Welterweight (170)
[#13MW] Kelvin Gastelum (11-1-0) vs. [#21] Neil Magny (16-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2015-06-13: W vs. [#36MW] Nate Marquardt (33-15-2) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2015-01-31: L vs. [#4WW] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#23WW] Jake Ellenberger (30-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (2-1-0)
2015-08-23: W vs. [#26WW] Erick Silva (18-6-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2015-08-01: L vs. [#7WW] Demian Maia (21-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:52 of round 2
2015-05-16: W vs. [#75WW] Hyun Gyu Lim (13-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:24 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 161, Neil Magny 90
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#8] Ricardo Lamas (15-4-0) vs. [*] Diego Sanchez (25-7-0)
Ricardo Lamas is the All-Time #13 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ricardo Lamas (2-1-0)
2015-04-04: L vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (17-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1
2014-11-15: W vs. [#23FW] Dennis Bermudez (14-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
2014-06-28: W vs. [#21FW] Hacran Dias (23-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Diego Sanchez (1-2-0)
2014-06-07: W vs. [#39LW] Ross Pearson (18-9-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2014-03-15: L vs. [#13LW] Myles Jury (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-10-19: L vs. [#7LW] Gilbert Melendez (22-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricardo Lamas 231, Diego Sanchez 532
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#45] Efrain Escudero (24-9-0) vs. [#73WW] Leandro Silva (18-2-1)

Last 3 Fights: Efrain Escudero (2-1-0)
2015-06-13: W vs. [#109LW] Drew Dober (15-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:54 of round 1
2015-02-14: W vs. [#430LW] Rodrigo Goiana de Lima (8-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-09-13: L vs. [#34LW] Leonardo Santos (14-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Leandro Silva (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2015-06-27: W vs. [#111WW] Lewis Gonzalez (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-03-21: NC vs. [#109LW] Drew Dober (15-7-0)
2014-11-08: W vs. [#328LW] Charlie Brenneman (19-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Efrain Escudero 161, Leandro Silva 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading

Less than five years ago, UFC president Dana White stated that “women will never fight in the UFC“.  What a difference a few years makes.  Today, the UFC has two (somewhat) thriving women’s divisions, and Ronda Rousey is arguably the biggest star of the promotion.  And now we have our first Pay-Per-View card with two headlining matchups featuring the two women champions defending their titles.  And despite both of these fights being major mismatches, and the fact that I’m still somewhat lukewarm on WMMA as a whole, I am very much looking forward to this card.

A couple of other oddities about UFC 193. First, I happened to give every fight on the main card the same valuation of $10. This was not intentional – I truly am more or less equally interested in all five PPV bouts. Second, this is the only card of the year where the cable-broadcast prelims received a negative net valuation.  The fights slated to be of Fox Sports 1 are mostly stinkers, and the only interesting preliminary fight on the card is buried as the opening bout on the Fight Pass portion of the event.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event:  (C) [#1 W135] Ronda Rousey vs [#8 W135] Holly Holm for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship

Worth: $10

Why: This fight is a huge mismatch, at least judging from what I’ve seen so far in Holly Holm’s two UFC fights. Despite Holm’s boxing credentials, she lacks knockout power in her punches, and failed to score a knockdown or even do any significant visible damage to her opponents.  Most of the knockouts in her pre-UFC MMA career came from kicks, but she is unlikely to be throwing much of those given the threat of the takedown.  And once Rousey gets this fight to the ground, it will be as good as over.  Nonetheless, I am looking forward to another episode of the Ronda Rousey show. Rousey does something crazy in every fight, whether it’s submitting Cat Zingano with her signature armbar in 14 seconds, or knocking out Bethe Correia (who was supposed to have a striking advantage over Rousey) in 34. The likelihood of Holm winning this fight, or even lasting a round, is slim to none. The only real question is ‘how will Rousey dispatch of her opponent this time, and how quickly will she do it?’ The answer, in my opinion, is worth $10 to find out.

