Fight Matrix

Age: It’s impact on fights (Part II)

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jason

A little disclaimer before viewing the following results.

Obviously, the fighters we actually have birthdates are, for the most part, more “well known” than the fighters who we don’t have birthdates for. So, in the following, you can’t compare to a 50% win percentage (you can’t anyway, because draws are included), you’ll have to compare to the sample average. Having said that…

Win % by Age

In the above graph, the dotted line represents the sample average. I’m very surprised at the almost impeccable trend downward, which starts all the way at the beginning when the fighters are in their teens. The teenage group boasts an astounding 79.8% win percentage.

The spike after age 39 is undoubtedly a result of the few ageless wonders that we’ve seen in the recent years of MMA, carefully picking and choosing their spots rather than retiring.

This Past Weekend: Bellator 40

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 40
April 9, 2011

First Council Casino,
Newkirk, Oklahoma, United States

Non Title Bout

Welterweight (170 lbs)
Ben Askren (8 – 0 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Nick Thompson (38 – 14 – 1). Askren remains ranked at [#21] with this victory. Askren showed true positional dominance on the ground, thoroughly flustering Thompson in all 3 rounds. Nick Thompson drops 1 spot from [#128] to [#129]. Thompson, who is on a 4 fight losing streak and has not won since February of 2009, announced his intention to retire following the bout.

Bellator Welterweight Tournament Semifinal

Welterweight (170 lbs)
Jay Hieron (21 – 4 – 0) defeated Brent Weedman (18 – 6 – 1) via unanimous decision. Weedman was the aggressor for much of the bout, but the judges felt Hieron’s boxing earned him the victory. Hieron breaks into the top ten, jumping 5 spots from [#15] to [#10]. He will face [#47] Rick Hawn in the finals of the season 4 welterweight tournament. Now Hieron is 11 spots higher than Bellator welterweight champ Ben Askren. Brent Weedman drops 2 spots from [#28] to [#30]. Prior to this loss, Weedman was on a 3 year, 10 fight win streak.

Bellator Lightweight Tournament Semifinal

Lightweight (155 lbs)
Michael Chandler (7 – 0 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Lloyd Woodard (11 – 1 – 0) Chandler used superior wrestling to control the taller Woodard throughout the fight. Chandler, who bounds 109 spots forward from [#161] to [#52], advances to the finals to face [#51] Patricky Freire. Chandler had stopped all his opponents prior to this bout. Lloyd Woodard falls 20 spots from [#46] to [#66]. Woodard suffered defeat for the first time on Saturday night, but he has much to offer and should be back in the Bellator cage soon.

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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF Super Rizin 6: Shiwasu no Owarinagoya Gekokujo Matsuri

[#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina

[#4 W105] Saori Oshima

Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#18 W105] Rena Kubota
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 7/18/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#13 W105] Ye Ji Lee
Last 5: L W L W W

Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep - 135 Impact

[#3 SW] Sukai China

[#4 SW] Jo Arai

Last Fight Date: 5/04/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 9/13/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#23 SW] Daichi Kitakata
Last 5: L L W L W

Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep Tokyo Impact 2026 6th Round

[#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama

[#10 SW] Goal Makino

Last Fight Date: 9/20/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi
Last 5: W W W L W

Last Fight Date: 9/06/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#42 SW] Toshiya Takashima
Last 5: W W W W W

Featured Fighters

[#18 W125]	Lucia Szabova	[#1 WW]	Islam Makhachev
[#18 LW]	Renato Carneiro	[#1 FW]	Alexander Volkanovski
[#13 LW]	Tom Nolan	[#26 WW]	Jacobe Smith
[#102 W125]	Tainara Lisboa	[#2 LW]	Ilia Topuria
[#1 LW]	Justin Gaethje	[#23 LHW]	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Age: It’s impact on fights (Part I)

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jason

This was spurred on by the Bloody Elbow/Fight Metric Research Contest. I wonder if using FM data makes it ineligible?

Whatever the case is, here I am with another “stat geek” article for our readers’ consumption. Some notes before I get into the bulk of it:

1,361 fighters have valid birthdates in the database (this is a relatively new data attribute for us).
4,317 pro fights have two fighters with a valid birthdate.
4,062 pro fights are used in this analysis (excluded draws and no contests) when both fighters need a valid birthdate.
18,898 pro fights are used in this analysis (excluded draws and no contests) when only one fighter needs a valid birthdate.

As you can see, not the largest sample set, but a decent amount nonetheless.

For starters, the average MMA fighter (at the time of the fight) was 10,198 days old. If you divide this by 365.2425 (don’t hate on leap years), you get a yearly result of 27.92… so roughly 27 years and 11 months.

The winner, on average, was 126 days younger. Although slim, this is pretty substantial considering the data set.

The oldest fighter in the analysis at the time of the fight? Dan Severn. He’s the oldest winner AND oldest loser.

The youngest fighter? Nam Jin Jo. Now, I’m not sure if this is legit, but he was only 5,346 days old (a little over 14 years and 7 months) when he beat Jin Woo Kim in a 2005 Spirit MC show.

