A packed arena makes the UFC look like a money machine. For a few stars, it is. Yet how much do UFC fighters make is hard to answer because contracts are private, commissions disclose only part of the purse, and headline figures ignore expenses. After eight years freelancing around sports, I’ve learned to distrust neat numbers attached to messy businesses.
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays (2026/#22)
Still trying to get out of this hole…
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF Super Rizin 6: Shiwasu no Owarinagoya Gekokujo Matsuri | |||
 [#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina |  [#4 W105] Saori Oshima | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#18 W105] Rena Kubota Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 7/18/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#13 W105] Ye Ji Lee Last 5: L W L W W | ||
| Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep - 135 Impact | |||
| [#3 SW] Sukai China | [#4 SW] Jo Arai | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 5/04/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 9/13/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#23 SW] Daichi Kitakata Last 5: L L W L W | ||
| Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep Tokyo Impact 2026 6th Round | |||
| [#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama | [#10 SW] Goal Makino | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/20/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi Last 5: W W W L W | Last Fight Date: 9/06/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#42 SW] Toshiya Takashima Last 5: W W W W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#18 W125] |  Lucia Szabova | [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | |
| [#18 LW] |  Renato Carneiro | [#1 FW] |  Alexander Volkanovski | |
| [#13 LW] | Tom Nolan | [#26 WW] |  Jacobe Smith | |
| [#102 W125] | Tainara Lisboa | [#1 LW] | Justin Gaethje | |
| [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#8 HW] | Josh Hokit |
Inactivity – Does Age Matter?
Recently, I thought about the effects of inactivity and wondered if age is a compounding factor. Does an older fighter suffer more from inactivity than a younger fighter?
Below, are the statistics for win % by the amount of inactivity prior to a fight.
Once we get past the slight improvement seen in the 91-180d segment, it is a pretty gradual decline in win %.
Let’s look at some age-specific data. The age ranges themselves were driven by my desire to split the fight data (by count) as evenly as possible.
It seems that all age groups benefit from staying active, especially the “Under 23” group. They see a win percentage improvement at inactivity periods of slightly beyond one year! I would not take the large dip at the higher inactivity periods for the “Under 23” group very seriously. The data is thin — how many fighters will be in this age group and have that many years of inactivity since their last fight? Not many.
All in all, the age groups track pretty similarly, but the older groups seem to handle extended inactivity a little better than the younger groups.
Interesting. Perhaps maturity plays a role here? I would’ve expected the opposite…
Taking the sport as a whole, it is easy to say that staying active matters, but how much impact do other factors have, like matchmaking? Is a fighter returning from 4 years of inactivity more likely to have a favorable match-up or a terrible one? Does this impact fighters of different ages in a similar manner?
Note: The data that drives the line charts is a subset of the data used for the win percentages in the first image as we do not have birth dates for all fighters. The win rate for fighters with birth dates is much higher than those without. Hardly anyone records the birth date of a 0-2 fighter.
