Average Current Ranking of Ranked Fighters by Organization
For this statistic, we used the organization that fighters last fought in, unless a fight is scheduled (that we have in our DB). The one thing I did do, is separate the 18 fighters who the UFC recently cut (Fitch group + Nunes and Vieira), into their own category. We left out the StrikeForce fighters who do not have a fight scheduled in the UFC yet.
Minimum of 15 ranked fighters necessary for an organization to be listed — Strawweights and Women excluded:
| Avg Rank | % in Top 25 | Organization |
| 74.8 | 35.7% | UFC (excluding recent 18 cuts) |
| 79.3 | 17.4% | World Series of Fighting |
| 122.2 | 11.8% | Recent 18 UFC Cuts (17 are ranked) |
| 144 | 11.8% | Bellator MMA |
| 155.1 | 13.6% | KSW |
| 158.6 | 5.6% | Legacy Fighting Championship (Texas) |
| 172.3 | 0.0% | Resurrection Fighting Alliance |
| 173.2 | 0.0% | Tachi Palace Fights |
| 173.3 | 0.0% | Shooto Americas |
| 177.8 | 0.0% | Maximum Fighting Championship |
| 178.4 | 2.4% | M-1 Global |
| 183.8 | 8.8% | Shooto |
| 187.7 | 5.3% | Ring of Combat |
| 190 | 0.0% | Showdown Fights |
| 191.1 | 6.9% | One Fighting Championship |
| 192.9 | 7.4% | Championship Fighting Alliance |
| 195.4 | 4.8% | Cage Fury Fighting Championships |
| 201.3 | 0.0% | Road Fighting Championship |
| 201.9 | 0.0% | Deep |
| 208.5 | 2.2% | King of the Cage |
| 209.5 | 2.3% | Pancrase |
| 210.3 | 4.8% | Score Fighting Series |
| 212.6 | 0.0% | British Association of Mixed Martial Arts |
| 216 | 0.0% | Jungle Fight |
| 218.8 | 5.6% | Strength and Honor Championship |
| 220.6 | 0.0% | Cage Warriors Fighting Championship |
| 229.8 | 0.0% | Classic Entertainment and Sports |
| 233.5 | 0.0% | ProFC |
| 234 | 5.3% | Legend Fighting Championship |
| 243.2 | 0.0% | Xtreme Fighting Championships (Florida) |
| 247.1 | 0.0% | Aggression Fighting Championship |
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Saturday, July 18th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Austin: Van Steenis vs. Eblen 2 | |||
 [#6 MW] Costello Van Steenis |  [#12 MW] Johnny Eblen | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#16 MW] Fabian Edwards Last 5: L W W W W | Last Fight Date: 3/28/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#51 MW] Bryan Battle Last 5: W W W L W | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
| [#7 W125] Liz Carmouche |  [#13 W125] Viviane Araujo | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 8/15/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#16 W125] Jena Bishop Last 5: W L W W W | Last Fight Date: 4/11/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#61 W125] Shanna Young Last 5: W L W L W | ||
| Sunday, May 31st 2026: Shooto Professional Shooto 2026 Vol. 4 | |||
 [#11 SW] Koyuru Tanoue | [#12 SW] Kazusa Kurobe | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/16/2025 [Shooto] Last Opponent: [#236 FLW] Jo Arai Last 5: W W W W L | Last Fight Date: 1/18/2026 [Shooto] Last Opponent: [#39 SW] Ken Asahina Last 5: W W W W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [NR] |  Conor McGregor | [#1 MW] | Sean Strickland | |
| [#1 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#58 WW] | Mike Perry | |
| [#11 MW] |  Israel Adesanya | [#1 WW] |  Islam Makhachev | |
| [#188 BW] | Phumi Nkuta | [#102 WW] |  Patrick Habirora | |
| [#168 WW] |  Namo Fazil | [#1 LHW] | Alex Pereira |
UFC on 157 / Odds vs. Ratings (02-23-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Magny vs. Manley | Magny (-161 / Small) | Magny (1.46x / Moderate) | PASS | #3 |
| Robertson vs. Jardine | Jardine (-160 / Small) | Robertson (1.48x / Moderate) | Robertson | |
| Bermudez vs. Grice | Bermudez (-412 / Large) | Grice (1.06x / Pick ‘Em) | Grice | |
| Stout vs. Fodor | Fodor (-154 / Small) | Stout (1.02x / Pick ‘Em) | Stout | |
| McGee vs. Neer | McGee (-293 / Moderate) | McGee (1.01x / EVEN) | PASS | #1 |
| Chiesa vs. Kuivanen | Chiesa (-206 / Moderate) | Kuivanen (2.20x / Large) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Schaub vs. Johnson | Schaub (-145 / Small) | Schaub (1.24x / Very Small) | PASS | |
| Koscheck vs. Lawler | Koscheck (-461 / Large) | Koscheck (1.76x / Moderate) | PASS | #1 |
| Faber vs. Menjivar | Faber (-376 / Large) | Faber (3.02x / Very Large) | Faber | |
| Machida vs. Henderson | Machida (-240 / Moderate) | Machida (1.21x / Very Small) | PASS | #2 |
| Rousey vs. Carmouche | Rousey (-1149 / Massive) | Rousey (3.03x / Very Large) | PASS | #3 |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. This particular card has a ton of question marks.
