Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#2/#8DD/#7P4P] Daniel Cormier (16-1-0) vs. [#7] Alexander Gustafsson (16-3-0)
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Alexander Gustafsson is the All-Time #15 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (2-1-0)
2015-05-23: W vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:39 of round 3
2015-01-03: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2014-05-24: W vs. [#10MW] Dan Henderson (31-13-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (1-2-0)
2015-01-24: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (20-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1
2014-03-08: W vs. [#14LHW] Jimi Manuwa (15-2-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:18 of round 2
2013-09-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Cormier 133, Alexander Gustafsson 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Daniel Cormier leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#2/#10P4P] Johny Hendricks (17-3-0) vs. [#4] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0)
Johny Hendricks is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Johny Hendricks (2-1-0)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#9WW] Matt Brown (20-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-12-06: L vs. [#1WW/#7DD/#6P4P] Robbie Lawler (26-10-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 49-46)
2014-03-15: W vs. [#1WW/#7DD/#6P4P] Robbie Lawler (26-10-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Tyron Woodley (2-1-0)
2015-01-31: W vs. [#12MW] Kelvin Gastelum (11-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-08-23: W vs. [#10WW] Dong Hyun Kim (20-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:01 of round 1
2014-06-14: L vs. [#3WW] Rory MacDonald (18-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johny Hendricks 203, Tyron Woodley 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#4] Ryan Bader (19-4-0) vs. [*] Rashad Evans (21-3-1)
Ryan Bader is the All-Time #20 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Bader (3-0-0)
2015-01-24: W vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (15-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-08-16: W vs. [#12LHW] Ovince St. Preux (18-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2014-06-14: W vs. [#40LHW] Rafael Cavalcante (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (2-1-0)
2013-11-16: W vs. [*] Chael Sonnen (28-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1
2013-06-15: W vs. [#10MW] Dan Henderson (31-13-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#16LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Bader 252, Rashad Evans 686
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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UFC Fight Night 75 will take place at the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan and is the finale for the ‘Road to UFC: Japan’ series, which is a re-branded version of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’.  As one might expect, the card is loaded with local talent, and would make for a good Fight Pass event; however September has been a slow month compared to UFC’s hectic summer pace, with Fight Night 75 being the only event this month besides the UFC 191 PPV.   So we end up with a passable main card on Fox Sports 1, and a very weak preliminary card on Fox Sports 2. There was a lone early prelim fight slated for Fight Pass, but with a last-minute cancellation of the scheduled fight between Matt Hobar and Norifumi ‘Kid’ Yamamoto, the top-billed FS2 prelim was moved to FS1 and the Fight Pass bout bumped up to FS2.  Which leaves us with nothing of note on the prelims, so I will just go over the main card.

Main Event: [#15 HW] Roy Nelson vs [NR] Josh Barnett

Worth: $10

Why: This is sort of an odd match-up.  It’s as if the UFC doesn’t really know what to do with either of these heavyweights at the moment, so let’s make them coaches on ‘Road to UFC: Japan’, and have them fight each other in the main event of the finale.  Beyond that the fight makes little sense, and there is not much on the line here, besides maybe the winner holding on to the remaining bit of relevancy.  Roy Nelson is on a two fight skid, and only won one out of his last five bouts, but even with a loss he is likely to get at least one more fight in UFC. His opponent Josh Barnett has not fought in nearly two years, and is 1-1 in his recent UFC stint, with both fights ending by TKO in the first round and not really showing how much Barnett has left in the tank.

We all know exactly what Roy Nelson will do in every fight, so to me the most interesting thing about this one is what strategy will Barnett use against him. Submissions are Barnett’s bread and butter, however Nelson has a very competent ground game.  Even though he completely abandoned it in favor of winging overhand rights and uppercuts, he has gone the distance with Frank Mir and Fabricio Werdum – two of the most dangerous submission experts at HW – and was never in any trouble on the ground despite losing both fights.  So it’s not likely that Barnett will be able to submit Nelson; a knockout is also unlikely as Roy has a solid chin and Josh is not known for his KO power.  The best strategy for Barnett would be to use his ugly yet effective striking to outpoint Nelson, as so many of his opponents have done before.  However, Barnett claims that he wants a finish and not a win on points, and going blow-for-blow with Nelson is generally not a good idea.  My pick here is Barnett by decision – unless he gets caught with a big shot early, or is very out of shape due to ring rust.  What I don’t expect is a particularly exciting fight (barring that possibility of an early KO by Nelson).

