Fight Matrix Program – UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes (07-30-2022)

Jul 25, 2022
Jason

Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#1DD/#4P4P] Julianna Pena (11-4-0, +230) vs. [#2/#3DD/#5P4P] Amanda Nunes (21-5-0, -289)
Julianna Pena is the All-Time #29 ranked Women’s fighter.
Amanda Nunes is the All-Time #1 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Julianna Pena (2-1-0)
2021-12-11: W vs. [#2BW/#3DD/#5P4P] Amanda Nunes (21-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2021-01-23: W vs. [#9BW] Sara McMann (13-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:39 of round 3
2020-10-03: L vs. [*] Germaine de Randamie (10-4-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:25 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Nunes (2-1-0)
2021-12-11: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#4P4P] Julianna Pena (11-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2021-03-06: W vs. [*] Megan Anderson (11-5-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 2:03 of round 1
2020-06-06: W vs. [*] Felicia Spencer (9-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-44)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Nunes -289 71.02%
Elo K170 Amanda Nunes 1886.31 +93.39 60.51%
Elo Modified Amanda Nunes 1874.27 +70.14 57.62%
Glicko-1 Amanda Nunes 1879.69 +35.54 55.10%
WHR Amanda Nunes 1882.07 +51.12 55.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julianna Pena 231, Amanda Nunes 231
Previous Match-up Record: Julianna Pena leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Nunes leads 5-2
.

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#2/#7DD] Brandon Moreno (19-6-2, -205) vs. [#3] Kai Kara France (24-9-0, +169)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #9 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Kai Kara France is the All-Time #27 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-1-1)
2022-01-22: L vs. [#1FLY/#5DD/#7P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2021-06-12: W vs. [#1FLY/#5DD/#7P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:26 of round 3
2020-12-12: D vs. [#1FLY/#5DD/#7P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Kai Kara France (3-0-0)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#5FLY] Askar Askarov (14-1-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-11: W vs. [#10FLY] Cody Garbrandt (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:21 of round 1
2021-03-06: W vs. [#22FLY] Rogerio Bontorin (17-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brandon Moreno -205 64.38%
Elo K170 Brandon Moreno 1982.58 +49.28 55.61%
Elo Modified Brandon Moreno 1944.86 +56.92 56.20%
Glicko-1 Brandon Moreno 2019.63 +62.36 58.88%
WHR Brandon Moreno 1895.59 +91.30 60.28%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 189, Kai Kara France 126
Previous Match-up Record: Brandon Moreno leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#6] Derrick Lewis (26-9-0, -120) vs. [#25] Sergei Pavlovich (15-1-0, -103)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #24 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (1-2-0)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#4HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-3-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:40 of round 2
2021-12-18: W vs. [#13HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2021-08-07: L vs. [#2HW+/#9P4P] Ciryl Gane (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:11 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (3-0-0)
2022-03-19: W vs. [#83HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:03 of round 1
2019-10-26: W vs. [#79HW+] Maurice Greene (10-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2019-04-20: W vs. [#59HW+] Marcelo Golm (10-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:06 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Derrick Lewis -120 51.80%
Elo K170 Derrick Lewis 1939.29 +109.93 62.30%
Elo Modified Derrick Lewis 1942.22 +108.22 61.63%
Glicko-1 Derrick Lewis 1997.84 +99.11 63.89%
WHR Derrick Lewis 1842.92 +49.47 55.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 168, Sergei Pavlovich 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#4] Alexandre Pantoja (24-5-0, -159) vs. [*] Alex Perez (24-6-0, +131)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #14 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alex Perez is the All-Time #31 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (2-1-0)
2021-08-21: W vs. [#9FLY] Brandon Royval (14-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 2
2021-02-06: W vs. [#7FLY] Manel Kape (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-07-18: L vs. [#5FLY] Askar Askarov (14-1-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (2-1-0)
2020-11-21: L vs. [#1FLY/#5DD/#7P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:57 of round 1
2020-06-06: W vs. [#16FLY] Jussier Formiga (24-8-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:06 of round 1
2020-01-25: W vs. [#226BW] Jordan Espinosa (15-10-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:33 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexandre Pantoja -159 58.64%
Elo K170 Alexandre Pantoja 1871.60 +22.41 52.56%
Elo Modified Alexandre Pantoja 1847.54 +15.23 51.67%
Glicko-1 Alexandre Pantoja 1920.51 +68.18 59.69%
WHR Alexandre Pantoja 1870.11 +163.35 67.84%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 343, Alex Perez 616
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alex Perez leads 2-1
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#7] Magomed Ankalaev (17-1-0, -468) vs. [#12] Anthony Smith (36-16-0, +347)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #28 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (3-0-0)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#10LHW] Thiago Santos (22-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-10-30: W vs. [#13LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-02-27: W vs. [#17LHW] Nikita Krylov (28-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (3-0-0)
2021-09-18: W vs. [#16LHW] Ryan Spann (20-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:47 of round 1
2021-04-24: W vs. [#35LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2020-11-28: W vs. [#36LHW] Devin Clark (13-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:34 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Magomed Ankalaev -468 78.64%
Elo K170 Magomed Ankalaev 2077.24 +86.13 59.71%
Elo Modified Magomed Ankalaev 2080.14 +78.31 58.49%
Glicko-1 Magomed Ankalaev 2156.95 +63.49 59.04%
WHR Magomed Ankalaev 2001.37 +86.54 59.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Ankalaev 140, Anthony Smith 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Magomed Ankalaev leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#26] Alex Morono (21-7-0, +138) vs. [#119] Matthew Semelsberger (10-3-0, -169)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Morono (3-0-0)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#132WW] Mickey Gall (7-5-0) via UD ()
2021-09-04: W vs. [#90WW] David Zawada (18-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-05-08: W vs. [*] Donald Cerrone (36-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:40 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matthew Semelsberger (2-1-0)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#219WW] A.J. Fletcher (9-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-09-25: W vs. [#995WW] Martin Sano (4-3-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:15 of round 1
2021-06-19: L vs. [#53WW] Kalinn Williams (13-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Matthew Semelsberger -169 59.92%
Elo K170 Alex Morono 1839.91 +248.21 75.66%
Elo Modified Alex Morono 1852.08 +268.78 76.44%
Glicko-1 Alex Morono 1911.49 +288.92 84.07%
WHR Alex Morono 1775.74 +273.97 77.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Morono 238, Matthew Semelsberger 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#31] Drew Dober (24-11-0, -236) vs. [#90] Rafael Alves (20-10-0, +189)