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Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Ronda Rousey (12-0-0) vs. [#8] Holly Holm (9-0-0)
Ronda Rousey is the All-Time #1 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronda Rousey (3-0-0)
2015-08-01: W vs. [#14BW] Bethe Correia (9-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:34 of round 1
2015-02-28: W vs. [#4BW/#9P4P] Cat Zingano (9-1-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 0:14 of round 1
2014-07-05: W vs. [#2BW/#6DD/#5P4P] Alexis Davis (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (3-0-0)
2015-07-15: W vs. [#19BW] Marion Reneau (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-26)
2015-02-28: W vs. [#9BW] Raquel Pennington (6-5-0) via SD ()
2014-04-04: W vs. [#30FLY] Juliana Werner (8-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:50 of round 5

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronda Rousey 105, Holly Holm 122
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#1/#4DD/#3P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-0-0) vs. [#7] Valerie Letourneau (8-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (3-0-0)
2015-06-20: W vs. [#13SW] Jessica Penne (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 4:22 of round 3
2015-03-14: W vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (10-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 2
2014-12-13: W vs. [#2SW/#7DD/#7P4P] Claudia Gadelha (13-1-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Valerie Letourneau (3-0-0)
2015-08-23: W vs. [#16SW] Maryna Moroz (6-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2015-04-25: W vs. [#48SW] Jessica Rakoczy (1-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-06-14: W vs. [#32BW] Elizabeth Phillips (5-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanna Jedrzejczyk 147, Valerie Letourneau 83
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joanna Jedrzejczyk leads 1-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#9] Mark Hunt (10-10-1) vs. [#11] Antonio Silva (19-7-1)
Mark Hunt is the All-Time #19 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Antonio Silva is the All-Time #20 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mark Hunt (1-2-0)
2015-05-10: L vs. [#5HW+] Stipe Miocic (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:47 of round 5
2014-11-15: L vs. [#1HW+/#4DD/#5P4P] Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:27 of round 2
2014-09-20: W vs. [#21HW+] Roy Nelson (20-12-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (1-2-0)
2015-08-01: W vs. [*] Soa Palelei (22-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 2
2015-02-22: L vs. [#10HW+] Frank Mir (18-10-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:40 of round 1
2014-09-13: L vs. [#4HW+] Andrei Arlovski (25-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mark Hunt 188, Antonio Silva 105
Previous Match-up Record: Even: 0-0-1
Wins Against Common Opposition: Antonio Silva leads 2-0
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Middleweight (186)
[#5] Vitor Belfort (24-11-0, 185.0lb) vs. [#10] Dan Henderson (31-13-0, 186.0lb)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2015-05-23: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD/#2P4P] Chris Weidman (13-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:53 of round 1
2013-11-09: W vs. [#10MW] Dan Henderson (31-13-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:17 of round 1
2013-05-18: W vs. [#2MW] Luke Rockhold (14-2-0) via KO (Spinning Heel Kick and Punches) in 2:32 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (1-2-0)
2015-06-06: W vs. [#22MW] Tim Boetsch (18-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:28 of round 1
2015-01-24: L vs. [#8MW] Gegard Mousasi (37-6-2) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2014-05-24: L vs. [#2LHW/#10DD/#6P4P] Daniel Cormier (17-1-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 168, Dan Henderson 154
Previous Match-up Record: Even: 1-1-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 4 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (206)
[#7] Glover Teixeira (23-4-0, 206.0lb) vs. [#33] Patrick Cummins (8-2-0, 206.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (1-2-0)
2015-08-08: W vs. [#13LHW] Ovince St. Preux (18-7-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:10 of round 3
2014-10-25: L vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-04-26: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Patrick Cummins (2-1-0)
2015-08-01: W vs. [#44LHW] Rafael Cavalcante (12-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 0:45 of round 3
2015-04-18: L vs. [#13LHW] Ovince St. Preux (18-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:54 of round 1
2014-12-20: W vs. [#43MW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (5-1-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 91, Patrick Cummins 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Glover Teixeira leads 2-1
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Bantamweight (136)
[#19] Thomas Almeida (19-0-0, 135.0lb) vs. [#48] Anthony Birchak (12-2-0, 136.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Thomas Almeida (3-0-0)
2015-07-11: W vs. [#60BW] Brad Pickett (24-11-0) via KO (Knee) in 0:29 of round 2
2015-04-25: W vs. [#85BW] Yves Jabouin (20-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2014-11-08: W vs. [#131BW] Tim Gorman (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Birchak (2-1-0)
2015-06-06: W vs. [#77BW] Joe Soto (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:37 of round 1
2014-12-13: L vs. [#74BW] Ian Entwistle (9-2-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:04 of round 1
2013-10-04: W vs. [#236BW] Tito Jones (11-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:30 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thomas Almeida 119, Anthony Birchak 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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After the previous UFC Fight Night card fell short of expectations when two of the main fights were cancelled due to injuries, the UFC soldiers on to the next Fight Night.  This one will take place in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.  This is kind of an odd card as there are no huge fights here, no top contenders or over-hyped prospects, yet almost every fight on the line-up interests me in some way.  So even though I didn’t valuate any single fight higher than $7.50, overall they all added up to a seemingly worthwhile event.

Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Main Event:  [#5 MW] Vitor Belfort vs [#10 MW] Dan Henderson

Worth: $7.50

Why: The main event is a battle of two old lions who are no strangers to each other in the ring or the cage.  The longevity of these fighters careers is remarkable, and so it’s no wonder that they are meeting for the third time. Their first two fights could not have been any more different from each other. Back in 2006, Henderson defeated Belfort via a wrestling-heavy decision, a boring fight that was for some reason aired twice during the Pride 32 broadcast. Belfort took revenge seven years later, knocking out Henderson with a head kick, a little over a minute into the first round at UFC Fight Night 32. Now they meet again – this time as middleweights, and without Testosterone Replacement Therapy or Performance Enhancing Drugs being used by either fighter, allegedly.

There isn’t much on the line here, with Henderson 1-1 in his most recent run at middleweight and Belfort coming off a quick loss to the champ; however the winning fighter will remain in the top 10 and could be not that far from a title shot, especially if an unexpected injury comes up and calls for a short notice replacement.  I just hope that this goes more like their second fight than their first – in terms of entertainment value, not the outcome.  Though I suspect that the outcome will also be similar to their second fight.

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UFC Fight Night 76 is another Saturday afternoon Fight Pass-exclusive event, taking place in Dublin, Ireland.  The card originally featured a heavyweight matchup between Ben Rothwell and Stipe Miocic; however Miocic pulled out with an injury and UFC matchmakers were not able to find a replacement opponent on short notice.  Without this bout, there are very few interesting fights remaining on the card, and so it will be a rather short write-up.  On a somewhat related note, why is Miocic – one of the top heavyweight contenders – always being placed on Fight Pass cards?

Main Event:  [#20 LW] Dustin Poirier vs [#82 LW] Joseph Duffy

Worth: $10

Why: 26-year-old Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Porrier has been a mainstay of the UFC’s featherweight division, where he racked up a respectable 8-3 record; however after a TKO loss to Conor McGregor, Porrier decided to move up in weight.  He scored first-round TKOs in his first two fights as a lightweight, and now gets to take on Joseph Duffy, who also happens to be the last fighter to hold a victory over McGregor.  Even though the McGregor fight will be touted as Duffy’s biggest accomplishment (at least until the Conor hype dies down), 27-year-old ‘Irish Joe’ has proven to be a great prospect in his own right, holding two first-round stoppages in his two UFC fights to date.  Both guys are well rounded and always fun to watch, so this should be a great scrap.