The oldest combined age in a fight, by far, took place when Randy Couture beat Mark Coleman — nearly 92 years.

More to come…

This Past Weekend: Strikeforce – Diaz vs. Daley

Posted on April 11, 2011 by Jonathan

Strikeforce – Diaz vs. Daley

April 9, 2011
Valley View Casino Center

San Diego, California, United States

Strikeforce Welterweight Championship

Welterweight (170 lbs)

Nick Diaz (25 – 7 – 0) extended his winning streak to 10 in his dazzling finish over Paul Daley (27 – 10 – 2) by TKO due to punches at 4:57 of the 1^st round. Daley, who was just 3 seconds shy of being saved by the bell, protested the stoppage by “Big” John McCarthy. However, Daley looked unsteady when he was helped up onto his stool, leading one to believe that the stoppage may have been justified. Diaz and Daley rocked each other numerous times throughout the truncated tussle, but the legendary chin of Diaz allowed him to recover and prevail. Daley has never been stopped by strikes in his career prior to this loss. With this win, Diaz moved up 2 spots, eking past [#5] B.J. Penn and [#4] Jon Fitch to rest at [#3]. Diaz has more or less beaten everyone in the Strikeforce welterweight division except for unbeaten [#35] Tyron Woodley. Paul Daley was on a 4 fight win streak prior to this loss, and is 8-2 in his last 10. After suffering his first TKO loss due to strikes, he will want to come back with an emphatic victory to prove he is still a top tier welterweight. A bout with fellow loser to Nick Diaz, [#32] Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos would most likely produce fireworks on the feet, propelling the victor back into title contention. Daley drops 8 spots from [#8] to {#14].

Strikeforce Lightweight Championship

Lightweight (155 lbs)

Gilbert Melendez (19 – 2 – 0) brutalized Tatsuya Kawajiri (27 – 7 – 0) and won via TKO due to elbows at 3:14 of the 1^st round. Melendez truly made a statement by dominating fellow top ten competitor Kawajiri in such shocking fashion. Ironically it was his elbows, which are newly allowed in Strikeforce, that forced the stoppage. Melendez, like his teammate Nick Diaz, does not have a paucity of talent available for him to face. A rematch with [#4] Shinya Aoki or a bout against [#28] Justin Wilcox could prove interesting. The cross promotional dream match between Melendez and Bellator lightweight champ [#5] Eddie Alvarez would always be appealing. Melendez moves 2 spots up the ranks from [#4] to [#2], usurping [#3] Gray Maynard’s previous spot. Melendez is on a 5 fight win streak. Tatsuya Kawajiri has suffered two hard 1^st round defeats in the last year, and these have both shown sizeable chinks in his armor. Kawajiri did not impress in his Stateside debut, and should look for bouts with [#13] Jorge Masvidal or [#50] Pat Healy. Kawajiri drops 2 spots from [#9] to [#11].

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Current Top 5 Prospects by Division

Posted on April 11, 2011 by Jason

BloodyElbow recently took a close look at prospects around the sport. They (as far as I know) did not use set criteria like we do, but it is interesting to see that some fights are on both lists. Furthermore, it will be interesting to re-visit this and see how many fighters are eventually picked up by known organizations.

The following prospects fulfilled the following criteria:

Have not fought in any of the “Big 15” organizations. Please see the FAQ for more info.
Have no more than one defeat.
Have five wins or more.
Have fought in the last 450 days.

Sorted by current rating

Heavyweight+

Shamil Abdurahimov (12-1-0) [BE #2 HW]
Guram Gughenishvili (11-0-0) [BE #1 HW]
Chris Barnett (6-1-0)
Tony Johnson Jr. (5-1-0) [BE #3 HW]
Thiago Santos (8-1-0)

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MMA Rankings Updated: 4/10/2011

Posted on April 11, 2011 by Jason

UPDATE: Due to the amount of late results that came in, we did a re-post of the rankings.

Tonight: Bellator 40

Posted on April 9, 2011 by Jonathan

There was one bout that was scrapped between top British featherweight prospect [#85] Ronnie Mann (18 – 2 – 1) and [#397LW] Josh Arocho (6 – 9 – 0), due to visa issues for Mann. An interesting rankings note – [#15] Jay Hieron, one of the semi finalists in the Bellator welterweight tournament, is ranked 6 spots higher than Bellator welterweight champ [#21] Ben Askren.

