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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg (03-29-2025)

Posted on March 24, 2025 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#3][#8DD][#3UFC] Brandon Moreno (22-8-2, -201) vs. [#10][#8UFC] Steve Erceg (12-3-0, +166)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-2-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#9FLY] Amir Albazi (17-2-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#2FLY][#7DD] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1FLY][#5DD][#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (1-2-0)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#5FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 1
2024-05-04: L vs. [#1FLY][#5DD][#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#86FLY] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:26 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brandon Moreno -201 63.98%
Elo K170 Brandon Moreno 1982.13 +318.02 86.18%
Elo Modified Brandon Moreno 2012.46 +349.29 88.19%
Glicko-1 Brandon Moreno 2112.16 +429.12 92.20%
WHR Brandon Moreno 2020.54 +356.65 88.63%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Moreno 31.3, Steve Erceg 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 147, Steve Erceg 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Moreno leads 2-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#53][#29UFC] Drew Dober (27-14-0, +104) vs. [#125][#53UFC] Manuel Torres (15-3-0, -125)

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (1-2-0)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#24FW] Jean Silva (15-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:28 of round 3
2024-02-03: L vs. [#9LW] Renato Carneiro (20-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#299LW] Ricky Glenn (22-9-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Manuel Torres (2-1-0)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#18LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1
2024-02-24: W vs. [#126LW] Chris Duncan (13-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
2023-06-17: W vs. [#122LW] Nikolas Motta (15-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Manuel Torres -125 53.12%
Elo K170 Drew Dober 1664.32 +10.78 51.55%
Elo Modified Drew Dober 1663.93 +16.93 52.43%
Glicko-1 Drew Dober 1717.82 +26.81 53.85%
WHR Drew Dober 1705.58 +20.44 52.94%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Drew Dober 36.4, Manuel Torres 30.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Drew Dober 259, Manuel Torres 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#17][#15UFC] Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0, +268) vs. [#23][#19UFC] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0, -344)
Kelvin Gastelum is the All-Time #29 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#37WW] Daniel Rodriguez (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#2WW][#10P4P] Sean Brady (18-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:43 of round 3
2023-04-08: W vs. [#24MW] Chris Curtis (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Pyfer (2-1-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#59MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
2024-02-10: L vs. [#19MW] Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#109MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-7-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joe Pyfer -344 74.03%
Elo K170 Kelvin Gastelum 1926.26 +200.23 76.00%
Elo Modified Kelvin Gastelum 1918.73 +162.04 71.76%
Glicko-1 Kelvin Gastelum 1963.95 +109.73 65.29%
WHR Kelvin Gastelum 1832.08 +89.87 62.65%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kelvin Gastelum 33.4, Joe Pyfer 28.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 280, Joe Pyfer 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#93][#45UFC] Vince Morales (16-9-0, +277) vs. [#121][#55UFC] Raul Rosas Jr. (10-1-0, -364)

Last 3 Fights: Vince Morales (1-2-0)
2025-02-15: L vs. [#79BW] Elijah Smith (8-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#34BW] Taylor Lapilus (21-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-08-30: W vs. [#154BW] Hunter Azure (12-4-0) via Submission (Peruvian Necktie) in 4:06 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Raul Rosas Jr. (3-0-0)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#251BW] Qileng Aori (27-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#639BW] Ricky Turcios (12-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:22 of round 2
2023-09-16: W vs. [*] Terrence Mitchell (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Raul Rosas Jr. -364 74.72%
Elo K170 Raul Rosas Jr. 1628.10 +97.94 63.73%
Elo Modified Raul Rosas Jr. 1615.80 +66.94 59.52%
Glicko-1 Raul Rosas Jr. 1638.31 +47.26 56.76%
WHR Vince Morales 1570.87 +36.20 55.19%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Vince Morales 34.4, Raul Rosas Jr. 20.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vince Morales 42, Raul Rosas Jr. 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#88] David Martinez (11-1-0, -419) vs. [*] Saimon Oliveira (18-5-0, +311)

Last 3 Fights: David Martinez (3-0-0)
2024-10-01: W vs. [#240BW] Xavier Franklin (6-1-0) via UD ()
2023-05-28: W vs. [#258FW] Jose Zarauz (26-10-2) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 4:17 of round 4
2022-10-07: W vs. [#185FLY] Axel Osuna (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Saimon Oliveira (1-2-0)
2023-01-21: L vs. [#28BW] Daniel Marcos (17-0-0) via KO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 2:18 of round 2
2022-01-22: L vs. [*] Tony Gravely (23-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-09-07: W vs. [*] Jose Alday (13-7-1) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds David Martinez -419 76.84%
Elo K170 David Martinez 1629.90 +180.78 73.90%
Elo Modified David Martinez 1704.77 +277.12 83.13%
Glicko-1 David Martinez 1713.25 +264.43 82.09%
WHR David Martinez 1682.79 +333.11 87.18%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: David Martinez 26.6, Saimon Oliveira 33.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: David Martinez 179, Saimon Oliveira 798
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#41][#23UFC] Ronaldo Rodriguez (18-2-0, -161) vs. [#146][#44UFC] Kevin Borjas (9-3-0, +133)

