Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Walker (10-02-2021)

27 Sep , 2021,
Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Thiago Santos (21-9-0, -173) vs. [#16] Johnny Walker (18-5-0, +143)

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (0-3-0)
2021-03-06: L vs. [#7LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-11-07: L vs. [#3LHW] Glover Teixeira (32-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:49 of round 3
2019-07-06: L vs. [*] Jon Jones (26-1-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (1-2-0)
2020-09-19: W vs. [#20LHW] Ryan Spann (19-7-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:43 of round 1
2020-03-14: L vs. [#18LHW] Nikita Krylov (27-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#12LHW] Corey Anderson (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Thiago Santos -173 60.62%
Elo K170 Thiago Santos 1845.08 +67.72 57.67%
Elo Modified Thiago Santos 1897.72 +110.04 61.82%
Glicko-1 Thiago Santos 1990.18 +133.61 68.33%
WHR Thiago Santos 1878.79 +139.27 65.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thiago Santos 210, Johnny Walker 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[*] Aspen Ladd (9-1-0, -204) vs. [#9] Macy Chiasson (7-1-0, +167)

Last 3 Fights: Aspen Ladd (2-1-0)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#10BW] Yana Kunitskaya (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 3
2019-07-13: L vs. [#3BW/#9DD] Germaine de Randamie (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2019-05-18: W vs. [#14FLY] Sijara Eubanks (7-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Macy Chiasson (2-1-0)
2021-03-20: W vs. [*] Marion Reneau (9-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-02-15: W vs. [*] Shanna Young (7-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-09-28: L vs. [*] Lina Lansberg (10-5-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Aspen Ladd -204 64.18%
Elo K170 Aspen Ladd 1637.05 +118.20 63.18%
Elo Modified Aspen Ladd 1658.73 +35.65 53.89%
Glicko-1 Aspen Ladd 1662.62 +107.67 65.02%
WHR Aspen Ladd 1661.22 +154.22 66.92%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aspen Ladd 665, Macy Chiasson 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Aspen Ladd leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#12] Kevin Holland (21-7-0, -152) vs. [#74] Kyle Daukaus (10-2-0, +125)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (1-2-0)
2021-04-10: L vs. [#6MW] Marvin Vettori (16-5-1) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2021-03-20: L vs. [#4MW] Derek Brunson (23-7-0) via UD (49-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2020-12-12: W vs. [*] Ronaldo Souza (26-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Daukaus (1-2-0)
2021-05-08: L vs. [#64MW] Phil Hawes (11-2-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 30-26)
2020-11-21: W vs. [#134MW] Dustin Stoltzfus (13-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#24MW] Brendan Allen (17-4-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -152 57.57%
Elo K170 Kevin Holland 1808.05 +240.31 74.99%
Elo Modified Kevin Holland 1783.36 +178.44 68.59%
Glicko-1 Kevin Holland 1868.74 +241.55 80.06%
WHR Kevin Holland 1727.81 +179.99 69.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 175, Kyle Daukaus 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#30] Krzysztof Jotko (22-5-0, -171) vs. [#35LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-6-0, +140)

Last 3 Fights: Krzysztof Jotko (2-1-0)
2021-05-01: L vs. [#11MW] Sean Strickland (24-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-05-16: W vs. [#35MW] Eryk Anders (14-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#43MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (14-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Misha Cirkunov (1-2-0)
2021-03-13: L vs. [#20LHW] Ryan Spann (19-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:11 of round 1
2019-09-14: W vs. [#25LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-2-0) via Submission (Peruvian Necktie) in 3:38 of round 1
2019-03-02: L vs. [#16LHW] Johnny Walker (18-5-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:38 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Krzysztof Jotko -171 60.22%
Elo K170 Krzysztof Jotko 1776.34 +136.52 65.10%
Elo Modified Krzysztof Jotko 1770.20 +111.34 61.95%
Glicko-1 Krzysztof Jotko 1764.26 +85.92 62.12%
WHR Krzysztof Jotko 1699.09 +96.55 60.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Krzysztof Jotko 154, Misha Cirkunov 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#55] Joe Solecki (11-2-0, -150) vs. [#80] Jared Gordon (17-4-0, +122)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Solecki (3-0-0)
2021-04-10: W vs. [#69LW] Jim Miller (32-16-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-08-22: W vs. [#126LW] Austin Hubbard (13-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:51 of round 1
2019-12-07: W vs. [*] Matt Wiman (16-10-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (2-1-0)
2021-02-20: W vs. [#207FW] Danny Chavez (11-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-07-15: W vs. [#169FW] Chris Fishgold (18-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-11-16: L vs. [#2LW/#8DD] Charles Oliveira (31-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:26 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joe Solecki -150 57.11%
Elo K170 Joe Solecki 1746.72 +33.82 53.86%
Elo Modified Joe Solecki 1737.55 +20.95 52.29%
Glicko-1 Joe Solecki 1760.48 +55.28 57.89%
WHR Jared Gordon 1688.40 +75.38 58.52%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joe Solecki 175, Jared Gordon 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#12] Karol Rosa (14-3-0, -336) vs. [#19] Bethe Correia (11-5-1, +256)