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Heavyweight (265)
[#15] Roy Nelson (20-11-0, +189) vs. [*] Josh Barnett (33-7-0, -231)
Josh Barnett is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (1-2-0)
2015-03-14: L vs. [#8HW+] Alistair Overeem (39-14-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-09-20: L vs. [#9HW+] Mark Hunt (10-10-1) via KO (Punch) in 3:00 of round 2
2014-04-11: W vs. [*] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-10-1) via KO (Punch) in 3:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Josh Barnett (2-1-0)
2013-12-28: L vs. [#7HW+] Travis Browne (17-3-1) via KO (Elbows) in 1:00 of round 1
2013-08-31: W vs. [#10HW+] Frank Mir (18-10-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:56 of round 1
2013-01-12: W vs. [*] Nandor Guelmino (11-5-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:11 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 196, Josh Barnett 637
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Josh Barnett leads 4-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#5] Gegard Mousasi (37-5-2) vs. [#32] Uriah Hall (11-5-0)
Gegard Mousasi is the All-Time #16 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gegard Mousasi (2-1-0)
2015-05-16: W vs. [*] Costas Philippou (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2015-01-24: W vs. [#9MW] Dan Henderson (31-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2014-09-05: L vs. [#4MW] Ronaldo Souza (22-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (2-1-0)
2015-08-08: W vs. [#281MW] Oluwale Bamgbose (5-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 1
2015-05-23: L vs. [#23MW] Rafael Natal (20-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2015-01-18: W vs. [#152MW] Ron Stallings (13-7-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:37 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gegard Mousasi 133, Uriah Hall 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gegard Mousasi leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#8] Kyoji Horiguchi (15-2-0) vs. [#17] Chico Camus (15-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Kyoji Horiguchi (2-1-0)
2015-04-25: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Demetrious Johnson (23-2-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:59 of round 5
2015-01-03: W vs. [#47FLY] Louis Gaudinot (7-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-09-20: W vs. [#131FLY] Jon delos Reyes (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Chico Camus (1-2-0)
2015-06-13: L vs. [#5FLY] Henry Cejudo (9-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2014-11-22: W vs. [#58BW] Brad Pickett (24-11-0) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 29-28)
2014-05-24: L vs. [*] Chris Holdsworth (6-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyoji Horiguchi 154, Chico Camus 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Liam McGeary (10-0-0) vs. [#12] Tito Ortiz (19-11-1)
Tito Ortiz is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Liam McGeary (3-0-0)
2015-02-27: W vs. [#14LHW] Emanuel Newton (25-8-1) via UD (48-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2014-09-12: W vs. [#45LHW] Kelly Anundson (9-3-0) via Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke) in 4:47 of round 1
2014-07-25: W vs. [#95LHW] Egidijus Valavicius (28-11-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 2:10 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tito Ortiz (2-1-0)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#66LHW] Stephan Bonnar (15-9-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2014-05-17: W vs. [#27MW] Alexander Shlemenko (51-9-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:27 of round 1
2012-07-07: L vs. [*] Forrest Griffin (19-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Liam McGeary 204, Tito Ortiz 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#15] Josh Thomson (20-8-0) vs. [#105] Mike Bronzoulis (18-8-1)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Thomson (0-3-0)
2015-07-15: L vs. [#5LW] Tony Ferguson (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2014-07-26: L vs. [#18LW] Bobby Green (23-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-01-25: L vs. [#13WW] Ben Henderson (22-5-0) via SD (49-46, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Bronzoulis (3-0-0)
2015-05-08: W vs. [#157LW] Dave Burrow (13-6-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2015-02-27: W vs. [#302LW] Jonathan Harris (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:43 of round 1
2014-11-14: W vs. [#750LW] Justin Reiswerg (8-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:51 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Thomson 66, Mike Bronzoulis 134
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Phil Davis (13-3-0) vs. [#14] Emanuel Newton (25-8-1)
Phil Davis is the All-Time #17 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (1-2-0)
2015-01-24: L vs. [#4LHW] Ryan Bader (19-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-10-25: W vs. [#6LHW] Glover Teixeira (23-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-04-26: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Emanuel Newton (2-1-0)
2015-02-27: L vs. [#10LHW] Liam McGeary (10-0-0) via UD (48-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2014-10-24: W vs. [#24LHW] Linton Vassell (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:47 of round 5
2014-09-12: W vs. [#37MW] Joey Beltran (16-11-0) via KO (Spinning Back Fist) in 3:07 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Phil Davis 238, Emanuel Newton 204
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Tonya Evinger (16-5-0) vs. [#15] Pannie Kianzad (8-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Tonya Evinger (3-0-0)
2015-07-09: W vs. [#25BW] Irene Aldana (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 4
2014-12-05: W vs. [#64BW] Cindy Dandois (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:23 of round 2
2014-09-06: W vs. [#50BW] Ediane Gomes (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Pannie Kianzad (3-0-0)
2015-07-09: W vs. [#37BW] Jessica-Rose Clark (5-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#95FLY] Eeva Siiskonen (3-3-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2014-08-22: W vs. [NA] Megan van Houtum (1-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:17 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tonya Evinger 65, Pannie Kianzad 65
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#6] DeAnna Bennett (7-0-0) vs. [#18] Katja Kankaanpaa (10-2-1)

