Fight Matrix

The Ultimate Fighter 17: Episode 2 Recap

Posted on January 30, 2013 by Oleg

In Episode 2, the first team-vs-team bout took place and Team Jones took their first casualty as Gilbert Smith was knocked out in the second round, courtesy of a flying knee from Luke Barnatt.

Interestingly, a number of Team Jones voiced a vote of no confidences in their teammate prior to the fight, and even asked the coaches to change the matchup as they felt Gilbert’s conditioning was not up to par. Coach Jones stuck by his pick, and though Smith lost it turned out his conditioning had little to do with it.

Team Sonnen 1, Team Jones 0.

Here’s who remains:
Keep Reading

MMA Rankings Updated: 01-27-2013

Posted on January 27, 2013 by Jason

Writer's Game PR, LLC - Public Relations Agency

Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Saturday, July 18th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Austin: Van Steenis vs. Eblen 2

[#6 MW] Costello Van Steenis

[#12 MW] Johnny Eblen

Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#16 MW] Fabian Edwards
Last 5: L W W W W

Last Fight Date: 3/28/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#50 MW] Bryan Battle
Last 5: W W W L W

Saturday, June 27th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev

[#7 W125] Liz Carmouche

[#13 W125] Viviane Araujo

Last Fight Date: 8/15/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#16 W125] Jena Bishop
Last 5: W L W W W

Last Fight Date: 4/11/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#60 W125] Shanna Young
Last 5: W L W L W

Sunday, May 31st 2026: Shooto Professional Shooto 2026 Vol. 4

[#11 SW] Koyuru Tanoue

[#12 SW] Kazusa Kurobe

Last Fight Date: 11/16/2025 [Shooto]
Last Opponent: [#243 FLW] Jo Arai
Last 5: W W W W L

Last Fight Date: 1/18/2026 [Shooto]
Last Opponent: [#38 SW] Ken Asahina
Last 5: W W W W W

Featured Fighters

[#204 LW]	Rustambek Nurzhanov	[#2 MW]	Khamzat Chimaev
[#1 MW]	Sean Strickland	[#861 LW]	Daniel Holt
[#13 WW]	Yaroslav Amosov	[#1 LW]	Ilia Topuria
[#1 WW]	Islam Makhachev	[#1 LHW]	Alex Pereira
[#1 FLW]	Joshua Van	[#4 FLW]	Tatsuro Taira

UFC on FOX 6 / Odds vs. Ratings (01-26-2012)

Posted on January 24, 2013 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Mitchell vs. Thoresen	Thoresen (-235 / Moderate)	Thoresen (1.08x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#2
Natal vs. Spencer	Natal (-250 / Moderate)	Natal (1.51x / Moderate)	PASS
Krauss vs. Stumpf	Krauss (-245 / Moderate)	Krauss (1.60x / Moderate)	PASS
Russow vs. Jordan	Russow (-187 / Moderate)	Russow (2.28x / Large)	Russow
Bader vs. Matyushenko	Bader (-523 / Very Large)	Bader (3.47x / Very Large)	PASS
Hioki vs. Guida	Guida (-244 / Moderate)	Guida (1.44x / Small)	PASS	#1
Grant vs. Wiman	Grant (-120 / Pick ‘Em)	Grant (1.17x / Very Small)	PASS
Koch vs. Lamas	Koch (-153 / Small)	Lamas (1.87x / Large)	Lamas	#2
Cerrone vs. Pettis	Pettis (-120 / Pick ‘Em)	Cerrone (1.17x / Very Small)	Cerrone
Jackson vs. Teixeira	Teixeira (-320 / Large)	Jackson (2.37x / Large)	PASS	#3
Johnson vs. Dodson	Johnson (-225 / Moderate)	Johnson (2.50x / Large)	Johnson

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. I really want to call Jackson and Mitchell good bets, but I just can’t justify doing so. If you really feel ballsy, then drop a couple bucks on these guys. They are borderline picks.

Favorites to consider: Johnson, Russow. These fighters are the betting favorites, but the rating difference suggest that they are not large enough favorites by odds.

Underdogs to consider

Cerrone over Pettis. Pettis is the betting favorite, while Cerrone is the ratings favorite. Cerrone is worth a small bet.
Lamas over Koch. The inactivity of Koch is a gotcha, but if I’m betting, it’s on Lamas.

