Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 (09-16-2023)

Sep 11, 2023
Jason

Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#2DD/#2P4P] Alexa Grasso (16-3-0, +143) vs. [#2/#5DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-0, -175)
Alexa Grasso is the All-Time #33 ranked Women’s fighter.
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#2FLY/#5DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 4:34 of round 4
2022-10-15: W vs. [#16FLY] Viviane Araujo (11-5-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#22FLY] Joanne Wood (16-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (2-1-0)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#1FLY/#2DD/#2P4P] Alexa Grasso (16-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 4:34 of round 4
2022-06-11: W vs. [#8FLY] Taila Santos (19-3-0) via SD (49-46, 48-47, 47-48)
2021-09-25: W vs. [#13FLY] Lauren Murphy (16-6-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:00 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valentina Shevchenko -175 60.73%
Elo K170 Valentina Shevchenko 1896.04 +17.27 51.97%
Elo Modified Alexa Grasso 1872.50 +13.55 51.48%
Glicko-1 Alexa Grasso 1893.34 +36.88 55.29%
WHR Alexa Grasso 1826.87 +31.26 53.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexa Grasso 196, Valentina Shevchenko 196
Previous Match-up Record: Alexa Grasso leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#7] Kevin Holland (25-9-0, -114) vs. [#21] Jack Della Maddalena (15-2-0, -110)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (2-1-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#26WW] Michael Chiesa (16-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1
2023-04-08: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 3
2022-12-03: L vs. [#6WW] Stephen Thompson (17-6-1) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Jack Della Maddalena (3-0-0)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#89WW] Bassil Hafez (8-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#34WW] Randy Brown (17-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 1
2022-11-19: W vs. [#96WW] Danny Roberts (18-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:24 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -114 50.42%
Elo K170 Kevin Holland 1995.99 +53.67 56.10%
Elo Modified Kevin Holland 1994.71 +132.24 64.08%
Glicko-1 Kevin Holland 2067.29 +162.30 71.79%
WHR Kevin Holland 1853.11 +67.55 57.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 49, Jack Della Maddalena 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#276] Raul Rosas Jr. (7-1-0, -565) vs. [#463] Terrence Mitchell (15-3-0, +373)

Last 3 Fights: Raul Rosas Jr. (2-1-0)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#147BW] Christian Rodriguez (9-1-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#500FW] Jay Perrin (11-7-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:44 of round 1
2022-09-20: W vs. [#591FW] Mando Gutierrez (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Terrence Mitchell (2-1-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#125BW] Cameron Saaiman (9-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:10 of round 1
2023-04-28: W vs. [#1229BW] Christian Alexander (1-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#2405FW] Skyler Schlosser (4-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:00 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Raul Rosas Jr. -565 80.07%
Elo K170 Terrence Mitchell 1385.92 +23.26 52.65%
Elo Modified Raul Rosas Jr. 1408.75 +38.06 54.16%
Glicko-1 Raul Rosas Jr. 1411.69 +13.75 51.98%
WHR Raul Rosas Jr. 1380.51 +21.30 52.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raul Rosas Jr. 161, Terrence Mitchell 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#68] Christos Giagos (20-10-0, +198) vs. [#119] Daniel Zellhuber (13-1-0, -254)

Last 3 Fights: Christos Giagos (1-2-0)
2023-04-22: W vs. [#126LW] Ricky Glenn (22-7-2) via KO (Punch) in 1:35 of round 1
2022-06-25: L vs. [#44LW] Thiago Moises (17-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:05 of round 1
2021-09-18: L vs. [#14LW] Arman Tsarukyan (20-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Zellhuber (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#257LW] Lando Vannata (12-7-2) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-09-17: L vs. [#167LW] Trey Ogden (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-09-28: W vs. [#151FW] Lucas Almeida (14-2-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Daniel Zellhuber -254 68.13%
Elo K170 Christos Giagos 1747.87 +119.96 63.37%
Elo Modified Christos Giagos 1732.84 +71.70 57.78%
Glicko-1 Christos Giagos 1757.19 +58.19 58.30%
WHR Christos Giagos 1705.45 +146.05 66.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Christos Giagos 147, Daniel Zellhuber 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#77] Fernando Padilla (15-4-0, -262) vs. [#122] Kyle Nelson (14-5-1, +200)

Last 3 Fights: Fernando Padilla (3-0-0)
2023-04-29: W vs. [#106FW] Julian Erosa (28-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1
2021-05-16: W vs. [#364FW] Cameron Graves (11-8-0) via TKO (Elbow) in 1:19 of round 2
2021-02-12: W vs. [#114FW] Nate Richardson (10-4-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Nelson (1-1-1)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#180FW] Blake Bilder (8-1-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-02-04: D vs. [#197FW] Doo Ho Choi (14-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2022-07-23: L vs. [#135LW] Jai Herbert (12-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Fernando Padilla -262 68.47%
Elo K170 Fernando Padilla 1604.32 +36.25 54.13%
Elo Modified Fernando Padilla 1594.90 +29.36 53.21%
Glicko-1 Fernando Padilla 1644.28 +80.01 61.32%
WHR Fernando Padilla 1651.17 +143.79 65.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fernando Padilla 140, Kyle Nelson 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#12] Lupita Godinez (10-3-0, -464) vs. [#43] Elise Reed (7-3-0, +322)