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Flyweight (125)
[#10] Louis Smolka (9-1-0) vs. [#13] Patrick Holohan (12-1-1)

Last 3 Fights: Louis Smolka (2-1-0)
2015-07-11: W vs. [#32FLY] Neil Seery (15-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-11-07: W vs. [#108FLY] Richie Vaculik (10-3-0) via KO (Side Kick and Punches) in 0:18 of round 3
2014-05-10: L vs. [#37FLY] Chris Cariaso (17-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Patrick Holohan (2-1-0)
2015-07-18: W vs. [#87FLY] Vaughan Lee (14-11-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2015-01-18: W vs. [#488BW] Shane Howell (13-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-10-04: L vs. [#33FLY] Chris Kelades (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Louis Smolka 105, Patrick Holohan 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#57] Norman Parke (20-4-1) vs. [*] Reza Madadi (13-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Norman Parke (1-2-0)
2015-05-30: L vs. [#27LW] Francisco Trinaldo (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2015-01-18: L vs. [#28LW] Gleison Tibau (32-11-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-07-19: W vs. [#297LW] Naoyuki Kotani (33-13-7) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:41 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Reza Madadi (2-1-0)
2013-04-06: W vs. [#9LW] Michael Johnson (16-9-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:33 of round 3
2012-10-13: L vs. [*] Cristiano Marcello (13-6-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-04-14: W vs. [*] Yoislandy Izquierdo (9-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:28 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Norman Parke 147, Reza Madadi 931
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#53] Nicolas Dalby (14-0-0) vs. [#141] Darren Till (13-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Nicolas Dalby (3-0-0)
2015-05-30: W vs. [#117WW] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (14-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#249MW] Mohsen Bahari (8-3-0) via UD ()
2014-03-22: W vs. [*] Sergei Churilov (15-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 2:19 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Darren Till (3-0-0)
2015-05-30: W vs. [#272WW] Wendell de Oliveira Marqu (24-9-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:37 of round 2
2015-05-09: W vs. [#865WW] Laerte Costa e Silva (11-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 4
2014-12-20: W vs. [#360WW] Guillermo Martinez Ayme (8-2-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nicolas Dalby 147, Darren Till 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#27MW] Yushin Okami (30-9-0) vs. [#28] Jon Fitch (26-7-1)
Jon Fitch is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Yushin Okami (1-2-0)
2014-11-15: L vs. [#10LHW] David Branch (17-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 4
2014-03-29: W vs. [#130MW] Svetlozar Savov (15-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:46 of round 2
2013-09-04: L vs. [#4MW] Ronaldo Souza (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jon Fitch (2-1-0)
2014-12-13: L vs. [#5WW] Rousimar Palhares (18-6-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:30 of round 1
2014-07-05: W vs. [#155MW] Dennis Hallman (53-18-2) via UD ()
2013-10-26: W vs. [#141WW] Marcelo Alfaya (16-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yushin Okami 336, Jon Fitch 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#28] Blagoy Ivanov (12-1-0) vs. [#41] Derrick Mehmen (19-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Blagoy Ivanov (2-1-0)
2015-06-05: W vs. [#42HW+] Smealinho Rama (9-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:17 of round 3
2014-05-17: L vs. [#30HW+] Alexander Volkov (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:08 of round 2
2014-04-11: W vs. [#68HW+] Lavar Johnson (18-10-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 4:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Mehmen (2-1-0)
2015-03-26: W vs. [#86HW+] Brett Rogers (17-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-10-11: L vs. [#42HW+] Smealinho Rama (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 1
2014-06-21: W vs. [#140HW+] Dave Huckaba (22-9-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-25)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Blagoy Ivanov 134, Derrick Mehmen 205
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Blagoy Ivanov leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#26] Vinny Magalhaes (12-7-0) vs. [*] Matt Hamill (11-5-0)

