Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes (04-22-2023)

Apr 17, 2023
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Curtis Blaydes (17-3-0, -173) vs. [#5] Sergei Pavlovich (17-1-0, +139)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #26 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (3-0-0)
2022-07-23: W vs. [#11HW+] Tom Aspinall (12-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 0:15 of round 1
2022-03-26: W vs. [#16HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 2
2021-09-25: W vs. [#9HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (3-0-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#8HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2022-07-30: W vs. [#13HW+] Derrick Lewis (26-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 1
2022-03-19: W vs. [#102HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:03 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Curtis Blaydes -173 60.23%
Elo K170 Curtis Blaydes 2136.85 +127.57 64.17%
Elo Modified Curtis Blaydes 2137.00 +135.87 64.45%
Glicko-1 Curtis Blaydes 2213.54 +121.74 66.84%
WHR Curtis Blaydes 2011.93 +60.50 56.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 273, Sergei Pavlovich 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#11] Ricky Simon (21-3-0, -133) vs. [#12] Yadong Song (19-8-1, +109)

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Simon (3-0-0)
2022-07-16: W vs. [#43FW] Jack Shore (17-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:28 of round 2
2021-12-18: W vs. [*] Raphael Assuncao (28-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:14 of round 2
2021-02-13: W vs. [#98BW] Brian Kelleher (24-14-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2022-09-17: L vs. [#3BW] Cory Sandhagen (16-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2022-03-12: W vs. [#96FW] Marlon Moraes (23-12-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:06 of round 1
2021-11-13: W vs. [#74BW] Julio Arce (18-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:35 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ricky Simon -133 54.39%
Elo K170 Ricky Simon 2002.39 +159.03 67.40%
Elo Modified Ricky Simon 1952.10 +119.07 62.74%
Glicko-1 Ricky Simon 1985.64 +126.11 67.39%
WHR Ricky Simon 1880.37 +141.20 65.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricky Simon 280, Yadong Song 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#25] Brad Tavares (19-7-0, -157) vs. [#50] Bruno Silva (22-8-0, +130)

Last 3 Fights: Brad Tavares (2-1-0)
2022-07-02: L vs. [#8MW] Dricus Du Plessis (19-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-07-10: W vs. [#37LHW] Omari Akhmedov (24-8-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-01-23: W vs. [#22LHW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (15-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (1-2-0)
2022-08-13: L vs. [#35MW] Gerald Meerschaert (35-16-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:39 of round 3
2022-03-12: L vs. [#2MW] Alex Pereira (7-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-12-11: W vs. [#130LHW] Jordan Wright (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:28 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brad Tavares -157 58.42%
Elo K170 Brad Tavares 1809.75 +166.43 68.14%
Elo Modified Brad Tavares 1787.97 +98.63 60.63%
Glicko-1 Brad Tavares 1806.22 +67.17 59.55%
WHR Brad Tavares 1772.75 +97.38 60.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brad Tavares 294, Bruno Silva 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#28] Bobby Green (29-14-1, -289) vs. [#68] Jared Gordon (19-6-0, +228)

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (1-2-0)
2022-12-17: L vs. [#15LW] Drew Dober (26-11-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:45 of round 2
2022-02-26: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#3P4P] Islam Makhachev (24-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:23 of round 1
2022-02-12: W vs. [#55LW] Nasrat Haqparast (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (1-2-0)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#41LW] Paddy Pimblett (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [#99LW] Leonardo Santos (18-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-04-30: L vs. [#17LW] Grant Dawson (19-1-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:11 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bobby Green -289 70.90%
Elo K170 Bobby Green 1738.25 +6.73 50.77%
Elo Modified Bobby Green 1723.68 +21.62 52.36%
Glicko-1 Bobby Green 1767.98 +50.79 57.26%
WHR Bobby Green 1721.38 +22.51 52.57%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bobby Green 126, Jared Gordon 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#54] Iasmin Lucindo (13-5-0, -295) vs. [#100FLY] Brogan Walker (7-3-0, +232)

