The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 10 Review
In Episode 10, Team Nelson took a win in the first quarter-final bout, as Colton Smith outgrappled and dominated Igor Araujo for a unanimous decision.
In the second quarter-final fight, two of Team Carwin fighters squared off, and Neil Magny came away the winner with another unanimous decision after two rounds.
This is another season of upsets, as the top 6 ranked fighters are already eliminated from the competition.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 4, Team Nelson 5 in head-to-head matchups.
Here’s who remains:
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Monday, May 4th 2026: DEEP 131 Impact | |||
 [#2 SW] Sora Sugiyama | [#14 SW] Sukai China | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/14/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#7 SW] Haruo Ochi Last 5: - - W W W | Last Fight Date: 3/08/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Saturday, May 9th 2026: Combate Global 99 Mexico vs. USA 2 | |||
 [#9 W105] Janet Garcia |  [#13 W105] Melissa Gomez | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 2/26/2026 [Combate Global] Last Opponent: [NR] Flor Hernandez Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 11/30/2025 [Open Fight Latam] Last Opponent: [NR] Nicole Artaza Last 5: W W L W W | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
| [#6 FW] A.J. McKee |  [#19 FW] Salamat Isbulaev | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#28 FW] Adam Borics Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 2/07/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#25 FW] Jesus Pinedo Last 5: W W W W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#18 W125] |  Lucia Szabova | [#1 MW] |  Khamzat Chimaev | |
| [#3 WW] |  Jack Della Maddalena | [#1 WW] |  Islam Makhachev | |
| [#3 LW] |  Arman Tsarukyan | [#12 FLW] | Steve Erceg | |
| [#7 WW] |  Carlos Prates | [#13 FW] | Youssef Zalal | |
| [#3 W135] |  Joselyne Edwards | [#3 FW] | Aljamain Sterling |
FightMatrix Program: UFC 154 (11-17-2012)
Welterweight Championship (170)
[*] Georges St. Pierre (22-2-0) vs. [#2] Carlos Condit (28-5-0)
Georges St. Pierre is the All-Time #1 ranked Welterweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #9 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Georges St. Pierre (3-0-0)
2011-04-30: W vs. [#10MW] Jake Shields (27-6-1) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2010-12-11: W vs. [#8WW] Josh Koscheck (17-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2010-03-27: W vs. [#34WW] Dan Hardy (25-10-0) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (3-0-0)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#4WW] Nick Diaz (26-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-07-02: W vs. [#22WW] Dong Hyun Kim (16-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2010-10-16: W vs. [#34WW] Dan Hardy (25-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:27 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Georges St. Pierre 567, Carlos Condit 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Georges St. Pierre leads 3-2
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Welterweight (170)
[#1] Martin Kampmann (20-5-0) vs. [#5] Johny Hendricks (13-1-0)
Martin Kampmann is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Johny Hendricks is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Martin Kampmann (3-0-0)
2012-06-01: W vs. [#6WW] Jake Ellenberger (28-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-03-03: W vs. [#31WW] Thiago Alves (19-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 3
2011-11-19: W vs. [#30WW] Rick Story (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Johny Hendricks (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#8WW] Josh Koscheck (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#11WW] Jon Fitch (24-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#14WW] Mike Pierce (15-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Martin Kampmann 169, Johny Hendricks 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Martin Kampmann leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#32] Francis Carmont (19-7-0) vs. [#48] Tom Lawlor (8-4-0)
Last 3 Fights: Francis Carmont (3-0-0)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#118MW] Karlos Vemola (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:39 of round 2
2012-04-14: W vs. [#173MW] Magnus Cedenblad (10-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:42 of round 2
2011-10-29: W vs. [#37MW] Chris Camozzi (18-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Tom Lawlor (2-1-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#102MW] Jason MacDonald (25-16-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 1
2011-11-19: L vs. [#3MW] Chris Weidman (9-0-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:07 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [#85MW] Patrick Cote (17-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Carmont 129, Tom Lawlor 186
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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All-Time Welterweight Rankings – Behind the Scenes Timeline
With the big Welterweight Championship fight approaching, I thought I would do a repeat of our Light Heavyweight analysis from yesterday, but for the Welterweight division.
The noise and fluctuations in this division are minimal in comparison. Furthermore, the gaps seen in this list between #2-#3, and #3-#4 are quite comical.
All-Time Light Heavyweight Rankings – Behind the Scenes Timeline
Admittedly, I thought this graph was going to be much more interesting when I envisioned creating it, but perhaps that is because it was far more painful than I had envisioned and now I hate life a little more.
Anyway, I often receive questions about the career all-time rankings, specifically pertaining to the point totals. First, let me explain a few things:
The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 9 Review
In Episode 9, Mike Ricci defeated Dom Waters in a three-round unanimous decision, giving Team Carwin their fourth win and tying the tally at 4-4 in the first round bouts.
Quarter-Final matchups were announced, and two of them will be pitting teammates against each other:
[#72 MW] Bristol Marunde vs [#327 MW] Neil Magny
[#142 WW] Igor Araujo vs [NR] Colton Smith
[#441 WW] Joey Rivera vs [#496 WW] John Manley
[#164 WW] Mike Ricci vs [#489 WW] Mike Hill
The current win tally is Team Carwin 4, Team Nelson 4 in head-to-head matchups.
