The Argument for or against Cruiserweight: Revisited (Again x2)

About a year ago, I posted the second update to my original post.

I feel the need to keep revisiting this as we get more data, because every few months I see this topic bubble up to the top of various sites and forums.

In summary, we started tracking weigh-in weights, and I wanted to see if the heavier fighters won more often than lighter fighters.  Using the same ideals as before, with an even larger data set:

• In 1,123 non-draw official pro fights where both fighters weighed in at different weights, but above 210 (our Light Heavyweight limit), 556 were won by the lighter fighter, and 567 won by the heavier fighter (50.5%).
• When you allow for mismatches and include matches in which only one fighter had to weigh above 210, the total tally increases to 1322 and the heavier fighter only won 651 (49.2%).
• For the record, across the board, the heavier fighter has won 52.6% of the time.

The results are nearly identical to before, though the heavier fighter (again) gained ground in all three statistics.  There are a few possibilities to explain this and it could be a combination of:

• Heavyweight fighters depend more on size than skill.
• Weight differences are a bigger issue for smaller fighters.
• And as for the gaining trend… the data set STILL isn’t large enough and freakshow-type matches are decreasing.

I decided to take this one step further — for all weights:

The above table proves one thing though, that weight advantages do matter, but there is a tipping point.  Too much weight can leave a fighter vulnerable.  Though, you cannot exclude the possibility of smart matchmaking.

OK, the last exercise (sans the top two differences, not enough data).  Same table, but excluding Heavyweight matches:

Interestingly enough, the 2.5-4.9lb difference has the largest success for the heavier fighter AGAIN.

Lastly, when fighters weighing 220-240lb (conceivably those who may move down or into a 220ish division), fought against fighters 250lb+ (conceivably those who would stay at a new Heavyweight), the heavier fighter prevailed 122-123– almost even, but less than 50%.

So what did we learn this time?  As a whole, weight advantage seems to matter, but when you look specifically at Heavyweights, it seems to matter less.  Even in the above statement, setting strict limits on a pseudo-Heavyweight split is nearly dead even. Then again, this particular data set is still extremely small.

In conclusion, personally, I still don’t think a Cruiserweight division is currently needed.