] Megan Anderson (9-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-12-30: L vs. [#1FW/#5DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (21-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#6BW] Irene Aldana (12-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#2BW/#8DD] Germaine de Randamie (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-12: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:36 of round 5
Odds Favorite (Implied): Holly Holm – Win%: 55.06
Elo Favorite (Standard): Raquel Pennington (1583.55) [+56.64] – Win%: 56.43
Elo Favorite (Modified): Raquel Pennington (1542.93) [+10.96] – Win%: 51.20
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Holly Holm (1561.35) [+30.00] – Win%: 55.62
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Holly Holm 196, Raquel Pennington 182
Previous Match-up Record: Holly Holm leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Raquel Pennington leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#18] Alexey Oleynik (59-13-1, +110) vs. [#58] Maurice Greene (8-3-0, -135)
Last 3 Fights: Alexey Oleynik (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#14HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2019-04-20: L vs. [#9HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2018-09-15: W vs. [#19HW+] Mark Hunt (13-14-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Maurice Greene (2-1-0)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#36HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2019-06-29: W vs. [#72HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [#94HW+] Jeff Hughes (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Maurice Greene – Win%: 54.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexey Oleynik (1634.72) [+94.73] – Win%: 60.65
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexey Oleynik (1693.73) [+155.53] – Win%: 66.39
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alexey Oleynik (1680.24) [+164.59] – Win%: 78.08
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexey Oleynik 182, Maurice Greene 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Comparing the strength of schedule of Michael “Venom” Page and Anderson Silva through 18 fights
During the broadcast of Bellator 237, former referee turned commentator “Big” John McCarthy mentioned that Michael Page’s schedule through his career so far has been similar in terms of difficulty to that of former UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva through the same stretch. Since Page has developed the reputation of a can smasher, this comment raised the ire of many MMA fans on social media. On its face, the comment is absurd. In his first 18 fights, Silva claimed the Shooto middleweight (168-pound) championship and knocked off a former UFC welterweight champion. But is the comparison really that outlandish?
Using Fight Matrix ranking points, it is possible to approximate the level of difficulty both fighters have faced through their first 18 fights. Every year, the website publishes the “Upsets of the Year” award. The most simple calculation is “Most Noteworthy,” which is the difference in ranking points (ranking points of a fighter minus the ranking points of an opponent). The higher the number, the larger the favorite. Through their first 18 fights, Page’s average most noteworthy score is 22.83, while Silva’s 21.61. However, that does not tell the entire story. Page’s average is buttressed by his fight against Douglas Lima. He went in as a heavy underdog against the Bellator champion and got knocked out in the second round. Without that fight, his average most noteworthy score rises to 41.35.
Also, Page’s level of opposition has declined significantly following his only career defeat. He has been a heavy favorite in his last three fights over Richard Keily, Gianni Melillo and Shinzo Anzai. The spike on the following chart is quite evident.
(Click here for the interactive Tableau Public version of this chart)
It would also be unfair to Silva to ignore that fact that his a large portion of his early opposition went on to have solid careers. When he fought Luiz Azeredo, Fabricio Camoes and Roan Carneiro they were a combined 3-2. All three went on to have extensive careers in major promotions such as the UFC and Pride FC. While those fighters blossomed later in their careers, it seems unlikely that will happen for some of Page’s early opponents. His first two opponents, Ben Dishman and Miguel Bernard, are still a combined 0-6 nearly eight years later.
While it does seem like large McCarthy was shilling from the commentary booth, Page’s early career run has not been that facile. However, his team and Bellator have clearly tried to give him a softer touch as of late.
Richard Mann is a regular contributor to @ESPNMMA, @FightMetric, @RotoWireMMA and @InterMat. You can follow him on Twitter at @richardamann.
Fight Matrix Program – PFL 2019 #10 (12-31-2019)
Women Featherweight (154)
[#5] Larissa Pacheco (13-3-0, 153.6lb, +711) vs. [#7] Kayla Harrison (6-0-0, 154.8lb, -1245)
Last 3 Fights: Larissa Pacheco (2-1-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#8FW] Sarah Kaufman (21-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-07-11: W vs. [#29FW] Bobbi Jo Dalziel (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:31 of round 1
2019-05-09: L vs. [#7FW] Kayla Harrison (6-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
Last 3 Fights: Kayla Harrison (3-0-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#29FW] Bobbi Jo Dalziel (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:32 of round 1
2019-07-11: W vs. [#55FW] Morgan Frier (4-3-0) via Submission (Key Lock) in 3:35 of round 1
2019-05-09: W vs. [#5FW] Larissa Pacheco (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Kayla Harrison – Win%: 88.24
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kayla Harrison (1440.10) [+10.97] – Win%: 51.25
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kayla Harrison (1547.65) [+50.90] – Win%: 55.55
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kayla Harrison (1481.80) [+14.37] – Win%: 52.79
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Larissa Pacheco 81, Kayla Harrison 81
Previous Match-up Record: Kayla Harrison leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (169)
[#39] David Michaud (18-5-0, 169.5lb, +113) vs. [#53] Ray Cooper III (19-7-1, 168.6lb, -142)
Last 3 Fights: David Michaud (3-0-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#69WW] Glaico Franca (22-6-0) via MD ()
2019-10-11: W vs. [#62WW] John Howard (28-16-1) via UD ()
2019-07-11: W vs. [#80WW] Handesson Ferreira (14-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:37 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Ray Cooper III (1-1-1)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#89WW] Chris Curtis (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:11 of round 2
2019-10-11: D vs. [#88WW] Sadibou Sy (8-5-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-07-11: L vs. [#62WW] John Howard (28-16-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:23 of round 1
Odds Favorite (Implied): Ray Cooper III – Win%: 55.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): David Michaud (1821.04) [+103.32] – Win%: 61.59
Elo Favorite (Modified): David Michaud (1785.77) [+65.77] – Win%: 57.15
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): David Michaud (1763.86) [+5.34] – Win%: 51.00
Days Since Last Pro Fight: David Michaud 81, Ray Cooper III 81
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: David Michaud leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (258)
[#20] Ali Isaev (8-0-0, 258.8lb, -507) vs. [#36] Jared Rosholt (20-7-0, 250.6lb, +366)
Last 3 Fights: Ali Isaev (3-0-0)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#35HW+] Denis Goltsov (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 3
2019-10-31: W vs. [#51HW+] Kelvin Tiller (11-5-0) via UD ()
2019-08-08: W vs. [#138HW+] Carl Seumanutafa (12-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Jared Rosholt (3-0-0)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#51HW+] Kelvin Tiller (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#86HW+] Muhammed DeReese (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2019-08-08: W vs. [#55HW+] Satoshi Ishii (22-10-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Ali Isaev – Win%: 79.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ali Isaev (1777.99) [+35.78] – Win%: 54.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ali Isaev (1818.91) [+48.46] – Win%: 55.28
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ali Isaev (1799.19) [+51.12] – Win%: 59.42
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ali Isaev 61, Jared Rosholt 61
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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