Fight Matrix Program – UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega (09-25-2021)

20 Sep , 2021,
Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD/#2P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (22-1-0, -176) vs. [#4] Brian Ortega (15-1-0, +146)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #4 ranked Featherweight and #43 ranked Absolute fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #13 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (3-0-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (22-6-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (22-6-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#5BW] Jose Aldo (30-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (2-1-0)
2020-10-17: W vs. [#6FW] Chan Sung Jung (17-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (22-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2018-03-03: W vs. [#7BW] Frankie Edgar (24-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkanovski -176 61.07%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkanovski 2365.63 +210.68 72.36%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkanovski 2271.49 +153.57 66.20%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkanovski 2330.22 +156.22 71.08%
WHR Alexander Volkanovski 2112.93 +64.61 57.33%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 441, Brian Ortega 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Volkanovski leads 2-0
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (21-3-0, -1572) vs. [#6] Lauren Murphy (15-4-0, +831)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (3-0-0)
2021-04-24: W vs. [#2FLY/#10DD/#9P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-9-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:19 of round 2
2020-11-21: W vs. [#4FLY] Jennifer Maia (19-7-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#3FLY/#10P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (16-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Lauren Murphy (3-0-0)
2021-06-12: W vs. [#10FLY] Joanne Calderwood (15-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-10-24: W vs. [#65FLY] Liliya Shakirova (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:31 of round 2
2020-06-20: W vs. [#21FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (25-18-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valentina Shevchenko -1572 89.74%
Elo K170 Valentina Shevchenko 1990.85 +296.58 79.49%
Elo Modified Valentina Shevchenko 1992.83 +377.26 83.91%
Glicko-1 Valentina Shevchenko 2027.25 +451.79 93.09%
WHR Valentina Shevchenko 2000.98 +463.56 89.26%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 154, Lauren Murphy 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Valentina Shevchenko leads 2-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#52WW] Robbie Lawler (28-15-0, -146) vs. [*] Nick Diaz (26-9-0, +121)
Robbie Lawler is the All-Time #28 ranked Middleweight and #29 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (0-3-0)
2020-08-29: L vs. [#9WW] Neil Magny (25-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-08-03: L vs. [#2WW] Colby Covington (16-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
2019-03-02: L vs. [*] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via Technical Submission (Bulldog Choke) in 3:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nick Diaz (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2015-01-31: NC vs. [#45MW] Anderson Silva (34-11-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [*] Georges St. Pierre (26-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2012-02-04: L vs. [*] Carlos Condit (32-14-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Robbie Lawler -146 56.73%
Elo K170 Nick Diaz 1941.28 +10.03 51.15%
Elo Modified Nick Diaz 1931.21 +41.56 54.54%
Glicko-1 Nick Diaz 2011.49 +76.87 60.89%
WHR Nick Diaz 1805.62 +173.58 68.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 392, Nick Diaz 2429
Previous Match-up Record: Nick Diaz leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Robbie Lawler leads 3-2
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#5] Curtis Blaydes (14-3-0, -319) vs. [#6] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-2-0, +251)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #30 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (2-1-0)
2021-02-20: L vs. [#4HW+] Derrick Lewis (25-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:26 of round 2
2020-06-20: W vs. [#7HW+] Alexander Volkov (33-9-0) via UD (48-47, 48-46, 49-46)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#9HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2-1-0)
2021-06-05: W vs. [#17HW+] Augusto Sakai (15-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2021-02-27: L vs. [#3HW+] Ciryl Gane (10-0-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2020-08-15: W vs. [#9HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:47 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Curtis Blaydes -319 72.76%
Elo K170 Curtis Blaydes 2024.70 +153.71 66.87%
Elo Modified Curtis Blaydes 2025.45 +148.27 65.68%
Glicko-1 Curtis Blaydes 2078.60 +121.41 66.80%
WHR Curtis Blaydes 1898.55 +23.82 52.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 217, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#2/#10DD/#9P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-9-0, -266) vs. [#8] Cynthia Calvillo (9-2-1, +211)