Last 3 Fights: DeAnna Bennett (3-0-0)
2015-02-27: W vs. [#65SW] Norma Rueda Center (3-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-12-05: W vs. [#3FLY] Jennifer Maia (10-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-09-06: W vs. [#53BW] Michelle Ould (7-4-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:34 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Katja Kankaanpaa (2-1-0)
2015-04-24: L vs. [#4SW] Livia Renata Souza (8-0-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:58 of round 4
2014-09-06: W vs. [#53SW] Stephanie Eggink (4-2-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:03 of round 5
2014-05-17: W vs. [#17AW] Alyona Rassohyna (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:49 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: DeAnna Bennett 197, Katja Kankaanpaa 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#35BW] Mariana Morais (9-2-0) vs. [#9] Roxanne Modafferi (17-12-0)
Roxanne Modafferi is the All-Time #13 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mariana Morais (3-0-0)
2014-12-20: W vs. [#101FLY] Marta Souza (2-7-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:04 of round 2
2014-12-03: W vs. [NA] Cristina Mejia (1-4-0) via UD ()
2014-11-15: W vs. [#61BW] Stephanie Bragayrac (5-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in ? of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Roxanne Modafferi (2-1-0)
2015-04-24: L vs. [#2FLY] Vanessa Porto (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-12-05: W vs. [#51FLY] Andrea Lee (2-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2014-09-06: W vs. [#14FLY] Tara LaRosa (22-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mariana Morais 266, Roxanne Modafferi 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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For the tenth Pay-Per-View event of the year, the UFC has come up with a great main event and a very good co-main.  Beyond that, the quality of the main card matchups drops very quickly.  On the plus side, there are a couple of interesting fights on the Fox Sports 1 prelims.  There is also Joe Riggs vs Ron Stallings on the Fight Pass prelims… if you’re into that kind of thing.  Let’s get on with it:

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event:  (C) [#1 FLW] Demetrious Johnson vs [#4 FLW] John Dodson

Worth: $22.50

Why: Despite this being a rematch, it is undoubtedly the best flyweight fight you could ask for at the moment: John ‘The Magician’ Dodson gave Demetrious Johnson his toughest fight since ‘Mighty Mouse’ won the title, and even though Dodson lost a unanimous decision, he managed to do some damage – even scoring a couple of knockdowns on the champion.  Dodson is the only fighter in the division who can match Johnson’s speed and athleticism, and holds an edge in striking power.  The only thing stopping me from giving this fight the max valuation of $25 is the fact that Johnson has seemingly improved in every fight, racking up five additional title defenses since his first encounter with Dodson, and finishing four of his challengers.  Meanwhile Dodson has been plagued by injuries, fought infrequently, and has not shown any signficant improvements in his game.  Unless Dodson can hurt Demetrious early and capitalize on it unlike last time, I see the rematch going much like their first fight – with Mighty Mouse taking home another decision by being the more active fighter if nothing else.