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Rodriguez (3-0-0)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#108FLY] Ode Osbourne (12-8-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-27)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#431FLY] Denys Bondar (19-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:59 of round 2
2023-05-19: W vs. [#471FW] Angel Rodriguez (15-16-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Borjas (1-2-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#50FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 2
2023-11-11: L vs. [#15FLY] Joshua Van (13-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-08: W vs. [#159BW] Victor Dias (13-4-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ronaldo Rodriguez -161 58.97%
Elo K170 Ronaldo Rodriguez 1652.80 +265.93 82.21%
Elo Modified Ronaldo Rodriguez 1645.18 +237.25 79.67%
Glicko-1 Ronaldo Rodriguez 1662.88 +233.48 79.31%
WHR Ronaldo Rodriguez 1561.48 +120.09 66.63%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ronaldo Rodriguez 25.9, Kevin Borjas 27.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Rodriguez 196, Kevin Borjas 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#126][#39UFC] C.J. Vergara (12-6-1, +243) vs. [#134][#41UFC] Edgar Chairez (11-6-0, -307)

Last 3 Fights: C.J. Vergara (1-2-0)
2024-10-12: L vs. [#18FLY] Ramazonbek Temirov (19-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:50 of round 1
2024-03-09: L vs. [#20FLY] Asu Almabayev (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#515BW] Vinicius Salvador (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Edgar Chairez (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#15FLY] Joshua Van (13-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#550BW] Daniel Lacerda (13-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:17 of round 1
2023-09-16: NC vs. [#550BW] Daniel Lacerda (13-6-0)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edgar Chairez -307 72.12%
Elo K170 C.J. Vergara 1465.08 +93.79 63.18%
Elo Modified C.J. Vergara 1455.53 +78.05 61.05%
Glicko-1 C.J. Vergara 1472.03 +47.56 56.80%
WHR Edgar Chairez 1452.90 +50.20 57.18%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: C.J. Vergara 33.8, Edgar Chairez 29.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: C.J. Vergara 168, Edgar Chairez 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#337] Ateba Abega Gautier (6-1-0, -477) vs. [#438] Jose Medina (11-4-0, +349)

Last 3 Fights: Ateba Abega Gautier (3-0-0)
2024-09-17: W vs. [#542MW] Yura Naito (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:00 of round 2
2023-12-02: W vs. [NA] Carlos Antonio de Souza (19-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in of round 1
2023-06-02: W vs. [#814MW] Vuk Lekic (2-1-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:58 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jose Medina (1-2-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#131MW] Zachary Reese (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-10-03: L vs. [#112LHW] Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (9-1-0) via UD ()
2023-03-31: W vs. [#256HW+] Fernando Luiz da Costa Fi (6-4-0) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ateba Abega Gautier -477 78.77%
Elo K170 Ateba Abega Gautier 1313.25 +36.25 55.20%
Elo Modified Ateba Abega Gautier 1348.58 +72.41 60.27%
Glicko-1 Ateba Abega Gautier 1384.70 +82.90 61.71%
WHR Ateba Abega Gautier 1315.13 +82.90 61.71%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ateba Abega Gautier 22.9, Jose Medina 33.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ateba Abega Gautier 193, Jose Medina 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#40][#27UFC] Melquizael Costa (22-7-0, +123) vs. [#111][#53UFC] Christian Rodriguez (12-2-0, -149)

Last 3 Fights: Melquizael Costa (2-1-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#53FW] Andre Fili (24-12-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:30 of round 1
2024-06-15: W vs. [#174FW] Nuerdanbieke Shayilan (42-12-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 1:50 of round 3
2023-12-09: L vs. [#23FW] Steve Garcia (17-5-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:01 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Christian Rodriguez (2-1-0)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#180FW] Austin Bashi (13-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#74FW] Julian Erosa (30-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2024-03-16: W vs. [#214FW] Isaac Dulgarian (7-1-0) via SD (28-27, 27-28, 28-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Christian Rodriguez -149 57.16%
Elo K170 Melquizael Costa 1751.11 +58.12 58.29%
Elo Modified Melquizael Costa 1737.72 +60.06 58.56%
Glicko-1 Melquizael Costa 1776.20 +139.48 69.06%
WHR Melquizael Costa 1663.46 +93.31 63.12%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Melquizael Costa 28.5, Christian Rodriguez 27.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Melquizael Costa 35, Christian Rodriguez 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#15][#14UFC] Lupita Godinez (12-5-0, -223) vs. [#38][#26UFC] Julia Polastri (13-4-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Lupita Godinez (1-2-0)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#5SW] Mackenzie Dern (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#2SW][#6DD][#5P4P] Virna Jandiroba (21-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#8SW] Tabatha Ricci (11-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

