Fight Matrix Program – UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo (05-06-2023)

May 1, 2023
Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#5DD/#5P4P] Aljamain Sterling (22-3-0, -110) vs. [*] Henry Cejudo (16-2-0, -113)
Aljamain Sterling is the All-Time #3 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Henry Cejudo is the All-Time #7 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Aljamain Sterling (3-0-0)
2022-10-22: W vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 2
2022-04-09: W vs. [#5BW] Petr Yan (16-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2021-03-06: W vs. [#5BW] Petr Yan (16-5-0) via Disqualification (Illegal Knee) in 4:29 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (3-0-0)
2020-05-09: W vs. [#12BW] Dominick Cruz (24-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:58 of round 2
2019-06-08: W vs. [#94FW] Marlon Moraes (23-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2019-01-19: W vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:32 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Henry Cejudo -113 50.31%
Elo K170 Aljamain Sterling 2353.49 +70.92 58.03%
Elo Modified Aljamain Sterling 2216.62 +19.35 52.12%
Glicko-1 Aljamain Sterling 2290.28 +0.05 50.01%
WHR Aljamain Sterling 2065.22 +3.26 50.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aljamain Sterling 196, Henry Cejudo 1092
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Henry Cejudo leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#4] Gilbert Burns (22-5-0, -131) vs. [#5] Belal Muhammad (22-3-0, +104)
Gilbert Burns is the All-Time #24 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Belal Muhammad is the All-Time #32 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (2-1-0)
2023-04-08: W vs. [*] Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#13WW] Neil Magny (27-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2022-04-09: L vs. [#5MW] Khamzat Chimaev (12-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Belal Muhammad (3-0-0)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#15WW] Sean Brady (15-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 2
2022-04-16: W vs. [#10WW] Vicente Luque (21-9-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-12-18: W vs. [#7WW] Stephen Thompson (17-6-1) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Gilbert Burns -131 53.63%
Elo K170 Belal Muhammad 2292.32 +50.07 55.69%
Elo Modified Belal Muhammad 2248.81 +43.34 54.73%
Glicko-1 Belal Muhammad 2311.95 +40.17 55.75%
WHR Belal Muhammad 2081.64 +21.76 52.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gilbert Burns 28, Belal Muhammad 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#4/#9DD] Jessica Andrade (24-10-0, -190) vs. [#7] Xiaonan Yan (16-3-0, +153)
Jessica Andrade is the All-Time #16 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Andrade (2-1-0)
2023-02-18: L vs. [#4FLY] Erin Blanchfield (11-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
2023-01-21: W vs. [#10FLY] Lauren Murphy (16-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-25)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#5SW] Amanda Lemos (13-2-1) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:13 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (1-2-0)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#9SW] Mackenzie Dern (12-3-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)
2022-03-05: L vs. [#6SW] Marina Rodriguez (16-2-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-05-22: L vs. [#2SW/#6DD/#6P4P] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jessica Andrade -190 62.37%
Elo K170 Jessica Andrade 1773.22 +67.76 57.68%
Elo Modified Jessica Andrade 1781.73 +98.12 60.58%
Glicko-1 Jessica Andrade 1786.26 +158.39 71.34%
WHR Jessica Andrade 1740.33 +173.36 68.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Andrade 77, Xiaonan Yan 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#12] Movsar Evloev (16-0-0, -260) vs. [#23] Bryce Mitchell (15-1-0, +200)

Last 3 Fights: Movsar Evloev (3-0-0)
2022-06-04: W vs. [#11FW] Dan Ige (16-6-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-06-12: W vs. [#60FW] Hakeem Dawodu (13-3-1) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2021-01-23: W vs. [*] Nik Lentz (30-12-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Bryce Mitchell (2-1-0)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#10FW] Ilia Topuria (13-0-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2
2022-03-05: W vs. [#17FW] Edson Barboza (23-11-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
2020-10-31: W vs. [#47FW] Andre Fili (22-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Movsar Evloev -260 68.42%
Elo K170 Movsar Evloev 2042.85 +220.95 73.29%
Elo Modified Movsar Evloev 1972.15 +135.89 64.45%
Glicko-1 Movsar Evloev 1976.89 +149.24 70.25%
WHR Movsar Evloev 1906.43 +143.01 65.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Movsar Evloev 336, Bryce Mitchell 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#42] Charles Jourdain (13-6-1, -188) vs. [*] Kron Gracie (5-1-0, +151)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Jourdain (1-2-0)
2022-09-03: L vs. [#32FW] Nathaniel Wood (19-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-16: L vs. [#59LW] Shane Burgos (15-4-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#239LW] Lando Vannata (12-7-2) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:32 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kron Gracie (2-1-0)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#32BW] Cub Swanson (28-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#21FW] Alex Caceres (20-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 1
2016-12-31: W vs. [*] Tatsuya Kawajiri (37-14-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Charles Jourdain -188 62.10%
Elo K170 Charles Jourdain 1560.57 +64.91 57.36%
Elo Modified Charles Jourdain 1604.80 +2.75 50.30%
Glicko-1 Charles Jourdain 1652.04 +69.05 59.81%
WHR Kron Gracie 1570.57 +5.77 50.66%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Jourdain 245, Kron Gracie 1302
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#15] Drew Dober (26-11-0, -219) vs. [#99] Matt Frevola (10-3-1, +172)

