Welterweight (170)
[#15] Jake Ellenberger (30-9-0) vs. [#29] Stephen Thompson (10-1-0)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #20 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (1-2-0)
2015-02-28: W vs. [#113WW] Josh Koscheck (17-10-0) via Submission (North South Choke) in 4:20 of round 2
2014-11-15: L vs. [#12MW] Kelvin Gastelum (11-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 1
2014-05-24: L vs. [#1WW/#9DD/#8P4P] Robbie Lawler (25-10-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:06 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (3-0-0)
2014-09-27: W vs. [#44WW] Patrick Cote (21-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-02-22: W vs. [#19MW] Robert Whittaker (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:43 of round 1
2013-09-21: W vs. [#202WW] Chris Clements (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:27 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 134, Stephen Thompson 288
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#39] Kamaru Usman (5-1-0) vs. [#231] Hayder Hassan (6-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2014-07-18: W vs. [#724WW] Marcus Hicks (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 5:00 of round 2
2014-04-04: W vs. [#986MW] Lenny Lovato (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 3
2014-01-31: W vs. [NA] Steven Rodriguez (2-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Hayder Hassan (3-0-0)
2014-10-31: W vs. [#615WW] Felipe Portela (8-2-0) via TKO (Punch) in 3:23 of round 1
2013-10-12: W vs. [#249LW] Jason Jackson (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 3
2010-04-30: W vs. [NA] Robert Thompson (11-18-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 359, Hayder Hassan 254
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#118MW] Vicente Luque (7-4-1) vs. [#151] Mike Graves (4-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (2-1-0)
2014-06-21: W vs. [#713WW] Paulistenio Rocha (7-3-1) via UD ()
2013-07-13: L vs. [#115MW] Carlos Alexandre Pereira (31-10-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 0:44 of round 3
2013-05-10: W vs. [*] Marcelo Lisboa (6-2-0) via TKO in 0:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mike Graves (3-0-0)
2014-10-31: W vs. [#1111WW] Rafael Souza (7-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 2
2014-04-03: W vs. [#974WW] Rico Farrington (3-2-0) via in of round 1
2013-06-21: W vs. [NA] Danny Finz (0-2-0) via TKO in 1:26 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vicente Luque 386, Mike Graves 254
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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UFC 189 is one of the most anticipated, and definitely the most hyped, Pay-Per-View event of the year thus far. The hype was mainly centered around Conor McGregor challenging Jose Aldo for the featherweight championship. Of course, no UFC event is left untouched by the injury curse, and a couple of weeks before the event Aldo suffered a rib injury in training.  After much hemming and hawing regarding the severity of his injury and whether he will be able to compete, it was finally announced that Jose’s rib is broken, and Chad Mendes will step up on short notice to face McGregor for an interim belt.

Despite the main event going down the crapper, this still remains of the most stacked cards in recent memory, and one of the few that will meet and even exceed the price of a UFC PPV. I usually wait until a day or two before the event to publish these blogs, as to account for last minute injuries and other unexpected changes in the line up; however with 4 UFC events in an 8-day span I’ll have to get started early, and keep it short.  Let’s just hope the rest of this card remains intact till Saturday.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event: [#4 FW] Chad Mendes vs [#6 FW] Conor McGregor  for the Interim UFC Featherweight Championship

Worth: $20

Why: Though I was looking forward to Aldo – McGregor, I am really not that upset about this fight falling through.  The UFC hype machine fast-tracked Conor to a title shot without him having to face any of the other top contenders in the division, or an opponent with legitimate wrestling/grappling credentials. The match-up with Mendes addresses both of the above critiques, and will answer a few questions about whether McGregor is just hype or the real deal.  Creating an interim title for a rib injury is silly but understandable:  it allows UFC to keep McGregor in the main event, and it’s obvious that they want to put some kind of gold around the waist of one of their biggest draws at the moment – even if it’s a meaningless paper belt.  Let’s just ignore the whole interim title thing, and consider it a #1 contender match: if Conor wins, the ‘title unification’ fight with Aldo will be even more anticipated than UFC 189.  Conor McGregor is a very polarizing figure, and the odds have him as a slight favorite, so if you don’t buy into the hype and enjoy MMA betting, here’s your chance to put your money where your mouse is. As for me, I won’t make any predictions on this fight… not even touching it with Mauro Ranallo’s 25-centimeter pole.

