Fight Matrix Program: UFC Fight Night 86 – Rothwell vs. dos Santos (04-10-2016)
Heavyweight (265)
[#7] Junior dos Santos (17-4-0, -132) vs. [#8] Ben Rothwell (36-9-0, +109)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #23 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (1-2-0)
2015-12-19: L vs. [#4HW+] Alistair Overeem (40-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 2
2014-12-13: W vs. [#3HW+] Stipe Miocic (14-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-10-19: L vs. [#2HW+] Cain Velasquez (13-2-0) via TKO (Slam and Punch) in 3:09 of round 5
Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (3-0-0)
2016-01-30: W vs. [#13HW+] Josh Barnett (34-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:48 of round 2
2015-06-06: W vs. [#26HW+] Matt Mitrione (9-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:54 of round 1
2014-09-05: W vs. [#4HW+] Alistair Overeem (40-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 113, Ben Rothwell 71
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Junior dos Santos leads 5-3
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Heavyweight (265)
[#21] Derrick Lewis (14-4-0, -142) vs. [#30] Gabriel Gonzaga (17-10-0, +119)
Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2016-02-06: W vs. [#37HW+] Damian Grabowski (20-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:17 of round 1
2015-10-03: W vs. [#44HW+] Viktor Pesta (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:15 of round 3
2015-06-06: L vs. [#35HW+] Shawn Jordan (18-7-0) via TKO (Hook Kick and Punches) in 0:48 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Gonzaga (1-2-0)
2015-12-11: W vs. [#49HW+] Konstantin Erokhin (9-3-0) via UD (30-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2015-04-11: L vs. [#22HW+] Mirko Filipovic (31-11-2) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:30 of round 3
2014-12-13: L vs. [#26HW+] Matt Mitrione (9-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:59 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 64, Gabriel Gonzaga 121
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gabriel Gonzaga leads 1-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#81] Francis Ngannou (6-1-0, -130) vs. [#117] Curtis Blaydes (5-0-0, +108)
Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (3-0-0)
2015-12-19: W vs. [#254HW+] Luis Henrique Barbosa de (8-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:53 of round 2
2015-05-28: W vs. [#179HW+] William Baldutti (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 2
2014-09-20: W vs. [#252HW+] Luc Ngeleka (4-1-0) via Submission in ? of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (3-0-0)
2016-02-19: W vs. [#270HW+] Luis Cortez (3-2-0) via in of round 3
2015-04-10: W vs. [#329HW+] Allen Crowder (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 2
2014-11-15: W vs. [NA] Brad Faylor (5-4-0) via TKO in 0:45 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 113, Curtis Blaydes 51
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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| [#18 LW] |  Renato Carneiro | [#1 FW] |  Alexander Volkanovski | |
| [#13 LW] | Tom Nolan | [#26 WW] |  Jacobe Smith | |
| [#102 W125] | Tainara Lisboa | [#1 LW] | Justin Gaethje | |
| [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#8 HW] | Josh Hokit |
Junior dos Santos experiencing sharpest decline in UFC’s heavyweight division
Junior dos Santos returns to action this weekend in the main event of UFC Fight Night 86 against the surprisingly surging Ben Rothwell. After beginning his career with a 15-1 record and a UFC title, Dos Santos has lost three of his last five. Obviously the losses have hurt his ranking. However, the degree of his decline is staggering.
The following chart shows Dos Santos’ rankings points from the Quarterly Generated Historical Rankings for every quarter since his peak ranking from Oct. 1, 2012.
As you can see, even though he currently sits at No. 7 in the heavyweight division, his decline in terms of ranking points is drastic. How does this decline compare to other UFC fighters in the division?
To measure Rankings Momentum, that is decline or improvement, let’s first chart quarterly rankings points from Oct. 1, 2012 to Jan. 1, 2016 for all 16 fighters currently listed in the UFC’s heavyweight rankings, then perform a linear regression. This process will find the best fitting straight line also known as a regression line (illustrated above in orange).
Since the slope of this regression line will represent the rate of change in ranking points as time changes, fighters with positive numbers will be seen as improving while fighters with negative numbers will be on the decline. As you can see, Dos Santos comes in dead last in terms of Rankings Momentum among the 16 fighters currently in the UFC rankings.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (04-03-2016)
Notable Info
- An additional block clearing exception has been added to the ranking routine, which allows blocks to be cleared by blocked fighters who have ascended considerably (>= 2.0x) beyond their pre-block rating. The clearing of said block(s) can be reversed if fighters descend below this mark before expiration.
