Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night 158: Cowboy vs. Gaethje (09-14-2019)

Lightweight (155)
[#4] Donald Cerrone (36-12-0, +159) vs. [#5] Justin Gaethje (20-2-0, -193)
Donald Cerrone is the All-Time #16 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #36 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (2-1-0)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#2LW/#4DD/#8P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-05-04: W vs. [#8LW] Al Iaquinta (15-5-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)
2019-01-19: W vs. [#9LW] Alexander Hernandez (11-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#12LW] Edson Barboza (20-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1
2018-08-25: W vs. [#34LW] James Vick (13-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:27 of round 1
2018-04-14: L vs. [#3LW/#7DD] Dustin Poirier (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 4

Odds Favorite (Implied): Justin Gaethje – Win%: 63.04
Elo Favorite (Standard): Justin Gaethje (2106.90) [+53.58] – Win%: 56.09
Elo Favorite (Modified): Justin Gaethje (2054.74) [+44.19] – Win%: 54.82
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 98, Justin Gaethje 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Donald Cerrone leads 3-2
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Glover Teixeira (29-7-0, -120) vs. [#16] Nikita Krylov (25-6-0, -105)
Glover Teixeira is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#44LHW] Ion Cutelaba (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:37 of round 2
2019-01-19: W vs. [#57MW] Karl Roberson (8-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:21 of round 1
2018-07-22: L vs. [#7LHW] Corey Anderson (12-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Nikita Krylov (2-1-0)
2019-04-13: W vs. [#28LHW] Ovince St. Preux (23-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:30 of round 2
2018-09-15: L vs. [#6LHW] Jan Blachowicz (24-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:41 of round 2
2018-05-19: W vs. [#87HW+] Fabio Maldonado (25-13-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:33 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Glover Teixeira – Win%: 51.57
Elo Favorite (Standard): Glover Teixeira (1890.90) [+87.72] – Win%: 59.89
Elo Favorite (Modified): Glover Teixeira (1923.08) [+94.18] – Win%: 60.16
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 140, Nikita Krylov 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#14] Uriah Hall (14-9-0, +138) vs. [#24] Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-3-0, -166)

Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (2-1-0)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#157MW] Bevon Lewis (6-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:32 of round 3
2018-07-07: L vs. [#1MW] Paulo Henrique Costa (13-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 2
2017-09-16: W vs. [#25MW] Krzysztof Jotko (21-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:25 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Carlos Jr. (2-1-0)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#20MW] Ian Heinisch (13-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#30MW] Tim Boetsch (21-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:28 of round 1
2017-10-28: W vs. [#100MW] Jack Marshman (23-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:30 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Antonio Carlos Jr. – Win%: 59.76
Elo Favorite (Standard): Antonio Carlos Jr. (1791.06) [+74.70] – Win%: 58.45
Elo Favorite (Modified): Antonio Carlos Jr. (1803.75) [+16.36] – Win%: 51.79
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uriah Hall 259, Antonio Carlos Jr. 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#19] Jim Crute (10-0-0, -130) vs. [#37] Misha Cirkunov (14-5-0, +105)

Last 3 Fights: Jim Crute (3-0-0)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#32LHW] Sam Alvey (33-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 1
2018-12-01: W vs. [#69LHW] Paul Craig (11-4-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 4:51 of round 3
2018-07-24: W vs. [#262LHW] Chris Birchler (7-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Misha Cirkunov (1-2-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#24LHW] Johnny Walker (17-3-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2018-10-27: W vs. [#57LHW] Patrick Cummins (10-7-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:40 of round 1
2017-12-16: L vs. [#8LHW] Glover Teixeira (29-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jim Crute – Win%: 53.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jim Crute (1712.28) [+93.24] – Win%: 60.49
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jim Crute (1745.48) [+103.22] – Win%: 61.11
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Crute 217, Misha Cirkunov 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#46] Marvin Vettori (13-4-1, -287) vs. [#49] Andrew Sanchez (10-4-0, +229)

Last 3 Fights: Marvin Vettori (1-1-1)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#56MW] Cezar Ferreira (13-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-04-14: L vs. [#2MW] Israel Adesanya (17-0-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2017-12-30: D vs. [#16MW] Omari Akhmedov (19-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Andrew Sanchez (2-1-0)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#65MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-08-25: W vs. [#73MW] Markus Perez (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-12-01: L vs. [*] Ryan Janes (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marvin Vettori – Win%: 70.92
Elo Favorite (Standard): Andrew Sanchez (1715.46) [+26.30] – Win%: 53.00
Elo Favorite (Modified): Andrew Sanchez (1742.52) [+2.56] – Win%: 50.28
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marvin Vettori 63, Andrew Sanchez 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#25] Marcin Tybura (17-5-0, -126) vs. [#36] Augusto Sakai (13-1-1, +102)

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (1-2-0)
2019-04-20: L vs. [#16HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2
2018-07-22: W vs. [#27HW+] Stefan Struve (29-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-02-18: L vs. [#5HW+] Derrick Lewis (21-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Augusto Sakai (3-0-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#32HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-18-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-09-22: W vs. [#78HW+] Chase Sherman (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:03 of round 3
2018-08-10: W vs. [#255LHW] Marcos Conrado Jr. (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marcin Tybura – Win%: 52.96
Elo Favorite (Standard): Augusto Sakai (1678.99) [+20.91] – Win%: 52.39
Elo Favorite (Modified): Marcin Tybura (1680.51) [+2.16] – Win%: 50.24
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Tybura 147, Augusto Sakai 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#61] Jeff Hughes (10-2-0, -100) vs. [*] Todd Duffee (9-3-0, -124)