Last 3 Fights: Vinny Magalhaes (2-1-0)
2014-09-26: W vs. [#55HW+] Jason Brilz (23-6-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:36 of round 4
2014-07-19: W vs. [#417LHW] Jorge Gonzales (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:12 of round 1
2013-08-03: L vs. [#49LHW] Anthony Perosh (15-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:14 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matt Hamill (1-2-0)
2013-10-09: L vs. [#34LHW] Thiago Silva (16-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-27)
2012-09-22: W vs. [*] Roger Hollett (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2011-08-06: L vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:41 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vinny Magalhaes 386, Matt Hamill 738
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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For UFC 192, Zuffa has put together a very strong fight card.  Though this event didn’t receive nearly the amount of hype that some of the cards headlined by Ronda Rousey or Conor McGregor have, I believe this to be the deepest card of the year to date.  This one is certainly worth the price of a Pay-Per-View on paper; the only negative thing I could say about this event is that a few of the matchups have a high likelihood of not living up to the potential – but that’s what you get with competitive matchmaking and wrestler-heavy line up.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event:  (C) [#2 LHW] Daniel Cormier vs [#7 LHW] Alexander Gustafsson

Worth: $22.50

Why: This is a great fight in almost every aspect except for the the fact that it’s for a paper title.  Though the previous champion Jon Jones was stripped of the belt due to his legal issues, he has beaten both Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson, the former more convincingly than the latter. As Jones copped a plea deal and got off with a slap on the wrist (probation and community service), he will likely be back in action soon, which means that the winner of this fight is simply holding the championship belt warm for the true champ.  I am not going to make any predictions for this fight, but I do hope for a Gustafsson win as Gustafsson-Jones II would be far more interesting than Cormier-Jones II.

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Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#2/#8DD/#7P4P] Daniel Cormier (16-1-0) vs. [#7] Alexander Gustafsson (16-3-0)
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Alexander Gustafsson is the All-Time #15 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (2-1-0)
2015-05-23: W vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:39 of round 3
2015-01-03: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2014-05-24: W vs. [#10MW] Dan Henderson (31-13-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (1-2-0)
2015-01-24: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (20-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1
2014-03-08: W vs. [#14LHW] Jimi Manuwa (15-2-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:18 of round 2
2013-09-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Cormier 133, Alexander Gustafsson 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Daniel Cormier leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#2/#10P4P] Johny Hendricks (17-3-0) vs. [#4] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0)
Johny Hendricks is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Johny Hendricks (2-1-0)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#9WW] Matt Brown (20-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-12-06: L vs. [#1WW/#7DD/#6P4P] Robbie Lawler (26-10-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 49-46)
2014-03-15: W vs. [#1WW/#7DD/#6P4P] Robbie Lawler (26-10-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Tyron Woodley (2-1-0)
2015-01-31: W vs. [#12MW] Kelvin Gastelum (11-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-08-23: W vs. [#10WW] Dong Hyun Kim (20-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:01 of round 1
2014-06-14: L vs. [#3WW] Rory MacDonald (18-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johny Hendricks 203, Tyron Woodley 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#4] Ryan Bader (19-4-0) vs. [*] Rashad Evans (21-3-1)
Ryan Bader is the All-Time #20 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Bader (3-0-0)
2015-01-24: W vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (15-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-08-16: W vs. [#12LHW] Ovince St. Preux (18-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2014-06-14: W vs. [#40LHW] Rafael Cavalcante (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (2-1-0)
2013-11-16: W vs. [*] Chael Sonnen (28-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1
2013-06-15: W vs. [#10MW] Dan Henderson (31-13-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#16LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Bader 252, Rashad Evans 686
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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UFC Fight Night 75 will take place at the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan and is the finale for the ‘Road to UFC: Japan’ series, which is a re-branded version of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’.  As one might expect, the card is loaded with local talent, and would make for a good Fight Pass event; however September has been a slow month compared to UFC’s hectic summer pace, with Fight Night 75 being the only event this month besides the UFC 191 PPV.   So we end up with a passable main card on Fox Sports 1, and a very weak preliminary card on Fox Sports 2. There was a lone early prelim fight slated for Fight Pass, but with a last-minute cancellation of the scheduled fight between Matt Hobar and Norifumi ‘Kid’ Yamamoto, the top-billed FS2 prelim was moved to FS1 and the Fight Pass bout bumped up to FS2.  Which leaves us with nothing of note on the prelims, so I will just go over the main card.