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Featherweight Championship (145)
[#4] Chad Mendes (17-2-0, +129) vs. [#6] Conor McGregor (17-2-0, -153)
Chad Mendes is the All-Time #6 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chad Mendes (2-1-0)
2015-04-04: W vs. [#8FW] Ricardo Lamas (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1
2014-10-25: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#3P4P] Jose Aldo (25-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-12-14: W vs. [#15FW] Nik Lentz (25-7-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (3-0-0)
2015-01-18: W vs. [#31FW] Dennis Siver (22-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2014-09-27: W vs. [#24LW] Dustin Poirier (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
2014-07-19: W vs. [#41FW] Diego Brandao (19-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chad Mendes 98, Conor McGregor 174
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#9DD/#8P4P] Robbie Lawler (25-10-0, +156) vs. [#3/#10P4P] Rory MacDonald (18-2-0, -186)
Robbie Lawler is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Rory MacDonald is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (3-0-0)
2014-12-06: W vs. [#2WW/#9P4P] Johny Hendricks (17-3-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 49-46)
2014-07-26: W vs. [#11WW] Matt Brown (19-13-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2014-05-24: W vs. [#15WW] Jake Ellenberger (30-9-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:06 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2014-10-04: W vs. [#19WW] Tarec Saffiedine (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:28 of round 3
2014-06-14: W vs. [#4WW] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-02-22: W vs. [#8WW] Demian Maia (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 217, Rory MacDonald 280
Previous Match-up Record: Robbie Lawler leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#14] Dennis Bermudez (14-4-0, -208) vs. [#17] Jeremy Stephens (23-11-0, +171)

Last 3 Fights: Dennis Bermudez (2-1-0)
2014-11-15: L vs. [#8FW] Ricardo Lamas (15-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
2014-07-26: W vs. [#10FW] Clay Guida (32-15-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:57 of round 2
2014-03-15: W vs. [#142FW] Jim Hettes (11-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 2:57 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Stephens (1-2-0)
2014-12-12: L vs. [#7FW] Charles Oliveira (20-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-06-28: L vs. [#9FW] Cub Swanson (21-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2014-01-25: W vs. [#24FW] Darren Elkins (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dennis Bermudez 238, Jeremy Stephens 211
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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UFC Fight Night 70: Machida vs Romero was originally supposed to take place in Brazil, as the finale of ‘The Ultimate Fighter Brazil’ Season 4.  For reasons unknown to me, the event was moved to US some weeks back, and a number of Brazilian fighters scheduled to fight were not able to secure their travel visas in time.   This really played havoc on the fight card – besides losing the ‘TUF’ finalists, the scheduled co-main event between Rick Story and Eric Silva has also been postponed, among with some other changes to the line up.  Fortunately, the main event of Lyoto Machida vs Yoel Romero remained intact, saving the card from being a total dud.

Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Main Event: [#4 MW] Lyoto Machida  vs  [#9 MW] Yoel Romero

Worth: $20

Why: This is a great fight, with significant implications for both opponents as well as the divisional picture.  The 38-year-old former Olympian, Yoel ‘Soldier of God’ Romero rose quickly through the middleweight rankings after his UFC debut.  He has won all five of his UFC bouts, most recent being a somewhat controversial TKO victory over Tim Kennedy.  Besides his world-class wrestling credentials, Romero has very fluid striking and immense stopping power and generally prefers to keep the fight standing, which resulted in all but one of his wins ending in a T/KO.  Romero was twice slated to face off with Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza, but the fight fell through both times due to injuries.  He now takes on a very different breed of beast in Lyoto Machida, and a win here will put him very close to a shot at the title.