Here’s who remains:
FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel (Franklin/Le): 2012-11-10
Middleweight (185)
[#10] Rich Franklin (29-6-0, 185.0lb) vs. [#46] Cung Le (8-2-0, 186.0lb)
Rich Franklin is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rich Franklin (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#26MW] Wanderlei Silva (34-12-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-02-05: L vs. [#8LHW] Forrest Griffin (19-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-06-12: W vs. [*] Chuck Liddell (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:55 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Cung Le (2-1-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#86MW] Patrick Cote (17-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-11-19: L vs. [#26MW] Wanderlei Silva (34-12-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:49 of round 2
2010-06-26: W vs. [#199MW] Scott Smith (17-10-0) via KO (Kick to the Body) in 1:46 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rich Franklin 140, Cung Le 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rich Franklin leads 2-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#29] Stanislav Nedkov (12-0-0, 203.0lb) vs. [#38] Thiago Silva (14-3-0, 205.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Stanislav Nedkov (3-0-0)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#115MW] Luiz Cane (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:20 of round 1
2010-05-21: W vs. [NA] Augustin Helgiu (0-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:14 of round 1
2009-11-07: W vs. [*] Kevin Randleman (17-16-0) via SD ()
Last 3 Fights: Thiago Silva (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2012-04-14: L vs. [#9LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (14-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-01-01: NC vs. [#26LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via NC (Overturned by NSAC) in 5:00 of round 3
2010-01-02: L vs. [#4LHW] Rashad Evans (22-2-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stanislav Nedkov 441, Thiago Silva 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#33] Dong Hyun Kim (15-2-1, 170.5lb) vs. [#39] Paulo Thiago (14-4-0, 169.5lb)
Paulo Thiago is the All-Time #25 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Dong Hyun Kim (1-2-0)
2012-07-07: L vs. [#7WW] Demian Maia (17-4-0) via TKO (Rib Injury) in 0:47 of round 1
2011-12-30: W vs. [#59WW] Sean Pierson (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-07-02: L vs. [#2WW] Carlos Condit (28-5-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Paulo Thiago (1-2-0)
2012-04-14: L vs. [#12WW] Siyar Bahadurzada (21-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:42 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#137WW] David Mitchell (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-10-23: L vs. [#15WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dong Hyun Kim 126, Paulo Thiago 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 8 Review
In Episode 8, Team Nelson keeps control of the matchups, and pulls ahead for the first time as John Manley forced a tapout from James Chaney with a guillotine choke in the first round. James ‘The Snake’ Chaney lived up to his nickname, biting Manley to try to escape the choke.
Dana White visited the fighters in the TUF house, giving his patented “do you want to be a fighter” speech, and threatening that all the fighters won’t get a slot at the finale if they don’t step up their performances. Judging by the fact that there are 12 bouts already lined-up for the December 15th live finale, the fighters didn’t take heed to his words and Dana lives up to his promise.
Next week, Dom Waters takes on Mike Ricci in the remaining first-round matchup.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 4.
Here’s who remains:
The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 7 Review
In Episode 7, Coach Nelson once again leaves the match-making to chance and his fighters. This time it works out better for the team, with some help from the judges, as Mike Hill scores a split decision win after going three rounds with Matt Secor. Another bizzare decision – this is the theme for the season. As usual, Dana White is exasperated and furious with the judges.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 3.
Here’s who remains:
The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 6 Recap
In Episode 6, Team Nelson scores another upset as Colton Smith takes a majority decision over Eddy Ellis. Once again, Dana White is not happy with the judges’ scores, and feels the fight should have gone to the third round.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 2. Looks like more wacky matchmaking is ahead for Team Nelson in the next episode, meaning they will likely not keep control of match-ups for long.
Here’s who remains:
UFC 153 / Odds vs. Ratings
If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.
I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. We ended up doing pretty good , though this is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.
Back again, to see if we could repeat the success with UFC 153… and here we go.
Note: Moraes/Forte and Marcello/Madadi are excluded as at least one fighter in each was unranked/inactive.
Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Ratings Favorite | “Who won” |
| Silva vs. Bonnar | Silva (-1005 / Epic) | Silva (9.4x^ / Ungodly) | Tie |
| Nogueira vs. Herman | Nogueira (-241 / Moderate) | Nogueira (3.4x / Massive) | Ratings |
| Teixeiravs. Maldonado | Teixeira (-492 / Large) | Teixeira (3.1x / Very Large) | Tie |
| Fitch vs. Silva | Silva (-185 / Small) | Fitch (1.61x / Moderate) | Ratings |
| Davis vs. Prado | Davis (-383 / Large) | Davis (10.46x / Ungodly) | Ratings |
| Maia vs. Story | Maia (-124 / Pick’Em) | Maia (2.09x / Large) | Ratings |
| Bezerra vs. Sicilia | Bezerra (-234 / Moderate) | Bezerra (1.08x / Pick’Em) | Gamblers |
| Tibau vs. Trinaldo | Tibau (-135 / Very Small) | Tibau (1.83x / Moderate)^ | Tie |
| Brandao vs. Gambino | Brandao (-247 / Moderate) | Brandao (1.34x / Very Small) | Gamblers |
| Camozzi vs. Cane | Cane (-150 / Very Small) | Camozzi (1.17x^ / Pick’Em) | Ratings |
^ – Pre-fight divisional difference was not factored into rating difference.