Main Event: [#15 HW] Roy Nelson vs [NR] Josh Barnett

Worth: $10

Why: This is sort of an odd match-up.  It’s as if the UFC doesn’t really know what to do with either of these heavyweights at the moment, so let’s make them coaches on ‘Road to UFC: Japan’, and have them fight each other in the main event of the finale.  Beyond that the fight makes little sense, and there is not much on the line here, besides maybe the winner holding on to the remaining bit of relevancy.  Roy Nelson is on a two fight skid, and only won one out of his last five bouts, but even with a loss he is likely to get at least one more fight in UFC. His opponent Josh Barnett has not fought in nearly two years, and is 1-1 in his recent UFC stint, with both fights ending by TKO in the first round and not really showing how much Barnett has left in the tank.

We all know exactly what Roy Nelson will do in every fight, so to me the most interesting thing about this one is what strategy will Barnett use against him. Submissions are Barnett’s bread and butter, however Nelson has a very competent ground game.  Even though he completely abandoned it in favor of winging overhand rights and uppercuts, he has gone the distance with Frank Mir and Fabricio Werdum – two of the most dangerous submission experts at HW – and was never in any trouble on the ground despite losing both fights.  So it’s not likely that Barnett will be able to submit Nelson; a knockout is also unlikely as Roy has a solid chin and Josh is not known for his KO power.  The best strategy for Barnett would be to use his ugly yet effective striking to outpoint Nelson, as so many of his opponents have done before.  However, Barnett claims that he wants a finish and not a win on points, and going blow-for-blow with Nelson is generally not a good idea.  My pick here is Barnett by decision – unless he gets caught with a big shot early, or is very out of shape due to ring rust.  What I don’t expect is a particularly exciting fight (barring that possibility of an early KO by Nelson).