Former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida, though a year younger than his opponent, has had a much longer MMA career, and the wear and tear of it may be starting to take a toll on his body. Though he’s been fairly successful since dropping down to 185 lbs, Machida is 6-6 overall since suffering the first loss of his career in a rematch for the 205 lbs with Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua.  In his latest fight, Machida was absolutely decimated by Luke Rockhold; I was very surprised by how one-side the fight was, considering that Lyoto went the distance with the champion Chris Weidman, and was even somewhat competitive against former light heavyweight champ Jon Jones.  Perhaps he just had an off night, or a bad weight cut, or was suffering from an undisclosed injury.  Or maybe Rockhold is just that good.  However there’s always the possibility that Machida is nearing the end of his run as an elite fighter.  This is the quickest turn-around between fights in Lyoto’s UFC career – he is obviously in a rush to put the Rockhold loss behind him and get back on the winning track.

Stylistically, this is a interesting bout.  Romero’s striking based game plan and often porous defense could leave him susceptible to counter strikes, which are Machida’s bread and butter.  Yoel tends to be a slow starter and we’ve seen him get rocked early in several fights, only to be saved by his concrete chin and deep gas tank.  Machida has a clear advantage in striking technique, whereas Romero  has significantly greater power in his hands.  Romero has a wrestling advantage, but mainly uses the threat of takedowns to keep his opponents guessing and as an opportunity to land a fight-ending blow.  When he does score a takedown, he rarely keeps his opponent on the mat for an extended period of time, so I don’t expect the ground game to play a significant role in this fight.  I tend to avoid making predictions, but I’ll go out on a limb here and pick Romero by a late TKO, propelling him into the Top 5 and keeping his win streak alive.

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Middleweight (185)
[#4] Lyoto Machida (22-6-0, 186.0lb, -187) vs. [#9] Yoel Romero (9-1-0, 186.0lb, +158)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #13 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (1-2-0)
2015-04-18: L vs. [#2MW] Luke Rockhold (14-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:31 of round 2
2014-12-20: W vs. [#15MW] C.B. Dollaway (15-7-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:02 of round 1
2014-07-05: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD/#2P4P] Chris Weidman (13-0-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Yoel Romero (3-0-0)
2014-09-27: W vs. [#13MW] Tim Kennedy (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 3
2014-04-19: W vs. [#27MW] Brad Tavares (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-01-15: W vs. [#21MW] Derek Brunson (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:23 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 70, Yoel Romero 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#26] Lorenz Larkin (15-4-0, 170.5lb, -219) vs. [#36] Santiago Ponzinibbio (20-2-0, 170.5lb, +180)

Last 3 Fights: Lorenz Larkin (1-2-0)
2015-01-18: W vs. [#54WW] John Howard (22-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:17 of round 1
2014-08-30: L vs. [#21MW] Derek Brunson (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-05-10: L vs. [#17MW] Costas Philippou (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Santiago Ponzinibbio (2-1-0)
2015-02-22: W vs. [#96WW] Sean Strickland (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-09-13: W vs. [#245WW] Wendell de Oliveira Marqu (24-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:20 of round 1
2013-11-09: L vs. [#25WW] Ryan LaFlare (11-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lorenz Larkin 160, Santiago Ponzinibbio 125
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#55] Eddie Gordon (7-3-0, 184.5lb, +158) vs. [#104LHW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (4-1-0, 185.0lb, -188)

Last 3 Fights: Eddie Gordon (1-2-0)
2015-04-18: L vs. [#53MW] Chris Dempsey (11-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-12-06: L vs. [#30MW] Josh Samman (11-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 3:08 of round 2
2014-07-06: W vs. [#152WW] Dhiego Lima (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:11 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Carlos Jr. (2-1-0)
2014-12-20: L vs. [#44LHW] Patrick Cummins (7-2-0) via UD ()
2014-05-31: W vs. [#103MW] Vitor Miranda (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-10-26: W vs. [NA] Edinaldo Novaes (2-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:16 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Eddie Gordon 70, Antonio Carlos Jr. 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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It’s been a very busy month for UFC, and so far the fights have delivered.  Fight Night 67 had a mix of exciting and boring fights, 68 was outstanding from start to finish, and last weekend’s UFC 188 Pay-Per-View, despite a very weak line-up for a PPV card, had a few fun fights in addition to the amazing main event.  Looks like all this momentum may come to a screeching halt with UFC Fight Night 69: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne.