Venator FC’s Rousimar Palhares holds highest ranking outside of UFC and Bellator
Earlier this week, news broke that Rousimar Palhares had signed with Venator FC. Per the announcement, he will make his promotional debut on May 21. Lost in the ostentatiousness of Venator president Frank Merenda is a reminder that one of the world’s best welterweights is practically banished from the highest levels of the sport due to his inability or refusal to release submissions in a timely manner.
In this day and age, it is rare for a fighter as accomplished as Palhares to remain outside the UFC or Bellator. In fact, only one other fighter not signed to the big two, One bantamweight champion Bibiano Fernandes, currently ranks as high. The following table shows the highest ranked fighters per weight outside the UFC and Bellator.
| Division | Rank | Fighter | Promotion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heavyweight | 15 | Vitaly Minakov | EFN |
| Light Heavyweight | 12 | Dave Branch | WSOF |
| Middleweight | 13 | Mamed Khalidov | KSW |
| Welterweight | 5 | Rousimar Palhares | Venator |
| Lightweight | 8 | Justin Gaethje | WSOF |
| Featherweight | 18 | Ivan Buchinger | M-1 |
| Bantamweight | 5 | Bibiano Fernandes | One |
| Flyweight | 12 | Tim Elliott | Titan FC |
Interestingly enough, Palhares’ #5 ranking ties him with the highest ranked fighters in Bellator. Currently Phil Davis, Will Brooks and Daniel Straus are all also ranked #5 in their respective divisions.
Unlike someone like Wanderlei Silva who is currently serving an athletic commission suspension, Palhares finds himself suspended while he seems to be entering his prime. On top of that, welterweight is one of the few divisions with a relatively deep talent pool outside the UFC with fighters such as Douglas Lima, Ben Askren and Ben Henderson. Considering the unavailability of high level competition, his ranking will likely decline.
Of course, if you believe the accusations against Palhares, he does not really have anyone to blame other than himself.
Richard Mann currently runs the data-driven MMA blog StrikeScoreMMA.com
A note about Conor McGregor’s Featherweight Ranking
If you don’t know by now, McGregor is now ranked #2 in the current Featherweight rankings.
This is mainly due to the fact, that our rankings are division-adjusted and not division-specific.
Diaz/McGregor taking place at Welterweight is considered but ultimately, the outcome of the fight takes precedence over which division it took place in.
Fight Matrix Program: UFC Fight Night 85 – Hunt vs. Mir (03-20-2016)
Heavyweight (265)
[#8] Mark Hunt (11-10-1, -170) vs. [#10] Frank Mir (18-10-0, +143)
Mark Hunt is the All-Time #20 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Frank Mir is the All-Time #12 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Mark Hunt (1-2-0)
2015-11-14: W vs. [#12HW+] Antonio Silva (19-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2015-05-10: L vs. [#5HW+] Stipe Miocic (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:47 of round 5
2014-11-15: L vs. [#1HW+/#6DD/#5P4P] Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:27 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Frank Mir (2-1-0)
2015-09-05: L vs. [#6HW+] Andrei Arlovski (25-11-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-07-15: W vs. [#39HW+] Todd Duffee (9-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:13 of round 1
2015-02-22: W vs. [#12HW+] Antonio Silva (19-8-1) via KO (Elbows) in 1:40 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mark Hunt 126, Frank Mir 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 4 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#11] Hector Lombard (34-4-1, +112) vs. [#13] Neil Magny (17-4-0, -136)
Last 3 Fights: Hector Lombard (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2015-01-03: NC vs. [#33LW] Joshua Burkman (28-12-0)
2014-03-15: W vs. [#17WW] Jake Shields (31-8-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-10-19: W vs. [#16MW] Nate Marquardt (34-15-2) via KO (Punches) in 1:48 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (2-1-0)
2015-11-21: W vs. [#14WW] Kelvin Gastelum (11-2-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2015-08-23: W vs. [#43WW] Erick Silva (18-7-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2015-08-01: L vs. [#8WW] Demian Maia (22-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:52 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Hector Lombard 441, Neil Magny 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#49] Johnny Case (22-4-0, -112) vs. [#110] Jake Matthews (9-1-0, -111)
Last 3 Fights: Johnny Case (3-0-0)
2015-11-07: W vs. [#136LW] Yan Cabral (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-06-13: W vs. [#205WW] Francisco Trevino (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2015-01-18: W vs. [*] Frankie Perez (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Jake Matthews (2-1-0)
2015-11-14: W vs. [#190LW] Akbarh Arreola (23-10-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2015-05-10: L vs. [#43LW] James Vick (8-0-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:53 of round 1
2014-11-07: W vs. [*] Vagner Rocha (11-4-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:52 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Case 133, Jake Matthews 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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