Bellator Fighting Championships 40
April 9, 2011
First Council Casino,
Newkirk, Oklahoma, United States

Non Title Bout
Welterweight (170 lbs)
[#21] Ben Askren (7 – 0 – 0) vs. [#128] Nick Thompson (38 – 13 – 1)

Bellator Lightweight Tournament Semifinal
Lightweight (155 lbs)
[#46] Lloyd Woodard (11 – 0 – 0) vs. [#161] Michael Chandler (6 – 0 – 0)

Bellator Welterweight Tournament Semifinal
Welterweight (170 lbs)
[#15] Jay Hieron (20 – 4 – 0) vs. [#28] Brent Weedman (19 – 5 – 1)

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Weekend Preview: Strikeforce – Diaz vs. Daley

Posted on April 8, 2011 by Jonathan

Strikeforce – Diaz vs. Daley

April 9, 2011
Valley View Casino Center

San Diego, California, United States

Strikeforce Welterweight Championship

Welterweight (170 lbs)
[#5] Nick Diaz (24 – 7 – 0) vs. [#8] Paul Daley (27 – 9 – 2)

Nick Diaz is the top ranked welterweight outside of the UFC, and is coming into this bout on a 9 fight win streak. 5 of these wins have come via TKO, and 3 have come by way of submission. Diaz is a finisher, no question about it, but he will be standing across the cage from a brutal finisher in Paul “Semtex” Daley. Anyone who has watched this man fight knows why he is nicknamed after an explosive. 20 of Daley’s 27 wins have come via TKO, and only 8 of his 38 fights have gone the distance. Diaz has a solid striking game which is composed of mainly jabs and peppering shots from the outside, while Daley is known for his devastating power punches. With a 4 inch height advantage, Diaz will want to keep a distance on the feet, and gain strategic takedowns to work his greatly superior ground game. If this fight goes to the floor, Diaz could very likely walk away with a submission victory. If Daley coaxes Diaz into wild punching exchanges, he could possibly capitalize on this much in the way he did when he knocked out [#44] Scott Smith. However, Diaz has one of the best chins in the business. He has only been stopped once in his career by strikes, and that was to [*] Jeremy Jackson in 2002. A victory for Daley over Diaz would turn the Strikeforce welterweight division upside down.

Strikeforce Lightweight Championship

Lightweight (155 lbs)
[#4] Gilbert Melendez (18 – 2 – 0) vs. [#9] Tatsuya Kawajiri (27 – 6 – 2)

Gil Melendez is one of the best at lightweight, having only lost twice in his career since debuting in October of 2002. It has been almost one year since Melendez won a clear unanimous decision over [#3] Shinya Aoki. Melendez is on a 4 fight win streak, and has won 5 of his last 6. This is not the first time these two have faced each other. Melendez holds a decision victory over Kawajiri from back at Pride Shockwave on 12/31/2006. Since then, Kawajiri has gone 8-2 in 10 fights. Kawajiri rebounded from a submission loss to Shinya Aoki in July 2010 by defeating [#25] Josh Thomson via unanimous decision on new years eve 2010. Melendez most likely has the striking advantage, but Kawajiri could control Melendez if he gets in close and forces takedowns. Melendez is incredibly hard to hold in one place, and Kawajiri will have to bring his A game if he is to stand a chance.

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Five long-time ranked fighters who need to step it up: Revisited

Posted on April 8, 2011 by Jason

If you don’t remember the first part of this article, you can find it here.

In September 2010, we looked at non-elite fighters who had been ranked for two years, and consistently won fights, but had become stagnant.

Revisiting the Top 5

1. Nick Penner (9/1/10 Rank: #77 vs. 9/1/08 Rank: #72 | [5-0-0 2yr])

Current Rank: Inactive (*)

We must have put the hex on Mr. Penner. He did the exact opposite of what we were looking for, which is go completely inactive.

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This Past Weekend: Bellator 39

Posted on April 7, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 30
April 2, 2011
Uncasville, Connecticut, United States

Bellator Lightweight Championship

Lightweight (155 lbs)
Eddie Alvarez (22 – 2 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Pat Curran (13 – 4 – 0). Alvarez stays ranked at [#5] with this victory. Alvarez is on a 7 fight win streak, and is regarded as one of the top lightweights in the world. Pat Curran drops 7 spots from [#38] to [#45]. Although he lost, Curran proved a lot by going the distance with Alvarez. Curran, who is 4 – 1 in is last 5, hinted at a possible move down to 145 lbs after this loss.

Bellator Welterweight Tournament Semifinal

Welterweight (170 lbs)
Rick Hawn (11 – 0 – 0) defeated Lyman Good (11 – 2 – 0) by a razor thin split decision. Hawn jumps 13 spots forward from [#60] to [#47]. He will face the winner of Jay Hieron vs. Brent Weedman in the finals of the season 4 welterweight tournament. Lyman Good drops 3 spots from [#54] to [#57]. Good, who has now lost 2 of his last 3, is still a top welterweight prospect inside the Bellator cage.

Bellator Lightweight Tournament Semifinal

Light Heavyweight (155 lbs)
Patricky Freire (9 – 1 – 0) blasted Toby Imada (29 – 16 – 0) and won by TKO due to a huge flying knee and punches at 2:53 into round 1. Freire, who bounds 80 spots forward from [#132] to [#52], has to be the odds on favorite to win the lightweight tournament now. Freire is on a 5 fight win streak, stopping 4 of his last 5 opponents. Toby Imada falls 31 spots from [#42] to [#73]. Imada, who hasn’t suffered a TKO loss since 2006, will have to go back to the drawing board and come back strong. He has been in this position before, and has proven capable to return from demoralizing defeats.

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