This is the third Fight Pass exclusive event this year, and the first ever Fight Pass event to feature a title fight.  This historical event will take place in Berlin, Germany and the live broadcast will start at noon (Eastern Time) in US.  Despite featuring a title fight, this is undoubtedly the worst card that the UFC has put on this year so far, even by Fight Pass standards.   In fact it may very well be the weakest UFC card ever, or at least in the Zuffa era. So this write up is going to be quite short, as there are only 2 fights on this card that I’m even moderately interested in.  Beyond the main event and the co-main, there are very few recognizable names or meaningful fights.  Of course all the fights could turn out to be barn-burners, but based on the matchups alone, there’s nothing I would pay to watch besides the two top billed bouts.

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Heavyweight (232)
[*] Kimbo Slice (4-2-0, 232.0lb, -285) vs. [*] Ken Shamrock (28-15-2, 204.4lb, +227)
Ken Shamrock is the All-Time #16 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kimbo Slice (1-2-0)
2010-05-08: L vs. [#16HW+] Matt Mitrione (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:24 of round 2
2009-12-05: W vs. [#78LHW] Houston Alexander (16-11-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2008-10-04: L vs. [*] Seth Petruzelli (14-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:14 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ken Shamrock (1-2-0)
2010-11-25: L vs. [*] Mike Bourke (10-16-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 1
2010-10-16: W vs. [NA] Johnathan Ivey (31-54-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-07-18: L vs. [*] Pedro Rizzo (19-11-0) via TKO (Leg Kicks and Punches) in 3:33 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kimbo Slice 1868, Ken Shamrock 1667
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#4] Patricio Freire (23-2-0, 145.2lb, -281) vs. [#9] Daniel Weichel (35-8-0, 144.5lb, +227)
Patricio Freire is the All-Time #11 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Patricio Freire (3-0-0)
2015-01-16: W vs. [#13FW] Daniel Straus (22-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 4
2014-09-05: W vs. [#11FW] Pat Curran (20-7-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-11-15: W vs. [#39FW] Justin Wilcox (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Weichel (3-0-0)
2015-02-13: W vs. [#11FW] Pat Curran (20-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-05-09: W vs. [#35FW] Desmond Green (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:07 of round 2
2014-03-28: W vs. [#56FW] Matt Bessette (15-6-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Patricio Freire 154, Daniel Weichel 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#23] Michael Chandler (12-3-0, 155.6lb, -560) vs. [#115] Derek Campos (15-4-0, 152.5lb, +405)
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #21 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (0-3-0)
2014-11-15: L vs. [#5LW] Will Brooks (16-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:48 of round 4
2014-05-17: L vs. [#5LW] Will Brooks (16-1-0) via SD (48-46, 48-47, 47-48)
2013-11-02: L vs. [#8LW] Eddie Alvarez (26-4-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)

Last 3 Fights: Derek Campos (2-1-0)
2014-09-26: W vs. [#329FW] Estevan Payan (15-8-0) via TKO (Punch) in 0:31 of round 1
2014-04-18: L vs. [#53LW] Patricky Freire (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:52 of round 2
2014-03-21: W vs. [#286LW] Tim Welch (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Chandler 216, Derek Campos 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Chandler leads 1-0
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Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#2/#6DD/#6P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (9-0-0, 114.0lb, -760) vs. [#8] Jessica Penne (12-2-0, 114.0lb, +526)

Last 3 Fights: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (3-0-0)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#4SW] Carla Esparza (10-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 2
2014-12-13: W vs. [#5SW] Claudia Gadelha (12-1-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-07-26: W vs. [#15SW] Juliana de Lima Carneiro (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Penne (2-1-0)
2014-12-12: W vs. [#12SW] Randa Markos (5-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
2013-07-13: W vs. [#32AW] Nicdali Rivera-Calanoc (8-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:57 of round 1
2013-04-05: L vs. [#3AW] Michelle Waterson (12-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:31 of round 4