Last 3 Fights: Iasmin Lucindo (2-1-0)
2022-08-13: L vs. [#19SW] Yazmin Jauregui (10-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#115FLY] Lucrezia Ria (8-4-0) via UD ()
2021-11-13: W vs. [NA] Sharolayne Almeida (1-5-0) via TKO in 1:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brogan Walker (1-2-0)
2022-08-06: L vs. [#80FLY] Juliana Miller (3-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:57 of round 3
2021-08-27: W vs. [NA] Emilee King (5-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:28 of round 1
2020-07-30: L vs. [#4FLY] Erin Blanchfield (11-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Iasmin Lucindo -295 71.25%
Elo K170 Iasmin Lucindo 1351.48 +58.19 56.61%
Elo Modified Iasmin Lucindo 1352.26 +39.35 54.29%
Glicko-1 Iasmin Lucindo 1352.40 +111.59 65.53%
WHR Iasmin Lucindo 1303.51 +114.09 62.74%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Iasmin Lucindo 252, Brogan Walker 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#50] Jeremiah Wells (11-2-1, -139) vs. [#51] Matthew Semelsberger (11-4-0, +114)

Last 3 Fights: Jeremiah Wells (3-0-0)
2022-06-18: W vs. [#89WW] Court McGee (21-11-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:34 of round 1
2022-02-12: W vs. [#967WW] Mike Mathetha (3-2-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:38 of round 1
2021-06-26: W vs. [#87WW] Warlley Alves (14-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Matthew Semelsberger (2-1-0)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#56WW] Jake Matthews (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#36WW] Alex Morono (22-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#180WW] A.J. Fletcher (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jeremiah Wells -139 55.44%
Elo K170 Jeremiah Wells 1723.73 +21.56 52.46%
Elo Modified Jeremiah Wells 1744.27 +60.46 56.58%
Glicko-1 Jeremiah Wells 1798.23 +54.46 57.77%
WHR Jeremiah Wells 1737.95 +159.72 67.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeremiah Wells 308, Matthew Semelsberger 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[*] Ricky Glenn (22-6-2, -216) vs. [#94] Christos Giagos (19-10-0, +171)

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Glenn (1-1-1)
2021-10-23: D vs. [#17LW] Grant Dawson (19-1-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2021-06-19: W vs. [#105LW] Joaquim Silva (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:37 of round 1
2018-11-30: L vs. [*] Kevin Aguilar (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Christos Giagos (1-2-0)
2022-06-25: L vs. [#22LW] Thiago Moises (17-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:05 of round 1
2021-09-18: L vs. [#11LW] Arman Tsarukyan (19-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2021-05-15: W vs. [#346LW] Sean Soriano (14-9-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 0:59 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ricky Glenn -216 64.94%
Elo K170 Ricky Glenn 1785.92 +159.66 67.47%
Elo Modified Ricky Glenn 1723.24 +86.64 59.37%
Glicko-1 Ricky Glenn 1759.47 +128.19 67.65%
WHR Ricky Glenn 1728.77 +116.16 62.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricky Glenn 546, Christos Giagos 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#28] Montel Jackson (12-2-0, -615) vs. [*] Rani Yahya (28-10-1, +421)
Rani Yahya is the All-Time #33 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Montel Jackson (3-0-0)
2022-11-12: W vs. [#74BW] Julio Arce (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-09-18: W vs. [#263FLY] J.P. Buys (9-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-03-20: W vs. [#598BW] Jesse Strader (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rani Yahya (2-0-1)
2021-11-20: W vs. [#85BW] Kyung Ho Kang (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-03-13: W vs. [*] Ray Rodriguez (16-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:09 of round 2
2020-03-14: D vs. [#68FW] Enrique Barzola (20-7-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Montel Jackson -615 81.75%
Elo K170 Rani Yahya 1787.05 +30.99 53.53%
Elo Modified Montel Jackson 1778.51 +2.93 50.32%
Glicko-1 Rani Yahya 1825.40 +18.55 52.67%
WHR Montel Jackson 1725.75 +21.45 52.45%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Montel Jackson 161, Rani Yahya 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[#9] Norma Dumont (8-2-0, +118) vs. [#10] Karol Rosa (16-4-0, -144)

Last 3 Fights: Norma Dumont (2-1-0)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#43FW] Danyelle Wolf (1-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#10BW] Macy Chiasson (8-3-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2021-10-16: W vs. [#8FW] Aspen Ladd (10-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Karol Rosa (2-1-0)
2022-10-22: W vs. [*] Lina Lansberg (10-8-0) via MD (29-27, 28-28, 29-27)
2022-03-26: L vs. [#9BW] Sara McMann (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-02: W vs. [*] Bethe Correia (11-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karol Rosa -144 56.26%
Elo K170 Karol Rosa 1529.42 +46.63 55.31%
Elo Modified Norma Dumont 1557.15 +38.83 54.24%
Glicko-1 Norma Dumont 1500.34 +31.75 54.56%
WHR Karol Rosa 1490.45 +52.25 55.94%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Norma Dumont 224, Karol Rosa 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#108] Mohammed Usman (8-2-0, +186) vs. [#124] Junior Tafa (4-0-0, -233)