The Ultimate Fighter 17: Episode 1 Recap

Posted on January 23, 2013 by Oleg

Here we go again, with another season of the seemingly endless Ultimate Fighter series. This one is featuring fourteen middleweights, and coached by the reigning UFC lightheavyweight champion Jon Jones and his next challenger Chael Sonnen. As has been the case in most recent seasons, the show starts out with 28 fighters facing off in the first episode, with the winners moving into the ‘TUF’ house and the losers going home.

Some notable facts, thus far:

Sweden’s Tor ‘The Hammer’ Troeng is the only Top 50 ranked fighter on the season, head and shoulders above the remaining pool.
Only fourteen fighters are in the house instead of the usual sixteen; two of the first-round losers will be brought back in ‘wildcard’ spots.
Most of the preliminary matchups were won by the higher ranked fighter (11/14)
There is a much more even distribution of ranked fighters among the two teams than in Season 16 (which was ultimately won by the unranked Colton Smith)

After the fights are over, coaches pick their teams, and here’s how they stack up:

Keep Reading

FightMatrix Program: UFC on FOX 6 (01-26-2012)

Posted on January 22, 2013 by Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#8DD] Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1) vs. [#5] John Dodson (14-5-0)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #19 ranked Flyweight fighter.
John Dodson is the All-Time #20 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (2-0-1)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#3FLY] Joseph Benavidez (16-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#6FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-03-03: D vs. [#6FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: John Dodson (3-0-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#15FLY] Jussier da Silva (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:35 of round 2
2012-05-05: W vs. [#12FLY] Tim Elliott (9-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#47BW] T.J. Dillashaw (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 126, John Dodson 113
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Quinton Jackson (32-10-0) vs. [#20] Glover Teixeira (18-2-0)
Quinton Jackson is the All-Time #2 ranked Light Heavyweight and #12 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Quinton Jackson (1-2-0)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-09-24: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:14 of round 4
2011-05-28: W vs. [#19LHW] Matt Hamill (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#92LHW] Fabio Maldonado (18-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [#74LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1
2011-11-27: W vs. [#123HW+] Ricco Rodriguez (49-19-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Quinton Jackson 335, Glover Teixeira 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#8] Donald Cerrone (19-4-0) vs. [#13] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (2-1-0)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#31LW] Melvin Guillard (30-13-2) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 1:16 of round 1
2012-05-15: W vs. [#65LW] Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-12-30: L vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (2-1-0)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#21LW] Joe Lauzon (22-8-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#65LW] Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-06-04: L vs. [#16LW] Clay Guida (29-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 168, Anthony Pettis 335
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Pettis leads 3-2
.
Keep Reading

MMA Rankings Updated: 1/20/2013

Posted on January 20, 2013 by Jason

Spinanga

UPDATED – UFC on FX 7 / Odds vs. Ratings (01-19-2013)

Posted on January 18, 2013 by Jason

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Trinaldo vs. Keith	Trinaldo (-401 / Large)	Trinaldo (2.93x / Very Large)	Trinaldo
Prado vs. Alcantara	Prado (-249 / Moderate)	Alcantara (1.92x / Large)	Alcantara	#1, #3
Alcantara vs. Nobre	Alcantara (-440 / Large)	Alcantara (2.95x / Very Large)	PASS	#1
Barboza vs. Martins	Barboza (-307 / Large)	Barboza (1.71x / Moderate)	PASS	#3
Nunes vs. Lentz	Nunes (-169 / Small)	Nunes (1.63x / Moderate)	Nunes
Markes vs. Craig	Markes (-308 / Large)	Craig (1.14x / Very Small)	Craig	#3, #4
Castro vs. Vieira	Vieira (-206 / Moderate)	Vieira (3.04x / Very Large)	Vieira
Tavares vs. Nurmagomedov	Nurmagomedov (-185 / Moderate)	Nurmagomedov (1.38x / Small)	PASS	#4
Gonzaga vs. Rothwell	Gonzaga (-117 / Pick ‘Em)	Rothwell (1.14x / Very Small)	PASS
Dollaway vs. Sarafian	Sarafian (-177 / Small)	Dollaway (3.22x / Very Large)	Dollaway
Belfort vs. Bisping	Belfort (-113 / Pick ‘Em)	Belfort (1.18x / Very Small)	PASS

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

There are three favorites worth backing: Trinaldo, Nunes, and Vieira.