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanna Jedrzejczyk 98, Jessica Penne 190
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#26] Dennis Siver (22-10-0, 145.0lb, -176) vs. [#38] Tatsuya Kawajiri (33-8-2, 146.0lb, +149)

Last 3 Fights: Dennis Siver (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2015-01-18: L vs. [#6FW] Conor McGregor (17-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2014-10-04: W vs. [#119FW] Charles Rosa (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-12-28: NC vs. [#10BW] Manny Gamburyan (14-8-0)

Last 3 Fights: Tatsuya Kawajiri (2-1-0)
2014-04-11: L vs. [#12FW] Clay Guida (32-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-01-04: W vs. [#311FW] Sean Soriano (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:50 of round 2
2012-12-31: W vs. [#330FW] Michihiro Omigawa (14-14-1) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dennis Siver 153, Tatsuya Kawajiri 435
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#92] Steven Kennedy (22-6-0, 170.0lb, +223) vs. [#161] Peter Sobotta (14-4-1, 171.0lb, -274)

Last 3 Fights: Steven Kennedy (3-0-0)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#482WW] Callan Potter (8-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:15 of round 1
2014-12-06: W vs. [#679MW] Ran Weathers (17-18-0) via UD ()
2014-05-31: W vs. [#1596WW] Dominic McConnell (7-10-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in ? of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Peter Sobotta (3-0-0)
2014-05-31: W vs. [#175WW] Pawel Pawlak (11-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-11-10: W vs. [#323LW] Tamirlan Dadaev (13-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:10 of round 1
2012-11-10: W vs. [NA] Mustafa Asmaoui (1-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:36 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steven Kennedy 98, Peter Sobotta 385
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Last week, UFC delivered a great event in Fight Night 68.  With almost every fight on the card ending with a spectacular finish, this is a tough act to follow.  Especially when it’s followed by a very weak Pay-Per-View that, save for the headliner, would be much better suited for a free Fight Night or even a Fight Pass event.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event: (C) [NR] Cain Velasquez vs (IC) [#1 HW] Fabricio Werdum for undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Worth: $25

Why: Almost six months and countless UFC events into the year, this is only the second fight to receive my maximum single fight valuation of $25 (the first was Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier at UFC 182).   The reigning UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will fight for the first time in nearly two years, and this will be his first fight since 2010 against an opponent not named Junior dos Santos or Antonio Silva.  This time he will be facing Fabricio Werdum, who has been on a tear: 5-0 in his current UFC stint, and capturing the interim title that UFC created due to Cain’s extended absence in his most recent fight with Mark Hunt.

This is a great title unification fight between #4 and #5 ranked heavyweights of all time.  And the winner is likely to further climb the all time ranking, besides cementing his #1 spot on the current rankings.  Fabricio Werdum has shown amazing improvement in his recent career, and I won’t be surprised to see him defeat Velasquez, especially since ring rust is a very likely factor (last time Velasquez returned to action after an extended layoff, he was knocked out in the first round by dos Santos).  On the other hand, Werdum is a notorious slow starter who tends to absorb some punishment early on, but weathers the storm and takes over later in the fight when his opponent gets tired.  This could be very bad news against a fighter like Velasquez, who goes all out from the opening bell to the end of the last round, and has the cardio to keep the same insane pace in a five round fight.

But I have no horse in this race – there are great matchups in store for the man who walks away with the unified title.  If Cain retains, he will most likely face Stipe Miocic next, with Andrei Arlovski and Ben Rothwell as viable backup options.  If Werdum overcomes, he will probably get an opportunity to avenge the only stoppage loss of his career against JDS.  The heavyweight division is becoming very fun to watch after years of stagnation, even if there is not a single fighter in the Top 10 under 30 and most of the contenders are familiar faces.  Great fight… and it’s all downhill from here.