Last 3 Fights: Lupita Godinez (2-1-0)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#24SW] Emily Ducote (12-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#21SW] Cynthia Calvillo (9-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2022-08-13: L vs. [#11SW] Angela Hill (15-13-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Elise Reed (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#77SW] Jinh Yu Frey (11-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#22SW] Konklak Suphisara (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:44 of round 2
2022-09-10: W vs. [#135SW] Melissa Martinez (7-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lupita Godinez -464 77.63%
Elo K170 Lupita Godinez 1548.62 +182.16 69.68%
Elo Modified Lupita Godinez 1543.54 +160.06 66.84%
Glicko-1 Lupita Godinez 1525.56 +211.98 77.21%
WHR Lupita Godinez 1463.78 +239.79 74.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lupita Godinez 119, Elise Reed 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lupita Godinez leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#53] Roman Kopylov (11-2-0, -272) vs. [#111] Josh Fremd (11-4-0, +208)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Kopylov (3-0-0)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#148MW] Claudio Ribeiro (11-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:33 of round 2
2023-01-14: W vs. [#85MW] Punahele Soriano (9-3-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 3:19 of round 2
2022-09-03: W vs. [#124MW] Alessio Di Chirico (13-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Josh Fremd (2-1-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#190MW] Jamie Pickett (13-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#136MW] Sedriques Dumas (9-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:00 of round 2
2022-10-29: L vs. [#170MW] Tresean Gore (4-2-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:49 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Roman Kopylov -272 69.24%
Elo K170 Roman Kopylov 1744.08 +268.07 77.29%
Elo Modified Roman Kopylov 1786.77 +257.25 75.51%
Glicko-1 Roman Kopylov 1859.78 +347.78 88.10%
WHR Roman Kopylov 1740.01 +224.64 73.62%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Kopylov 49, Josh Fremd 35
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#158] Edgar Chairez (10-5-0, -229) vs. [#423] Daniel da Silva (12-5-0, +178)

Last 3 Fights: Edgar Chairez (2-1-0)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#21FLY] Tatsuro Taira (14-0-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2023-03-24: W vs. [#194FLY] Gianni Di Chiara Vazquez (8-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:04 of round 4
2022-11-25: W vs. [#1321BW] Roberto Guerrero (7-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:03 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel da Silva (0-3-0)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#69FLY] C.J. Vergara (12-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 2
2022-08-20: L vs. [#76FLY] Victor Altamirano (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 1
2022-04-30: L vs. [#129FLY] Francisco Figueiredo (13-5-1) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:18 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edgar Chairez -229 65.92%
Elo K170 Edgar Chairez 1373.96 +147.33 66.22%
Elo Modified Edgar Chairez 1386.58 +115.69 62.40%
Glicko-1 Edgar Chairez 1414.65 +186.63 74.54%
WHR Edgar Chairez 1390.85 +156.18 67.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edgar Chairez 70, Daniel da Silva 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#17] Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-2-0, +103) vs. [*] Tracy Cortez (10-1-0, -129)

Last 3 Fights: Jasmine Jasudavicius (2-1-0)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#18FLY] Miranda Maverick (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-25: W vs. [#76FLY] Gabriella Fernandes (8-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2022-06-18: L vs. [#11FLY] Natalia Silva (16-5-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Tracy Cortez (3-0-0)
2022-05-07: W vs. [#33FLY] Melissa Gatto (8-2-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-04-17: W vs. [#29FLY] Justine Kish (9-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-10-10: W vs. [#20BW] Stephanie Egger (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tracy Cortez -129 53.34%
Elo K170 Tracy Cortez 1641.99 +80.81 59.13%
Elo Modified Jasmine Jasudavicius 1601.11 +1.68 50.18%
Glicko-1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 1602.96 +53.28 57.61%
WHR Jasmine Jasudavicius 1542.97 +30.49 53.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jasmine Jasudavicius 98, Tracy Cortez 497
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#497] Charlie Campbell (7-2-0) vs. [*] Alex Reyes (13-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Charlie Campbell (2-1-0)
2023-06-16: W vs. [#878LW] Josh Streacker (9-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 1
2022-08-02: L vs. [#139LW] Chris Duncan (11-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:43 of round 1
2022-04-15: W vs. [*] Guilherme Santos (5-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alex Reyes (2-1-0)
2017-09-16: L vs. [*] Mike Perry (14-8-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:19 of round 1
2017-08-24: W vs. [*] Gil Guardado (5-4-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 1:06 of round 1
2015-08-29: W vs. [*] Thomas Noel (3-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:40 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Alex Reyes 1551.32 +188.45 70.28%
Elo Modified Alex Reyes 1568.11 +189.75 69.65%
Glicko-1 Alex Reyes 1640.45 +251.24 80.94%
WHR Alex Reyes 1535.47 +187.63 70.21%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charlie Campbell 92, Alex Reyes 2191
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#29] Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (6-0-0) vs. [#82] Marnic Mann (6-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (3-0-0)
2023-08-22: W vs. [#101SW] Isis Verbeek (5-2-0) via UD ()
2023-02-25: W vs. [#71SW] Jacinta Austin (5-1-0) via SD ()
2022-06-10: W vs. [#78SW] Ye Dam Seo (7-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Marnic Mann (2-1-0)
2023-04-21: W vs. [#168SW] Amber Brown (7-7-0) via UD ()
2022-09-13: L vs. [#38SW] Bruna Brasil (9-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:33 of round 2
2022-04-22: W vs. [#236SW] Kelsey Arnesen (2-3-0) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 1503.69 +201.85 71.55%
Elo Modified Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 1554.96 +222.15 72.56%
Glicko-1 Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 1436.77 +169.65 72.64%
WHR Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 1393.74 +181.78 69.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 25, Marnic Mann 148
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kevin Holland
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alexa Grasso
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2023-9-10

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