Notable Info

• Lightweight, Welterweight, Middleweight expanded to Top 300.
• Ratings update to give special consideration to wildly varied split and majority decisions.
• Mild blocking routine implemented – see details in previous post.

Every year on the Saturday prior to Superbowl, UFC traditionally puts on one of the bigger cards of the year.  Last year’s UFC 109 was a notable exception to the usually stacked line-up of the pre-Superbowl event.  This year, Zuffa did not disappoint with UFC 126: headlined by a long-awaited middleweight title bout between champion Anderson Silva and challenger Vitor Belfort, and bolstered by a couple of high-profile light heavyweight bouts, one featuring two former champions and the other two top prospects.

Anderson Silva defends

It started out slow, as many of Anderson’s fights tend to, and ended with a flash of brutality in the first round as Silva knocked Vitor Belfort down with a front kick to the face and finished him with two quick punches on the ground.  Silva retains his UFC title, and his #1 spot on both the middleweight ranking and the Division Dominance list.   If the UFC welterweight champion and the #2 on our Division Dominance list George St. Pierre is successful in the upcoming defense against Jake Shields, a super-fight between Silva and St. Pierre seems inevitable.  If GSP falters, Anderson’s next title defense will likely come against Yushin Okami – unless Silva decided to move up to 205 lbs.

Previously unranked for inactivity, Vitor Belfort returns to the middleweight ranking at #8.  A rematch with Wanderlei Silva at the upcoming UFC in Brazil would be a great scrap.

Notable

Rising head and shoulders ahead of competition, Anderson Silva holds the records for most consecutive wins in the UFC at 13, and most consecutive title defenses (8).   He is also only 1 title win away from also holding the record for most wins in title bouts (currently  held by Randy Couture at 10).

Light-Heavyweight picture shifts

I expected the two featured light-heavyweight bouts to be fairly competitive, but this turned out not to be the case.  Jon ‘Bones’ Jones took down Ryan Bader at will, finishing him with a modified guillotine choke in the second round.  After the fight it was announced that the top contender and Jones’ training partner Rashad Evans suffered a knee injury, and Jones was offered to take Rashad’s spot in challenging Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua for the UFC title.  Jones of course accepted, and after moving up 10 spots to #5 on the rankings he will now have the chance to become #1.  Bader falls to #12; Stephan Bonnar has been rumored as his next opponent.

Though the Rich Franklin – Forrest Griffin bout was not as lopsided, Griffin used his noticeable size advantage to out-work Franklin in every aspect of the game, winning a unanimous decision.  Franklin was able to steal a round on all three scorecards due to Griffin slowing down as the fight went on – likely a side effect of his long layoff from the Octagon.  Griffin regains the three ranking spots he lost due to inactivity, and is now back at #6 LHW.  He should next face the winner of the upcoming bout between Randy Couture and Lyoto Machida. Rich Franklin, who falls to #13,  should take on the Couture-Machida loser.

Meanwhile, rumors are swirling about Thiago Silva having to withdraw from his planned bout with Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson, and Rashad Evans taking Thiago’s place.  Nothing has been made official yet in this regard.  However all the fluctuations in the division forced Evans to drop a spot to #9 on the Division Dominance list, trading places with Jake Shields.

Further down the rankings, Kyle Kingsbury rose 26 spots to enter the light-heavyweight Top 50 at #43 after making quick work of Ricardo Romero.  Kyle improves to 1-3 in the UFC and is on a three-win streak, while Romero falls to #84 with the first-round TKO loss.

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Heavyweight
[#4] Fedor Emelianenko vs. [#11] Antonio Silva

Heavyweight
[#15] Andrei Arlovski vs. [#25] Sergei Kharitonov

Heavyweight
[#62] Shane del Rosario vs. [#72] Lavar Johnson

Heavyweight
[#88] Chad Griggs vs. [#140 LHW] Gian Villante

Heavyweight
[#126] Valentijn Overeem vs.  [*] Ray Sefo

Lightweight
[#239] John Cholish vs.  [*] Marc Stevens

Welterweight
[#474 LW] John Salgado vs. [*] Igor Gracie

Welterweight
[#385] Don Carlo-Clauss vs. [#478] Sam Oropeza

Featherweight
[#144] Josh LaBerge vs. [#267] Anthony Leone

Featherweight
[#229] Jason McLean vs. [#714 LW] Kevin Roddy

In (most probably) our next release, we will be introducing a mild “blocking” routine into the ratings.

No software-based rating system is perfect and although we’ve stymied most of the undesirable qualities of an ELO-system, some still remain.  As such, we will be implementing a blocking routine which will prevent a fighter from increasing his or her rating over a fighter who has beaten them in the past 450 days, unless one of the following conditions are met, in a future match within the 450 day window:

• The winning fighter loses to a future fighter with a pre-bout rating of less than the loser of the original match.
• The losing fighter wins against a future fighter with a pre-bout rating of more than the winner of the original match.
• The winning fighter only wins a close decision or draws against a future fighter with a pre-bout rating of less than 1/2 the loser of the original match.
• The losing fighter loses a close decision or draws against a future fighter with a pre-bout rating of more than 1/2 the loser of the original match.
• Fighters are ranked in different divisions.

Our intent is to resolve the issue of a losing fighter creeping above the winner with a multitude of mediocre, yet point-scoring wins.  This is a very mild solution, and as a result, our initial test only produced 65 blocks — less than half of which will affect ranked fighters.

Although there are 5 conditions above, this still pales in comparison to the complexities of our rating system as a whole.  Nevertheless, we feel this is more than a fair start for our first attempt at releasing this into the wild.

In addition, our next update will introduce a new slant on scoring split and majority decisions.  If one judge’s score wildly varies from the others, it will have less, or more effect on the ratings, depending on the direction in which that one judge scored.  This will have very little overall effect on the ratings.

As for the expansion..

In the last few years, Lightweight, Welterweight, and Middleweight have outpaced their larger predecessors in producing more quality fighters.  As such, we will be progressively expanding these rankings in the coming weeks/months.  We will be increasing these three divisions to a Top 300 list on the next update.

UFC/FightMatrix Middleweight Championship

[#1 MW] Anderson Silva vs. [*] Vitor Belfort

Notes: Silva is also #1 Division Dominance and the #1 All-Time Middleweight.  Belfort is not ranked due to inactivity, but would likely be the #3 Middleweight if he stayed active.

Light Heavyweight

[#9] Forrest Griffin vs. [#10] Rich Franklin

Notes: A virtual tie, as Griffin’s points have slipped since the last update due to inactivity.  Griffin is the #13 All-Time Light Heavyweight, Franklin is #21 (and #3 Middleweight).

Welterweight

[#16] Jake Ellenberger vs. [#89] Carlos Eduardo Rocha

Notes: A former rookie of the year winner, Ellenberger may have a tougher challenge on his hands than the above ranking suggests, as recorded Brazilian fight history is very weak.

Light Heavyweight

[#5] Ryan Bader vs. [#15] Jon Jones

Notes: Another match-up that is likely closer than the rankings suggest, thanks to Jones’ DQ loss to Mark Hamill.  He will try to completely erase the software’s effects caused by that loss.  The winner should be looking at the Top 4 for their next opponent.

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