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Heavyweight (265)
[#15] Roy Nelson (20-11-0, +189) vs. [*] Josh Barnett (33-7-0, -231)
Josh Barnett is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (1-2-0)
2015-03-14: L vs. [#8HW+] Alistair Overeem (39-14-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-09-20: L vs. [#9HW+] Mark Hunt (10-10-1) via KO (Punch) in 3:00 of round 2
2014-04-11: W vs. [*] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-10-1) via KO (Punch) in 3:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Josh Barnett (2-1-0)
2013-12-28: L vs. [#7HW+] Travis Browne (17-3-1) via KO (Elbows) in 1:00 of round 1
2013-08-31: W vs. [#10HW+] Frank Mir (18-10-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:56 of round 1
2013-01-12: W vs. [*] Nandor Guelmino (11-5-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:11 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 196, Josh Barnett 637
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Josh Barnett leads 4-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#5] Gegard Mousasi (37-5-2) vs. [#32] Uriah Hall (11-5-0)
Gegard Mousasi is the All-Time #16 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gegard Mousasi (2-1-0)
2015-05-16: W vs. [*] Costas Philippou (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2015-01-24: W vs. [#9MW] Dan Henderson (31-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2014-09-05: L vs. [#4MW] Ronaldo Souza (22-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (2-1-0)
2015-08-08: W vs. [#281MW] Oluwale Bamgbose (5-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 1
2015-05-23: L vs. [#23MW] Rafael Natal (20-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2015-01-18: W vs. [#152MW] Ron Stallings (13-7-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:37 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gegard Mousasi 133, Uriah Hall 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gegard Mousasi leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#8] Kyoji Horiguchi (15-2-0) vs. [#17] Chico Camus (15-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Kyoji Horiguchi (2-1-0)
2015-04-25: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Demetrious Johnson (23-2-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:59 of round 5
2015-01-03: W vs. [#47FLY] Louis Gaudinot (7-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-09-20: W vs. [#131FLY] Jon delos Reyes (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Chico Camus (1-2-0)
2015-06-13: L vs. [#5FLY] Henry Cejudo (9-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2014-11-22: W vs. [#58BW] Brad Pickett (24-11-0) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 29-28)
2014-05-24: L vs. [*] Chris Holdsworth (6-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyoji Horiguchi 154, Chico Camus 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Liam McGeary (10-0-0) vs. [#12] Tito Ortiz (19-11-1)
Tito Ortiz is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Liam McGeary (3-0-0)
2015-02-27: W vs. [#14LHW] Emanuel Newton (25-8-1) via UD (48-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2014-09-12: W vs. [#45LHW] Kelly Anundson (9-3-0) via Submission (Inverted Triangle Choke) in 4:47 of round 1
2014-07-25: W vs. [#95LHW] Egidijus Valavicius (28-11-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 2:10 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tito Ortiz (2-1-0)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#66LHW] Stephan Bonnar (15-9-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2014-05-17: W vs. [#27MW] Alexander Shlemenko (51-9-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:27 of round 1
2012-07-07: L vs. [*] Forrest Griffin (19-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Liam McGeary 204, Tito Ortiz 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#15] Josh Thomson (20-8-0) vs. [#105] Mike Bronzoulis (18-8-1)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Thomson (0-3-0)
2015-07-15: L vs. [#5LW] Tony Ferguson (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2014-07-26: L vs. [#18LW] Bobby Green (23-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-01-25: L vs. [#13WW] Ben Henderson (22-5-0) via SD (49-46, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Bronzoulis (3-0-0)
2015-05-08: W vs. [#157LW] Dave Burrow (13-6-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2015-02-27: W vs. [#302LW] Jonathan Harris (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:43 of round 1
2014-11-14: W vs. [#750LW] Justin Reiswerg (8-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:51 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Thomson 66, Mike Bronzoulis 134
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Phil Davis (13-3-0) vs. [#14] Emanuel Newton (25-8-1)
Phil Davis is the All-Time #17 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (1-2-0)
2015-01-24: L vs. [#4LHW] Ryan Bader (19-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-10-25: W vs. [#6LHW] Glover Teixeira (23-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-04-26: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Emanuel Newton (2-1-0)
2015-02-27: L vs. [#10LHW] Liam McGeary (10-0-0) via UD (48-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2014-10-24: W vs. [#24LHW] Linton Vassell (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:47 of round 5
2014-09-12: W vs. [#37MW] Joey Beltran (16-11-0) via KO (Spinning Back Fist) in 3:07 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Phil Davis 238, Emanuel Newton 204
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Tonya Evinger (16-5-0) vs. [#15] Pannie Kianzad (8-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Tonya Evinger (3-0-0)
2015-07-09: W vs. [#25BW] Irene Aldana (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 4
2014-12-05: W vs. [#64BW] Cindy Dandois (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:23 of round 2
2014-09-06: W vs. [#50BW] Ediane Gomes (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Pannie Kianzad (3-0-0)
2015-07-09: W vs. [#37BW] Jessica-Rose Clark (5-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#95FLY] Eeva Siiskonen (3-3-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2014-08-22: W vs. [NA] Megan van Houtum (1-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:17 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tonya Evinger 65, Pannie Kianzad 65
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#6] DeAnna Bennett (7-0-0) vs. [#18] Katja Kankaanpaa (10-2-1)