Last 3 Fights: Mohammed Usman (2-1-0)
2022-08-06: W vs. [#94LHW] Zac Pauga (6-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2
2021-05-06: L vs. [*] Brandon Sayles (6-2-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:42 of round 2
2020-08-28: W vs. [NA] Terrance Hodges (2-7-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Junior Tafa (3-0-0)
2022-12-31: W vs. [#193HW+] Tsuyoshi Kamiyama (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 1
2022-11-26: W vs. [#632HW+] Nicolas Djurdjevic (5-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 1
2022-08-05: W vs. [#399HW+] Kelvin Fitial (15-13-2) via KO (Punches) in 4:36 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Junior Tafa -233 66.67%
Elo K170 Mohammed Usman 1508.54 +150.94 66.59%
Elo Modified Mohammed Usman 1495.58 +46.15 55.03%
Glicko-1 Mohammed Usman 1463.93 +72.26 60.25%
WHR Mohammed Usman 1432.19 +108.27 62.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mohammed Usman 259, Junior Tafa 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#108] William Gomis (11-2-0, +158) vs. [#235] Francis Marshall (7-0-0, -193)

Last 3 Fights: William Gomis (3-0-0)
2022-09-03: W vs. [#184FW] Jarno Errens (13-4-1) via MD (29-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-06-25: W vs. [#941LW] Jose Marcos Lima Santiago (11-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:29 of round 3
2022-03-26: W vs. [#1327LW] Arip Yakubov (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Francis Marshall (3-0-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#333FW] Marcelo Rojo (17-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 2
2022-08-02: W vs. [#426FW] Connor Matthews (7-1-0) via UD ()
2022-02-18: W vs. [#1922FW] Mike Lawrence (7-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Francis Marshall -193 62.95%
Elo K170 William Gomis 1609.09 +165.07 68.01%
Elo Modified William Gomis 1581.75 +76.89 58.34%
Glicko-1 William Gomis 1589.91 +106.67 64.88%
WHR William Gomis 1561.28 +116.82 63.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: William Gomis 231, Francis Marshall 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#18] Karine Silva (15-4-0, -164) vs. [#27] Priscila Cachoeira (12-4-0, +135)

Last 3 Fights: Karine Silva (3-0-0)
2022-06-04: W vs. [#59FLY] Poliana Botelho (9-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:55 of round 1
2021-10-26: W vs. [*] Qihui Yan (22-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:44 of round 2
2020-10-31: W vs. [*] Sidy Rocha (12-8-2) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 2:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Priscila Cachoeira (2-1-0)
2022-08-13: W vs. [#30FLY] Ariane Lipski (15-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:05 of round 1
2022-02-26: W vs. [#96FLY] Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-11: L vs. [#11SW] Gillian Robertson (12-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:59 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karine Silva -164 59.34%
Elo K170 Karine Silva 1558.11 +117.59 63.12%
Elo Modified Karine Silva 1585.88 +111.66 61.98%
Glicko-1 Karine Silva 1663.74 +197.48 75.71%
WHR Karine Silva 1554.75 +137.65 65.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karine Silva 322, Priscila Cachoeira 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#150] Batgerel Danaa (11-4-0, -178) vs. [#252] Brady Hiestand (6-2-0, +147)

Last 3 Fights: Batgerel Danaa (1-2-0)
2022-06-11: L vs. [#85BW] Kyung Ho Kang (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-03-26: L vs. [#17BW] Chris Gutierrez (19-5-2) via TKO (Spinning Backfist and Elbows) in 2:34 of round 2
2021-10-16: W vs. [#233BW] Brandon Davis (14-10-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:01 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brady Hiestand (2-1-0)
2022-11-19: W vs. [#557BW] Fernando Garcia (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-08-28: L vs. [#303BW] Ricky Turcios (12-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-02-08: W vs. [NA] Shane Sargent (1-15-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:31 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Batgerel Danaa -178 61.26%
Elo K170 Batgerel Danaa 1465.91 +60.15 56.83%
Elo Modified Batgerel Danaa 1468.81 +36.30 53.96%
Glicko-1 Batgerel Danaa 1480.67 +61.39 58.74%
WHR Batgerel Danaa 1492.44 +146.52 66.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Batgerel Danaa 315, Brady Hiestand 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Curtis Blaydes
Highest Stored DD Rating: Curtis Blaydes
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Curtis Blaydes vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Curtis Blaydes vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2023-4-16

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