Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan (10-01-2022)

Sep 26, 2022
Jason

Women Strawweight (115)
[#7] Mackenzie Dern (12-2-0, -226) vs. [#11] Xiaonan Yan (15-3-0, +181)

Last 3 Fights: Mackenzie Dern (2-1-0)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#8SW] Tecia Torres (13-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-10-09: L vs. [#5SW/#10P4P] Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2021-04-10: W vs. [*] Nina Nunes (11-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (1-2-0)
2022-03-05: L vs. [#5SW/#10P4P] Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-05-22: L vs. [#1SW/#3DD/#3P4P] Carla Esparza (19-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 2
2020-11-07: W vs. [*] Claudia Gadelha (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mackenzie Dern -226 66.07%
Elo K170 Mackenzie Dern 1699.79 +103.42 61.60%
Elo Modified Mackenzie Dern 1659.07 +35.74 53.90%
Glicko-1 Mackenzie Dern 1651.15 +53.76 57.68%
WHR Xiaonan Yan 1580.46 +11.74 51.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mackenzie Dern 175, Xiaonan Yan 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#31] Randy Brown (15-4-0, -273) vs. [#40] Francisco Trinaldo (28-8-0, +223)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (3-0-0)
2022-05-07: W vs. [#51WW] Kalinn Williams (13-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2021-10-09: W vs. [#155MW] Jared Gooden (20-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#95WW] Alex Oliveira (23-13-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:50 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Francisco Trinaldo (2-1-0)
2022-05-07: W vs. [#59WW] Danny Roberts (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-26)
2021-10-23: W vs. [#176MW] Dwight Grant (11-6-0) via SD (29-27, 27-29, 29-27)
2021-06-05: L vs. [#39WW] Muslim Salikhov (18-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Randy Brown -273 70.27%
Elo K170 Francisco Trinaldo 1939.22 +61.54 56.98%
Elo Modified Francisco Trinaldo 1859.06 +33.03 53.61%
Glicko-1 Francisco Trinaldo 1879.57 +28.47 54.09%
WHR Randy Brown 1739.64 +20.90 52.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 147, Francisco Trinaldo 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#61] John Castaneda (19-5-0, -216) vs. [#287] Daniel Gustavo Santos (9-2-0, +173)

Last 3 Fights: John Castaneda (2-1-0)
2022-02-05: W vs. [#141BW] Miles Johns (12-2-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:38 of round 3
2021-02-20: W vs. [*] Eddie Wineland (24-16-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1
2020-07-25: L vs. [#35FW] Nathaniel Wood (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Gustavo Santos (2-1-0)
2022-04-09: L vs. [#67BW] Julio Arce (18-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#502BW] Zhunus Nizambek (9-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:00 of round 1
2019-06-28: W vs. [*] Henrique Fantini (7-2-1) via TKO (Spinning Back Kick) in 02:21 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds John Castaneda -216 65.10%
Elo K170 John Castaneda 1665.67 +186.31 70.08%
Elo Modified John Castaneda 1689.69 +180.40 68.78%
Glicko-1 John Castaneda 1735.32 +210.85 77.10%
WHR John Castaneda 1632.28 +163.30 67.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: John Castaneda 238, Daniel Gustavo Santos 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#48] Raoni Barcelos (16-3-0, -193) vs. [#92] Trevin Jones (14-8-0, +160)

Last 3 Fights: Raoni Barcelos (1-2-0)
2022-01-22: L vs. [#25BW] Victor Henry (22-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#42BW] Timur Valiev (18-4-0) via MD (28-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-11-07: W vs. [#371BW] Khalid Taha (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Trevin Jones (1-2-0)
2022-03-12: L vs. [#54BW] Javid Basharat (13-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-21: L vs. [#35BW] Saidyokub Kakhramonov (10-2-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:39 of round 3
2021-03-06: W vs. [#47BW] Mario Bautista (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Raoni Barcelos -193 63.13%
Elo K170 Raoni Barcelos 1726.47 +221.30 73.32%
Elo Modified Raoni Barcelos 1762.62 +215.01 71.93%
Glicko-1 Raoni Barcelos 1821.54 +223.08 78.31%
WHR Raoni Barcelos 1731.88 +130.72 64.50%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raoni Barcelos 252, Trevin Jones 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Trevin Jones leads 1-0
.