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Heavyweight Championship (265)
[*] Cain Velasquez (13-1-0, -460) vs. [#1/#10DD/#7P4P] Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1, +357)
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #4 ranked Heavyweight and #17 ranked Absolute fighter.
Fabricio Werdum is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (3-0-0)
2013-10-19: W vs. [#2HW+] Junior dos Santos (17-3-0) via TKO (Slam and Punch) in 3:09 of round 5
2013-05-25: W vs. [#10HW+] Antonio Silva (18-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2012-12-29: W vs. [#2HW+] Junior dos Santos (17-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)

Last 3 Fights: Fabricio Werdum (3-0-0)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#8HW+] Mark Hunt (10-10-1) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:27 of round 2
2014-04-19: W vs. [#6HW+] Travis Browne (17-3-1) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2013-06-08: W vs. [#28HW+] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:41 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cain Velasquez 602, Fabricio Werdum 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cain Velasquez leads 5-2
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Lightweight (155)
[#7] Gilbert Melendez (22-4-0, -177) vs. [#12] Eddie Alvarez (25-4-0, +147)
Gilbert Melendez is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.
Eddie Alvarez is the All-Time #11 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Melendez (1-2-0)
2014-12-06: L vs. [#3LW] Anthony Pettis (18-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:53 of round 2
2013-10-19: W vs. [#25LW] Diego Sanchez (25-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2013-04-20: L vs. [#4LW] Ben Henderson (22-5-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)

Last 3 Fights: Eddie Alvarez (2-1-0)
2014-09-27: L vs. [#2LW] Donald Cerrone (28-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-11-02: W vs. [#23LW] Michael Chandler (12-3-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 47-48)
2012-10-12: W vs. [#52LW] Patricky Freire (13-6-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gilbert Melendez 189, Eddie Alvarez 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gilbert Melendez leads 3-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#13] Kelvin Gastelum (10-1-0, -409) vs. [#32] Nate Marquardt (33-14-2, +310)
Nate Marquardt is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2015-01-31: L vs. [#4WW] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#15WW] Jake Ellenberger (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 1
2014-06-28: W vs. [#39WW] Nicholas Musoke (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Marquardt (1-2-0)
2015-01-03: L vs. [#27MW] Brad Tavares (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-06-28: W vs. [#137MW] James Te Huna (16-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:34 of round 1
2013-10-19: L vs. [#5WW] Hector Lombard (34-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:48 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 133, Nate Marquardt 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Last week’s UFC Fight Night 67 : Condit vs Alves delivered a mixed bag, with several fun fights and great finishes mixed in with a couple of nearly unwatchable clinch-fests and Ryan Jimmo puking in a bucket in what was likely his last Octagon appearance.   Another weekend, another fight night coming up.  Let’s see what this one looks like on paper (or your screen, to be precise).

Main Event: [#17 MW] Dan Henderson vs  [#20 MW] Tim Boetsch

Worth: $5

Why: These types of fights make me sad.  Here we have a 44-year old legend of the sport, the only regret of his storied career being the failure to win UFC gold in the post-tournament era.  He’s only won one fight in his past six; more concerningly, he has been stopped in his last three losses.  Granted, all these fights have been against the cream of the crop at middleweight, light heavyweight, and even heavyweight fighters.  Now in his second fight back at 185 lbs, Henderson is taking on Tim Boetsch – a tough, high-level journeyman brawler.  The last time ‘Hendo’ fought fighters of that level were his matchups with Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral and Rafael ‘Feijao’ Cavalcante back in Strikeforce.  And while he disposed of them handily, I don’t think he will have as easy of a time with Boetsch.

Four years is a long time for a fighter in his forties who is coming off a TRT regiment.   While Henderson is a decorated wrestler, his best attributes as an MMA fighter have always been a rock solid chin, and a nuclear warhead of a right hand, aptly nicknamed ‘The H-Bomb’.  After his last few fights, the legendary chin has been showing a few cracks, and while the H-Bomb is as powerful as ever, deteriorating hand speed and reflexes mean that Hendo will have fewer opportunities to plant it on his opponents.  Boetsch is a big step down in competition compared to Henderson’s most recent UFC stint, but he is still a very dangerous opponent, and Dan should hang up the gloves for good if he can’t get past Tim.

