Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN+ 20: Askren vs. Maia (10-26-2019)

21 Oct , 2019,
jcs

Welterweight (170)
[#13] Demian Maia (27-9-0, +135) vs. [#16] Ben Askren (19-1-0, -161)
Demian Maia is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Ben Askren is the All-Time #33 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demian Maia (2-1-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#21WW] Anthony Rocco Martin (16-5-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#66WW] Lyman Good (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 1
2018-05-19: L vs. [#1WW/#5DD/#6P4P] Kamaru Usman (15-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Askren (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#4WW] Jorge Masvidal (34-13-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1
2019-03-02: W vs. [#17WW] Robbie Lawler (28-14-0) via Technical Submission (Bulldog Choke) in 3:20 of round 1
2017-11-24: W vs. [#109WW] Shinya Aoki (44-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:57 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ben Askren – Win%: 59.18
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ben Askren (2077.05) [+5.49] – Win%: 50.63
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ben Askren (2060.15) [+39.18] – Win%: 54.28
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ben Askren (2091.33) [+67.66] – Win%: 62.10
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demian Maia 119, Ben Askren 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demian Maia leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#62] Laureano Staropoli (9-1-0, +123) vs. [#63] Muslim Salikhov (15-2-0, -147)

Last 3 Fights: Laureano Staropoli (3-0-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#79WW] Thiago Alves (23-14-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-11-17: W vs. [#1195WW] Hector Aldana (4-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-06-10: W vs. [#506MW] Carlos Alberto Bazan Roja (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Muslim Salikhov (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#100WW] Nordine Taleb (15-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:26 of round 1
2018-04-14: W vs. [#149WW] Ricky Rainey (13-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 2
2017-11-25: L vs. [#102WW] Alex Garcia (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Muslim Salikhov – Win%: 57.02
Elo Favorite (Standard): Muslim Salikhov (1746.38) [+198.69] – Win%: 71.26
Elo Favorite (Modified): Muslim Salikhov (1755.55) [+209.25] – Win%: 71.42
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Muslim Salikhov (1738.87) [+179.73] – Win%: 79.85
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Laureano Staropoli 168, Muslim Salikhov 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#82] Ciryl Gane (4-0-0, -306) vs. [#94] Dontale Mayes (7-2-0, +245)

Last 3 Fights: Ciryl Gane (3-0-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#146HW+] Raphael Pessoa (9-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:12 of round 1
2019-05-24: W vs. [#121HW+] Roggers Souza (9-2-0) via TKO in 4:26 of round 1
2018-09-21: W vs. [#280HW+] Adam Dyczka (8-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dontale Mayes (3-0-0)
2019-07-16: W vs. [#147HW+] Ricardo Prasel (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2018-11-17: W vs. [NA] Nkemdirim Oti (2-6-0) via SUB in 2:15 of round 3
2018-07-31: W vs. [#341HW+] Mitchell Sipe (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ciryl Gane – Win%: 72.22
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ciryl Gane (1465.81) [+3.56] – Win%: 50.41
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ciryl Gane (1622.22) [+94.49] – Win%: 60.20
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Dontale Mayes (1522.67) [+6.37] – Win%: 51.23
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ciryl Gane 77, Dontale Mayes 102
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#58] Stevie Ray (22-9-0, +257) vs. [#75] Michael Johnson (19-14-0, -326)
Michael Johnson is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stevie Ray (1-2-0)
2019-06-01: L vs. [#23LW] Leonardo Santos (17-3-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:17 of round 1
2018-10-27: W vs. [#294LW] Jessin Ayari (16-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-03-17: L vs. [#60LW] Kajan Johnson (23-13-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Johnson (2-1-0)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#7FW] Josh Emmett (15-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:14 of round 3
2018-10-27: W vs. [#129FW] Artem Lobov (14-15-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-08-25: W vs. [#26FW] Andre Fili (20-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Michael Johnson – Win%: 73.20
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michael Johnson (1753.70) [+72.48] – Win%: 58.20
Elo Favorite (Modified): Michael Johnson (1712.48) [+41.71] – Win%: 54.55
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Michael Johnson (1717.79) [+26.59] – Win%: 54.91
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stevie Ray 147, Michael Johnson 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#19] Beneil Dariush (16-4-1, -138) vs. [#139] Frank Camacho (23-7-0, +114)