Co-Main Event:  [#4 HW] Andrei Arlovski vs [#10 HW] Frank Mir

Worth: $15

Why: The heavyweight division is in a weird state in 2015: there is not a single fighter in the Top 10 under 30 (30-year-old Junior dos Santos being the youngest), and most of the names near the top of the division are the same guys who ruled the roost ten years ago.  With Fabricio Werdum winning the heavyweight title, and rumors of Fedor Emelianenko returning from retirement and signing a UFC contract afloat, this has truly been the year of comeback for aging heavyweights.  Our co-main event competitors, both former UFC champions of the decade past, are prime examples of this heavyweight resurrection.

Andrei Arlovski’s name has been tossed around as one of the most likely contenders for Werdum’s title, but for some inexplicable reason UFC decided to give an immediate rematch to Cain Velasquez instead.  While Werdum-Velasquez II is a nonsensical fight at this point in time, it still leaves room for some very interesting matchups in the division.  It’s a bit of a surprise that Arlovski and Mir have not met in the Octagon before, but late is better than never, and with both fighter coming off impressive back-to-back knockout victories this is promising to be a great fight.  Something is holding me back from valuing this fight a bit higher though: a few nagging memories in the back of my mind of the tentative versions of Arlovski and Mir, rather than the ‘swing for the fences’ version that we’ve seen in their recent fights.   Past bouts like Arlovski vs Brendan Schaub, Werdum, or his third fight with Tim Sylvia… or Mir’s fights with Alistair Overeem, Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic, Dan Christison… all make me consider the remote but distinct possibility that we might be in for a dance contest rather than a fight.  But I’m going to put away the ancient memories and hope for the best: two well-matured contenders colliding in a blaze of glory, with the winner perhaps getting another shot at the gold.

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Anthony Johnson Vs. Jimi Manuwa. Why?

What is the idea behind this match-up?

Anthony Johnson looked amazing in his last three victories, overcoming the high-level wrestling of Phil Davis and destroying Rogerio Nogueira and Alexander Gustafsson – all top level Light-Heavyweights, and then looked very good against Daniel Cormier, knocking him down in the first round before succumbing to his overall superior game. I think everybody is very interested in seeing him face some other top light-heavyweight at this point.

Jimi Manuwa has looked pretty good up until a few fights ago, but he hasn’t looked devastatingly good.  He then lost to Gustafsson, and won a boring decision against top-20 (at the time) Blachowicz. What has he done to deserve such a highly ranked opponent as Johnson? And this is not the first time: Manuwa got Gustafsson when Gustafsson was the top contender slated to rematch Jon Jones after their close fight.  It was a very strange match-up then, even though he was undefeated at the time, and it’s a stranger match-up now, after his last two unimpressive performances.

What will the MMA world gain from this fight?  If Johnson would win, as he is expected to, everything would remain the same as it is now. Johnson would remain the number one contender; Manuwa would remain where he is ranked, and nothing would change. I suppose this could be a tune-up fight for Johnson for another shot at Daniel Cormier, but do we really want to see that rematch so quickly? Cormier beat him pretty definitively, and they both have many other top level opponents they haven’t faced, so why make this rematch now? This couldn’t be a tune-up fight for Johnson to face Jon Jones, because when ‘Bones’ returns he would obviously rematch Cormier for the undisputed title.