Favorites to consider: Faber is the only favorite worth a bet and a small one at that.
Underdogs to consider:
Stout over Fodor – 50/50 per the odds, so Stout serves as a minimally good value.
Robertson over Jardine – A fairly strong disagreement between ratings and odds. Fairly good value on Robertson.
Grice over Bermudez – A huge divide between the rating difference and the odds. It is quite rare to see this without any major “gotchas”.
The Uncut Sports Show: UFC Cuts Fighters, TUF Recap, and Anderson Silva at 170?
Well Episode 5 of TUF 17 did not disappoint. Jon Jones training partner Bubba McDaniel was going up against Kelvin Gastelum. McDaniels who is probably the most experienced fighter and talker in the house, had in many people’s minds the easy task of taking on the far less experienced Gastelum. Gastelum had a little extra motivation when Ronda Rousey told him that she would come out to Vegas to teach a lesson if he defeated McDaniel, and that’s exactly what he did. In a back and forth match, McDaniels snagged a rear naked choke and submitted McDaniels for the upset. This episode showed that this seasons TUF is full of entertaining twists, and also is appealing to the mainstream eye by including Ronda Rousey, and Mickey Rourke who showed up to chat with the fighters.
In other MMA News, several fighters were cut from the UFC this week, including Jon Fitch and Vladimir Matyushenko.
In addition, almost every fighter that was a loser at UFC on Fuel TV 7 was let go. Guess they need to make way for the lighter weight classes, and female fighters that will soon be a part of the crop. Anderson Silva has stated that he would be willing to drop to 170 lbs to have a superfight with GSP, and he said making the weight would be no problem. I’m sure Georges St-Pierre is happier than shit about this, yeah right.
Remember Josh Barnett rejected the offer the UFC made him. Well he’s finally come out and said why he rejected the contract, and why he will no longer be facing JDS at UFC 160. Barnett said it had to do with the legal battle between Bellator (Alvarez’ former employer) and the UFC over Eddie Alvarez services, which became public record. The UFC was offering a $250,000 signing bonus and a percentage of pay-per-view earnings if Alvarez fought for the UFC title or captured the belt.
Barnett, speaking via MMAJunkie, said:
“I was excited to fight Junior. I thought he was a favorable match up for me, but Zuffa was unwilling to give me something that they gave Eddie Alvarez. No disrespect to Eddie, but I felt it was fair to give it to me as well. Although things seem to be working out well for me, I feel bad for the fans. They wanted me to fight certain guys in the UFC and I really wanted to give them those fights. Once we get the deal we are working on done, the fight the fans scream for will be lost forever.”
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 5 Review
In Episode 5, a huge upset took place as the least experienced fighter of the cast, twenty-one year old Kevin Gastelum defeated the second-ranked contender Robert ‘Bubba’ McDaniel. Gastelum forced a tapout with a rear naked choke late in the second round, after a back-and-forth ground fight for positioning.
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 3, Team Jones 1.
Next week: top ranked contender Tor Troeng takes on Josh Samman. According to Coach Sonnen, there were not many takers to fight either of these guys. Which means that the winner of this fight may be the guy that Dana White said no one in the house wants to fight.