Last 3 Fights: Karol Rosa (3-0-0)
2021-02-06: W vs. [#31BW] Joselyne Edwards (10-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#20BW] Vanessa Melo (11-8-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 30-26)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#48FLY] Lara Procopio (7-2-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Bethe Correia (1-2-0)
2020-07-25: L vs. [#8BW] Pannie Kianzad (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-09-21: W vs. [#14FLY] Sijara Eubanks (7-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#5BW] Irene Aldana (13-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:24 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karol Rosa -336 73.28%
Elo K170 Karol Rosa 1553.38 +237.76 74.77%
Elo Modified Karol Rosa 1538.93 +179.01 68.65%
Glicko-1 Karol Rosa 1538.48 +219.42 77.95%
WHR Karol Rosa 1533.62 +170.05 68.50%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karol Rosa 238, Bethe Correia 434
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#114] Douglas Silva de Andrade (26-4-0, -231) vs. [#290] Gaetano Pirrello (15-6-1, +185)

Last 3 Fights: Douglas Silva de Andrade (1-2-0)
2021-01-20: L vs. [#65FW] Lerone Murphy (10-0-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-11-16: W vs. [*] Renan Barao (34-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#2BW] Petr Yan (15-2-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Gaetano Pirrello (2-1-0)
2021-01-20: L vs. [#31FW] Ricky Simon (19-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:00 of round 2
2019-10-12: W vs. [*] Enzo Maria Iezzi (7-6-0) via TKO in 2:11 of round 1
2018-10-13: W vs. [*] Percy Herrera (8-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:13 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Douglas Silva de Andrade -231 66.54%
Elo K170 Douglas Silva de Andrade 1550.06 +175.17 69.00%
Elo Modified Douglas Silva de Andrade 1582.49 +197.70 70.38%
Glicko-1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 1600.51 +224.35 78.44%
WHR Douglas Silva de Andrade 1608.29 +230.28 74.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Douglas Silva de Andrade 255, Gaetano Pirrello 255
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#89] Devonte Smith (11-2-0, -162) vs. [#100] Jamie Mullarkey (14-4-0, +134)

Last 3 Fights: Devonte Smith (2-1-0)
2021-02-06: W vs. [#154FW] Justin Jaynes (16-8-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:38 of round 2
2019-08-17: L vs. [#129LW] Khama Worthy (16-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:15 of round 1
2019-02-09: W vs. [*] Dong Hyun Ma (17-11-3) via TKO (Punches) in 3:53 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jamie Mullarkey (1-2-0)
2021-03-27: W vs. [#129LW] Khama Worthy (16-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 1
2020-10-17: L vs. [#160LW] Fares Ziam (12-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#22LW] Brad Riddell (10-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Devonte Smith -162 59.12%
Elo K170 Devonte Smith 1645.16 +203.57 71.71%
Elo Modified Devonte Smith 1675.97 +185.05 69.21%
Glicko-1 Devonte Smith 1667.28 +133.28 68.29%
WHR Devonte Smith 1574.99 +65.37 57.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Devonte Smith 238, Jamie Mullarkey 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jamie Mullarkey leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[*] Alejandro Perez (21-8-1, -226) vs. [*] Johnny Eduardo (28-12-0, +180)

Last 3 Fights: Alejandro Perez (1-2-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#19BW] Yadong Song (17-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:04 of round 1
2019-03-02: L vs. [#23BW] Cody Stamann (19-4-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-07-14: W vs. [#91BW] Eddie Wineland (24-15-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Eduardo (1-2-0)
2018-06-01: L vs. [#125FW] Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:18 of round 2
2017-06-03: L vs. [*] Matthew Lopez (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2016-11-19: W vs. [*] Manny Gamburyan (15-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alejandro Perez -226 66.00%
Elo K170 Alejandro Perez 1599.68 +91.10 60.26%
Elo Modified Alejandro Perez 1604.38 +84.45 59.14%
Glicko-1 Alejandro Perez 1603.09 +58.16 58.29%
WHR Alejandro Perez 1496.89 +88.72 60.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alejandro Perez 819, Johnny Eduardo 1219
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alejandro Perez leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#63] Niko Price (14-5-0, -133) vs. [#69] Alex Oliveira (22-10-1, +108)

