Fight Matrix Program – UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (2020-07-11)

9 Jul , 2020,
Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#3DD/#5P4P] Kamaru Usman (16-1-0, -250) vs. [#2] Jorge Masvidal (35-13-0, +199)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Jorge Masvidal is the All-Time #24 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#4WW] Colby Covington (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 5
2019-03-02: W vs. [#6WW] Tyron Woodley (19-5-1) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-44)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#11WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-13-0) via UD (49-45, 50-43, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#12WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-07-06: W vs. [*] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [#8MW] Darren Till (18-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kamaru Usman -250 68.11%
Elo K170 Kamaru Usman 2396.13 +176.08 69.09%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2317.36 +101.19 60.90%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2384.93 +27.47 53.95%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2146.61 +63.71 57.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 210, Jorge Masvidal 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0
.

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0, -217) vs. [#2/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0, +176)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #7 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #14 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#3BW] Jose Aldo (28-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-29: W vs. [*] Chad Mendes (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#7FW] Frankie Edgar (23-8-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#3LW/#7DD] Dustin Poirier (26-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkanovski -217 65.38%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkanovski 2308.02 +119.40 63.31%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkanovski 2269.35 +115.50 62.38%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkanovski 2338.08 +89.98 62.67%
WHR Alexander Volkanovski 2101.19 +50.64 55.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 210, Max Holloway 210
Previous Match-up Record: Alexander Volkanovski leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 2-1
.

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#3] Jose Aldo (28-6-0, +180) vs. [#4] Petr Yan (14-1-0, -224)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #3 ranked Absolute fighter.
Petr Yan is the All-Time #40 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1BW/#9DD] Marlon Moraes (23-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#25LW] Renato Carneiro (14-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#16BW] Urijah Faber (35-11-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:43 of round 3
2019-06-08: W vs. [#14BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#10BW] John Dodson (21-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Petr Yan -224 65.94%
Elo K170 Petr Yan 2060.78 +70.94 58.03%
Elo Modified Petr Yan 2050.13 +23.41 52.56%
Glicko-1 Jose Aldo 2118.97 +27.90 54.01%
WHR Petr Yan 1993.22 +59.83 56.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 210, Petr Yan 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#2/#5DD/#8P4P] Jessica Andrade (20-7-0, +171) vs. [#4] Rose Namajunas (8-4-0, -210)
Jessica Andrade is the All-Time #20 ranked Women’s fighter.
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #17 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Andrade (2-1-0)
2019-08-31: L vs. [#1SW/#3DD/#2P4P] Weili Zhang (21-1-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:42 of round 1
2019-05-11: W vs. [#4SW] Rose Namajunas (8-4-0) via KO (Slam) in 2:58 of round 2
2018-09-08: W vs. [#25SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:58 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#2SW/#5DD/#8P4P] Jessica Andrade (20-7-0) via KO (Slam) in 2:58 of round 2
2018-04-07: W vs. [#3SW/#7DD/#10P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2017-11-04: W vs. [#3SW/#7DD/#10P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:03 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rose Namajunas -210 64.73%
Elo K170 Jessica Andrade 1795.47 +47.13 55.36%
Elo Modified Jessica Andrade 1778.59 +32.12 53.51%
Glicko-1 Jessica Andrade 1779.84 +50.29 57.19%
WHR Jessica Andrade 1652.00 +34.88 53.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Andrade 315, Rose Namajunas 427
Previous Match-up Record: Jessica Andrade leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rose Namajunas leads 4-3
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#13SW] Amanda Ribas (9-1-0, -843) vs. [*] Paige VanZant (8-4-0, +551)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (3-0-0)
2020-03-14: W vs. [#21SW] Randa Markos (10-8-1) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-25)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#32SW] Mackenzie Dern (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#70SW] Emily Whitmire (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:10 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paige VanZant (1-2-0)
2019-01-19: W vs. [*] Rachael Ostovich (4-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:50 of round 2
2018-01-14: L vs. [#40BW] Jessica-Rose Clark (9-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2016-12-17: L vs. [#11SW] Michelle Waterson (17-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:21 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Ribas -843 85.33%
Elo K170 Amanda Ribas 1568.40 +285.58 78.66%
Elo Modified Amanda Ribas 1590.04 +313.34 79.76%
Glicko-1 Amanda Ribas 1559.42 +283.43 83.64%
WHR Amanda Ribas 1595.77 +330.16 81.88%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Ribas 119, Paige VanZant 539
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Volkan Oezdemir (17-4-0, -158) vs. [#14] Jiri Prochazka (26-3-1, +130)
Volkan Oezdemir is the All-Time #31 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Volkan Oezdemir (2-1-0)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#19LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (12-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#48HW+] Ilir Latifi (14-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2
2019-03-16: L vs. [#7LHW] Dominick Reyes (12-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jiri Prochazka (3-0-0)
2019-12-31: W vs. [#73LHW] C.B. Dollaway (17-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 1
2019-10-12: W vs. [#89HW+] Fabio Maldonado (26-14-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:49 of round 1
2019-04-21: W vs. [#66LHW] Muhammed Lawal (21-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:02 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Volkan Oezdemir -158 58.47%
Elo K170 Jiri Prochazka 1933.55 +51.80 55.89%
Elo Modified Jiri Prochazka 1939.98 +98.50 60.62%
Glicko-1 Jiri Prochazka 2035.47 +137.60 68.83%
WHR Jiri Prochazka 1939.37 +108.94 62.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Volkan Oezdemir 203, Jiri Prochazka 193
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#27] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (22-6-0, +112) vs. [#42] Muslim Salikhov (16-2-0, -137)