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Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#6DD/#4P4P] Demetrious Johnson (22-2-1) vs. [#4] John Dodson (17-6-0)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #2 ranked Flyweight fighter.
John Dodson is the All-Time #8 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (3-0-0)
2015-04-25: W vs. [#11FLY] Kyoji Horiguchi (15-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:59 of round 5
2014-09-27: W vs. [#26FLY] Chris Cariaso (17-8-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:29 of round 2
2014-06-14: W vs. [#14FLY] Ali Bagautinov (13-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: John Dodson (3-0-0)
2015-05-23: W vs. [#6FLY] Zach Makovsky (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-06-07: W vs. [#12FLY] John Moraga (16-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2013-10-19: W vs. [#119FLY] Darrell Montague (13-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 133, John Dodson 105
Previous Match-up Record: Demetrious Johnson leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: John Dodson leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Andrei Arlovski (24-10-0) vs. [#10] Frank Mir (18-9-0)
Andrei Arlovski is the All-Time #12 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Frank Mir is the All-Time #13 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Andrei Arlovski (3-0-0)
2015-05-23: W vs. [#7HW+] Travis Browne (17-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:41 of round 1
2014-09-13: W vs. [#11HW+] Antonio Silva (19-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 1
2014-06-14: W vs. [#24HW+] Brendan Schaub (10-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Frank Mir (2-1-0)
2015-07-15: W vs. [#34HW+] Todd Duffee (9-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:13 of round 1
2015-02-22: W vs. [#11HW+] Antonio Silva (19-7-1) via KO (Elbows) in 1:40 of round 1
2014-02-01: L vs. [#8HW+] Alistair Overeem (39-14-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andrei Arlovski 105, Frank Mir 52
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Andrei Arlovski leads 5-3
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Anthony Johnson (19-5-0) vs. [#13] Jimi Manuwa (15-1-0)
Anthony Johnson is the All-Time #19 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Johnson (2-1-0)
2015-05-23: L vs. [#2LHW/#8DD/#7P4P] Daniel Cormier (16-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:39 of round 3
2015-01-24: W vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1
2014-07-26: W vs. [#16LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jimi Manuwa (2-1-0)
2015-04-11: W vs. [#21LHW] Jan Blachowicz (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-03-08: L vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (16-3-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:18 of round 2
2013-10-26: W vs. [#35LHW] Ryan Jimmo (19-5-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 4:41 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Johnson 105, Jimi Manuwa 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Johnson leads 1-0
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This summer has been a never-ending marathon of UFC events, and the lack of one last week was a welcome break from the non-stop scheduling. This weekend, we’re back in action with a Sunday night fight card: UFC Fight Night 74 – Holloway vs Oliveira.  The event takes place in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada and will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1 (along with two fairly meaningless fights on UFC Fight Pass).  The main event is an excellent top contender bout between two young featherweight prospects, and there are a few other interesting bouts on the card, to make for a very solid Fight Night line-up.

Main Event:  [#6 FW] Max Holloway vs [#7 FW] Charles Oliveira

Worth: $20

Why: I have been, at best, lukewarm on the featherweight division in the recent years as Jose Aldo decimated every contender put in front of him and was starting on the rematch circuit.  Fortunately, some much needed new blood has been recently injected into the Top 10.   With the interim champion Conor McGregor bringing a lot of eyes to the division, the title unification match between McGregor and Aldo scheduled for UFC 194 is certain to be one of the most hyped fights of the year.  And the winner of Holloway vs Oliveira will most likely have to face the currently idle Frankie Edgar for the next shot at the title.

Besides the title implications, this fight is a great matchup of styles between two young and hungry contenders. At 23 years old, Max Holloway is already 9-3 in the Octagon, winning six in a row since his decision loss to McGregor two years ago.  Holloway fights often (four times in 2014, and on his third fight this year) and seems to be improving with every bout.   Primarily a striker, Holloway has a couple of submission wins under his belt – including one in his most recent fight against Cub Swanson.  However he is unlikely to match his opponent’s skills on the ground, and would be wise to keep this fight standing.  Charles ‘do Bronx’ Oliveira is another young veteran – 25 years old with an 8-4 (1 NC) record in the UFC.  Oliveira is a grappling wizard, though his striking defense and chin have been questionable at times; he is also coming into this fight on a four win streak.  This matchup will come down to who is able to better impose their will on the opponent and keep the fight in their comfort zone.