Last 3 Fights: Julia Polastri (2-1-0)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#69SW] Cory McKenna (8-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2024-06-15: L vs. [#33SW] Josefine Lindgren Knutsso (8-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-12: W vs. [*] Patricia Alujas (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lupita Godinez -223 66.06%
Elo K170 Julia Polastri 1526.51 +35.01 55.02%
Elo Modified Julia Polastri 1508.02 +24.12 53.46%
Glicko-1 Julia Polastri 1481.51 +24.95 53.58%
WHR Lupita Godinez 1488.99 +71.09 60.09%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Lupita Godinez 31.5, Julia Polastri 27.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lupita Godinez 238, Julia Polastri 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#80][#40UFC] Rafa Garcia (16-4-0, -504) vs. [#292][#77UFC] Vinc Pichel (14-4-0, +363)

Last 3 Fights: Rafa Garcia (2-1-0)
2024-10-12: L vs. [#15LW] Grant Dawson (23-2-1) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:42 of round 2
2023-04-15: W vs. [#138LW] Clay Guida (38-25-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#298LW] Maheshate Hayisaer (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Vinc Pichel (1-2-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#109LW] Ismael Bonfim (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-04-09: L vs. [*] Mark O. Madsen (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-21: W vs. [#141LW] Austin Hubbard (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rafa Garcia -504 79.43%
Elo K170 Rafa Garcia 1739.81 +63.42 59.03%
Elo Modified Rafa Garcia 1712.61 +36.72 55.26%
Glicko-1 Rafa Garcia 1732.28 +46.90 56.71%
WHR Rafa Garcia 1658.68 +114.19 65.87%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rafa Garcia 30.6, Vinc Pichel 42.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafa Garcia 168, Vinc Pichel 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#160][#60UFC] Jamall Emmers (20-8-0, -346) vs. [#448][#80UFC] Gabriel Miranda (17-7-0, +266)

Last 3 Fights: Jamall Emmers (1-2-0)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#60FW] Nate Landwehr (18-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 1
2023-11-11: W vs. [#512LW] Dennis Buzukja (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2023-06-24: L vs. [#156FW] Jack Jenkins (13-4-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Miranda (1-2-0)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#95FW] Morgan Charriere (20-11-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:27 of round 2
2023-09-09: W vs. [*] Shane Young (13-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:59 of round 1
2022-09-03: L vs. [#26LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jamall Emmers -346 73.95%
Elo K170 Jamall Emmers 1541.33 +126.36 67.42%
Elo Modified Jamall Emmers 1608.27 +151.43 70.51%
Glicko-1 Jamall Emmers 1639.21 +148.80 70.20%
WHR Jamall Emmers 1593.26 +183.80 74.23%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jamall Emmers 35.7, Gabriel Miranda 35.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jamall Emmers 364, Gabriel Miranda 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#141][#59UFC] Austin Hubbard (16-8-0, +160) vs. [#190][#68UFC] Marquel Mederos (9-1-0, -197)

Last 3 Fights: Austin Hubbard (1-2-0)
2024-10-05: L vs. [#87LW] Alexander Hernandez (16-8-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#359LW] Michal Figlak (8-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#119LW] Kurt Holobaugh (21-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:39 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Marquel Mederos (3-0-0)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#433LW] Landon Quinones (7-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-10: W vs. [*] Issa Isakov (14-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:09 of round 1
2023-06-25: W vs. [#1685LW] Justice Lamperez (9-16-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:53 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marquel Mederos -197 63.29%
Elo K170 Marquel Mederos 1581.79 +2.38 50.34%
Elo Modified Austin Hubbard 1641.87 +54.72 57.81%
Glicko-1 Austin Hubbard 1669.02 +38.99 55.59%
WHR Austin Hubbard 1569.63 +115.25 66.00%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Austin Hubbard 33.2, Marquel Mederos 28.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Austin Hubbard 175, Marquel Mederos 420
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Brandon Moreno
Highest Stored DD Rating: Brandon Moreno
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2025-3-25

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