Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig (11-18-2023)

Nov 13, 2023
Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#10] Brendan Allen (22-5-0, -289) vs. [#17] Paul Craig (17-6-1, +226)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#37MW] Bruno Silva (23-10-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#22MW] Andre Muniz (23-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 3
2022-10-01: W vs. [#41LHW] Krzysztof Jotko (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (1-2-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#22MW] Andre Muniz (23-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:40 of round 2
2023-01-21: L vs. [#10LHW] Johnny Walker (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1
2022-07-23: L vs. [#15LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brendan Allen -289 70.77%
Elo K170 Brendan Allen 2060.02 +235.76 74.59%
Elo Modified Brendan Allen 2066.88 +226.93 72.98%
Glicko-1 Brendan Allen 2141.48 +237.48 79.69%
WHR Brendan Allen 1930.45 +98.55 61.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 147, Paul Craig 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#31] Michael Morales (15-0-0, -263) vs. [#52] Jake Matthews (19-6-0, +207)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Morales (3-0-0)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#33WW] Max Griffin (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#226WW] Adam Fugitt (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 3
2022-01-22: W vs. [#114WW] Trevin Giles (16-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jake Matthews (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#148WW] Darrius Flowers (12-6-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 2
2022-12-17: L vs. [#67WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-06-11: W vs. [#76WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michael Morales -263 68.98%
Elo K170 Michael Morales 1826.39 +78.16 58.83%
Elo Modified Michael Morales 1826.35 +73.40 57.96%
Glicko-1 Michael Morales 1887.61 +88.90 62.52%
WHR Michael Morales 1798.42 +140.05 65.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Morales 140, Jake Matthews 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#140] Jordan Leavitt (11-2-0, +196) vs. [#240] Chase Hooper (12-3-1, -249)

Last 3 Fights: Jordan Leavitt (2-1-0)
2023-02-25: W vs. [#332LW] Victor Martinez (13-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Knees) in 2:33 of round 1
2022-07-23: L vs. [#44LW] Paddy Pimblett (20-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:46 of round 2
2022-04-16: W vs. [#173LW] Trey Ogden (16-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Chase Hooper (2-1-0)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#556LW] Nick Fiore (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2022-10-29: L vs. [#59FW] Steve Garcia (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
2022-05-21: W vs. [#169FW] Felipe Dias Colares (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chase Hooper -249 67.86%
Elo K170 Jordan Leavitt 1680.43 +224.96 73.65%
Elo Modified Jordan Leavitt 1660.58 +156.05 66.45%
Glicko-1 Jordan Leavitt 1673.48 +144.39 69.66%
WHR Jordan Leavitt 1600.17 +105.77 61.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jordan Leavitt 266, Chase Hooper 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#191] Payton Talbott (6-0-0, -566) vs. [#687] Nick Aguirre (7-1-0, +385)

Last 3 Fights: Payton Talbott (3-0-0)
2023-08-08: W vs. [#633BW] Reyes Cortez Jr. (7-3-0) via UD ()
2023-03-18: W vs. [#356BW] Cristhian Rivas (9-2-1) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:35 of round 3
2022-10-22: W vs. [#1399FW] Anthony Jimenez (5-6-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 4:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Nick Aguirre (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#135BW] Dan Argueta (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-17: W vs. [NA] Brandon Clawson (7-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:34 of round 2
2022-08-12: W vs. [#1630BW] Tyler Dehaven (3-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:25 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Payton Talbott -566 80.47%
Elo K170 Payton Talbott 1458.18 +195.51 70.96%
Elo Modified Payton Talbott 1541.25 +270.76 76.59%
Glicko-1 Payton Talbott 1492.71 +180.78 73.90%
WHR Payton Talbott 1491.17 +256.04 76.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Payton Talbott 102, Nick Aguirre 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#16FLY] Amanda Ribas (11-4-0, -315) vs. [#18] Luana Pinheiro (11-1-0, +241)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (1-2-0)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#7FLY] Maycee Barber (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#9FLY] Viviane Araujo (12-5-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2022-05-14: L vs. [#6FLY] Katlyn Chookagian (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Luana Pinheiro (3-0-0)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#40SW] Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-11-20: W vs. [#33SW] Sam Hughes (8-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-05-01: W vs. [*] Randa Markos (11-11-1) via Disqualification (Illegal Upkick) in 4:16 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Ribas -315 72.12%
Elo K170 Amanda Ribas 1575.48 +20.54 52.35%
Elo Modified Amanda Ribas 1619.28 +123.35 63.18%
Glicko-1 Amanda Ribas 1581.95 +86.50 62.20%
WHR Amanda Ribas 1596.84 +163.82 67.88%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Ribas 147, Luana Pinheiro 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#58] Uros Medic (9-1-0, -248) vs. [#74] Jonny Parsons (9-3-0, +197)

