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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix & Sherdog (Man vs. Machine) Rankings Compared: Heavyweight

Posted on August 5, 2013 by Jason

Sherdog, one of the most, if not THE most respected MMA web site on the Internet has produced Top 10 rankings for quite sometime.  I thought I would take a look at their latest Top 10s and compare the differences between the fights they rank and the ones we rank, including some commentary.

Heavyweight

Rank Fight Matrix Diff Sherdog
1 Cain Velasquez = Cain Velasquez
2 Junior dos Santos = Junior dos Santos
3 Daniel Cormier -1 Fabricio Werdum
4 Antonio Silva -1 Daniel Cormier
5 Fabricio Werdum +2 Antonio Silva
6 Alistair Overeem = Alistair Overeem
7 Frank Mir = Frank Mir
8 Mark Hunt Next 5 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
9 Josh Barnett = Josh Barnett
10 Stipe Miocic = Stipe Miocic
Next 5 Travis Browne
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Roy Nelson
Stefan Struve
Alexander Volkov
  Travis Browne
Gabriel Gonzaga
Mark Hunt
Roy Nelson
Stefan Struve

The two rankings are eerily similar, with the first notable difference being Fabricio Werdum.

Keep Reading

Fighter Focus: Robert Neal (#86 HW – 2-0-0, 250lb)

Posted on August 5, 2013 by Jason

[#86 HW] Robert Neal (2-0-0)

  • 28 years old, 6’0″ 250lb, Georgia, USA.
  • Both professional wins by (T)KO.
  • In only his 2nd professional fight, TKO’d [#113 HW] Mike Wessel in 13 seconds!


(The freeze-frame above shows Wessel, not Neal)

This early-career Heavyweight is looking for fights — he’s ready to put his undefeated record and Top 100 Fight Matrix ranking on the line.

If you are interesting in featuring Robert Neal on one of your contacts, please Email contact_group@fightmatrix.com and provide more details.

Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF Super Rizin 6: Shiwasu no Owarinagoya Gekokujo Matsuri
 [#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina [#4 W105] Saori Oshima
Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#18 W105] Rena Kubota
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 7/18/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#13 W105] Ye Ji Lee
Last 5: L W L W W
Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep - 135 Impact
 [#3 SW] Sukai China [#4 SW] Jo Arai
Last Fight Date: 5/04/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 9/13/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#23 SW] Daichi Kitakata
Last 5: L L W L W
Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep Tokyo Impact 2026 6th Round
 [#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama [#10 SW] Goal Makino
Last Fight Date: 9/20/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi
Last 5: W W W L W
Last Fight Date: 9/06/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#42 SW] Toshiya Takashima
Last 5: W W W W W
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Featured Fighters

[#18 W125]  Lucia Szabova [#1 WW]  Islam Makhachev
[#18 LW]  Renato Carneiro [#1 FW]  Alexander Volkanovski
[#13 LW]  Tom Nolan [#26 WW]  Jacobe Smith
[#102 W125]  Tainara Lisboa [#1 LW]  Justin Gaethje
[#2 LW]  Ilia Topuria [#8 HW]  Josh Hokit

Current MMA Rankings Updated (08-04-2013)

Posted on August 4, 2013 by Jason
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UFC on 163: Ratings vs. Odds (08-03-2013)

Posted on August 2, 2013 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

  1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
  2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
  3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
  4. Notable home advantage.
  5. System inability to project style differences.
  6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight Odds Favorite Rating Favorite I’d bet on “Gotchas”
Marunde vs. Andrade Andrade (-165 / Small) Marunde (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) PASS #4
Barroso vs. Oliveira Oliveira (-133 / Very Small) Barroso (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) PASS #1, #2
Yahya vs. Clopton Yahya (-875 / Very Large) Yahya (7.86x / Massive) Yahya #4
McCall vs. Santos McCall (-370 / Large) McCall (1.60x / Moderate) PASS #1, #4
Moraes vs. Magny Moraes (-127 / Very Small) Magny (1.33x / Small) PASS #4
Nunes vs. Gaff Nunes (-331 / Large) Gaff (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) PASS #4
Magalhaes vs. Perosh Magalhaes (-350 / Large) Magalhaes (1.28x / Small) PASS #4
Lineker vs. Maria Tome Lineker (-425 / Large) Lineker (1.78x / Moderate) Tome
Leites vs. Watson Leites (-120 / Pick ‘Em) Leites (1.13x / Very Small) PASS #4
Ferreira vs. Santos Ferreira (-400 / Large) Ferreira (1.97x / Large) PASS  
Machida vs. Davis Machida (-340 / Large) Machida (3.27x / Very Large) Machida #4
Aldo vs. Sung Jung Aldo (-600 / Very Large) Aldo (4.78x / Massive) Aldo  #4