I welcome discussion in the comments section…
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The Ability of International Tournaments to Bring Strangers Together
Tournaments are events that unite millions of people by their common emotions. Fans leave their work and spend days watching a series of matches. The atmosphere that emerges is impossible to describe with words; this feeling is just something to experience personally. Tune in to one of the most expected tournaments and feel the spirit of unity among fans.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov (07-25-2026)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2][#2UFC] Magomed Ankalaev (21-2-1, -534) vs. [#11][#10UFC] Bogdan Guskov (18-3-1, +389)
Magomed Ankalaev is the All-Time #19 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (2-1-0)
2025-10-04: L vs. [#1LHW] Alex Pereira (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:20 of round 1
2025-03-08: W vs. [#1LHW] Alex Pereira (13-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#34LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Bogdan Guskov (2-0-1)
2025-12-06: D vs. [#9LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-11-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2025-07-26: W vs. [#24LHW] Nikita Krylov (31-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2025-01-18: W vs. [#65LHW] Billy Elekana (10-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:33 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Magomed Ankalaev | -534 | 80.46% | |
| Elo K170 | Magomed Ankalaev | 2209.49 | +335.13 | 87.31% |
| Elo Modified | Magomed Ankalaev | 2195.27 | +286.65 | 83.89% |
| Glicko-1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 2293.96 | +304.82 | 85.25% |
| WHR | Magomed Ankalaev | 1995.69 | +128.49 | 67.69% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Magomed Ankalaev 34.1, Bogdan Guskov 33.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Magomed Ankalaev 294, Bogdan Guskov 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Magomed Ankalaev leads 2-1
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Flyweight (125)
[#10][#10UFC] Steve Erceg (14-4-0, -122) vs. [*] Ramazonbek Temirov (19-3-0, +100)
Steve Erceg is the All-Time #50 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (2-1-0)
2026-05-02: W vs. [#14FLY] Tim Elliott (21-14-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-08-09: W vs. [#65FLY] Ode Osbourne (13-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: L vs. [#7FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-10-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Ramazonbek Temirov (3-0-0)
2025-03-01: W vs. [#24FLY] Charles Johnson (19-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-12: W vs. [*] C.J. Vergara (12-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:50 of round 1
2023-09-24: W vs. [#224FLY] Takaki Soya (13-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Steve Erceg | -122 | 52.35% | |
| Elo K170 | Steve Erceg | 1819.41 | +23.69 | 53.40% |
| Elo Modified | Ramazonbek Temirov | 1803.60 | +8.34 | 51.20% |
| Glicko-1 | Ramazonbek Temirov | 1857.01 | +24.71 | 53.55% |
| WHR | Ramazonbek Temirov | 1696.92 | +4.01 | 50.58% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Steve Erceg 31.0, Ramazonbek Temirov 29.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Erceg 84, Ramazonbek Temirov 511
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#117][#57UFC] Islam Dulatov (12-1-0, -734) vs. [*] Wellington Turman (18-8-0, +519)
Last 3 Fights: Islam Dulatov (3-0-0)
2025-07-19: W vs. [#459WW] Adam Fugitt (10-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 1
2024-10-08: W vs. [#339MW] Vanilton Antunes (16-9-0) via KO (Elbow) in 2:44 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#735MW] Ioannis Palaiologos (20-15-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body) in 4:59 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Wellington Turman (0-3-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#217MW] Jared Gooden (23-12-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:11 of round 2
2023-06-24: L vs. [#35WW] Randy Brown (20-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#93MW] Andre Petroski (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Islam Dulatov | -734 | 84.48% | |
| Elo K170 | Islam Dulatov | 1667.86 | +228.68 | 78.86% |
| Elo Modified | Islam Dulatov | 1650.34 | +187.98 | 74.69% |
| Glicko-1 | Islam Dulatov | 1745.79 | +291.68 | 84.27% |
| WHR | Islam Dulatov | 1592.21 | +239.28 | 79.86% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Islam Dulatov 28.0, Wellington Turman 30.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Islam Dulatov 371, Wellington Turman 966
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
“It’s not a joke” – Anthony Joshua believes Ilia Topuria got too caught up in the fame before the Justin Gaethje Fight
Anthony Joshua references Ilia Topuria’s shocking defeat to Justin Gaethje on the UFC White House card when discussing his own mindset in the build-up to his highly anticipated return.
The UFC Freedom event held at the White House in Washington, DC, was headlined by a lightweight title clash between two all-time greats in mixed martial arts (MMA), Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje.
Many believed Topuria would be too much for Gaethje, given that he was undefeated at the time and had knocked out huge names such as Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira.
Gaethje was coming into the fight as the much older man at 37 years old, and he had also suffered losses to the likes of Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira.
Why a Test Match and a Championship Fight Have More in Common Than Anyone in Either Sport Will Admit
Nobody who follows MMA seriously is going to admit that cricket has anything to teach them. The sports exist on opposite ends of some invisible spectrum of what counts as properly athletic, and the fans of each tend to view the other with a mixture of confusion and mild contempt. But spend five days watching a Test match at a critical point in the series and then try to tell me the psychological architecture is different to what happens in a championship fight. It is not. The surfaces are different. The clothing is different. The cricket betting markets look nothing like the MMA ones. Underneath all of that, both sports are doing the same thing to the people competing in them, and the people who bet on them are reading the same signals, whether they know it or not.