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (3-0-0)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#28LW] Bobby Green (29-14-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:45 of round 2
2022-07-30: W vs. [#120LW] Rafael Alves (20-12-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 1:30 of round 3
2022-03-12: W vs. [#137LW] Terrance McKinney (13-5-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matt Frevola (2-1-0)
2022-11-12: W vs. [#209LW] Ottman Azaitar (13-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1
2022-01-22: W vs. [#561LW] Genaro Valdez (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
2021-06-12: L vs. [#137LW] Terrance McKinney (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:07 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Drew Dober -219 65.12%
Elo K170 Drew Dober 1924.39 +233.45 74.39%
Elo Modified Drew Dober 1896.96 +222.18 72.56%
Glicko-1 Drew Dober 1983.08 +259.85 81.69%
WHR Drew Dober 1892.40 +278.51 78.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Drew Dober 140, Matt Frevola 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Drew Dober leads 2-0
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#33] Devin Clark (14-7-0, +167) vs. [#46] Kennedy Nzechukwu (11-3-0, -212)

Last 3 Fights: Devin Clark (2-1-0)
2023-02-04: W vs. [#45LHW] Da Woon Jung (15-4-1) via UD ()
2022-08-13: L vs. [#17LHW] Azamat Murzakanov (13-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 3
2022-04-16: W vs. [#115HW+] William Knight (11-5-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 3:21 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (2-1-0)
2022-11-19: W vs. [#28LHW] Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:02 of round 2
2022-07-09: W vs. [#123LHW] Karl Roberson (9-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:19 of round 3
2022-03-05: L vs. [#80LHW] Nicolae Negumereanu (13-2-0) via SD (29-27, 27-29, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kennedy Nzechukwu -212 64.46%
Elo K170 Devin Clark 1672.33 +58.90 56.69%
Elo Modified Devin Clark 1685.33 +22.49 52.46%
Glicko-1 Devin Clark 1718.88 +21.49 53.09%
WHR Kennedy Nzechukwu 1681.01 +50.08 55.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Devin Clark 91, Kennedy Nzechukwu 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#46] Kalinn Williams (13-3-0, -316) vs. [#288] Rolando Bedoya (14-1-0, +238)

Last 3 Fights: Kalinn Williams (2-1-0)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#35WW] Randy Brown (16-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2021-11-13: W vs. [#75WW] Miguel Baeza (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:02 of round 3
2021-06-19: W vs. [#56WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Rolando Bedoya (3-0-0)
2022-03-10: W vs. [#914WW] Pablo Dhorta (10-2-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2021-07-17: W vs. [#1167WW] Diego Mauricio Jaimes Ota (18-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:33 of round 3
2019-08-31: W vs. [#556WW] Washington Nunes da Silva (8-5-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kalinn Williams -316 71.96%
Elo K170 Kalinn Williams 1690.55 +114.04 62.74%
Elo Modified Kalinn Williams 1752.81 +168.36 67.64%
Glicko-1 Kalinn Williams 1812.17 +198.06 75.77%
WHR Kalinn Williams 1684.20 +99.16 61.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kalinn Williams 364, Rolando Bedoya 422
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#6] Marina Rodriguez (16-2-2, -165) vs. [#12] Virna Jandiroba (18-3-0, +134)

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (2-1-0)
2022-11-05: L vs. [#5SW] Amanda Lemos (13-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 3
2022-03-05: W vs. [#7SW] Xiaonan Yan (16-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-10-09: W vs. [#9SW] Mackenzie Dern (12-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Virna Jandiroba (2-1-0)
2022-05-14: W vs. [#8SW] Angela Hill (15-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-30: L vs. [#9FLY] Amanda Ribas (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-06-19: W vs. [*] Kanako Murata (12-2-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 5:00 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marina Rodriguez -165 59.29%
Elo K170 Marina Rodriguez 1726.36 +172.10 68.70%
Elo Modified Marina Rodriguez 1693.92 +99.98 60.77%
Glicko-1 Marina Rodriguez 1659.24 +59.88 58.53%
WHR Virna Jandiroba 1615.24 +15.08 51.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marina Rodriguez 182, Virna Jandiroba 357
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marina Rodriguez leads 2-0
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#122] Parker Porter (12-8-0, -184) vs. [#125] Braxton Smith (5-1-0, +147)