Fight Matrix Program: UFC 163 (08-03-2013)

Posted on July 29, 2013 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD] Jose Aldo (22-1-0, -645) vs. [#16] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0, +530)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (16-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (14-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#30FW] Dustin Poirier (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:07 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#98FW] Leonard Garcia (16-11-1) via Submission (Twister) in 4:59 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 182, Chan Sung Jung 445
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0, -340) vs. [#15] Phil Davis (11-1-0, +306)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#4LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#9LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-27: W vs. [#32LHW] Vinny Magalhaes (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:29 of round 2
2012-08-04: NC vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via NC (Accidental Eye Poke) in 1:28 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 161, Phil Davis 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lyoto Machida leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#265] Cezar Ferreira (5-2-0, -412) vs. [#800WW] Thiago Santos (8-1-0, +328)

Last 3 Fights: Cezar Ferreira (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#436WW] Sergio Moraes (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-08-20: L vs. [#38MW] Elvis Mutapcic (13-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:25 of round 1
2011-04-16: W vs. [*] Chaun Sims (5-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (2-1-0)
2012-07-27: W vs. [NA] Denis Figueira da Silva (1-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-04-28: L vs. [#399MW] Vicente Luque (6-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#1237WW] Junior Vidal (3-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cezar Ferreira 406, Thiago Santos 372
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-28-2013)

Posted on July 28, 2013 by Jason

UFC on FOX 8: Ratings vs. Odds (07-27-2013)

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

  1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
  2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
  3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
  4. Notable home advantage.
  5. System inability to project style differences.
  6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight Odds Favorite Rating Favorite I’d bet on “Gotchas”
Albert vs. Meza Albert (-230 / Moderate) Meza (2.30x / Large) PASS #1
Riley vs. Salas Salas (-220 / Moderate) Salas (3.44x / Very Large) PASS #2
Herman vs. Smith Herman (-235 / Moderate) Herman (2.04x / Large) Herman
Kedzie vs. de Randamie de Randamie (-108 / Pick ‘Em) de Randamie (1.45x / Moderate) PASS #1
Edwards vs. Cruickshank Cruickshank (-125 / Very Small) Edwards (1.77x / Moderate) Edwards
Guillard vs. Danzig Guillard (-115 / Pick ‘Em) Guillard (1.21x / Very Small) PASS
Castillo vs. Means Castillo (-205 / Moderate) Castillo (1.26x / Small) Means
Masvidal vs. Chiesa Masvidal (-270 / Moderate) Masvidal (2.43x / Large) PASS #3 
Carmouche vs. Andrade Carmouche (-525 / Very Large) Carmouche (1.15x / Very Small) PASS #3, #4
Lawler vs. Voelker Lawler (-260 / Moderate) Lawler (5.85x / Massive) Lawler
MacDonald vs. Ellenberger MacDonald (-220 / Moderate) Ellenberger (1.44x / Small) Ellenberger
Johnson vs. Moraga Johnson (-450 / Large) Johnson (2.41x / Large) PASS

Recommended YouTube Viewing: “In the Car – UFC on Fox 8 Main Card Breakdown”

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Jason

One of our viewers, Bryan Stone has been using our rankings to preview upcoming UFC events. Check out his video below and give him some thumbs up!

Fight Matrix Program: UFC 163 (07-27-2013)

Posted on July 24, 2013 by Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#9DD] Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1, -438) vs. [#5] John Moraga (13-1-0, +389)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#6FLY] John Dodson (14-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2FLY/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (18-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#8FLY] Ian McCall (11-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: John Moraga (3-0-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#26FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:11 of round 3
2012-08-04: W vs. [#72FLY] Ulysses Gomez (9-4-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#763BW] Jose Carbajal (5-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 182, John Moraga 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demetrious Johnson leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#3] Jake Ellenberger (29-6-0, +206) vs. [#10] Rory MacDonald (14-1-0, -225)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#20WW] Nate Marquardt (32-12-2) via KO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 1
2012-10-05: W vs. [#34WW] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#6WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#23WW] B.J. Penn (16-9-2) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#89WW] Che Mills (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#13WW] Mike Pyle (25-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 133, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#11] Robbie Lawler (20-9-0, -265) vs. [#152] Bobby Voelker (24-9-0, +246)

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#17WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2012-07-14: L vs. [#25MW] Lorenz Larkin (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#45WW] Adlan Amagov (12-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Voelker (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [#46WW] Patrick Cote (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:16 of round 2
2010-10-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:58 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 154, Bobby Voelker 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-23-2013)

Posted on July 23, 2013 by Jason

Notable Info

  • This is an intermediate update for testing purposes.

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