Fight Matrix Program – UFC 281 (11-12-2022)

Nov 7, 2022
Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#9DD/#3P4P] Israel Adesanya (23-1-0, -195) vs. [#7] Alex Pereira (6-1-0, +155)
Israel Adesanya is the All-Time #2 ranked Middleweight and #15 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Israel Adesanya (3-0-0)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#3MW] Jared Cannonier (15-6-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 49-46)
2022-02-12: W vs. [#2MW] Robert Whittaker (24-6-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2021-06-12: W vs. [#6MW] Marvin Vettori (18-6-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (3-0-0)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#11MW] Sean Strickland (25-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 1
2022-03-12: W vs. [#45MW] Bruno Silva (22-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-11-06: W vs. [#346WW] Andreas Michailidis (13-6-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:18 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Israel Adesanya -195 62.76%
Elo K170 Israel Adesanya 2393.62 +637.48 94.85%
Elo Modified Israel Adesanya 2354.18 +526.15 90.92%
Glicko-1 Israel Adesanya 2440.24 +579.76 96.57%
WHR Israel Adesanya 2167.98 +286.21 78.71%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Israel Adesanya 133, Alex Pereira 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Carla Esparza (19-6-0, +289) vs. [#3/#6P4P] Weili Zhang (22-3-0, -394)
Carla Esparza is the All-Time #21 ranked Women’s fighter.
Weili Zhang is the All-Time #15 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carla Esparza (3-0-0)
2022-05-07: W vs. [#2SW/#4DD/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (11-5-0) via SD ()
2021-05-22: W vs. [#6SW] Xiaonan Yan (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 2
2020-07-25: W vs. [#5SW] Marina Rodriguez (16-2-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Weili Zhang (1-2-0)
2022-06-11: W vs. [*] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist) in 2:28 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#2SW/#4DD/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (11-5-0) via SD (47-48, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-04-24: L vs. [#2SW/#4DD/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (11-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:18 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Weili Zhang -394 75.62%
Elo K170 Carla Esparza 1976.75 +145.67 66.05%
Elo Modified Weili Zhang 1829.16 +4.49 50.49%
Glicko-1 Weili Zhang 1862.70 +98.81 63.85%
WHR Weili Zhang 1762.72 +51.63 55.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carla Esparza 189, Weili Zhang 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Weili Zhang leads 3-2
.

Lightweight (155)
[#3] Dustin Poirier (28-7-0, -219) vs. [#6] Michael Chandler (23-7-0, +170)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight and #37 ranked Absolute fighter.
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #17 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2021-12-11: L vs. [#2LW/#4DD] Charles Oliveira (33-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:02 of round 3
2021-07-10: W vs. [*] Conor McGregor (22-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2021-01-23: W vs. [*] Conor McGregor (22-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (1-2-0)
2022-05-07: W vs. [#50WW] Tony Ferguson (25-8-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 0:17 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (23-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-05-15: L vs. [#2LW/#4DD] Charles Oliveira (33-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:19 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dustin Poirier -219 64.95%
Elo K170 Dustin Poirier 2294.20 +177.35 69.22%
Elo Modified Dustin Poirier 2225.30 +163.68 67.18%
Glicko-1 Dustin Poirier 2306.79 +148.51 70.16%
WHR Dustin Poirier 2055.59 +102.16 61.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 336, Michael Chandler 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dustin Poirier leads 3-2
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#11] Frankie Edgar (24-10-1, +177) vs. [*] Chris Gutierrez (18-4-2, -224)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #19 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (1-2-0)
2021-11-06: L vs. [#5BW] Marlon Vera (21-7-1) via KO (Front Kick) in 3:50 of round 3
2021-02-06: L vs. [#7BW] Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:28 of round 1
2020-08-22: W vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0) via SD (48-47, 46-49, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Gutierrez (3-0-0)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#148BW] Batgerel Danaa (11-4-0) via TKO (Spinning Backfist and Elbows) in 2:34 of round 2
2021-10-09: W vs. [#216FW] Felipe Dias Colares (10-4-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2021-02-13: W vs. [#183FW] Andre Ewell (18-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chris Gutierrez -224 65.69%
Elo K170 Chris Gutierrez 1834.33 +26.48 53.02%
Elo Modified Frankie Edgar 1765.76 +29.05 53.17%
Glicko-1 Frankie Edgar 1787.86 +31.08 54.46%
WHR Frankie Edgar 1675.32 +19.45 52.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 371, Chris Gutierrez 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#14] Dan Hooker (21-12-0, -159) vs. [#36] Claudio Puelles (12-3-0, +134)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (1-2-0)
2022-03-19: L vs. [#4FW] Arnold Allen (19-1-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:33 of round 1
2021-10-30: L vs. [#1LW/#2DD/#6P4P] Islam Makhachev (23-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:25 of round 1
2021-09-25: W vs. [#53LW] Nasrat Haqparast (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Claudio Puelles (3-0-0)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#61LW] Clay Guida (37-22-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 3:01 of round 1
2021-12-04: W vs. [#141LW] Chris Gruetzemacher (15-5-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 3:25 of round 3
2021-06-05: W vs. [#201LW] Jordan Leavitt (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dan Hooker -159 58.95%
Elo K170 Dan Hooker 1867.48 +43.15 54.91%
Elo Modified Claudio Puelles 1836.38 +1.77 50.19%
Glicko-1 Claudio Puelles 1875.35 +39.30 55.63%
WHR Claudio Puelles 1797.15 +19.90 52.27%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hooker 238, Claudio Puelles 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#20] Renato Carneiro (16-5-1, -126) vs. [#57] Brad Riddell (10-3-0, +100)

Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (2-1-0)
2022-03-05: L vs. [#33WW] Rafael dos Anjos (31-14-0) via UD (49-44, 50-44, 49-45)
2022-02-12: W vs. [#43LW] Alexander Hernandez (13-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:23 of round 2
2021-06-26: W vs. [#101LW] Jai Herbert (12-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brad Riddell (1-2-0)
2022-07-02: L vs. [#32LW] Jalin Turner (13-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:45 of round 1
2021-12-04: L vs. [#7LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-1-0) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:20 of round 3
2021-06-12: W vs. [#24LW] Drew Dober (25-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Renato Carneiro -126 52.71%
Elo K170 Renato Carneiro 1801.11 +188.54 70.29%
Elo Modified Renato Carneiro 1781.42 +169.08 67.70%
Glicko-1 Renato Carneiro 1821.18 +212.04 77.21%
WHR Renato Carneiro 1748.72 +160.47 67.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 252, Brad Riddell 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#17] Ryan Spann (20-7-0, +176) vs. [*] Dominick Reyes (12-3-0, -226)
Dominick Reyes is the All-Time #43 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (2-1-0)
2022-05-14: W vs. [#34LHW] Ion Cutelaba (16-8-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:22 of round 1
2021-09-18: L vs. [#13LHW] Anthony Smith (36-17-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:47 of round 1
2021-03-13: W vs. [#74LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:11 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (0-3-0)
2021-05-01: L vs. [#1LHW/#10P4P] Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 4:29 of round 2
2020-09-26: L vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:36 of round 2
2020-02-08: L vs. [*] Jon Jones (26-1-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dominick Reyes -226 65.67%
Elo K170 Dominick Reyes 1858.81 +34.60 53.94%
Elo Modified Dominick Reyes 1824.96 +16.15 51.77%
Glicko-1 Dominick Reyes 1874.84 +7.81 51.12%
WHR Dominick Reyes 1801.40 +91.68 60.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 182, Dominick Reyes 560
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#10] Erin Blanchfield (9-1-0, -431) vs. [#27] Molly McCann (13-4-0, +324)

Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (3-0-0)
2022-06-04: W vs. [#32FLY] J.J. Aldrich (11-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:38 of round 2
2021-12-11: W vs. [#21FLY] Miranda Maverick (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-09-18: W vs. [#107FLY] Sarah Alpar (9-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-25)

Last 3 Fights: Molly McCann (3-0-0)
2022-07-23: W vs. [#139FLY] Hannah Goldy (6-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) in 3:52 of round 1
2022-03-19: W vs. [#65FLY] Luana Carolina (8-3-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 1:52 of round 3
2021-09-04: W vs. [#55BW] Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Erin Blanchfield -431 77.48%
Elo K170 Erin Blanchfield 1640.54 +113.59 62.69%
Elo Modified Erin Blanchfield 1677.55 +134.39 64.30%
Glicko-1 Erin Blanchfield 1635.73 +75.58 60.71%
WHR Erin Blanchfield 1619.31 +163.47 67.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Erin Blanchfield 161, Molly McCann 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#34] Wellington Turman (18-5-0, +167) vs. [#94] Andre Petroski (8-1-0, -211)

Last 3 Fights: Wellington Turman (2-1-0)
2022-02-26: W vs. [#74LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:29 of round 2
2021-08-28: W vs. [#70MW] Sam Alvey (33-18-1) via SD (28-27, 27-28, 28-27)
2021-06-19: L vs. [#45MW] Bruno Silva (22-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Andre Petroski (3-0-0)
2022-05-14: W vs. [#139MW] Nick Maximov (8-2-0) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:16 of round 1
2021-10-30: W vs. [#1064MW] Yaozong Hu (3-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:46 of round 3
2021-08-28: W vs. [#1007WW] Micheal Gillmore (6-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:12 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Andre Petroski -211 64.43%
Elo K170 Wellington Turman 1652.11 +135.25 64.97%
Elo Modified Wellington Turman 1652.74 +120.30 62.87%
Glicko-1 Wellington Turman 1649.73 +96.39 63.53%
WHR Wellington Turman 1536.23 +78.17 58.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Wellington Turman 259, Andre Petroski 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#37] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (13-7-0, -117) vs. [#56] Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-4-0, -108)

Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (1-2-0)
2022-06-04: W vs. [*] Felice Herrig (14-10-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 2
2021-08-07: L vs. [#35SW] Jessica Penne (14-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:32 of round 1
2020-02-22: L vs. [#6SW] Xiaonan Yan (16-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Silvana Gomez Juarez (1-2-0)
2022-06-11: W vs. [#120SW] Na Liang (19-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2022-01-22: L vs. [#23SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (8-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:25 of round 1
2021-10-09: L vs. [#16SW] Lupita Godinez (8-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:14 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karolina Kowalkiewicz -117 50.94%
Elo K170 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1382.67 +93.74 60.55%
Elo Modified Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1371.14 +26.79 52.93%
Glicko-1 Silvana Gomez Juarez 1342.85 +17.02 52.45%
WHR Silvana Gomez Juarez 1305.24 +34.89 53.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 161, Silvana Gomez Juarez 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#76] Seung Woo Choi (10-5-0, -165) vs. [#156] Michael Trizano (9-3-0, +133)

Last 3 Fights: Seung Woo Choi (1-2-0)
2022-06-11: L vs. [#73FW] Joshua Culibao (11-1-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#39FW] Alex Caceres (19-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:31 of round 2
2021-06-19: W vs. [#29FW] Julian Erosa (28-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Trizano (1-2-0)
2022-06-04: L vs. [#93FW] Lucas Almeida (14-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 3
2022-02-05: L vs. [#60FW] Hakeem Dawodu (13-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-05-08: W vs. [#102LW] Ludovit Klein (19-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Seung Woo Choi -165 59.19%
Elo K170 Michael Trizano 1539.42 +65.32 57.41%
Elo Modified Seung Woo Choi 1544.41 +16.25 51.78%
Glicko-1 Seung Woo Choi 1555.57 +51.76 57.40%
WHR Seung Woo Choi 1546.81 +120.83 63.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Seung Woo Choi 154, Michael Trizano 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[*] Ottman Azaitar (13-0-0, -115) vs. [#175] Matt Frevola (9-3-1, -111)

Last 3 Fights: Ottman Azaitar (3-0-0)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#247LW] Khama Worthy (18-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:33 of round 1
2019-09-07: W vs. [*] Teemu Packalen (8-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:33 of round 1
2018-08-18: W vs. [*] Danijel Kokora (21-16-0) via TKO in 0:32 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matt Frevola (1-2-0)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#427LW] Genaro Valdez (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
2021-06-12: L vs. [#106LW] Terrance McKinney (13-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:07 of round 1
2021-01-23: L vs. [#12LW] Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ottman Azaitar -115 50.41%
Elo K170 Ottman Azaitar 1771.41 +212.45 72.52%
Elo Modified Ottman Azaitar 1776.59 +207.12 71.23%
Glicko-1 Ottman Azaitar 1835.19 +272.22 82.73%
WHR Ottman Azaitar 1712.14 +196.21 71.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ottman Azaitar 791, Matt Frevola 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#55] Montel Jackson (11-2-0, -183) vs. [#67] Julio Arce (18-5-0, +169)

Last 3 Fights: Montel Jackson (2-1-0)
2021-09-18: W vs. [#233FLY] J.P. Buys (9-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-03-20: W vs. [#737BW] Jesse Strader (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1
2020-07-18: L vs. [#41BW] Brett Johns (19-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Julio Arce (2-1-0)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#97BW] Daniel Gustavo Santos (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-11-13: L vs. [#14BW] Yadong Song (19-8-1) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:35 of round 2
2021-07-24: W vs. [#183FW] Andre Ewell (18-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:45 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Montel Jackson -183 63.49%
Elo K170 Julio Arce 1679.36 +11.82 51.35%
Elo Modified Julio Arce 1704.53 +24.28 52.65%
Glicko-1 Julio Arce 1744.02 +21.07 53.03%
WHR Julio Arce 1697.28 +81.34 59.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Montel Jackson 420, Julio Arce 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Montel Jackson leads 1-0
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#59] Nicolae Negumereanu (13-1-0) vs. [#76] Carlos Ulberg (7-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Nicolae Negumereanu (3-0-0)
2022-07-30: W vs. [#131LHW] Ihor Potieria (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 3:33 of round 2
2022-03-05: W vs. [#53LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (10-3-0) via SD (29-27, 27-29, 29-27)
2021-10-23: W vs. [#187LHW] Isaac Villanueva (18-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Ulberg (2-1-0)
2022-06-25: W vs. [#92LHW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:15 of round 1
2022-02-12: W vs. [#193LHW] Fabio Cherant (7-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-03-06: L vs. [#53LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (10-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Nicolae Negumereanu 1658.89 +165.84 68.08%
Elo Modified Nicolae Negumereanu 1615.57 +30.17 53.30%
Glicko-1 Nicolae Negumereanu 1635.51 +115.35 66.02%
WHR Carlos Ulberg 1586.08 +9.46 51.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nicolae Negumereanu 105, Carlos Ulberg 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Nicolae Negumereanu leads 1-0
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Israel Adesanya
Highest Stored DD Rating: Israel Adesanya
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2022-11-8

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