Fight Matrix Program – UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 (08-20-2022)

15 Aug , 2022,
Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#3DD/#1P4P] Kamaru Usman (20-1-0, -349) vs. [#11] Leon Edwards (19-3-0, +270)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight and #13 ranked Absolute fighter.
Leon Edwards is the All-Time #40 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2021-11-06: W vs. [#2WW] Colby Covington (17-3-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#6WW] Jorge Masvidal (35-16-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:02 of round 2
2021-02-13: W vs. [#5WW] Gilbert Burns (20-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Leon Edwards (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2021-06-12: W vs. [#51WW] Nate Diaz (20-13-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2021-03-13: NC vs. [#4WW] Belal Muhammad (21-3-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#8LW] Rafael dos Anjos (31-14-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kamaru Usman -349 74.19%
Elo K170 Kamaru Usman 2539.23 +306.82 80.24%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2486.62 +315.03 79.89%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2585.92 +365.55 89.13%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2278.39 +267.08 77.21%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 287, Leon Edwards 434
Previous Match-up Record: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#14] Paulo Costa (13-2-0, -283) vs. [*] Luke Rockhold (16-5-0, +226)
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #30 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Luke Rockhold is the All-Time #6 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (1-2-0)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#5MW] Marvin Vettori (18-5-1) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)
2020-09-26: L vs. [#1MW/#7DD/#4P4P] Israel Adesanya (23-1-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:59 of round 2
2019-08-17: W vs. [#9LHW] Yoel Romero (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Luke Rockhold (1-2-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
2018-02-10: L vs. [#9LHW] Yoel Romero (14-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:48 of round 3
2017-09-16: W vs. [*] David Branch (22-7-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 4:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Paulo Costa -283 70.66%
Elo K170 Luke Rockhold 1962.34 +62.03 57.04%
Elo Modified Luke Rockhold 1958.04 +41.27 54.50%
Glicko-1 Paulo Costa 2006.96 +10.25 51.47%
WHR Paulo Costa 1858.17 +47.56 55.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paulo Costa 301, Luke Rockhold 1141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Paulo Costa leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#2/#10DD] Jose Aldo (31-7-0, -103) vs. [#7] Merab Dvalishvili (14-4-0, -120)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #30 ranked Bantamweight and #3 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#8BW] Rob Font (19-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-12-19: W vs. [#5BW] Marlon Vera (21-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Merab Dvalishvili (3-0-0)
2021-09-25: W vs. [*] Marlon Moraes (23-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 2
2021-05-01: W vs. [#35BW] Cody Stamann (20-5-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-08-15: W vs. [#39BW] John Dodson (22-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Merab Dvalishvili -120 51.80%
Elo K170 Jose Aldo 2139.62 +128.31 64.25%
Elo Modified Jose Aldo 2139.73 +143.08 65.16%
Glicko-1 Jose Aldo 2196.10 +165.88 72.21%
WHR Jose Aldo 1995.31 +106.15 61.89%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 259, Merab Dvalishvili 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Merab Dvalishvili leads 1-0
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Marcin Tybura (22-7-0, +268) vs. [#34] Alexander Romanov (16-0-0, -344)

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (2-1-0)
2021-10-30: L vs. [#5HW+] Alexander Volkov (35-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-06-05: W vs. [#45HW+] Walt Harris (13-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 1
2020-12-19: W vs. [#54HW+] Greg Hardy (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Romanov (3-0-0)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#69HW+] Chase Sherman (16-10-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 2:11 of round 1
2021-10-09: W vs. [#87HW+] Jared Vanderaa (12-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 2
2021-04-17: W vs. [*] Juan Espino (10-2-0) via TSD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Romanov -344 74.03%
Elo K170 Marcin Tybura 1836.94 +28.18 53.21%
Elo Modified Marcin Tybura 1864.73 +62.54 56.80%
Glicko-1 Marcin Tybura 1924.45 +60.71 58.65%
WHR Alexander Romanov 1828.61 +76.63 58.66%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Tybura 294, Alexander Romanov 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#63] Tyson Pedro (8-3-0, -782) vs. [#259HW+] Harry Hunsucker (7-5-0, +529)