Last 3 Fights: DeAnna Bennett (3-0-0)
2015-02-27: W vs. [#65SW] Norma Rueda Center (3-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-12-05: W vs. [#3FLY] Jennifer Maia (10-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-09-06: W vs. [#53BW] Michelle Ould (7-4-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:34 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Katja Kankaanpaa (2-1-0)
2015-04-24: L vs. [#4SW] Livia Renata Souza (8-0-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:58 of round 4
2014-09-06: W vs. [#53SW] Stephanie Eggink (4-2-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:03 of round 5
2014-05-17: W vs. [#17AW] Alyona Rassohyna (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:49 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: DeAnna Bennett 197, Katja Kankaanpaa 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#35BW] Mariana Morais (9-2-0) vs. [#9] Roxanne Modafferi (17-12-0)
Roxanne Modafferi is the All-Time #13 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mariana Morais (3-0-0)
2014-12-20: W vs. [#101FLY] Marta Souza (2-7-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:04 of round 2
2014-12-03: W vs. [NA] Cristina Mejia (1-4-0) via UD ()
2014-11-15: W vs. [#61BW] Stephanie Bragayrac (5-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in ? of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Roxanne Modafferi (2-1-0)
2015-04-24: L vs. [#2FLY] Vanessa Porto (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-12-05: W vs. [#51FLY] Andrea Lee (2-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2014-09-06: W vs. [#14FLY] Tara LaRosa (22-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mariana Morais 266, Roxanne Modafferi 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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For the tenth Pay-Per-View event of the year, the UFC has come up with a great main event and a very good co-main.  Beyond that, the quality of the main card matchups drops very quickly.  On the plus side, there are a couple of interesting fights on the Fox Sports 1 prelims.  There is also Joe Riggs vs Ron Stallings on the Fight Pass prelims… if you’re into that kind of thing.  Let’s get on with it:

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event:  (C) [#1 FLW] Demetrious Johnson vs [#4 FLW] John Dodson

Worth: $22.50

Why: Despite this being a rematch, it is undoubtedly the best flyweight fight you could ask for at the moment: John ‘The Magician’ Dodson gave Demetrious Johnson his toughest fight since ‘Mighty Mouse’ won the title, and even though Dodson lost a unanimous decision, he managed to do some damage – even scoring a couple of knockdowns on the champion.  Dodson is the only fighter in the division who can match Johnson’s speed and athleticism, and holds an edge in striking power.  The only thing stopping me from giving this fight the max valuation of $25 is the fact that Johnson has seemingly improved in every fight, racking up five additional title defenses since his first encounter with Dodson, and finishing four of his challengers.  Meanwhile Dodson has been plagued by injuries, fought infrequently, and has not shown any signficant improvements in his game.  Unless Dodson can hurt Demetrious early and capitalize on it unlike last time, I see the rematch going much like their first fight – with Mighty Mouse taking home another decision by being the more active fighter if nothing else.

Co-Main Event:  [#4 HW] Andrei Arlovski vs [#10 HW] Frank Mir

Worth: $15

Why: The heavyweight division is in a weird state in 2015: there is not a single fighter in the Top 10 under 30 (30-year-old Junior dos Santos being the youngest), and most of the names near the top of the division are the same guys who ruled the roost ten years ago.  With Fabricio Werdum winning the heavyweight title, and rumors of Fedor Emelianenko returning from retirement and signing a UFC contract afloat, this has truly been the year of comeback for aging heavyweights.  Our co-main event competitors, both former UFC champions of the decade past, are prime examples of this heavyweight resurrection.

Andrei Arlovski’s name has been tossed around as one of the most likely contenders for Werdum’s title, but for some inexplicable reason UFC decided to give an immediate rematch to Cain Velasquez instead.  While Werdum-Velasquez II is a nonsensical fight at this point in time, it still leaves room for some very interesting matchups in the division.  It’s a bit of a surprise that Arlovski and Mir have not met in the Octagon before, but late is better than never, and with both fighter coming off impressive back-to-back knockout victories this is promising to be a great fight.  Something is holding me back from valuing this fight a bit higher though: a few nagging memories in the back of my mind of the tentative versions of Arlovski and Mir, rather than the ‘swing for the fences’ version that we’ve seen in their recent fights.   Past bouts like Arlovski vs Brendan Schaub, Werdum, or his third fight with Tim Sylvia… or Mir’s fights with Alistair Overeem, Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic, Dan Christison… all make me consider the remote but distinct possibility that we might be in for a dance contest rather than a fight.  But I’m going to put away the ancient memories and hope for the best: two well-matured contenders colliding in a blaze of glory, with the winner perhaps getting another shot at the gold.

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