Last 3 Fights: Jeff Hughes (2-1-0)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#47HW+] Maurice Greene (8-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-07-24: W vs. [#144HW+] Josh Appelt (15-7-0) via TKO (Punch) in 4:26 of round 1
2018-04-27: W vs. [#47HW+] Maurice Greene (8-2-0) via UD (48-47, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Todd Duffee (2-1-0)
2015-07-15: L vs. [#63HW+] Frank Mir (18-13-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:13 of round 1
2014-12-06: W vs. [#75HW+] Anthony Hamilton (18-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:33 of round 1
2012-12-29: W vs. [#18HW+] Philip De Fries (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Todd Duffee – Win%: 52.54
Elo Favorite (Standard): Todd Duffee (1582.15) [+90.50] – Win%: 60.19
Elo Favorite (Modified): Todd Duffee (1625.90) [+49.19] – Win%: 55.36
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeff Hughes 189, Todd Duffee 1522
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#166] Louis Smolka (15-6-0, -226) vs. [#273] Ryan MacDonald (10-1-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Louis Smolka (2-1-0)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#7FLY] Matt Schnell (14-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#87BW] Su Mudaerji (12-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:07 of round 2
2018-10-20: W vs. [#337BW] Kyle Estrada (10-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ryan MacDonald (2-1-0)
2019-03-23: L vs. [*] Chris Gutierrez (14-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-09-07: W vs. [#784BW] Trevor Ward (6-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:06 of round 2
2018-03-24: W vs. [#1564BW] Matt Murphy (7-11-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Louis Smolka – Win%: 66.16
Elo Favorite (Standard): Louis Smolka (1470.87) [+110.75] – Win%: 62.39
Elo Favorite (Modified): Louis Smolka (1469.63) [+90.43] – Win%: 59.77
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Louis Smolka 189, Ryan MacDonald 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#109] Miles Johns (9-0-0, -147) vs. [#171] Cole Smith (7-0-0, +120)

Last 3 Fights: Miles Johns (3-0-0)
2019-06-25: W vs. [#620BW] Richie Santiago (7-2-0) via UD ()
2018-11-30: W vs. [#182BW] Adrian Yanez (9-3-0) via SD (49-46, 48-47, 47-48)
2018-05-25: W vs. [#267BW] Eric Ellington (7-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:13 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Cole Smith (3-0-0)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#384BW] Mitch Gagnon (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-01-12: W vs. [#720BW] Tyler Wilson (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:26 of round 1
2018-03-17: W vs. [*] Carlos Galvan (3-3-0) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Miles Johns – Win%: 56.69
Elo Favorite (Standard): Miles Johns (1583.24) [+60.21] – Win%: 56.83
Elo Favorite (Modified): Miles Johns (1575.87) [+13.53] – Win%: 51.48
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miles Johns 81, Cole Smith 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#149] Austin Hubbard (10-3-0, -195) vs. [#181] Kyle Prepolec (12-6-0, +161)

Last 3 Fights: Austin Hubbard (2-1-0)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#70LW] Davi Ramos (10-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-07: W vs. [#328LW] Killys Mota (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 5
2018-05-04: W vs. [#146LW] Harvey Park (12-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Prepolec (2-1-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#103WW] Nordine Taleb (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#340LW] Cody Pfister (15-7-1) via UD ()
2018-06-23: W vs. [#413WW] Scott Hudson (10-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Austin Hubbard – Win%: 63.30
Elo Favorite (Standard): Austin Hubbard (1557.78) [+110.69] – Win%: 62.38
Elo Favorite (Modified): Austin Hubbard (1578.77) [+100.43] – Win%: 60.82
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Austin Hubbard 119, Kyle Prepolec 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#62] Brad Katona (8-1-0, -163) vs. [#168] Hunter Azure (7-0-0, +135)

Last 3 Fights: Brad Katona (2-1-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#33BW] Merab Dvalishvili (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#77BW] Matthew Lopez (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-07-06: W vs. [#259FW] Jay Cucciniello (8-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Hunter Azure (3-0-0)
2019-07-09: W vs. [#664BW] Chris Ocon (4-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-05-10: W vs. [#458BW] L.J. Schulz (7-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-01: W vs. [#1550BW] Jaime Hernandez (4-3-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 2:15 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Brad Katona – Win%: 59.29
Elo Favorite (Standard): Brad Katona (1600.01) [+159.00] – Win%: 67.40
Elo Favorite (Modified): Brad Katona (1632.79) [+145.46] – Win%: 65.40
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brad Katona 133, Hunter Azure 67
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#94] Chas Skelly (17-4-0, +106) vs. [#131] Jordan Griffin (17-6-0, -131)

Last 3 Fights: Chas Skelly (1-2-0)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#92FW] Bobby Moffett (14-5-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:43 of round 2
2017-05-13: L vs. [#70FW] Jason Knight (20-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 3
2017-02-04: W vs. [*] Chris Gruetzemacher (14-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:01 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jordan Griffin (2-1-0)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#30FW] Dan Ige (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-31: W vs. [#609FW] Maurice Mitchell (11-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2018-06-01: W vs. [#187BW] Shawn West (16-10-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:52 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jordan Griffin – Win%: 53.88
Elo Favorite (Standard): Chas Skelly (1616.73) [+66.57] – Win%: 57.55
Elo Favorite (Modified): Chas Skelly (1630.58) [+53.84] – Win%: 55.87
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chas Skelly 308, Jordan Griffin 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Donald Cerrone
Highest Stored DD Rating: Donald Cerrone
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2019-9-8