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Middleweight (185)
[#17] Dan Henderson (30-13-0, +163) vs. [#20] Tim Boetsch (18-8-0, -194)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (1-2-0)
2015-01-24: L vs. [#5MW] Gegard Mousasi (37-5-2) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2014-05-24: L vs. [#2LHW/#6DD/#5P4P] Daniel Cormier (16-1-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 3
2014-03-23: W vs. [#16LHW] Mauricio Rua (22-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:31 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Tim Boetsch (1-2-0)
2015-01-31: L vs. [#8MW] Thales Leites (25-4-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:45 of round 2
2014-08-16: W vs. [#27MW] Brad Tavares (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 2
2014-04-26: L vs. [#2MW] Luke Rockhold (14-2-0) via Submission (Inverted Triangle Kimura) in 2:08 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Henderson 133, Tim Boetsch 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#9] Ben Rothwell (34-9-0, +160) vs. [#12] Matt Mitrione (9-3-0, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2014-09-05: W vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (39-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 1
2013-08-31: W vs. [#66HW+] Brandon Vera (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 1:54 of round 3
2013-01-19: L vs. [#33HW+] Gabriel Gonzaga (16-10-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:01 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (3-0-0)
2014-12-13: W vs. [#33HW+] Gabriel Gonzaga (16-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:59 of round 1
2014-09-05: W vs. [#55HW+] Derrick Lewis (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1
2014-03-01: W vs. [#35HW+] Shawn Jordan (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 274, Matt Mitrione 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#25] Dustin Poirier (17-4-0, -187) vs. [#80] Yancy Medeiros (11-2-0, +158)

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2015-04-04: W vs. [#62LW] Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:45 of round 1
2014-09-27: L vs. [#6FW] Conor McGregor (17-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
2014-04-16: W vs. [*] Akira Corassani (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Yancy Medeiros (2-1-0)
2014-12-12: W vs. [#121LW] Joe Proctor (10-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:37 of round 1
2014-08-30: W vs. [#136FW] Damon Jackson (9-2-0) via Submission (Reverse Bulldog Choke) in 1:54 of round 2
2014-04-26: L vs. [#35LW] Jim Miller (24-6-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:18 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 63, Yancy Medeiros 176
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Coming off an excellent UFC 187 Pay-Per-View, Ultimate Fighting Championship has a busy schedule for the remainder of May and June, with a fight card every weekend for the next 5 weeks.  Inevitably, this means that the talent will be spread thin among so many events, especially considering the number of stars who fought last week.  There are still a few interesting fights on the next upcoming event, so without further ado, let’s take a look at UFC Fight Night 67: Alves vs Condit – broadcast live from Brazil on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Main Event: [#12 WW] Carlos Condit  vs [#14 WW] Thiago Alves

Worth: $15

Why: The careers of our welterweight main event participants have followed an oddly similar path.  Both are 31 years old and have been fighting professionally for over a decade.  Both are Muay Thai stylists with significant fight-ending power in their limbs (though Condit is the more versed of the two in the ground game).  Both peaked around 2008, when Condit was the long-reigning WEC welterweight champion, whereas Alves has accumulated seven consecutive wins in the UFC, earning a shot at then champion Georges St. Pierre.  One might say that it was all downhill from there for both fighters:  Alves was battered for five rounds by GSP in a one-sided affair, after which he managed only a 2-3 record before taking a two year long break from the sport due to injuries.  Around the same time, Condit entered the UFC as a part of WEC merger, and had his sights set on the gold but suffered a controversial split decision loss to Martin Kampmann in his Octagon debut.  He did eventually earn his shot at St. Pierre, but didn’t fare much better than Alves, losing a decision despite getting a near finish in the fourth round.

In 2015, it’s not exactly clear where either fighter stands in the wide open post-GSP division.  Thiago Alves made a successful return after his injury, scoring a decision over Seth Baczynski, then stopping Jordan Mein after overcoming some adversity early in the fight.  Condit has been on a layoff of his own, after injuring his knee in a loss to Tyron Woodley, and will be looking to regain his place as a contender.  The winner of this fight will be edging into the title picture, alongside Johnny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley.  The loser will likely be relegated into the ‘aging gatekeeper’ territory.  Either way, this promises to be an exciting battle of two of the most feared welterweight strikers.