Last 3 Fights: Beneil Dariush (2-1-0)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#59LW] Drew Dober (21-9-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:41 of round 2
2018-11-10: W vs. [#117LW] Thiago Moises (12-4-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-26)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#11LW] Alexander Hernandez (11-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:42 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Frank Camacho (1-2-0)
2019-06-01: W vs. [*] Nick Hein (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:56 of round 2
2018-09-08: L vs. [#32WW] Geoff Neal (12-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:23 of round 2
2018-01-27: L vs. [#59LW] Drew Dober (21-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Beneil Dariush – Win%: 55.37
Elo Favorite (Standard): Beneil Dariush (1879.37) [+389.98] – Win%: 85.59
Elo Favorite (Modified): Beneil Dariush (1863.39) [+378.75] – Win%: 84.00
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Beneil Dariush (1823.75) [+289.17] – Win%: 89.82
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Beneil Dariush 231, Frank Camacho 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Beneil Dariush leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#112] Alex White (14-5-0, +177) vs. [#288] Rafael Fiziev (6-1-0, -218)

Last 3 Fights: Alex White (1-2-0)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#283LW] Dan Moret (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-09-08: L vs. [#27LW] Jim Miller (31-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:29 of round 1
2018-01-14: L vs. [#59WW] James Krause (26-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (2-1-0)
2019-04-20: L vs. [#106LW] Magomed Mustafaev (14-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) in 1:26 of round 1
2018-12-21: W vs. [#1027LW] Nurzhan Tutkaev (5-5-0) via KO (Body Kick) in 0:51 of round 2
2017-12-23: W vs. [#321LW] Nandin-Erdene Munguntsooj (9-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:58 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Rafael Fiziev – Win%: 65.50
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alex White (1542.96) [+158.93] – Win%: 67.39
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alex White (1546.12) [+91.87] – Win%: 59.92
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alex White (1523.98) [+91.77] – Win%: 67.22
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex White 231, Rafael Fiziev 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#59] Enrique Barzola (17-4-1, +158) vs. [#69] Movsar Evloev (11-0-0, -189)

Last 3 Fights: Enrique Barzola (2-1-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#95FW] Bobby Moffett (14-5-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#37FW] Kevin Aguilar (17-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-05-19: W vs. [#223FW] Brandon Davis (10-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Movsar Evloev (3-0-0)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#310FW] Sung Woo Choi (8-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-26, 29-27)
2018-07-21: W vs. [#206BW] Rafael Dias (16-6-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:21 of round 5
2018-02-22: W vs. [#66BW] Sergey Morozov (17-4-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:47 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Movsar Evloev – Win%: 62.78
Elo Favorite (Standard): Movsar Evloev (1750.76) [+39.10] – Win%: 54.45
Elo Favorite (Modified): Movsar Evloev (1759.22) [+86.92] – Win%: 59.40
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Movsar Evloev (1763.38) [+79.71] – Win%: 64.46
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Enrique Barzola 77, Movsar Evloev 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#15] Randa Markos (9-7-1, -178) vs. [#37] Ashley Yoder (7-4-0, +148)

Last 3 Fights: Randa Markos (1-1-1)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#8SW] Claudia Gadelha (17-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#18SW] Angela Hill (10-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:24 of round 1
2018-09-22: D vs. [#12SW] Marina Rodriguez (12-0-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Ashley Yoder (2-1-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#76SW] Syuri Kondo (6-3-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-24)
2018-11-10: W vs. [#70FLY] Amanda Bobby Cooper (4-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#40SW] Mackenzie Dern (7-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Randa Markos – Win%: 61.36
Elo Favorite (Standard): Randa Markos (1395.64) [+38.58] – Win%: 54.40
Elo Favorite (Modified): Randa Markos (1427.15) [+86.39] – Win%: 59.34
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Randa Markos (1426.50) [+92.78] – Win%: 67.31
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randa Markos 112, Ashley Yoder 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Randa Markos leads 1-0
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#11] Julia Avila (7-1-0, -201) vs. [#14] Karol Rosa (12-3-0, +167)

