Leland Roling of MMA-Analyst posted some strength of schedule statistics on BloodyElbow. He went two layers deep, and included the winning percentage of fighters’ opponents, as well as the opponents’ opponents.
Although his efforts were more than noteworthy, after taking a closer look, I felt the combination of the two layers was a bit subjective in nature. Furthermore, the statistics included the entire careers of all fighters involved, which I felt was overkill.
Update: Posted a Top 50 list.
Lightweights
1. 
Jason Dent beat UR. Rob Browning
Welterweights
9B. Frank Lester* beat UR. Kiel Reid
* – Added after the fact. Assigned a “B” in order to signify their place in the ranking, without “throwing off” the initial 1-16 list.
So far, the higher seed is 11-4. In one bout, both fighters were unranked.
| Friday, October 16th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Chicago 2: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2 | |||
 [#6 W125] Liz Carmouche | [#14 W125] Jena Bishop | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#15 W125] Viviane Araujo Last 5: L W W W W | Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#37 W125] Ariane Lipski da Silva Last 5: W W L W W | ||
| Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF New Years Eve Event | |||
 [#5 FW] Rajabali Shaidullaev |  [#16 FW] Kyoma Akimoto | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#7 FW] A.J. McKee Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 8/11/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#25 FW] Kleber Koike Erbst Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Saturday, November 14th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Returns to Dubai: Nemkov vs. Bilostenniy | |||
 [#6 HW] Vadim Nemkov | [#16 HW] Sergey Bilostenniy | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 5/02/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira Last 5: W W L W W | ||
| [#5 FW] | Rajabali Shaidullaev | [#49 LW] | Mikuru Asakura | |
| [#1 FW] |  Alexander Volkanovski | [#29 FW] | Ren Hiramoto | |
| [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | [#96 FW] | Tommy McMillen | |
| [#7 FW] | A.J. McKee | [#4 FW] | Movsar Evloev | |
| [#16 FW] | Kyoma Akimoto | [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria |
We posted the original last June, and you can find the link at the bottom of this post. Since then, we’ve had more bouts occur, we’ve improved the formulas, and added quite a bit of data,.
The significance of the upsets on this list is measured not by the betting odds, but by the difference in the Fightmatrix.com point standing between the two fighters, normalized by division. The list is ranked on total difference, not proportional difference, so newer results tend to take precedence, as there is a growing gap between the top notch fighters, and the bottom of the barrel.
UFC Middleweight Championship
[#1] Anderson Silva vs. [#11] Thales Leites
Light Heavyweight
[#9] Mauricio Rua vs. [#10] Chuck Liddell
Light Heavyweight
[#34] Krzysztof Soszynski vs. [#90] Brian Stann
Heavyweight
[#9] Cheick Kongo vs. [#35] Antoni Hardonk
Light Heavyweight
[#12] Luiz Cane vs. [#37] Steve Cantwell
Light Heavyweight
[#350] Eliot Marshall vs. [*] Vinny Magalhaes
Middleweight
[#30] Denis Kang vs. [#43] Xavier Foupa-Pokam
Middleweight
[#29] Jason MacDonald vs. [#62] Nate Quarry
Middleweight
[#34] David Loiseau vs. [#47] Ed Herman
Lightweight
[#59] Mark Bocek vs. [#92] David Bielkheden
Welterweight
[#28] TJ Grant vs. [#36] Ryo Chonan
Lightweight
[#53] Matt Wiman vs. [#60] Sam Stout
Ranking Notes: Dark green font represents an approximate ranking. An asterisk represents a fighter who is ranked, but too low for an approximation. These two scenarios will clear up slightly as we move forward. “NR” means the fighter is not ranked, due to inactivity, or due to a rating that is at or below the default starter rating.
Fightmatrix.com Mixed Martial Arts Rankings Archive has been updated with the rankings as of April 6, 2009.
Notable Info
Only one upset in Episode 2, and it was a minor one (#3 beat #2).
Lightweights
6. Richie Whitson beat 8. Paul Bird
7. Santino Defranco beat 9. Waylon Lowe
12. Cameron Dollar beat 15. Tom Hayden
Welterweights
3. Mark Miller beat 2. Kevin Knabjian
4. Jason Pierce beat 12. Ryan Biglar
5. Damarques Johnson beat 7. Ray Elbe
So far, the higher seed is 9-4. In one bout, both fighters were unranked.
It’s been long overdue, but we finally have a Facebook page!
Since we posted the TUF 9 rankings, I figured it’d be interesting to follow the results… just to see how off (or on) we are. There have definitely been some “bracket busters” in the Welterweight division, but the Lightweights are performing as expected.
Lightweights
4. 
Andre Winner beat 13. Gary Kelly
2. Jeff Lawson beat 14. James Bryant
10. Martin Stapleton beat NR. Dan James
3. Ross Pearson beat 11. AJ Wenn
Welterweights
8. James Wilks beat 1. Che Mills
10. Nicholas Osipczak beat 6. Tommy Maguire
11. Dean Amasinger beat 9. Alex Reid
NR. David Falkner beat NR. James Bateman
All fighters are ranked using their FightMatrix rating points as of 4/6/09. Some of the bout histories for these obscure fighters are incomplete, especially those from the UK, but we decided to use the information that we have to provide a ranking of said fighters. There is some “grouping” of closely rated fighters, so we are presenting them in tiers.
Total Points
240 – 204
The Best of the Bunch
1. Jason Dent
2. Jeff Lawson
Worth Keeping an Eye On
3. Ross Pearson
4. Andre Winner
The Next Three
5. Josh Souder
6. Richie Whitson
7. Santino Defranco
On the Outside Looking In
8. Paul Bird
9. Waylon Lowe
10. Martin Stapleton
11. AJ Wenn
12. Cameron Dollar
Just Good Enough for a Rating
13. Gary Kelly
14. James Bryant
15. Tom Hayden
The Unranked
Dan James, Rob Browning*
* – Added after the fact, not included in main point total.