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Welterweight (170)
[#12] Carlos Condit (29-8-0) vs. [#14] Thiago Alves (21-9-0)
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #5 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Thiago Alves is the All-Time #12 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (1-2-0)
2014-03-15: L vs. [#4WW] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:00 of round 2
2013-08-28: W vs. [*] Martin Kampmann (20-7-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 0:54 of round 4
2013-03-16: L vs. [#2WW/#9DD/#9P4P] Johny Hendricks (17-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Alves (2-1-0)
2015-01-31: W vs. [#23WW] Jordan Mein (29-10-0) via KO (Kick to the Body) in 0:39 of round 2
2014-04-19: W vs. [#134WW] Seth Baczynski (19-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-03-03: L vs. [*] Martin Kampmann (20-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Condit 441, Thiago Alves 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlos Condit leads 2-1
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Featherweight (145)
[#10] Nik Lentz (25-6-2) vs. [#12] Charles Oliveira (19-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Nik Lentz (2-1-0)
2014-05-10: W vs. [#9BW] Manny Gamburyan (14-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-12-14: L vs. [#3FW] Chad Mendes (17-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-05-18: W vs. [#18FW] Hacran Dias (22-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (3-0-0)
2014-12-12: W vs. [#17FW] Jeremy Stephens (23-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-06-28: W vs. [#106FW] Hatsu Hioki (27-9-2) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:32 of round 2
2014-02-15: W vs. [#255FW] Andy Ogle (9-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:40 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nik Lentz 385, Charles Oliveira 169
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#55LW] K.J. Noons (13-7-0) vs. [#328LW] Alex Oliveira (10-2-1)

Last 3 Fights: K.J. Noons (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2014-12-12: NC vs. [#56LW] Daron Cruickshank (16-6-0)
2014-04-16: W vs. [#139LW] Sam Stout (20-11-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 1
2013-10-19: W vs. [#363LW] George Sotiropoulos (14-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Oliveira (2-1-0)
2015-03-21: L vs. [#44LW] Gilbert Burns (10-0-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:14 of round 3
2015-02-21: W vs. [#660WW] Joilton Santos (9-4-0) via UD ()
2014-10-18: W vs. [#1486WW] Douglas Aparecido (5-7-0) via TKO in 2:52 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: K.J. Noons 169, Alex Oliveira 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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UFC has had a lot of ups and downs in 2015 so far.   After a fairly successful first quarter in terms of TV ratings and Pay-Per-View buy numbers, the promotion hit another rough patch: cards falling apart due to injuries, controversial Reebok sponsorship deal which left many fighters unhappy, and legal issues faced by the company as well as certain fighters.  Nonetheless, the line-up they put together for UFC 187 looked to be the most stacked card since UFC 100 (and arguably the best in the organization history).  Of course the MMA gods didn’t spare this great card: light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, who was slated to defend his title against Anthony Johnson, was stripped of the belt and suspended from UFC due to a series of poor decisions on his part, and a lightweight title eliminator bout between two top contenders fell apart when Khabib Nurmagomedov suffered an injury and pulled out of his fight against Donald Cerrone.  Despite these losses, UFC 187 had such a strong line-up that it still remains an amazing card, and will be one of the rare PPV events worth the asking price.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event: [#2 LHW] Anthony Johnson vs [#3 LHW] Daniel Cormier for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Worth: $20

Why: If the original main event of Jon Jones vs Anthony Johnson had gone on as planned, it would have been the second UFC fight this year to receive my max valuation of $25 (the first and only one so far was Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier at UFC 182).  The replacement bout of ‘Rumble’ Johnson vs Daniel Cormier is still a great fight, but let’s not kid ourselves: the winner of this fight will be a paper champion unless Jon Jones receives a lengthy prison term for his shenanigans, or decides to walk away from the sport.  I am looking forward to Cormier-Johnson, and really this was the best fight UFC could have made under the circumstances, but I can’t help the feeling that the winner of this fight will be just keeping the belt warm for Jones’ eventual return.

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