This leaves THREE underdogs worth considering:

All three underdogs, Dollaway, I. Alcantara, and Craig are similar in that the oddsmakers are clearly looking past the ledgers, of which Brazilian ones are sketchy to begin with. Their opponents are favored for stylistic and skill purposes, so tread lightly.

FightMatrix Program: UFC on FX 7: 1/19/2013

Posted on January 16, 2013 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#5] Vitor Belfort (21-10-0) vs. [#8] Michael Bisping (23-4-0)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #18 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-01-14: W vs. [#13LHW] Anthony Johnson (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#177WW] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#17MW] Brian Stann (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#133MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via TKO (Knees to the Body and Punches) in 3:34 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 119, Michael Bisping 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Vitor Belfort leads 2-1
.

Middleweight (185)
[#48] C.B. Dollaway (12-4-0) vs. [*] Daniel Sarafian (7-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: C.B. Dollaway (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#133MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-26)
2011-08-14: L vs. [#124MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 2
2011-03-03: L vs. [#13MW] Mark Munoz (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Sarafian (3-0-0)
2011-07-05: W vs. [#827MW] Ricardo Silva (11-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 1
2011-02-26: W vs. [NA] Gilklei Antonio Silva (0-1-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:44 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [#252MW] Mauricio Alonso (9-4-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: C.B. Dollaway 238, Daniel Sarafian 564
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#16] Ben Rothwell (32-8-0) vs. [#20] Gabriel Gonzaga (13-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#26HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2011-09-24: L vs. [#12HW+] Mark Hunt (8-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)
2010-06-12: W vs. [#34LHW] Gilbert Yvel (38-16-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Gonzaga (2-1-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#70HW+] Ednaldo Oliveira (13-1-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Parker Porter (5-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:50 of round 3
2010-10-23: L vs. [#26HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 273, Gabriel Gonzaga 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 1-0
.
Keep Reading

casino utan svensk licens

The Imperfect Science of MMA Fight Data

Posted on January 14, 2013 by Jason

A boring Saturday morning led me into one of the lesser known MMA fight databases on the Internet: http://www.valetudo.ru

Although their overall accuracy and capacity is far less than that of Sherdog’s Fight Finder, they house quite a bit of eastern European and Russian fight results that are valid. I presume that Sherdog visits their site and pulls Russian results from them, months, and sometimes even years later.

Some preliminary data retrieval brought to a light a potential prospect that seemingly no one has stumbled upon — as far as I know. It also presented a common problem and difficulty with MMA data collection.

Case in point, a fighter named Kairat Ahmietov, or is it Kayrat Akhmetov, or maybe it’s Kairat Ahmetov? Cyrillic to English conversion, typos, and misspellings aside, this type of identity mix-up is not uncommon, especially when dealing with non-Americans.

However, what do you do in this case?

Kairat Ahmietov @ Sherdog (3 wins, 0 losses)

Kairat Ahmetov @ Valetudo (2 wins, 0 losses)

Kayrat Akhmetov @ Valetudo (15 wins, 0 losses)

The worst part about this case, is that Valetudo, the Russian-based site is the main offender for a mix-up situation. Also visit the 15-0 profile and note that 12 of his 15 opponents are unknown. The most intriguing part about this fighter, is that he is allegedly a Flyweight. Given the weakness of the division and its recent action-packed debut into the UFC, the idea of an unknown, potentially undefeated Flyweight with nearly 20 wins is something to salivate over.

But, what about pro/am distinction? A Youtube journey of some of his fully known fights (opponents with actual names) mentions the word “amateur” in the description. Then again, does rural Kazakhstan have a legitimate commission to make this type of sanctioning distinction? Should we care and just record the results anyway, knowing that there are likely thousands of less legitimate fights already in the database?

Just some food for thought, for the thinkers out there.

Current MMA Rankings Updated: 1/13/2013

Posted on January 13, 2013 by Jason

Current MMA Rankings Updated: 01/06/2013

Posted on January 6, 2013 by Jason

Current and All-Time MMA Rankings Updated: 1/1/2013

Posted on January 1, 2013 by Jason

Fightmatrix Program: UFC 155 (12-29-2012)