Last 3 Fights: Julia Avila (3-0-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#21BW] Pannie Kianzad (11-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-11-16: W vs. [#108FLY] Alexa Conners (5-4-0) via TKO (Front Kick and Punches) in 4:43 of round 2
2018-08-25: W vs. [#203FLY] Ashley Deen (4-5-0) via TKO in 2:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Karol Rosa (3-0-0)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#27BW] Lara Fritzen Procopio (6-1-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2019-04-19: W vs. [#37BW] Gisele Moreira (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 3
2019-03-24: W vs. [#46FW] Tamires Vidal (2-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:40 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Julia Avila – Win%: 64.06
Elo Favorite (Standard): Karol Rosa (1460.84) [+30.71] – Win%: 53.50
Elo Favorite (Modified): Julia Avila (1503.91) [+86.29] – Win%: 59.33
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Julia Avila (1463.91) [+21.65] – Win%: 54.11
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julia Avila 112, Karol Rosa 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#45] Sergei Pavlovich (13-1-0, -232) vs. [#50] Maurice Greene (8-2-0, +190)

Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (2-1-0)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#187HW+] Marcelo Golm (6-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:06 of round 1
2018-11-24: L vs. [#7HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 1
2017-11-19: W vs. [#129HW+] Kirill Sidelnikov (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Maurice Greene (3-0-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#71HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [#66HW+] Jeff Hughes (10-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#423HW+] Michel Batista (4-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:14 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sergei Pavlovich – Win%: 66.96
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sergei Pavlovich (1719.84) [+124.00] – Win%: 63.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Sergei Pavlovich (1742.23) [+178.90] – Win%: 68.63
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Sergei Pavlovich (1730.96) [+151.33] – Win%: 75.99
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sergei Pavlovich 189, Maurice Greene 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#110] Aleksandra Albu (3-1-0) vs. [#31AW] Konklak Suphisara (3-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Aleksandra Albu (2-1-0)
2019-02-17: L vs. [#55SW] Emily Whitmire (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2017-07-29: W vs. [#61SW] Kailin Curran (6-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-04-11: W vs. [#216FLY] Izabela Badurek (7-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:34 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Konklak Suphisara (2-1-0)
2019-06-07: W vs. [#38AW] Monique Adriane (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-03: L vs. [#21AW] Suwanan Boonsorn (3-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:06 of round 1
2018-08-05: W vs. [NA] Hana Yamada (2-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 2

Elo Favorite (Standard): Konklak Suphisara (1144.06) [+12.60] – Win%: 51.44
Elo Favorite (Modified): Aleksandra Albu (1244.99) [+93.14] – Win%: 60.05
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Konklak Suphisara (1165.66) [+2.68] – Win%: 50.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aleksandra Albu 251, Konklak Suphisara 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#66] Jeff Hughes (10-2-0, -222) vs. [#146] Raphael Pessoa (9-1-0, +181)

Last 3 Fights: Jeff Hughes (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2019-09-14: NC vs. [#171HW+] Todd Duffee (9-3-0)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#50HW+] Maurice Greene (8-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-07-24: W vs. [*] Josh Appelt (15-7-0) via TKO (Punch) in 4:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Raphael Pessoa (2-1-0)
2019-08-10: L vs. [#82HW+] Ciryl Gane (4-0-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:12 of round 1
2018-09-21: W vs. [#156HW+] Brian Heden (32-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 1
2017-11-26: W vs. [*] Wagner Maia (5-2-0) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jeff Hughes – Win%: 65.95
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jeff Hughes (1491.75) [+137.33] – Win%: 65.19
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jeff Hughes (1576.81) [+155.72] – Win%: 66.41
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jeff Hughes (1534.30) [+146.62] – Win%: 76.14
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeff Hughes 42, Raphael Pessoa 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Demian Maia
Highest Stored DD Rating: Demian Maia
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Demian Maia vs. Ben Askren
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Demian Maia vs. Ben Askren
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2019-10-20