Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan (10-10-2026)

Posted on October 5, 2026 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#7][#6UFC] Brendan Allen (27-7-0, -140) vs. [#11][#9UFC] Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0, +115)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2026-06-06: W vs. [#20MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-10-18: W vs. [#9LHW] Reinier de Ridder (22-4-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2025-07-19: W vs. [#37MW] Marvin Vettori (19-11-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Christian Leroy Duncan (3-0-0)
2026-07-18: W vs. [#16MW] Jared Cannonier (18-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2026-03-21: W vs. [#15LHW] Roman Dolidze (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-11-08: W vs. [#84MW] Marco Tulio (14-3-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist and Punches) in 3:28 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Brendan Allen	-140		55.63%
Elo K170	Brendan Allen	2138.73	+108.13	65.08%
Elo Modified	Brendan Allen	2106.82	+78.12	61.06%
Glicko-1	Brendan Allen	2170.10	+61.36	58.74%
WHR	Brendan Allen	1990.16	+76.64	60.85%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brendan Allen 30.8, Christian Leroy Duncan 31.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 126, Christian Leroy Duncan 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Christian Leroy Duncan leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#72][#40UFC] Jai Herbert (14-6-1, +155) vs. [#92][#52UFC] Matheus Camilo (11-3-0, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Jai Herbert (2-1-0)
2026-04-18: W vs. [#134LW] Mandel Nallo (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:05 of round 1
2025-03-22: L vs. [#45LW] Chris Padilla (18-6-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#461LW] Rolando Bedoya (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Matheus Camilo (2-1-0)
2026-06-27: W vs. [#108LW] Nazim Sadykhov (11-3-1) via NC in 1:31 of round 1
2025-11-15: W vs. [#338LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-05-17: L vs. [*] Gabriel Green (12-5-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:43 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Matheus Camilo	-191		62.59%
Elo K170	Matheus Camilo	1676.29	+7.35	51.06%
Elo Modified	Jai Herbert	1718.22	+30.42	54.37%
Glicko-1	Jai Herbert	1787.84	+88.37	62.45%
WHR	Jai Herbert	1738.11	+120.74	66.71%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jai Herbert 38.4, Matheus Camilo 25.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jai Herbert 175, Matheus Camilo 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#13][#13UFC] Lupita Godinez (14-6-0, -232) vs. [#19][#18UFC] Ketlen Souza (17-6-0, +190)

Last 3 Fights: Lupita Godinez (2-1-0)
2026-04-11: L vs. [#8P4P][#9DD][#4SW] Tatiana Suarez (12-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:29 of round 2
2025-08-16: W vs. [#20SW] Jessica Andrade (26-15-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#21SW] Julia Polastri (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ketlen Souza (2-1-0)
2026-06-06: W vs. [#88SW] Ariane Carnelossi (15-5-0) via KO (Punches and Head Kick) in 1:34 of round 1
2026-02-07: W vs. [#37SW] Bruna Brasil (11-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-08-02: L vs. [#16SW] Piera Rodriguez (12-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Lupita Godinez	-232		66.96%
Elo K170	Lupita Godinez	1636.61	+76.01	60.77%
Elo Modified	Ketlen Souza	1634.95	+14.87	52.14%
Glicko-1	Ketlen Souza	1655.13	+86.15	62.15%
WHR	Ketlen Souza	1558.27	+36.20	55.19%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Lupita Godinez 33.1, Ketlen Souza 32.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lupita Godinez 182, Ketlen Souza 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
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[#4 SW] Jo Arai

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