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (1-2-0)
2022-03-12: W vs. [#127LW] Terrance McKinney (12-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:17 of round 1
2021-06-12: L vs. [#56LW] Brad Riddell (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-03-06: L vs. [#6LW] Islam Makhachev (22-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:37 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Alves (2-1-0)
2021-11-13: W vs. [#78LW] Marc Diakiese (16-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:48 of round 1
2021-05-22: L vs. [#37LW] Damir Ismagulov (24-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-08-25: W vs. [#164FW] Alejandro Flores Garcia (22-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:55 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Drew Dober -236 66.99%
Elo K170 Drew Dober 1768.37 +29.81 53.40%
Elo Modified Drew Dober 1769.29 +30.72 53.36%
Glicko-1 Drew Dober 1801.47 +3.09 50.44%
WHR Rafael Alves 1780.91 +39.71 54.52%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Drew Dober 140, Rafael Alves 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#85] Dontale Mayes (9-4-0, -123) vs. [#212] Hamdy Abdelwahab (5-0-0, -100)

Last 3 Fights: Dontale Mayes (2-1-0)
2021-12-18: W vs. [#137HW+] Josh Parisian (15-5-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:26 of round 3
2020-11-14: W vs. [#186HW+] Roque Martinez (15-8-2) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#115HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (9-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Hamdy Abdelwahab (3-0-0)
2022-06-03: W vs. [NA] Matthew Strickland (0-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:00 of round 1
2022-03-19: W vs. [#696HW+] Tyler Lee (3-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 1
2022-01-21: W vs. [#361HW+] Dustin Clements (6-4-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 3:25 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dontale Mayes -123 52.45%
Elo K170 Dontale Mayes 1493.86 +186.88 70.14%
Elo Modified Dontale Mayes 1545.05 +147.97 65.65%
Glicko-1 Dontale Mayes 1546.86 +192.09 75.13%
WHR Dontale Mayes 1545.73 +275.36 77.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dontale Mayes 224, Hamdy Abdelwahab 57
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#60] Rafa Garcia (14-2-0, +176) vs. [#81] Drakkar Klose (12-2-1, -218)