Jessica Andrade is the All-Time #18 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Andrade (1-2-0)
2021-04-24: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (21-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:19 of round 2
2020-10-17: W vs. [#3FLY/#10P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (16-4-0) via KO (Punches to the Body) in 4:55 of round 1
2020-07-11: L vs. [#1SW/#2DD/#3P4P] Rose Namajunas (10-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Cynthia Calvillo (1-1-1)
2020-11-21: L vs. [#3FLY/#10P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (16-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#16FLY] Jessica Eye (15-10-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-12-07: D vs. [#4SW] Marina Rodriguez (14-1-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jessica Andrade -266 69.33%
Elo K170 Jessica Andrade 1736.08 +141.82 65.66%
Elo Modified Jessica Andrade 1766.92 +136.66 64.52%
Glicko-1 Jessica Andrade 1772.92 +169.19 72.59%
WHR Jessica Andrade 1724.98 +197.66 71.16%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Andrade 154, Cynthia Calvillo 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica Andrade leads 2-1
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#8] Marlon Moraes (23-8-1, +204) vs. [#10] Merab Dvalishvili (13-4-0, -257)
Marlon Moraes is the All-Time #9 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Moraes (1-2-0)
2020-12-19: L vs. [#6BW] Rob Font (19-4-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 3:47 of round 1
2020-10-10: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (14-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 1:03 of round 2
2019-12-14: W vs. [#5BW] Jose Aldo (30-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Merab Dvalishvili (3-0-0)
2021-05-01: W vs. [#22BW] Cody Stamann (19-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-08-15: W vs. [#26BW] John Dodson (21-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#136BW] Gustavo Lopez (12-6-1) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Merab Dvalishvili -257 68.64%
Elo K170 Merab Dvalishvili 1933.71 +27.94 53.19%
Elo Modified Merab Dvalishvili 1938.71 +86.68 59.37%
Glicko-1 Merab Dvalishvili 1956.77 +106.18 64.82%
WHR Merab Dvalishvili 1842.37 +71.13 58.05%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Moraes 280, Merab Dvalishvili 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#10] Dan Hooker (20-10-0, -150) vs. [#52] Nasrat Haqparast (13-3-0, +124)
Dan Hooker is the All-Time #50 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (1-2-0)
2021-01-23: L vs. [#7LW] Michael Chandler (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 1
2020-06-27: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD/#10P4P] Dustin Poirier (28-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-46)
2020-02-22: W vs. [*] Paul Felder (17-6-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Nasrat Haqparast (2-1-0)
2021-03-13: W vs. [#133LW] Rafa Garcia (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#195LW] Alex Munoz (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-01-18: L vs. [#28LW] Drew Dober (23-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dan Hooker -150 57.33%
Elo K170 Dan Hooker 1953.85 +192.89 70.71%
Elo Modified Dan Hooker 1884.72 +126.15 63.46%
Glicko-1 Dan Hooker 1917.99 +155.58 71.00%
WHR Dan Hooker 1788.70 +99.67 61.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hooker 245, Nasrat Haqparast 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#14] Chris Daukaus (11-3-0, -208) vs. [*] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0, +170)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Daukaus (3-0-0)
2021-02-20: W vs. [#20HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-16-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 1
2020-10-10: W vs. [#106HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
2020-08-15: W vs. [#67HW+] Parker Porter (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 4:28 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Shamil Abdurakhimov (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: L vs. [#5HW+] Curtis Blaydes (14-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punch) in 2:22 of round 2
2019-04-20: W vs. [#10HW+] Marcin Tybura (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2
2018-09-15: W vs. [#33HW+] Andrei Arlovski (31-20-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chris Daukaus -208 64.57%
Elo K170 Shamil Abdurakhimov 1748.30 +96.17 60.81%
Elo Modified Shamil Abdurakhimov 1748.92 +63.08 56.86%
Glicko-1 Shamil Abdurakhimov 1779.26 +36.89 55.29%
WHR Shamil Abdurakhimov 1736.33 +65.10 57.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Daukaus 217, Shamil Abdurakhimov 749
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#11] Taila Santos (17-1-0, -415) vs. [#21] Roxanne Modafferi (25-18-0, +317)
Roxanne Modafferi is the All-Time #24 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Taila Santos (2-1-0)
2020-12-19: W vs. [#28FLY] Gillian Robertson (9-6-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 30-26)