Last 3 Fights: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (2-1-0)
2020-03-14: W vs. [#53WW] Alexey Kunchenko (20-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-31: L vs. [#34WW] Jingliang Li (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2019-03-09: W vs. [#55MW] Curtis Millender (18-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:35 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Muslim Salikhov (3-0-0)
2019-10-26: W vs. [#82WW] Laureano Staropoli (9-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#93WW] Nordine Taleb (15-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:26 of round 1
2018-04-14: W vs. [*] Ricky Rainey (13-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Muslim Salikhov -137 55.06%
Elo K170 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 1969.18 +176.97 69.18%
Elo Modified Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 1948.69 +148.95 65.75%
Glicko-1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 1997.99 +149.09 70.23%
WHR Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 1840.39 +107.32 62.02%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 119, Muslim Salikhov 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#56] Makwan Amirkhani (15-4-0, -200) vs. [*] Danny Henry (12-3-0, +164)

Last 3 Fights: Makwan Amirkhani (2-1-0)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#20FW] Shane Burgos (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 3
2019-06-01: W vs. [#135FW] Chris Fishgold (18-3-1) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:25 of round 2
2018-05-27: W vs. [*] Jason Knight (20-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

Last 3 Fights: Danny Henry (2-1-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#10FW] Dan Ige (14-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:17 of round 1
2018-03-17: W vs. [#76FW] Hakeem Dawodu (11-1-1) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:39 of round 1
2017-07-16: W vs. [#341FW] Daniel Teymur (7-4-0) via UD (29-26, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Makwan Amirkhani -200 63.76%
Elo K170 Makwan Amirkhani 1658.90 +51.49 55.85%
Elo Modified Makwan Amirkhani 1652.17 +6.59 50.72%
Glicko-1 Makwan Amirkhani 1671.86 +17.20 52.47%
WHR Danny Henry 1585.02 +10.86 51.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Makwan Amirkhani 252, Danny Henry 483
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#23] Leonardo Santos (17-3-1, -173) vs. [#70] Roman Bogatov (10-0-0, +144)

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2019-06-01: W vs. [#38LW] Stevie Ray (23-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:17 of round 1
2016-10-08: W vs. [#280LW] Adriano Martins (28-11-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-12-12: W vs. [#8LW] Kevin Lee (18-6-0) via TKO in 3:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Roman Bogatov (3-0-0)
2019-08-30: W vs. [#192LW] Mickael Lebout (19-10-2) via TKO (Shoulder injury) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-01-26: W vs. [#148LW] Michel Silva (22-8-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2
2018-09-28: W vs. [#542LW] Rubenilton Pereira (20-8-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Leonardo Santos -173 60.72%
Elo K170 Leonardo Santos 1994.19 +241.94 75.13%
Elo Modified Leonardo Santos 1934.34 +137.10 64.57%
Glicko-1 Leonardo Santos 1978.35 +130.36 67.93%
WHR Leonardo Santos 1912.74 +145.55 66.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leonardo Santos 406, Roman Bogatov 316
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#26] Marcin Tybura (18-6-0, -114) vs. [#25LHW] Maxim Grishin (30-7-2, -109)