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Featherweight (145)
[#6] Max Holloway (13-3-0) vs. [#7] Charles Oliveira (20-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (3-0-0)
2015-04-18: W vs. [#10FW] Cub Swanson (21-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:58 of round 3
2015-02-14: W vs. [#44FW] Cole Miller (21-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-10-04: W vs. [*] Akira Corassani (12-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (3-0-0)
2015-05-30: W vs. [#15FW] Nik Lentz (25-7-2) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:10 of round 3
2014-12-12: W vs. [#9FW] Jeremy Stephens (24-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-06-28: W vs. [#114FW] Hatsu Hioki (27-9-2) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:32 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 127, Charles Oliveira 85
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#19] Erick Silva (18-5-0) vs. [#27] Neil Magny (15-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Erick Silva (2-1-0)
2015-03-21: W vs. [#126WW] Josh Koscheck (17-10-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:21 of round 1
2014-12-20: W vs. [#242WW] Mike Rhodes (5-4-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:15 of round 1
2014-05-10: L vs. [#9WW] Matt Brown (20-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (2-1-0)
2015-08-01: L vs. [#7WW] Demian Maia (21-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:52 of round 2
2015-05-16: W vs. [#70WW] Hyun Gyu Lim (13-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:24 of round 2
2015-02-14: W vs. [#120WW] Kiichi Kunimoto (18-6-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:22 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Erick Silva 155, Neil Magny 22
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#30] Josh Burkman (27-11-0) vs. [#47] Patrick Cote (21-9-0)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Burkman (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2015-05-23: L vs. [#10WW] Dong Hyun Kim (20-3-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:13 of round 3
2015-01-03: NC vs. [#6WW] Hector Lombard (34-4-1)
2014-03-29: W vs. [#50WW] Tyler Stinson (29-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Patrick Cote (2-1-0)
2015-04-25: W vs. [#179WW] Joe Riggs (40-16-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-09-27: L vs. [#14WW] Stephen Thompson (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-04-16: W vs. [#100WW] Kyle Noke (21-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Burkman 92, Patrick Cote 120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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After a rather mediocre (both on paper and in the cage) UFC 190 Pay-Per-View last week, the UFC is following up with a strong Fight Night event.  This one has a couple of fights with significance to the divisional Top 10 standings, a few developing prospects, and some fun matchups.  All of the main card fights are very closely matched, which is always a good thing.  The prelims will be broadcast on Fox Sports 2 and UFC Fight Pass network; however there is not much on the prelims worth writing about, so I will just focus on the Fox Sports 1 main card.

Main Event:  [#7 LHW] Glover Teixeira vs [#9 LHW] Ovince St. Preux

Worth: $15

Why: Glover Teixeira has been a big name on the international MMA scene for many years prior to making his UFC debut, which was long delayed due to visa issues.  After finally making his way to UFC, Teixeira started off by winning five straight, which earned him a shot at the champion Jon Jones.  Teixeira fell short in his bid at the title, and there is no shame in losing to Jones. However he dropped an uninspiring decision to Phil Davis in his next fight, which brought up all sorts of questions about the 35-year-old’s ability to improve his game and adapt to fighting wrestlers at this stage of his career.