Posted on December 28, 2012 by Jason

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0, 239.0lb) vs. [#2/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0, 240.0lb)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#6HW+] Frank Mir (16-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-11-12: W vs. [#2HW+/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2011-06-11: W vs. [*] Shane Carwin (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#7HW+] Antonio Silva (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-11-12: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 217, Cain Velasquez 217
Previous Match-up Record: Junior dos Santos leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#17] Jim Miller (21-4-0, 156.0lb) vs. [#18] Joe Lauzon (22-7-0, 156.0lb)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #22 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (1-2-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#5LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2012-01-20: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:04 of round 1
2011-08-14: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#52LW] Jamie Varner (20-7-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:44 of round 3
2012-02-26: L vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:47 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 238, Joe Lauzon 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#6] Tim Boetsch (16-4-0, 186.0lb) vs. [#22] Constantinos Philippou (11-2-0, 186.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Boetsch (3-0-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#7MW] Hector Lombard (32-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#16MW] Yushin Okami (27-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 3
2011-09-24: W vs. [#35MW] Nick Ring (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Constantinos Philippou (3-0-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#52MW] Riki Fukuda (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#68MW] Court McGee (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#123MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tim Boetsch 161, Constantinos Philippou 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

UFC 155 / Odds vs. Ratings

Posted on December 27, 2012 by Jason

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Holloway vs. Garcia	Holloway (-342 / Large)	Holloway (1.58x / Moderate)	PASS	#6
Moraga vs. Cariaso	Moraga (-177 / Small)	Cariaso (1.47x / Moderate)	Cariaso
Duffee vs. De Fries	Duffee (-287 / Moderate)	Duffee (1.30x / Small)	De Fries
Johnson vs. Jury	Johnson (-232 / Moderate)	Johnson (3.16x / Very Large)	PASS	#3
Guillard vs. Varner	Guillard (-129 / Very Small)	Guillard (1.30x / Small)	Guillard
Perez vs. Bloodworth	Perez (-416 / Large)	Perez (3.84x / Massive)	Perez
Pickett vs. Wineland	Wineland (-114 / Pick ‘Em)	Wineland (1.09x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS
Leben vs. Brunson	Leben (-150 / Small)	Leben (1.62x / Moderate)	PASS	#2
Okami vs. Belcher	Okami (-116 / Pick ‘Em)	Belcher (1.39x / Small)	Belcher
Boetsch vs. Philippou	Philippou (-115 / Pick ‘Em)	Boetsch (1.83x / Large)	Boetsch
Miller vs. Lauzon	Miller (-219 / Moderate)	EVEN	Lauzon
dos Santos vs. Velasquez	dos Santos (-203 / Moderate)	dos Santos (1.56x / Moderate)	PASS

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

There are two favorites worth backing: Guillard and Perez. Guillard is worth a very small bet, while Perez looks like good parlay material. He’s got a tremendous rating advantage over his opponent.

This leaves FIVE underdogs worth considering:

De Fries vs. Duffee – This one is worth a very small flier at best. Duffee is the ratings favorite, but the rating difference suggests Duffee projects to approximately a -160 favorite, not a -300 one.

Lauzon vs. Miller – A “dead even” fight by FightMatrix standards, so it’s worth taking a chance on Lauzon who is about a 2-to-1 underdog right now.

Belcher vs. Okami – Okami is a guy that the system has always shown a relative dislike for. Take that with a grain of salt and pass, or ride with Belcher for a moderate bet, even if he becomes a very slight favorite.

Cariaso vs. Moraga – Cariaso recently dropped from Bantam and took his points with him. If the weight comes off easily, he makes a fairly strong underdog bet.

Boetsch vs. Philippou – Though helped just a bit by his questionable decision win over Lombard, he looks to be the most solid underdog bet of the bunch.

1xbet

FightMatrix 2012 Awards: Upsets of the Year / Most Improved

Posted on December 25, 2012 by Jason

We feature two upsets per year, the most “noteworthy” and the most “lopsided”.

The most “noteworthy” upset is based on a net difference of pre-fight rating points, normalized by division.

This was not a big year for notable upsets, but the most noteworthy based on our standards was: Josh Sampo UD(3) Antonio Banuelos. For this win Sampo also earns the “most improved” award.

The most “lopsided” upset is based on the largest divisible difference between pre-fight rating points.

The upset that makes the notability cut is Ilir Latifi UD(3) Tony Lopez.

In the world of obscurity, quite possibility the biggest upset in history took place — assuming the previous records are correct (a main reason we have a notability requirement). On 9/8, a previously 0-3 fighter named Ben Santiago TKO’d Paulo Goncalves Silva, who was ranked and held a previous record of 18-7.