UFC Fight Night 70: Machida vs Romero was originally supposed to take place in Brazil, as the finale of ‘The Ultimate Fighter Brazil’ Season 4. For reasons unknown to me, the event was moved to US some weeks back, and a number of Brazilian fighters scheduled to fight were not able to secure their travel visas in time. This really played havoc on the fight card – besides losing the ‘TUF’ finalists, the scheduled co-main event between Rick Story and Eric Silva has also been postponed, among with some other changes to the line up. Fortunately, the main event of Lyoto Machida vs Yoel Romero remained intact, saving the card from being a total dud.
Main Card (Fox Sports 1)
Main Event: [#4 MW] Lyoto Machida vs [#9 MW] Yoel Romero
Worth: $20
Why: This is a great fight, with significant implications for both opponents as well as the divisional picture. The 38-year-old former Olympian, Yoel ‘Soldier of God’ Romero rose quickly through the middleweight rankings after his UFC debut. He has won all five of his UFC bouts, most recent being a somewhat controversial TKO victory over Tim Kennedy. Besides his world-class wrestling credentials, Romero has very fluid striking and immense stopping power and generally prefers to keep the fight standing, which resulted in all but one of his wins ending in a T/KO. Romero was twice slated to face off with Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza, but the fight fell through both times due to injuries. He now takes on a very different breed of beast in Lyoto Machida, and a win here will put him very close to a shot at the title.
Former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida, though a year younger than his opponent, has had a much longer MMA career, and the wear and tear of it may be starting to take a toll on his body. Though he’s been fairly successful since dropping down to 185 lbs, Machida is 6-6 overall since suffering the first loss of his career in a rematch for the 205 lbs with Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua. In his latest fight, Machida was absolutely decimated by Luke Rockhold; I was very surprised by how one-side the fight was, considering that Lyoto went the distance with the champion Chris Weidman, and was even somewhat competitive against former light heavyweight champ Jon Jones. Perhaps he just had an off night, or a bad weight cut, or was suffering from an undisclosed injury. Or maybe Rockhold is just that good. However there’s always the possibility that Machida is nearing the end of his run as an elite fighter. This is the quickest turn-around between fights in Lyoto’s UFC career – he is obviously in a rush to put the Rockhold loss behind him and get back on the winning track.
Stylistically, this is a interesting bout. Romero’s striking based game plan and often porous defense could leave him susceptible to counter strikes, which are Machida’s bread and butter. Yoel tends to be a slow starter and we’ve seen him get rocked early in several fights, only to be saved by his concrete chin and deep gas tank. Machida has a clear advantage in striking technique, whereas Romero has significantly greater power in his hands. Romero has a wrestling advantage, but mainly uses the threat of takedowns to keep his opponents guessing and as an opportunity to land a fight-ending blow. When he does score a takedown, he rarely keeps his opponent on the mat for an extended period of time, so I don’t expect the ground game to play a significant role in this fight. I tend to avoid making predictions, but I’ll go out on a limb here and pick Romero by a late TKO, propelling him into the Top 5 and keeping his win streak alive.