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2021-07-10: L vs. [#48WW] Michel Pereira (27-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-09-19: NC vs. [#32WW] Donald Cerrone (36-16-0)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#5WW] Vicente Luque (21-7-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage in 3:37 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Alex Oliveira (1-2-0)
2021-04-24: L vs. [#43WW] Randy Brown (13-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:50 of round 1
2020-10-24: L vs. [#36WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (14-0-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:40 of round 1
2020-07-25: W vs. [#252WW] Peter Sobotta (17-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Niko Price -133 54.27%
Elo K170 Alex Oliveira 1607.32 +12.10 51.38%
Elo Modified Niko Price 1632.43 +12.93 51.41%
Glicko-1 Niko Price 1654.05 +40.08 55.74%
WHR Niko Price 1620.78 +18.96 52.16%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Niko Price 84, Alex Oliveira 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Niko Price leads 2-1
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#19] Casey ONeill (7-0-0, -213) vs. [#25] Antonina Shevchenko (9-3-0, +171)

Last 3 Fights: Casey ONeill (3-0-0)
2021-06-19: W vs. [#48FLY] Lara Procopio (7-2-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:54 of round 3
2021-02-20: W vs. [#56FLY] Shana Dobson (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 2
2020-09-25: W vs. [#173FLY] Christina Stelliou (6-4-0) via TKO in 2:12 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Antonina Shevchenko (1-2-0)
2021-05-15: L vs. [#13FLY] Andrea Lee (12-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 4:52 of round 2
2020-11-21: W vs. [#31FLY] Ariane Lipski (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:33 of round 2
2020-05-30: L vs. [#3FLY/#10P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (16-4-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-25)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Casey ONeill -213 64.84%
Elo K170 Casey ONeill 1496.27 +129.41 64.37%
Elo Modified Casey ONeill 1556.25 +119.89 62.83%
Glicko-1 Casey ONeill 1542.67 +110.53 65.39%
WHR Casey ONeill 1465.65 +40.44 54.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Casey ONeill 105, Antonina Shevchenko 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#32] Stephanie Egger (5-2-0, +106) vs. [*] Shanna Young (7-3-0, -131)

Last 3 Fights: Stephanie Egger (2-1-0)
2020-10-10: L vs. [#17FLY] Tracy Cortez (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-09-05: W vs. [NA] Cinja Kiefer (4-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:00 of round 1
2019-07-28: W vs. [#46FW] Reina Miura (12-4-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Shanna Young (1-2-0)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#9BW] Macy Chiasson (7-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-11-01: W vs. [#47FW] Maiju Suotama (8-6-0) via UD (29-27, 28-27, 28-26)
2019-08-13: L vs. [#87FLY] Sarah Alpar (9-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:55 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Shanna Young -131 53.88%
Elo K170 Stephanie Egger 1259.28 +33.40 53.81%
Elo Modified Stephanie Egger 1295.21 +10.70 51.17%
Glicko-1 Stephanie Egger 1304.25 +74.33 60.54%
WHR Stephanie Egger 1273.14 +119.36 63.30%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stephanie Egger 357, Shanna Young 595
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#29] Alexander Hernandez (12-4-0, -350) vs. [#210] Mike Breeden (10-3-0, +270)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (1-2-0)
2021-02-27: L vs. [#17LW] Thiago Moises (15-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-10-31: W vs. [#75LW] Chris Gruetzemacher (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
2020-05-13: L vs. [#28LW] Drew Dober (23-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mike Breeden (2-1-0)
2021-05-07: W vs. [#755LW] Nick Compton (12-9-0) via UD ()
2020-12-11: W vs. [#535LW] Ken Beverly (9-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 3:37 of round 2
2020-08-25: L vs. [#214LW] Anthony Romero (9-1-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Hernandez -350 74.21%
Elo K170 Alexander Hernandez 1708.35 +255.06 76.23%
Elo Modified Alexander Hernandez 1702.30 +208.72 71.37%
Glicko-1 Alexander Hernandez 1769.13 +246.38 80.51%
WHR Alexander Hernandez 1667.28 +256.78 76.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Hernandez 217, Mike Breeden 148
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kevin Holland
Highest Stored DD Rating: Thiago Santos
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Aspen Ladd vs. Macy Chiasson
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2021-9-26