2020-07-15: W vs. [#49FLY] Molly McCann (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-02: L vs. [#78FLY] Mara Romero Borella (12-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Roxanne Modafferi (1-2-0)
2021-01-20: L vs. [#9FLY] Viviane Araujo (10-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#13FLY] Andrea Lee (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-06-20: L vs. [#6FLY] Lauren Murphy (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Taila Santos -415 77.06%
Elo K170 Taila Santos 1608.16 +179.31 69.41%
Elo Modified Taila Santos 1640.95 +185.23 69.23%
Glicko-1 Taila Santos 1666.50 +215.75 77.59%
WHR Taila Santos 1588.02 +178.32 69.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Taila Santos 280, Roxanne Modafferi 248
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#154] Jalin Turner (10-5-0, +103) vs. [#367] Uros Medic (7-0-0, -125)

Last 3 Fights: Jalin Turner (2-1-0)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#228LW] Brok Weaver (16-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:20 of round 2
2020-02-22: W vs. [#118FW] Joshua Culibao (10-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 2
2019-04-13: L vs. [#196LW] Matt Frevola (8-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Uros Medic (3-0-0)
2021-03-06: W vs. [#465LW] Aalon Cruz (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:40 of round 1
2020-08-04: W vs. [#788LW] Mikey Gonzalez (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1
2019-05-22: W vs. [NA] Alonzo Leisholm Jr. (4-2-0) via TKO in 2:52 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Uros Medic -125 53.00%
Elo K170 Jalin Turner 1576.59 +129.89 64.42%
Elo Modified Jalin Turner 1542.91 +32.58 53.56%
Glicko-1 Jalin Turner 1575.78 +56.86 58.11%
WHR Uros Medic 1492.50 +11.45 51.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jalin Turner 378, Uros Medic 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#201] Cody Brundage (6-1-0) vs. [#168LHW] Nick Maximov (7-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Cody Brundage (2-1-0)
2021-02-12: W vs. [#473MW] Joseph Kropschot (4-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle) in 0:39 of round 3
2020-09-01: L vs. [#70LHW] William Knight (10-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:23 of round 1
2020-02-08: W vs. [#270LHW] Erick Lozano (13-18-0) via SUB in 4:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nick Maximov (3-0-0)
2020-11-17: W vs. [#281HW+] Oscar Cota (11-3-0) via UD ()
2020-09-11: W vs. [#477LHW] Johnny James Jr. (1-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 2
2020-01-11: W vs. [NA] Robert Allensworth (1-11-0) via SUB in 1:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Nick Maximov 1343.37 +22.61 52.58%
Elo Modified Cody Brundage 1417.43 +74.02 58.03%
Glicko-1 Nick Maximov 1384.17 +28.13 54.04%
WHR Nick Maximov 1343.54 +61.48 56.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Brundage 225, Nick Maximov 312
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#136] Matthew Semelsberger (8-3-0, -497) vs. [*] Martin Sano (4-2-1, +363)

Last 3 Fights: Matthew Semelsberger (2-1-0)
2021-06-19: L vs. [#60WW] Kalinn Williams (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2021-03-13: W vs. [#94WW] Jason Witt (19-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:16 of round 1
2020-08-22: W vs. [#446LW] Carlton Minus (10-3-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Martin Sano (0-2-1)
2017-02-18: D vs. [*] Diego Herzog (4-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2016-05-14: L vs. [*] Danasabe Mohammed (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 1
2014-12-13: L vs. [*] Dominic Waters (10-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Matthew Semelsberger -497 79.39%
Elo K170 Matthew Semelsberger 1489.76 +297.04 79.53%
Elo Modified Matthew Semelsberger 1468.79 +182.00 68.93%
Glicko-1 Matthew Semelsberger 1499.43 +272.83 82.79%
WHR Matthew Semelsberger 1428.67 +182.00 69.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matthew Semelsberger 98, Martin Sano 1680
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#67] Omar Morales (10-1-0, -155) vs. [#156] Jonathan Pearce (10-4-0, +129)

Last 3 Fights: Omar Morales (2-1-0)
2021-03-27: W vs. [#218FW] Shane Young (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-10-10: L vs. [#8FW] Giga Chikadze (14-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#186FW] Gabriel Benitez (22-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Pearce (2-1-0)
2020-11-28: W vs. [#303FW] Kai Kamaka III (8-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2
2019-10-18: L vs. [*] Joe Lauzon (28-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:33 of round 1
2019-07-09: W vs. [#226LW] Jacob Rosales (13-6-0) via TKO (Punch) in 1:50 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Omar Morales -155 58.19%
Elo K170 Omar Morales 1612.04 +164.55 67.96%
Elo Modified Omar Morales 1620.97 +127.54 63.61%
Glicko-1 Omar Morales 1632.43 +153.31 70.74%
WHR Omar Morales 1637.56 +197.86 71.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Omar Morales 182, Jonathan Pearce 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alexander Volkanovski
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alexander Volkanovski
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Good [***]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2021-9-24