Then again, Dana White once said that Phil Nover is the next Anderson Silva, so take it with a grain of salt… or the whole shaker.
Here’s who remains:
Keep Reading
FightMatrix Program: UFC 157 (02-23-2013)
Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#1DD] Ronda Rousey (6-0-0) vs. [#8] Liz Carmouche (7-2-0)
Last 3 Fights: Ronda Rousey (3-0-0)
2012-08-18: W vs. [#3BW] Sarah Kaufman (15-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:54 of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#2BW] Miesha Tate (13-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1
2011-11-18: W vs. [#6FW] Julia Budd (4-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:39 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Liz Carmouche (2-1-0)
2012-07-28: W vs. [#19BW] Kaitlin Young (7-7-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:34 of round 2
2012-04-28: W vs. [NA] Ashleigh Curry (1-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1
2011-07-22: L vs. [#3BW] Sarah Kaufman (15-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronda Rousey 189, Liz Carmouche 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ronda Rousey leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2] Lyoto Machida (18-3-0) vs. [*] Dan Henderson (29-8-0)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2011-04-30: W vs. [*] Randy Couture (19-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 1:05 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (3-0-0)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#6LHW] Mauricio Rua (21-7-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-07-30: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (34-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1
2011-03-05: W vs. [#18LHW] Rafael Cavalcante (11-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 203, Dan Henderson 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#4] Urijah Faber (26-6-0) vs. [#52] Ivan Menjivar (25-9-0)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #21 ranked Bantamweight and #9 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (1-2-0)
2012-07-21: L vs. [#1BW/#10DD] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-11-19: W vs. [*] Brian Bowles (10-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:27 of round 2
2011-07-02: L vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (19-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Ivan Menjivar (2-1-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#585BW] Azamat Gashimov (9-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:44 of round 1
2012-07-07: L vs. [#35BW] Mike Easton (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-02-15: W vs. [#199BW] John Albert (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:45 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Urijah Faber 217, Ivan Menjivar 98
Previous Match-up Record: Urijah Faber leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
Stat of the Day: Average ranked height at each weight division (Updated)
We did a post back in September, on the Average ranked height at each weight division.
It’s probably “too soon” to start tracking trends, but I thought I would give it a shot, to see if the UFC’s involvement of smaller divisions is causing them to get “bigger”. We will also add in the new Strawweight division.
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| Division | Height | Top 50 | Diff | Top 50 Diff from 9/12 |
Tallest/Shortest |
| Heavyweight+ | 6’2.0″ | 6’3.0″ | +1.0″ | +0.2″ | 7’0″ – [#10] Stefan Struve 5’9″ – 5 Tied (Monson, Komkin, Brents, Leniu, O. Sanchez) |
| Light Heavyweight | 6’1.1″ | 6’1.1″ | = | -0.4″ | 6’7″ – [#170] Malik Merad 5’8″ – 4 Tied (Filho, DeAnda, Latifi, Kim) |
| Middleweight | 6’0.0″ | 6’0.4″ | +0.4″ | -0.2″ | 6’6″ – 3 Tied (Grove, Barnatt, Ling) 5’7″ – 5 Tied (Howard, Hernandez, Tapusoa, Martin, Graceffo |
| Welterweight | 5’10.8″ | 5’11.2″ | +0.4″ | +0.3″ | 6’4″ – [#344] Corey Hill 5’5″ – [#390] Lukasz Chlewicki |
| Lightweight | 5’9.4″ | 5’9.3″ | -0.1″ | = | 6’3″ – [#160] Zorobabel Moreira, [#227] Jose Figueora 5’0″ – [#494] Gilberto Aguilar |
| Featherweight | 5’8.1″ | 5’7.5″ | -0.6″ | -0.3″ | 6’4″ – [#182] Will Chope 5’1″ – [#366] Pablo Veloquio |
| Bantamweight | 5’6.9″ | 5’6.8″ | -0.1″ | +0.1″ | 6’1″ – [#155] Daniel Aguirre, [#187] Patrick Reeves 5’3″ – 3 Tied (Killon, Cavalcante de Oliveira, Ogikubo) |
| Flyweight | 5’5.2″ | 5’4.8″ | -0.4″ | -0.2″ | 5’9″ – [#14] Will Campuzano, [#93] Ricky Calatayud 5’1″ – [#27] Nate Williams |
| Strawweight* | 5’4.7″ | 5’4.7″ | NA | NA | 5’8″ – [#1] Mitsuhisa Sunabe, [#5] Mikihito Yamagami 5’2″ – [#2] Rambaa Somdet, [#7] Noboru Tahara |
So, it may have been too soon to take a second look at this. Since September, we don’t see much consistent movement either way between the average top 50 height. The most interesting thing in this table is that there is a 5’0″ Lightweight out there!