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Pedro (1-2-0)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#188LHW] Isaac Villanueva (18-14-0) via KO (Leg Kick and Punches) in 4:55 of round 1
2018-12-01: L vs. [#43LHW] Mauricio Rua (27-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 3
2018-06-23: L vs. [#28LHW] Ovince St. Preux (26-16-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 2:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Harry Hunsucker (1-2-0)
2021-12-18: L vs. [#135HW+] Justin Tafa (5-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:54 of round 1
2021-03-20: L vs. [#4HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2021-02-27: W vs. [*] Cory Moon (4-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tyson Pedro -782 84.79%
Elo K170 Tyson Pedro 1534.46 +403.84 86.36%
Elo Modified Tyson Pedro 1559.99 +380.08 84.08%
Glicko-1 Tyson Pedro 1584.13 +408.92 91.32%
WHR Tyson Pedro 1556.51 +388.32 85.50%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tyson Pedro 119, Harry Hunsucker 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#77] Leonardo Santos (18-5-1, +255) vs. [#84] Jared Gordon (18-5-0, -324)

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (1-2-0)
2021-12-04: L vs. [#60LW] Clay Guida (37-22-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:21 of round 2
2021-03-20: L vs. [#20LW] Grant Dawson (18-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 3
2020-07-11: W vs. [#60FW] Roman Bogatov (12-1-0) via UD (29-26, 29-26, 29-26)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (2-1-0)
2022-04-30: L vs. [#20LW] Grant Dawson (18-1-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:11 of round 3
2021-10-02: W vs. [#85LW] Joe Solecki (12-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-02-20: W vs. [#256FW] Danny Chavez (11-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jared Gordon -324 73.06%
Elo K170 Leonardo Santos 1750.03 +4.68 50.54%
Elo Modified Leonardo Santos 1752.16 +39.16 54.27%
Glicko-1 Leonardo Santos 1751.07 +80.54 61.39%
WHR Leonardo Santos 1684.88 +60.01 56.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leonardo Santos 259, Jared Gordon 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#25] Lucie Pudilova (13-7-0, -157) vs. [#70] Yanan Wu (12-5-0, +131)

Last 3 Fights: Lucie Pudilova (2-1-0)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#101BW] Caroline Yariwake da Cruz (8-5-0) via DEC ()
2021-11-06: W vs. [#44BW] Marta Waliczek (5-5-0) via SD ()
2021-07-24: L vs. [#17BW] Talita Bernardo (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Yanan Wu (0-3-0)
2022-04-16: L vs. [#12BW] Mayra Bueno Silva (9-2-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-01-16: L vs. [#27BW] Joselyne Edwards (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-08-31: L vs. [*] Mizuki Inoue (15-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lucie Pudilova -157 58.52%
Elo K170 Lucie Pudilova 1380.92 +243.65 75.27%
Elo Modified Lucie Pudilova 1370.04 +152.76 66.12%
Glicko-1 Lucie Pudilova 1346.06 +89.63 62.62%
WHR Lucie Pudilova 1294.17 +90.89 60.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lucie Pudilova 133, Yanan Wu 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#127] Sean Woodson (9-1-0, -303) vs. [#144] Luis Saldana (16-7-0, +243)

Last 3 Fights: Sean Woodson (2-1-0)
2021-11-13: W vs. [#880FW] Collin Anglin (8-5-0) via TKO (Punches to the Body) in 4:30 of round 1
2021-06-05: W vs. [#129BW] Youssef Zalal (10-5-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#42FW] Julian Erosa (27-9-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:44 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Luis Saldana (2-1-0)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#262FW] Bruno Souza (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-08-21: L vs. [#137FW] Austin Lingo (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-04-10: W vs. [#474LW] Jordan Griffin (18-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean Woodson -303 72.06%
Elo K170 Sean Woodson 1525.42 +33.25 53.79%
Elo Modified Sean Woodson 1533.35 +43.13 54.70%
Glicko-1 Luis Saldana 1516.01 +4.76 50.68%
WHR Sean Woodson 1482.82 +88.87 60.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Woodson 280, Luis Saldana 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#25] Miranda Maverick (10-4-0, -361) vs. [#70] Shanna Young (8-4-0, +283)

Last 3 Fights: Miranda Maverick (1-2-0)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#77FLY] Sabina Mazo (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:15 of round 2
2021-12-11: L vs. [#10FLY] Erin Blanchfield (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-07-24: L vs. [#11FLY] Maycee Barber (11-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Shanna Young (1-2-0)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#115FLY] Gina Mazany (7-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 2
2021-10-02: L vs. [#23BW] Stephanie Egger (7-3-0) via TKO (Elbow) in 2:22 of round 2
2020-02-15: L vs. [#8BW] Macy Chiasson (8-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Miranda Maverick -361 74.99%
Elo K170 Miranda Maverick 1437.10 +198.77 71.26%
Elo Modified Miranda Maverick 1505.32 +225.56 72.85%
Glicko-1 Miranda Maverick 1501.05 +250.42 80.87%
WHR Miranda Maverick 1492.88 +299.94 79.74%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miranda Maverick 161, Shanna Young 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#185] Ange Loosa (8-3-0, +133) vs. [#219] A.J. Fletcher (9-1-0, -158)