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (1-2-0)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#39HW+] Sergey Spivak (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#15HW+] Augusto Sakai (15-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:59 of round 1
2019-04-20: L vs. [#19HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Maxim Grishin (2-0-1)
2019-10-31: D vs. [#34LHW] Jordan Johnson (12-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-08-08: W vs. [#106LHW] Mikhail Mokhnatkin (12-5-2) via KO (Punch) in 0:48 of round 1
2019-06-06: W vs. [#34LHW] Jordan Johnson (12-2-1) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marcin Tybura -114 50.53%
Elo K170 Maxim Grishin 1797.34 +133.63 64.80%
Elo Modified Maxim Grishin 1816.27 +131.09 63.96%
Glicko-1 Maxim Grishin 1835.28 +142.41 69.42%
WHR Maxim Grishin 1721.60 +101.20 61.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Tybura 133, Maxim Grishin 254
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#9] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-3-0, +145) vs. [#32] Raulian Paiva (19-3-0, -175)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov is the All-Time #40 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Zhalgas Zhumagulov (3-0-0)
2019-10-19: W vs. [#18FLY] Ali Bagautinov (19-7-0) via SD (47-48, 49-47, 49-48)
2018-08-31: W vs. [#19FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (12-1-0) via MD ()
2018-04-01: W vs. [#185BW] Tyson Nam (19-11-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)

Last 3 Fights: Raulian Paiva (1-2-0)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#200BW] Mark De La Rosa (11-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 2
2019-08-10: L vs. [#20FLY] Rogerio Bontorin (16-2-0) via TKO (Cut) in 2:56 of round 1
2019-02-09: L vs. [#14FLY] Kai Kara-France (21-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Raulian Paiva -175 60.92%
Elo K170 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1770.91 +178.36 69.31%
Elo Modified Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1733.53 +139.21 64.78%
Glicko-1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1687.09 +80.16 61.33%
WHR Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1595.62 +84.95 59.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zhalgas Zhumagulov 266, Raulian Paiva 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#19] Karol Rosa (12-3-0, -246) vs. [#37] Vanessa Melo (10-7-0, +197)

Last 3 Fights: Karol Rosa (3-0-0)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#32BW] Lara Fritzen Procopio (6-1-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2019-04-19: W vs. [#31BW] Gisele Moreira (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 3
2019-03-24: W vs. [#54FW] Tamires Vidal (2-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:40 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Melo (1-2-0)
2019-11-16: L vs. [#18BW] Tracy Cortez (7-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#5BW] Irene Aldana (12-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#71BW] Jan Finney (11-14-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karol Rosa -246 67.86%
Elo K170 Karol Rosa 1460.85 +213.45 72.62%
Elo Modified Karol Rosa 1417.64 +119.93 62.83%
Glicko-1 Karol Rosa 1408.84 +106.81 64.91%
WHR Karol Rosa 1386.72 +54.07 56.15%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karol Rosa 315, Vanessa Melo 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#299] Davey Grant (11-4-0, +148) vs. [*] Martin Day (9-3-0, -179)

Last 3 Fights: Davey Grant (1-2-0)
2019-11-09: W vs. [#310BW] Grigory Popov (13-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-07-22: L vs. [#162LW] Manny Bermudez (15-2-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 0:59 of round 1
2016-10-08: L vs. [#359BW] Damian Stasiak (11-7-0) via SUB in 3:56 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Martin Day (2-1-0)
2018-11-24: L vs. [#146BW] Pingyuan Liu (15-6-0) via UD ()
2018-08-04: W vs. [#260BW] Brady Huang (11-1-0) via TKO in 1:10 of round 2
2018-06-23: W vs. [#276FLY] Shojin Miki (6-6-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Martin Day -179 61.40%
Elo K170 Davey Grant 1466.69 +179.04 69.38%
Elo Modified Davey Grant 1428.04 +121.99 63.04%
Glicko-1 Davey Grant 1409.39 +96.14 63.49%
WHR Davey Grant 1371.04 +105.48 61.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Davey Grant 245, Martin Day 595
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Stored DD Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Massive [****½]
Run Date: 2020-7-9