Last 3 Fights: Rafa Garcia (2-1-0)
2022-04-16: W vs. [#138LW] Jesse Ronson (22-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:50 of round 2
2021-11-20: W vs. [#253LW] Natan Levy (7-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-07-31: L vs. [#131LW] Chris Gruetzemacher (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Drakkar Klose (2-1-0)
2022-04-16: W vs. [#307LW] Brandon Jenkins (15-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 2
2020-03-07: L vs. [#5LW] Beneil Dariush (21-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:00 of round 2
2019-08-17: W vs. [#95LW] Christos Giagos (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Drakkar Klose -218 65.42%
Elo K170 Drakkar Klose 1782.76 +95.26 60.71%
Elo Modified Drakkar Klose 1768.92 +93.92 60.14%
Glicko-1 Drakkar Klose 1785.76 +72.83 60.33%
WHR Drakkar Klose 1701.04 +108.86 62.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafa Garcia 105, Drakkar Klose 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#64] Michael Morales (13-0-0) vs. [#273] Adam Fugitt (8-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Morales (3-0-0)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#127WW] Trevin Giles (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 1
2021-09-21: W vs. [#163WW] Nikolay Veretennikov (9-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-04-30: W vs. [#1017FW] Miguel Arizmendi (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Adam Fugitt (3-0-0)
2022-02-25: W vs. [#353WW] Solomon Renfro (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1
2019-11-16: W vs. [#826LW] Devon Brock (8-5-0) via TKO in 1:44 of round 2
2019-04-27: W vs. [*] Reno Remigio (3-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:30 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Michael Morales 1687.97 +293.57 79.27%
Elo Modified Michael Morales 1693.64 +254.40 75.28%
Glicko-1 Michael Morales 1745.52 +275.30 82.99%
WHR Michael Morales 1694.85 +249.89 75.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Morales 189, Adam Fugitt 155
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#24FW] Joselyne Edwards (11-4-0, -133) vs. [#95] Ji Yeon Kim (9-5-2, +109)

Last 3 Fights: Joselyne Edwards (1-2-0)
2022-06-11: W vs. [#47FW] Ramona Pascual (6-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-10-23: L vs. [#34BW] Jessica-Rose Clark (11-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-02-06: L vs. [#14BW] Karol Rosa (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ji Yeon Kim (0-3-0)
2022-02-26: L vs. [#49FLY] Priscila Cachoeira (11-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-09-04: L vs. [#25FLY] Molly McCann (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-08-29: L vs. [#9FLY] Alexa Grasso (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joselyne Edwards -133 54.39%
Elo K170 Joselyne Edwards 1322.44 +175.10 68.99%
Elo Modified Joselyne Edwards 1364.38 +173.80 68.15%
Glicko-1 Joselyne Edwards 1371.48 +200.27 76.01%
WHR Joselyne Edwards 1279.90 +77.10 58.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joselyne Edwards 49, Ji Yeon Kim 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#72] Nicolae Negumereanu (12-1-0, +131) vs. [#104] Ihor Potieria (22-2-0, -159)

Last 3 Fights: Nicolae Negumereanu (3-0-0)
2022-03-05: W vs. [#53LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (10-3-0) via SD (29-27, 27-29, 29-27)
2021-10-23: W vs. [#191LHW] Isaac Villanueva (18-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 1
2021-06-19: W vs. [#142LHW] Aleksa Camur (6-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ihor Potieria (3-0-0)
2021-09-28: W vs. [#177HW+] Lukasz Sudolski (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2021-05-15: W vs. [NA] Giorgi Khubejashvili (5-8-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:12 of round 1
2021-03-14: W vs. [#623MW] Giorgi Lobzhanidze (11-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:15 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ihor Potieria -159 58.64%
Elo K170 Ihor Potieria 1581.04 +10.89 51.25%
Elo Modified Ihor Potieria 1562.85 +31.44 53.44%
Glicko-1 Ihor Potieria 1632.31 +125.44 67.31%
WHR Ihor Potieria 1536.97 +47.75 55.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nicolae Negumereanu 147, Ihor Potieria 305
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#232] Orion Cosce (7-1-0, -166) vs. [#858] Mike Mathetha (3-1-0, +133)

Last 3 Fights: Orion Cosce (2-1-0)
2021-07-31: L vs. [#99WW] Philip Rowe (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2
2020-08-18: W vs. [*] Matt Dixon (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 3
2020-01-25: W vs. [*] Wally Wester (2-2-0) via KO in 2:36 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Mike Mathetha (2-1-0)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#57WW] Jeremiah Wells (11-2-1) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:38 of round 1
2020-02-22: W vs. [#576LW] Dimps Tahau Tiopira Gilli (6-4-0) via UD ()
2018-07-21: W vs. [NA] Hyun Min Hwang (0-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Orion Cosce -166 59.25%
Elo K170 Orion Cosce 1339.57 +110.59 62.37%
Elo Modified Orion Cosce 1408.13 +71.38 57.75%
Glicko-1 Orion Cosce 1383.85 +166.70 72.31%
WHR Orion Cosce 1343.06 +123.40 63.73%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Orion Cosce 364, Mike Mathetha 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Derrick Lewis
Highest Stored DD Rating: Brandon Moreno
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara France
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Good [***]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2022-7-24

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