Though Ovince ‘OSP’ St. Preux has wrestling as his base, he does not solely rely on it in the cage: OSP has significant KO power and decent submission grappling ability, which makes him a very dangerous opponent for any light heavyweight.  The Strikeforce veteran is 6-1 in the UFC, his sole loss an ugly decision to Ryan Bader, and has stopped all but one of his UFC opponents.  After knocking out Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua and Patrick Cummins in back-to-back fights, OSP will get an opportunity to rise further in the rankings and work his way up to a contender status.  On paper, St. Preux has the skill set to defeat the seemingly fading Teixeira, though Glover’s punching power cannot be counted out.  This has all the makings of an exiciting matchup with potential implications for the title picture in the rather shallow 205 lbs weight class.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#7] Glover Teixeira (22-4-0) vs. [#9] Ovince St. Preux (18-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (1-2-0)
2014-10-25: L vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-04-26: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2013-09-04: W vs. [#4LHW] Ryan Bader (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:55 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (2-1-0)
2015-04-18: W vs. [#32LHW] Patrick Cummins (8-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:54 of round 1
2014-11-08: W vs. [#10LHW] Mauricio Rua (23-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 1
2014-08-16: L vs. [#4LHW] Ryan Bader (19-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 287, Ovince St. Preux 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Glover Teixeira leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#7] Michael Johnson (16-8-0) vs. [#14] Beneil Dariush (11-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Johnson (3-0-0)
2015-02-22: W vs. [#12LW] Edson Barboza (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-03-08: W vs. [#28LW] Melvin Guillard (32-14-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2013-12-28: W vs. [#29LW] Gleison Tibau (32-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Beneil Dariush (3-0-0)
2015-04-18: W vs. [#31LW] Jim Miller (25-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#71LW] Daron Cruickshank (16-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:48 of round 2
2014-10-25: W vs. [#61LW] Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Johnson 167, Beneil Dariush 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#20] Derek Brunson (13-3-0) vs. [#25] Sam Alvey (26-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Derek Brunson (2-1-0)
2015-01-31: W vs. [#46MW] Ed Herman (22-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 1
2014-08-30: W vs. [#18WW] Lorenz Larkin (16-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-01-15: L vs. [#3MW] Yoel Romero (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:23 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Sam Alvey (3-0-0)
2015-05-10: W vs. [#88MW] Daniel Kelly (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2015-02-22: W vs. [#152WW] Cezar Ferreira (8-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:34 of round 1
2014-11-07: W vs. [#181MW] Dylan Andrews (17-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derek Brunson 189, Sam Alvey 90
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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No rest for the weary MMA fans!  After putting on five events in July, UFC is rolling in a new month with another Pay-Per-View.  This one is somewhat of an oddity, for several reasons.  First, it’s the only UFC PPV to feature seven bouts on the main card.  The reason for deviating from the usual five fights on a PPV card are the two ‘TUF: Brazil’ finale fights, originally slated to take place at UFC Fight Night 70.  Besides the TUF bouts, this card features an interesting mix of the ‘old school’ nostalgia-type bouts, and the ‘new school’ WMMA.  I normally don’t valuate women’s bouts highly, however this will be the first time they are valuated on par (or higher) with the men’s fights on the same card.  This is partially caused by WMMA starting to grow on me as the UFC develops the women’s bantamweight and strawweight divisions.  Even though they are still very shallow and good matchups are hard to find, here we have two bouts that I consider interesting and relevant.

The flip side of the coin are the nostalgic matchups.  Despite an occasional exception, combat sports are no place for old men… or young men who absorbed so much damage over their fighting career that it makes me cringe watching them receive yet another traumatic brain injury.  There are a handful of such fighters on this card, and some of them are even fighting each other.  It comes to a point where watching these guys get their block knocked off is no longer enjoyable, and so a few of the fights on this card will receive a much lower valuation than you might expect.  I suppose this is a bit hypocritical of me to say as an MMA fan, especially as one who prefers finishes to decisions – perhaps I should just shut up and watch the fights, accepting TBIs to be the inevitable reality of a sport where people punch and kick each other in the head.  However, I am paying to watch these fights and here I am writing about it, and of course this is all based strictly on my personal, subjective opinion.  As always, your mileage may vary.

Main Event: (C) [#1 W135] Ronda Rousey vs [#13 W135] Bethe Correia for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship

Worth: $15

Why: The majority of the MMA world has already written off Bethe Correia as a legitimate challenger, looking past this fight to the inevitability of Rousey – Tate 3.  Ronda Rousey is anywhere between 10-1 and 15-1 betting favorite, and I don’t see Correia pulling off the huge upset here.  However, I think Bethe will last longer in the Octagon with Rousey than Ronda’s last three opponents combined. I expect that Correia will come into to the fight with some semblance of strategy besides rushing Rousey at the opening bell trying to land a hail-mary. Hopefully we will get to see Rousey showcase her cardio, striking, and perseverance – not another arm handed to her on a silver platter.

