We hit a huge parlay last week! Let’s try again..
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fight amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
2025 Hit Rate: 8 of 23 (31.8%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 24.0%, WHR: 45.0% – Profit/Loss: +$2,129.01
“The Safe” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed all have negative odds (almost always betting favorites).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least one bet, I’ll bend a little on this percentage and mark the fight(s).
- Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
2025 Hit Rate: 12 of 18 (66.7%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 59.7%, WHR: 76.6% – Profit/Loss: +$169.76
Other things to consider….
- WHR referenced in this post is fighter age-adjusted using a formula driven by previous results. This is not “vanilla” WHR.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the “juice”.
- Our odds are composite odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- FM Agree – If YES, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog pick is indeed the underdog and the safe pick is the favorite.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Profit/Loss is based on $100 bet per parlay.
- If a fight is scrapped, I will adjust the profit if the parlay cashes.
Really appreciate the breakdown, Jason—especially the use of age-adjusted WHR and composite odds. That nuance really helps remove a lot of noise, especially when evaluating fighter longevity and recent performance trends.
Appreciate the words!
Always looking for ideas when we restart in 2026. May run “beta” version late 2025.
I think there is more juice to squeeze if I can do a bit more filtering on fights.. but don’t want to end up with too few. I’m also thinking about varying the bet amounts but want to be completely objective in doing so.