Featherweight (145)
[#24] Sodiq Yusuff (12-2-0) vs. [#203] Don Shainis (14-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Sodiq Yusuff (2-1-0)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#41FW] Alex Caceres (19-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-04-10: L vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (18-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#56FW] Andre Fili (22-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Don Shainis (3-0-0)
2022-06-04: W vs. [#1061FW] Brice Picaud (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:20 of round 1
2022-05-06: W vs. [#710LW] Cody Pfister (16-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:55 of round 1
2022-04-02: W vs. [NA] Jay Ellis (16-106-0) via KO in 0:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Sodiq Yusuff 1865.81 +417.00 87.05%
Elo Modified Sodiq Yusuff 1861.26 +405.07 85.48%
Glicko-1 Sodiq Yusuff 1874.67 +364.37 89.06%
WHR Sodiq Yusuff 1750.52 +343.04 82.74%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sodiq Yusuff 203, Don Shainis 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[*] Mike Davis (9-2-0) vs. [#258] Viacheslav Borshchev (6-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Davis (2-1-0)
2021-01-20: W vs. [#160LW] Mason Jones (11-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-12: W vs. [*] Thomas Gifford (17-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:45 of round 3
2019-04-27: L vs. [#5WW] Gilbert Burns (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Viacheslav Borshchev (2-1-0)
2022-03-26: L vs. [#80LW] Marc Diakiese (16-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-01-15: W vs. [#324LW] Dakota Bush (9-4-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 3:47 of round 1
2021-10-12: W vs. [#271LW] Chris Duncan (9-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:28 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Mike Davis 1579.98 +208.85 72.20%
Elo Modified Mike Davis 1594.27 +160.36 66.86%
Glicko-1 Mike Davis 1624.82 +152.82 70.68%
WHR Mike Davis 1530.69 +75.56 58.54%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Davis 619, Viacheslav Borshchev 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#262] Guido Cannetti (9-6-0, +240) vs. [#497] Randy Costa (6-3-0, -306)

Last 3 Fights: Guido Cannetti (1-2-0)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#519BW] Kris Moutinho (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 1
2021-08-28: L vs. [#259BW] Leomana Martinez (9-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-03-07: L vs. [#146BW] Batgerel Danaa (11-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Randy Costa (1-2-0)
2021-12-11: L vs. [#240BW] Tony Kelley (8-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:15 of round 2
2021-07-24: L vs. [#59BW] Adrian Yanez (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 2
2020-09-19: W vs. [#235BW] Journey Newson (11-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:41 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Randy Costa -306 71.93%
Elo K170 Guido Cannetti 1343.78 +70.77 58.01%
Elo Modified Guido Cannetti 1422.95 +95.07 60.26%
Glicko-1 Guido Cannetti 1422.55 +126.31 67.42%
WHR Guido Cannetti 1377.66 +117.59 63.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Guido Cannetti 203, Randy Costa 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#20] Krzysztof Jotko (24-5-0, -110) vs. [#29] Brendan Allen (19-5-0, -111)

Last 3 Fights: Krzysztof Jotko (2-1-0)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#22MW] Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-10-02: W vs. [#70LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-05-01: L vs. [#13MW] Sean Strickland (25-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (2-1-0)
2022-06-11: W vs. [#120MW] Jacob Malkoun (6-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-02-05: W vs. [#70MW] Sam Alvey (33-18-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:10 of round 2
2021-12-04: L vs. [#24MW] Chris Curtis (29-9-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 1:58 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brendan Allen -111 50.10%
Elo K170 Krzysztof Jotko 1903.88 +84.37 59.52%
Elo Modified Brendan Allen 1869.06 +5.44 50.59%
Glicko-1 Brendan Allen 1888.94 +22.99 53.30%
WHR Krzysztof Jotko 1760.23 +5.86 50.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Krzysztof Jotko 154, Brendan Allen 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Krzysztof Jotko leads 1-0
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[#21BW] Julija Stoliarenko (10-6-2, -116) vs. [#16] Chelsea Chandler (4-1-0, -107)

Last 3 Fights: Julija Stoliarenko (1-2-0)
2022-07-02: W vs. [#34BW] Jessica-Rose Clark (11-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:42 of round 1
2022-02-05: L vs. [#12BW] Alexis Davis (21-11-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2021-06-26: L vs. [*] Julia Avila (9-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chelsea Chandler (3-0-0)
2022-05-11: W vs. [#42FW] Courtney King (4-3-0) via UD ()
2020-07-02: W vs. [NA] Olivia Parker (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:05 of round 1
2019-06-07: W vs. [NA] Brittney Victoria Grizzel (3-1-0) via TKO in 3:58 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julija Stoliarenko -116 50.95%
Elo K170 Chelsea Chandler 1348.45 +9.47 51.08%
Elo Modified Chelsea Chandler 1475.61 +115.46 62.38%
Glicko-1 Chelsea Chandler 1369.08 +36.52 55.24%
WHR Julija Stoliarenko 1321.11 +39.63 54.51%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julija Stoliarenko 91, Chelsea Chandler 143
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#139] Jesse Ronson (22-11-0, +125) vs. [*] Joaquim Silva (11-3-0, -154)