Last 3 Fights: Ange Loosa (1-2-0)
2022-04-16: L vs. [#114WW] Mounir Lazzez (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-04-02: W vs. [#209WW] John Howard (29-19-1) via UD ()
2021-09-14: L vs. [#65WW] Jack Della Maddalena (12-2-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: A.J. Fletcher (2-1-0)
2022-03-12: L vs. [#118WW] Matthew Semelsberger (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-08-31: W vs. [#256WW] Leonardo Damiani (11-4-1) via KO (Flying Knee) in 2:24 of round 1
2021-04-23: W vs. [NA] Ariel Juarez (3-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:13 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds A.J. Fletcher -158 58.79%
Elo K170 A.J. Fletcher 1402.26 +25.44 52.90%
Elo Modified A.J. Fletcher 1435.33 +18.08 51.98%
Glicko-1 A.J. Fletcher 1464.74 +63.54 59.04%
WHR A.J. Fletcher 1382.40 +9.42 51.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ange Loosa 126, A.J. Fletcher 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[*] Amir Albazi (14-1-0, -352) vs. [#75] Francisco Figueiredo (13-4-1, +279)

Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (3-0-0)
2021-01-23: W vs. [#35FLY] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-07-18: W vs. [#38FLY] Malcolm Gordon (14-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:42 of round 1
2019-11-15: W vs. [#608FLY] Ryan Curtis (5-3-0) via SUB in 2:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Francisco Figueiredo (2-1-0)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#252FLY] Daniel Lacerda (12-3-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:18 of round 1
2021-07-17: L vs. [#38FLY] Malcolm Gordon (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-01-20: W vs. [#166FLY] Jerome Rivera (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amir Albazi -352 74.69%
Elo K170 Amir Albazi 1689.44 +204.48 71.79%
Elo Modified Amir Albazi 1693.63 +171.94 67.98%
Glicko-1 Amir Albazi 1729.60 +177.78 73.56%
WHR Amir Albazi 1651.30 +141.27 65.60%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amir Albazi 574, Francisco Figueiredo 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amir Albazi leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#203] Jay Perrin (10-5-0, +160) vs. [#287] Qileng Aori (24-11-0, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Jay Perrin (2-1-0)
2022-02-19: L vs. [#48BW] Mario Bautista (10-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-09-17: W vs. [#322BW] Josh Smith (10-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:27 of round 2
2020-01-25: W vs. [#132BW] Diego Silva (15-7-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Qileng Aori (1-2-0)
2022-04-23: W vs. [#696BW] Cameron Else (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 1
2021-11-20: L vs. [#63FLY] Cody Durden (13-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-04-24: L vs. [#28FLY] Jeff Molina (11-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Qileng Aori -191 63.05%
Elo K170 Qileng Aori 1402.65 +11.17 51.27%
Elo Modified Jay Perrin 1434.61 +13.76 51.51%
Glicko-1 Qileng Aori 1456.10 +15.62 52.25%
WHR Jay Perrin 1427.96 +35.48 54.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jay Perrin 182, Qileng Aori 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#96] Victor Altamirano (10-2-0) vs. [#252] Daniel Lacerda (12-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Victor Altamirano (2-1-0)
2022-02-26: L vs. [#88FLY] Carlos Hernandez (8-1-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-08-31: W vs. [#232FLY] Carlos Candelario (8-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-02-19: W vs. [#363FLY] Nate Smith (6-3-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 50-44)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Lacerda (1-2-0)
2022-04-30: L vs. [#75FLY] Francisco Figueiredo (13-4-1) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:18 of round 1
2021-10-23: L vs. [#28FLY] Jeff Molina (11-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 0:46 of round 2

 

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Victor Altamirano 1465.18 +140.99 65.57%
Elo Modified Victor Altamirano 1500.81 +130.37 63.89%
Glicko-1 Victor Altamirano 1456.92 +96.46 63.54%
WHR Victor Altamirano 1390.84 +18.01 52.06%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Victor Altamirano 175, Daniel Lacerda 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Stored DD Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2022-8-14