Last 3 Fights: Parker Porter (1-2-0)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#91HW+] Justin Tafa (6-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1
2022-05-21: L vs. [#29HW+] Jailton Almeida (19-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:35 of round 1
2022-02-19: W vs. [#277HW+] Alan Baudot (8-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Braxton Smith (3-0-0)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#308HW+] Jakori Savage (3-2-0) via KO in 0:44 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [NA] Cameron Chism-Brungard (3-5-0) via NC in 1:40 of round 1
2022-08-13: W vs. [#261HW+] Edison Lopes (12-8-0) via KO in 2:03 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Parker Porter -184 61.54%
Elo K170 Parker Porter 1350.75 +6.80 50.78%
Elo Modified Braxton Smith 1417.07 +9.32 51.02%
Glicko-1 Parker Porter 1384.99 +5.39 50.78%
WHR Braxton Smith 1481.77 +112.58 62.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Parker Porter 84, Braxton Smith 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Parker Porter leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#83] Phil Hawes (12-4-0, +172) vs. [#84] Ikram Aliskerov (13-1-0, -218)

Last 3 Fights: Phil Hawes (1-2-0)
2022-10-29: L vs. [#15MW] Roman Dolidze (12-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 1
2022-06-18: W vs. [#209MW] Deron Winn (7-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:25 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#23MW] Chris Curtis (30-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:27 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ikram Aliskerov (3-0-0)
2022-09-13: W vs. [#325WW] Mario Filipe de Sousa (16-4-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-03-11: W vs. [#194WW] Nah-Shon Burrell (19-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-03-25: W vs. [*] Miro Jurkovic (11-5-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:11 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ikram Aliskerov -218 65.09%
Elo K170 Ikram Aliskerov 1697.10 +104.00 61.66%
Elo Modified Ikram Aliskerov 1735.13 +99.31 60.70%
Glicko-1 Ikram Aliskerov 1786.09 +148.02 70.10%
WHR Ikram Aliskerov 1774.86 +158.95 67.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Phil Hawes 189, Ikram Aliskerov 235
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#33] Rafael Ramos Estevam (11-0-0, -160) vs. [#52] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8-0, +130)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov is the All-Time #49 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Ramos Estevam (3-0-0)
2022-09-27: W vs. [#166FLY] Joao Elias (17-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:25 of round 2
2021-07-18: W vs. [#828BW] Filipe Esteves (8-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 2
2020-09-27: W vs. [#246LW] Erick Visconde (12-2-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Zhalgas Zhumagulov (0-3-0)
2022-11-19: L vs. [#51FLY] Charles Johnson (13-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-06-04: L vs. [#31FLY] Jeff Molina (11-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2021-12-04: L vs. [#7FLY] Manel Kape (18-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rafael Ramos Estevam -160 58.59%
Elo K170 Rafael Ramos Estevam 1677.06 +317.30 80.99%
Elo Modified Rafael Ramos Estevam 1684.27 +208.18 71.33%
Glicko-1 Rafael Ramos Estevam 1746.88 +224.85 78.49%
WHR Rafael Ramos Estevam 1740.80 +245.86 75.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Ramos Estevam 221, Zhalgas Zhumagulov 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#182] Claudio Ribeiro (10-3-0, -211) vs. [#184] Joseph Holmes (9-3-0, +169)

Last 3 Fights: Claudio Ribeiro (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#74MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:28 of round 2
2022-08-16: W vs. [#350MW] Ivan Valenzuela (8-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:25 of round 1
2021-09-24: W vs. [#575BW] Kelles Albuquerque (25-20-0) via in 02:29 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Joseph Holmes (1-2-0)
2022-10-29: L vs. [#42MW] Jun Yong Park (16-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:04 of round 2
2022-05-21: W vs. [#483MW] Alen Amedovski (8-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:04 of round 1
2022-01-15: L vs. [#178MW] Jamie Pickett (13-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Claudio Ribeiro -211 64.60%
Elo K170 Claudio Ribeiro 1453.83 +98.39 61.05%
Elo Modified Claudio Ribeiro 1501.76 +113.89 62.21%
Glicko-1 Claudio Ribeiro 1548.80 +134.18 68.40%
WHR Claudio Ribeiro 1473.65 +108.68 62.16%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Claudio Ribeiro 112, Joseph Holmes 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#129] Daniel Santos (12-2-0, -166) vs. [#209] Johnny Munoz Jr. (12-2-0, +133)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Santos (2-1-0)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#92BW] John Castaneda (19-6-0) via KO (Punches and Knee) in 4:28 of round 2
2022-04-09: L vs. [#72BW] Julio Arce (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#311FW] Zhunus Nizambek (10-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Munoz Jr. (2-1-0)
2022-11-05: W vs. [#552BW] Liudvik Sholinian (9-3-1) via UD ()
2022-06-04: L vs. [#80BW] Tony Gravely (23-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:08 of round 1
2021-08-07: W vs. [*] Jamey Simmons (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:35 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Daniel Santos -166 59.25%
Elo K170 Daniel Santos 1613.92 +107.46 62.03%
Elo Modified Daniel Santos 1630.49 +98.47 60.61%
Glicko-1 Daniel Santos 1686.20 +164.27 72.03%
WHR Daniel Santos 1605.72 +172.05 68.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Santos 217, Johnny Munoz Jr. 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Gilbert Burns
Highest Stored DD Rating: Aljamain Sterling
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2023-4-30

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