Last 3 Fights: Jesse Ronson (2-1-0)
2022-04-16: L vs. [#75LW] Rafa Garcia (14-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:50 of round 2
2020-07-25: W vs. [#52WW] Nicolas Dalby (20-5-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:48 of round 1
2020-02-29: W vs. [#616FW] Troy Lamson (13-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Joaquim Silva (1-2-0)
2021-06-19: L vs. [#58LW] Ricky Glenn (22-6-2) via KO (Punches) in 0:37 of round 1
2019-08-03: L vs. [#53LW] Nasrat Haqparast (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2
2018-12-15: W vs. [#56LW] Jared Gordon (19-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joaquim Silva -154 57.70%
Elo K170 Jesse Ronson 1590.16 +76.22 58.62%
Elo Modified Jesse Ronson 1596.63 +100.46 60.82%
Glicko-1 Jesse Ronson 1623.33 +143.52 69.56%
WHR Jesse Ronson 1529.46 +45.81 55.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jesse Ronson 168, Joaquim Silva 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#24] Maxim Grishin (32-9-2, -167) vs. [#34] Philipe Lins (15-5-0, +135)

Last 3 Fights: Maxim Grishin (2-1-0)
2022-02-12: W vs. [#55HW+] William Knight (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-02-27: L vs. [#18LHW] Dustin Jacoby (18-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-10-17: W vs. [#121LHW] Gadzhimurad Antigulov (21-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Philipe Lins (1-2-0)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#62LHW] Marcin Prachnio (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#35HW+] Tanner Boser (20-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 1
2020-05-13: L vs. [#34HW+] Andrei Arlovski (34-20-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Maxim Grishin -167 59.51%
Elo K170 Maxim Grishin 1700.61 +106.87 61.97%
Elo Modified Maxim Grishin 1732.88 +86.64 59.37%
Glicko-1 Maxim Grishin 1750.41 +109.68 65.28%
WHR Maxim Grishin 1704.79 +120.75 63.45%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maxim Grishin 231, Philipe Lins 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#22] Alexey Oleynik (60-16-1, +145) vs. [*] Ilir Latifi (15-8-0, -175)

Last 3 Fights: Alexey Oleynik (1-2-0)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#92HW+] Jared Vanderaa (12-9-0) via Submission (Scarf Hold) in 3:39 of round 1
2021-06-19: L vs. [#20HW+] Sergey Spivak (15-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-02-20: L vs. [#14HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (1-2-0)
2021-06-05: W vs. [#35HW+] Tanner Boser (20-9-1) via SD (27-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-02-08: L vs. [#7HW+] Derrick Lewis (26-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-10: L vs. [#12LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (18-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ilir Latifi -175 60.92%
Elo K170 Ilir Latifi 1725.25 +112.28 62.55%
Elo Modified Ilir Latifi 1705.35 +62.85 56.83%
Glicko-1 Ilir Latifi 1727.66 +46.95 56.72%
WHR Ilir Latifi 1671.82 +66.61 57.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexey Oleynik 175, Ilir Latifi 483
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#36] Jessica Penne (14-6-0, +170) vs. [#44] Tabatha Ricci (7-1-0, -211)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Penne (2-1-0)
2022-07-16: L vs. [#13SW] Emily Ducote (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#39SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (13-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:32 of round 1
2021-04-17: W vs. [#16SW] Lupita Godinez (8-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2022-05-21: W vs. [#57SW] Polyana Viana (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-23: W vs. [#78SW] Maria Oliveira (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-06-05: L vs. [#6FLY] Manon Fiorot (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tabatha Ricci -211 64.68%
Elo K170 Tabatha Ricci 1409.50 +22.03 52.51%
Elo Modified Tabatha Ricci 1445.08 +65.84 57.16%
Glicko-1 Tabatha Ricci 1421.16 +97.34 63.65%
WHR Tabatha Ricci 1410.54 +62.68 57.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Penne 77, Tabatha Ricci 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Krzysztof Jotko
Highest Stored DD Rating: Mackenzie Dern
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Randy Brown vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Mackenzie Dern vs. Xiaonan Yan
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2022-9-25