Last 3 Fights: Uros Medic (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#67WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-6-0) via TKO (Spinning Backfist and Punches) in 2:36 of round 3
2022-05-21: W vs. [#309LW] Omar Morales (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2
2021-09-25: L vs. [#29LW] Jalin Turner (13-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jonny Parsons (3-0-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#90WW] Danny Roberts (18-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2
2021-10-19: W vs. [#55WW] Solomon Renfro (11-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-06-11: W vs. [#289WW] Ricardo Chavez (17-20-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 3:26 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Uros Medic -248 67.91%
Elo K170 Uros Medic 1614.85 +22.07 52.52%
Elo Modified Uros Medic 1639.38 +84.79 59.18%
Glicko-1 Uros Medic 1680.72 +105.91 64.79%
WHR Uros Medic 1680.87 +154.45 66.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uros Medic 112, Jonny Parsons 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#100] Christian Leroy Duncan (8-1-0, -134) vs. [#181] Cesar Almeida (4-0-0, +110)

Last 3 Fights: Christian Leroy Duncan (2-1-0)
2023-06-17: L vs. [#62MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#118MW] Dusko Todorovic (12-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:52 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [#583MW] Marian Dimitrov (10-4-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) in 4:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Cesar Almeida (3-0-0)
2023-08-08: W vs. [#204MW] Lucas Fernando (9-2-0) via UD ()
2021-12-18: W vs. [NA] Danilo de Souza Silva (7-33-1) via KO in 0:38 of round 1
2021-06-27: W vs. [#221MW] Vitor Ferreira Costa (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 04:51 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Christian Leroy Duncan -134 54.59%
Elo K170 Christian Leroy Duncan 1566.71 +236.09 74.62%
Elo Modified Christian Leroy Duncan 1623.01 +226.59 72.94%
Glicko-1 Christian Leroy Duncan 1606.25 +228.37 78.83%
WHR Christian Leroy Duncan 1572.71 +27.95 53.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Christian Leroy Duncan 154, Cesar Almeida 102
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#173] Trey Ogden (16-6-0, +119) vs. [#257] Nikolas Motta (13-5-0, -145)

Last 3 Fights: Trey Ogden (1-2-0)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#93LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#65LW] Daniel Zellhuber (14-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-04-16: L vs. [#140LW] Jordan Leavitt (11-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Nikolas Motta (1-2-0)
2023-06-17: L vs. [#119LW] Manuel Torres (14-2-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:50 of round 1
2022-09-17: W vs. [#532LW] Cameron VanCamp (15-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:49 of round 1
2022-02-19: L vs. [#50LW] Jim Miller (36-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Nikolas Motta -145 56.44%
Elo K170 Trey Ogden 1528.62 +25.30 52.88%
Elo Modified Trey Ogden 1598.58 +70.53 57.66%
Glicko-1 Trey Ogden 1627.88 +129.05 67.76%
WHR Trey Ogden 1546.98 +108.04 62.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Trey Ogden 224, Nikolas Motta 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#26] Lucie Pudilova (14-8-0, +118) vs. [#29] Ailin Perez (8-2-0, -145)

Last 3 Fights: Lucie Pudilova (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#25BW] Joselyne Edwards (13-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [#73BW] Yanan Wu (12-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:04 of round 2
2022-04-09: W vs. [*] Caroline Yariwake da Cruz (8-5-0) via DEC ()

Last 3 Fights: Ailin Perez (2-1-0)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#76BW] Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-26)
2022-09-03: L vs. [#22BW] Stephanie Egger (8-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:54 of round 2
2022-05-22: W vs. [*] Stephanie Bragayrac (9-5-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ailin Perez -145 56.33%
Elo K170 Lucie Pudilova 1320.38 +12.03 51.37%
Elo Modified Ailin Perez 1383.76 +6.28 50.69%
Glicko-1 Lucie Pudilova 1392.34 +18.97 52.73%
WHR Ailin Perez 1326.47 +17.36 51.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lucie Pudilova 217, Ailin Perez 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#97] Caio Machado (8-1-1, +258) vs. [#105] Michael Parkin (7-0-0, -343)

Last 3 Fights: Caio Machado (3-0-0)
2023-08-08: W vs. [#215HW+] Kevin Szaflarski (11-2-0) via UD ()
2022-12-01: W vs. [#268HW+] Edison Lopes (12-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:59 of round 1
2021-10-01: W vs. [#422HW+] Lee Mein (13-17-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:55 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Parkin (3-0-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#152HW+] Jamal Pogues (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-08-23: W vs. [#228HW+] Eduardo Neves (6-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:57 of round 1
2022-05-21: W vs. [NA] Fatih Aktas (9-13-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:43 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michael Parkin -343 73.49%
Elo K170 Caio Machado 1524.30 +69.92 57.92%
Elo Modified Caio Machado 1526.43 +54.37 55.92%
Glicko-1 Caio Machado 1547.21 +73.95 60.49%
WHR Caio Machado 1492.64 +8.56 50.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Caio Machado 102, Michael Parkin 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#30] Jonathan Pearce (14-4-0, -154) vs. [#55] Joanderson Brito (15-3-1, +126)

Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Pearce (3-0-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#62FW] Darren Elkins (28-11-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-23: W vs. [#102FW] Makwan Amirkhani (17-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 2
2022-02-19: W vs. [#142FW] Christian Rodriguez (10-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Joanderson Brito (3-0-0)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#565FW] Westin Wilson (16-8-0) via TKO in 2:54 of round 1
2022-10-15: W vs. [#127FW] Lucas Alexander (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:02 of round 1
2022-04-30: W vs. [#60FW] Andre Fili (22-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jonathan Pearce -154 57.80%
Elo K170 Joanderson Brito 1780.82 +0.82 50.10%
Elo Modified Jonathan Pearce 1801.78 +20.23 52.21%
Glicko-1 Joanderson Brito 1838.62 +10.88 51.57%
WHR Joanderson Brito 1769.07 +8.39 50.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jonathan Pearce 350, Joanderson Brito 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#190] Chad Anheliger (12-6-0, +160) vs. [#202] Jose Johnson (16-8-0, -196)

Last 3 Fights: Chad Anheliger (2-1-0)
2022-09-10: L vs. [#70BW] Heili Alateng (16-9-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-19: W vs. [#493FW] Jesse Strader (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:33 of round 3
2021-09-07: W vs. [#102BW] Muin Gafurov (19-6-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Jose Johnson (2-1-0)
2023-08-12: L vs. [#76BW] DaMon Blackshear (14-6-1) via Submission (Twister) in 3:47 of round 1
2022-08-16: W vs. [#214BW] Jack Cartwright (11-1-0) via UD ()
2022-02-11: W vs. [*] Dulani Perry (4-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jose Johnson -196 63.25%
Elo K170 Chad Anheliger 1495.46 +22.16 52.53%
Elo Modified Jose Johnson 1486.70 +28.41 53.10%
Glicko-1 Chad Anheliger 1515.01 +8.64 51.24%
WHR Chad Anheliger 1452.20 +47.72 55.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chad Anheliger 434, Jose Johnson 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#39] Rafael Ramos Estevam (11-0-0, -112) vs. [#62] Charles Johnson (13-5-0, -109)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Ramos Estevam (3-0-0)
2022-09-27: W vs. [#205FLY] Joao Elias (17-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:25 of round 2
2021-07-18: W vs. [#378BW] Filipe Esteves (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 2
2020-09-27: W vs. [#263LW] Erick Visconde (12-2-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Charles Johnson (1-2-0)
2023-04-29: L vs. [#17FLY] Cody Durden (16-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-25: L vs. [#61FLY] Ode Osbourne (12-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#164FLY] Jimmy Flick (16-7-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:33 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rafael Ramos Estevam -112 50.32%
Elo K170 Rafael Ramos Estevam 1676.99 +229.69 74.06%
Elo Modified Rafael Ramos Estevam 1683.82 +183.72 69.09%
Glicko-1 Rafael Ramos Estevam 1746.81 +214.81 77.50%
WHR Rafael Ramos Estevam 1745.48 +268.79 77.35%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Ramos Estevam 417, Charles Johnson 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#127] Lucas Alexander (8-3-0, -315) vs. [#310LW] Jeka Asparido Saragih (13-3-0, +243)

Last 3 Fights: Lucas Alexander (2-1-0)
2023-03-25: W vs. [#167FW] Steven Peterson (19-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-10-15: L vs. [#55FW] Joanderson Brito (15-3-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:02 of round 1
2022-02-11: W vs. [*] Jacob Kilburn (8-7-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 1:51 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jeka Asparido Saragih (2-1-0)
2023-02-04: L vs. [#246LW] Anshul Jubli (7-1-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:44 of round 2
2022-10-23: W vs. [#516LW] Won Bin Ki (17-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:41 of round 1
2022-06-09: W vs. [#282LHW] Pawan Maan Singh (8-3-1) via KO (Spinning Backfist) in 2:24 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lucas Alexander -315 72.25%
Elo K170 Jeka Asparido Saragih 1482.81 +10.06 51.15%
Elo Modified Jeka Asparido Saragih 1518.93 +19.50 52.13%
Glicko-1 Jeka Asparido Saragih 1528.96 +19.08 52.74%
WHR Lucas Alexander 1465.93 +19.76 52.25%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lucas Alexander 238, Jeka Asparido Saragih 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Brendan Allen
Highest Stored DD Rating: Brendan Allen
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2023-11-12

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