This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Jimmo, Nelson

Underdogs to consider:

• Sexton over Davis – Davis holds the stark hometown advantage, but seems to be too large of a favorite.
  
• Jordan over Barry – A slight disagreement between odds and ratings that makes this worthy of a small bet.
• Henderson over Evans – See above.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Dan Henderson (29-9-0, -105) vs. [#6] Rashad Evans (22-3-1, -121)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: L vs. [#2LHW] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#7LHW] Mauricio Rua (21-7-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-07-30: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (34-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#5LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-04-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#15LHW] Phil Davis (11-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Henderson 112, Rashad Evans 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rashad Evans leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#30] Shawn Jordan (14-4-0, -105) vs. [#47] Pat Barry (8-5-0, -119)

Last 3 Fights: Shawn Jordan (2-1-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#42HW+] Mike Russow (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:48 of round 2
2012-07-21: L vs. [#20HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-8-2) via UD (30-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#260HW+] Oli Thompson (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Pat Barry (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#112HW+] Shane del Rosario (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
2012-05-05: L vs. [#46HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2012-01-20: W vs. [*] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shawn Jordan 140, Pat Barry 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Shawn Jordan leads 1-0
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#5] Alexis Davis (13-5-0, -390) vs. [#3FLY/#8DD] Rosi Sexton (13-2-0, +308)
Alexis Davis is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexis Davis (2-1-0)
2013-01-05: W vs. [#10BW] Shayna Baszler (15-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2012-07-28: W vs. [#15BW] Hitomi Akano (18-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:41 of round 2
2012-03-03: L vs. [#4BW] Sarah Kaufman (16-2-0) via MD (29-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Rosi Sexton (3-0-0)
2012-06-02: W vs. [#14FLY] Aisling Daly (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-02-26: W vs. [NA] Roxanne Modafferi (15-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-28, 30-29)
2010-11-27: W vs. [#29SW] Sally Krumdiack (9-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:07 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexis Davis 161, Rosi Sexton 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#18] Jon Fitch (24-5-1) vs. [#24] Josh Burkman (26-9-0)
Jon Fitch is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Fitch (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#4WW] Demian Maia (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#28WW] Erick Silva (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-30: L vs. [#2WW/#8DD] Johny Hendricks (15-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Josh Burkman (3-0-0)
2013-03-23: W vs. [#53WW] Aaron Simpson (12-5-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:04 of round 1
2012-11-03: W vs. [#58WW] Gerald Harris (21-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-08-25: W vs. [#345WW] Jamie Yager (6-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:25 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Fitch 132, Josh Burkman 83
Previous Match-up Record: Jon Fitch leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#50] Steve Carl (19-3-0) vs. [#240] Tyson Steele (10-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Carl (3-0-0)
2012-11-03: W vs. [#188WW] Ramico Blackmon (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:11 of round 1
2012-08-11: W vs. [#242WW] Andrew Trace (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:55 of round 1
2012-07-28: W vs. [NA] Vic Hall (3-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Steele (3-0-0)
2012-11-03: W vs. [#704WW] Gregor Gracie (7-3-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:52 of round 1
2012-09-15: W vs. [#347WW] Jarod Milko (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-10-01: W vs. [*] Ben Stewart (4-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Carl 223, Tyson Steele 223
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#65WW] Lyle Beerbohm (21-2-0) vs. [#45] Jacob Volkmann (15-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Lyle Beerbohm (3-0-0)
2013-03-30: W vs. [#1020WW] Justin Larsson (5-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2013-01-12: W vs. [NA] Chris Ensley (5-24-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 2
2012-08-23: W vs. [#497MW] Kenny Ento (13-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:28 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jacob Volkmann (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#26LW] Bobby Green (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 3
2012-10-05: W vs. [*] Shane Roller (11-7-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 2:38 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#66LW] Paul Sass (13-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyle Beerbohm 76, Jacob Volkmann 132
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: NONE

Underdogs to consider:

• Mendez over Sarafian – A respectable flier on a big underdog that is comparable in ranking to the favorite.
  
• High over Silva – See above.  High has been on quite a streak as well.
• Brunson over Markes – Another case where the home fighter is getting (perhaps) a bit too much credit.
• Castro over Arantes – Arantes has a fraction of a rating point over Castro, while he is a -221 favorite.

Heavyweight (265)
[#5] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1, -300) vs. [#10] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1, +237)
Fabricio Werdum is the All-Time #9 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Fabricio Werdum (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#42HW+] Mike Russow (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:28 of round 1
2012-02-04: W vs. [#9HW+] Roy Nelson (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-06-18: L vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2-1-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#68HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:31 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#7HW+] Frank Mir (16-7-0) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#16HW+] Brendan Schaub (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fabricio Werdum 350, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 238
Previous Match-up Record: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#101LW] Leonardo Santos (11-3-0, -235) vs. [#577] William Macario (6-0-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2012-09-01: W vs. [#207LW] Mark Holst (12-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:15 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [#1040FW] Gilmar Silva Milhorance (2-10-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:47 of round 1
2011-05-21: W vs. [#364LW] Jason Ball (20-12-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: William Macario (3-0-0)
2012-06-30: W vs. [#1062LW] Paulo Silva (5-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:56 of round 1
2011-12-17: W vs. [NA] Roger Berger (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#920WW] Gabriel Monkey (4-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leonardo Santos 280, William Macario 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#21] Rafael Cavalcante (11-3-0, -203) vs. [#37] Thiago Silva (14-3-0, +167)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Cavalcante (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2012-05-19: NC vs. [#19HW+] Mike Kyle (20-9-1) via No Decision (Overturned by CSAC) in 0:33 of round 1
2011-09-10: W vs. [#122MW] Yoel Romero Palacio (5-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 2
2011-03-05: L vs. [#3LHW] Dan Henderson (29-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Silva (0-1-0, 2 NC)
2012-11-10: NC vs. [#97MW] Stanislav Nedkov (12-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:45 of round 3
2012-04-14: L vs. [#4LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-01-01: NC vs. [#31LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via NC (Overturned by NSAC) in 5:00 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Cavalcante 385, Thiago Silva 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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