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Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Ronda Rousey (11-0-0, -1522) vs. [#13] Bethe Correia (9-0-0, +858)
Ronda Rousey is the All-Time #1 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronda Rousey (3-0-0)
2015-02-28: W vs. [#4BW/#9P4P] Cat Zingano (9-1-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 0:14 of round 1
2014-07-05: W vs. [#2BW/#7DD/#6P4P] Alexis Davis (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2014-02-22: W vs. [#6BW] Sara McMann (8-2-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body) in 1:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bethe Correia (3-0-0)
2014-08-30: W vs. [#40BW] Shayna Baszler (15-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:56 of round 2
2014-04-26: W vs. [#48BW] Jessamyn Duke (3-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-12-07: W vs. [NA] Julie Kedzie (16-13-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronda Rousey 154, Bethe Correia 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6-0, +162) vs. [#16] Mauricio Rua (22-10-0, -204)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is the All-Time #13 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #23 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (2-1-0)
2014-07-26: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (19-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 1
2013-02-02: W vs. [*] Rashad Evans (21-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#12LHW] Tito Ortiz (19-11-1) via TKO (Punches and Elbows to the Body) in 3:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (1-2-0)
2014-11-08: L vs. [#9LHW] Ovince St. Preux (18-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 1
2014-03-23: L vs. [#10MW] Dan Henderson (31-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:31 of round 3
2013-12-07: W vs. [#146MW] James Te Huna (16-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 371, Mauricio Rua 266
Previous Match-up Record: Mauricio Rua leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira leads 5-3
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Lightweight (155)
[#61FW] Fernando Bruno (15-2-0, +119) vs. [#233] Glaico Franca Moreira (12-3-0, -151)

Last 3 Fights: Fernando Bruno (3-0-0)
2014-08-24: W vs. [#168FW] Julio Cesar de Almeida (22-10-0) via SD ()
2014-02-04: W vs. [*] Jorge Luis Paico (3-1-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in ? of round 1
2014-02-04: W vs. [#409FW] Enrique Barzola (10-2-1) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Glaico Franca Moreira (2-1-0)
2014-08-30: W vs. [NA] Wellington Soares (0-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:17 of round 1
2014-05-10: W vs. [#1261LW] Piero Severo (4-10-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:55 of round 1
2014-03-15: L vs. [#430LW] Daniel Reis (6-1-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fernando Bruno 342, Glaico Franca Moreira 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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It’s been a marathon of a month for UFC.  After a Pay-Per-View, a TUF Finale, and a couple of Fight Nights, we’re wrapping up July with the fifth UFC event for the month.  This one has a very solid line up: a bantamweight title fight topping the bill, backed by seven other interesting matchups – all broadcast for free on Fox.  Even the Fight Pass prelims have a couple of fights worth tuning into.  All the fights are very closely matched-up, at least according to sports betting odds if not from the ranking standpoint.

Main Event: (C) [#1 BW] T.J. Dillashaw vs [#2 BW] Renan Barao for the UFC Bantamweight Championship

Worth: $20

Why:  In most cases, I would valuate a title fight featuring the top two ranked fighters in their weight class at or near the $25 single-fight limit that I’ve set for myself.  However, for this fight I was struggling to even give it $20. The main reason for this is the weird state of the bantamweight division.  This is the most splintered men’s division in the sport, with four of the Top 10 fighters outside of the UFC (and only two of those four are in the same organization).  The rest of the Top 10 is taken up by Dominic Cruz, who’s fought once since 2011 and suffered another injury after his only fight; Urijah Faber, who has pretty much run out of title shots at any weight class and is now in the stage of his career where he will mostly be involved in ‘feature fights’; Raphael Assuncao; and somehow Manny Gamburyan.  Assuncao is on a seven win streak and holds a split decision win over Dillashaw, so he will almost certainly be the next challenger for the title, but he is a rather bland decision fighter.  Outside of the Top 10, the UFC’s best prospects are Aljamain Sterling and Thomas Almeida, and it would be logical to match them up next, but I don’t believe that either man is ready for a title shot.  Unfortunately one of them will most likely be rushed into it anyhow, unless UFC is able to steal one of the other top bantamweights away from the competition.

As for the actual fight at hand, it also has some odd circumstances surrounding it.  Dillashaw came into the first fight with Barao as a huge underdog, but overcame the odds and dominated the reigning champion, hurting him early in the first round and finishing him in the fifth.  An immediate rematch was scheduled (of course), but disintegrated at the last minute when Barao fell ill as he was attempting to make weight.  TJ Dillashaw ended up defending against the fight night substitute Joe Soto, while Barao had to take on Mitch Gagnon to earn his rematch again. Though both men finished their opponents, neither looked particularly impressive considering how much of a step down they were taking.  Still, this is a good fight – the best that the UFC has to work with in the division at the moment.  It just doesn’t feel like the winner of this fight can truly claim to be the best bantamweight in the world, with Dominic Cruz still in the game and so many top fighters competing outside of the UFC.

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