Fighter Representation Tracking: Please Give us Feedback
We at FightMatrix are constantly working to improve the site. However, this is not our full-time gig, so we are also constantly looking for ways to make the site more profitable, which will ultimately allow us to apply more focus to the site and improve it even more.
We are bouncing around the idea of a paid feature, which will allow fighter managers or representatives to “own” a fighter in our database. This will allow them to publish contact info in the “hover over” record within the ranking pages, so that other reps can contact said fighters for fights. Of course, we also plan to add additional features to support this:
- An extended profile page with the ability for managers to add “additional information” regarding fight bookings — desired weights and locations for example.
- A small logo on the ranking pages to show that manager/rep info is available.
- Filter on the ranking pages to show only fighters with manager/rep information.
- Filter on the ranking pages to show only fighters with a home location (configurable by the manager/rep) in X miles of a set location in an attempt to make it easier to fill local fight cards.
- A “holding pen” to allow support for unranked and inactive fighters.
- Some other stuff we haven’t thought of yet….
As far as pricing goes, we’re looking at somewhere in the vicinity of $15-$20/year for the first fighter and slightly less for each additional. Perhaps we will also sell in blocks of 5 or 10 for more savings.
Thoughts and feedback are welcome:
The Uncut Sports Show – UFC on Fuel TV: Renan Barao vs. Michael McDonald
The Uncut Sports Show is an uncensored sports news show featuring co-hosts Kevin White and George Bedford who offer their brash, comic and often non-politically-correct views on a mix of topics ranging from sports, controversial sports news, pop culture, gaming, as well as the often ridiculous day-to-day lives of the hosts.
This Saturday the Fuel TV 7 card will air from historic Wembley Arena in London. The main event is features Renan Barao going up against Michael McDonald in a battle for the interim bantamweight title. Che Mills and Matthew Riddle will meet in a welterweight bout. Mills has won 7 of his last 8, with that one lost coming to Rory MacDonald. While Riddle has been dealing with personal obstacles stemming from his drug suspension last year, to the birth of twin daughters.
James Te-Huna will face Ryan Jimmo. These to light-heavyweights both possess loads of KO power. If you recall Ryan Jimmo recorded the fastest KO in UFC history the last time he stepped into the Octagon.Gunnar Nelson an undefeated BJJ blackbelt will try and keep his perfect MMA record on the line against Jorge Santiago. Santiago has been kind of hit or miss lately, and this will be his first fight back in the UFC.
Jimi Manuwa who is also undefeated in his MMA career with 12 wins and 11 coming by way of KO, will face Cyrille Diabate a former lengthy kickboxer who also has the ability to put you to sleep.Cub Swanson is on a three fight win streak, and during this streak he has finished every one of his opponents. Dustin Poirer would like to put an end to that in this featherweight matchup.
Finally we have the interim Bantamweight title with Barao going up against McDonald. McDonald is impressive at 15-1 and his last two fights he finished his opponents with impressive KO’s. However he has a huge task in facing Barao who currently holds one of the longest unbeaten streaks in MMA today at 29 fights dating back to 2005.
FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel 7 (02-16-2013)
Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1] Renan Barao (29-1-0, 134.0lb) vs. [#6] Michael McDonald (15-1-0, 134.0lb)
Renan Barao is the All-Time #19 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Michael McDonald is the All-Time #22 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Renan Barao (3-0-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#3BW] Urijah Faber (26-6-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#22BW] Scott Jorgensen (14-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-11-05: W vs. [#11BW] Brad Pickett (22-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Michael McDonald (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#38BW] Miguel Torres (40-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2011-11-19: W vs. [#232BW] Alex Soto (6-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 1
2011-05-28: W vs. [#15FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-5-0) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renan Barao 210, Michael McDonald 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#8] Cub Swanson (18-5-0, 146.0lb) vs. [#21] Dustin Poirier (13-2-0, 145.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (3-0-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#31FW] Charles Oliveira (16-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:40 of round 1
2012-06-22: W vs. [#41LW] Ross Pearson (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#58FW] George Roop (12-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#81FW] Jonathan Brookins (13-6-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2012-05-15: L vs. [#12FW] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2012-02-04: W vs. [#64FW] Max Holloway (7-1-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 3:23 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 147, Dustin Poirier 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#34] Cyrille Diabate (19-8-1, 206.0lb) vs. [#36] Jimi Manuwa (12-0-0, 204.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Cyrille Diabate (2-1-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#144LHW] Chad Griggs (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:44 of round 1
2012-04-14: W vs. [#238MW] Tom DeBlass (7-2-0) via MD (28-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-11-05: L vs. [#39LHW] Anthony Perosh (13-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:09 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Jimi Manuwa (3-0-0)
2012-09-29: W vs. [#78LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2011-12-10: W vs. [#94LHW] Antony Rea (24-14-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 1
2011-10-22: W vs. [#380LHW] Nick Chapman (3-2-0) via TKO (Knees) in 2:14 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cyrille Diabate 91, Jimi Manuwa 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 4 Review
In Episode 4, Team Jones gets on the board with the first notable upset of the season, as Collin Hart controlls Kevin ‘The King’ Casey for a unanimous 20-18 decision.
Team Sonnen 2, Team Jones 1.
Next week: Bubba McDaniel vs Kelvin Gastelum.
Here’s who remains:
Keep Reading
UFC on Fuel 7 / Ratings vs. Odds
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites. Like most other financial decisions in life, you can make a best effort to find improved MMA betting odds to suit your individual needs.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds (UFC on Fuel 7)
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Gomez vs. Harris | Gomez (-243 / Moderate) | Gomez (1.02x / Pick ‘Em) | Harris | #4 |
| Lee vs. Tezuka | Lee (-199 / Moderate) | Tezuka (1.61x / Moderate) | Tezuka | #4 |
| Nedkov vs. Watson | Watson (-128 / Very Small) | Nedkov (1.45x / Small) | PASS | #1, #4 |
| Grispi vs. Ogle | Grispi (-129 / Very Small) | Grispi (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Sass vs. Castillo | Sass (-113 / Pick ‘Em) | Sass (1.06x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Etim vs. Forte | Etim (-315 / Large) | Etim (1.84x / Moderate) | PASS | #4 |
| Riddle vs. Mills | Mills (-228 / Moderate) | Mills (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) | Riddle | #4 |
| Te Huna vs. Jimmo | Te Huna (-205 / Moderate) | Jimmo (1.67x / Moderate) | Jimmo | #3 |
| Nelson vs. Santiago | Nelson (-243 / Moderate) | Santiago (2.21x / Large) | PASS | #1, #3 |
| Manuwa vs. Diabate | Manuwa (-226 / Moderate) | Diabate (1.11x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Swanson vs. Poirier | Swanson (-133 / Very Small) | Swanson (1.53x / Moderate) | Swanson | |
| Barao vs. McDonald | Barao (-318 / Large) | Barao (1.84x / Moderate) | PASS |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. This particular card has a ton of question marks, mainly focused around the venue.
Favorites to consider: Swanson is the only favorite worth a bet and a small one at that. He has been on quite a roll lately and I would go with him here.
Underdogs to consider:
- Riddle over Mills – The ratings suggest that this is almost an even fight. With the home advantage, Mills is a very slight favorite, but I think Riddle is worth a very small bet.
- Harris over Gomez – See above, but I think the home advantage makes this almost exactly a 50/50, so it’s a marginally better bet than above.
- Tezuka over Lee – Even with the nationality adjustments we do, I’m always leery of recommending the Japanese fighter on foreign soil. Though, I cannot ignore that Tezuka projects as a relatively solid favorite.
- Jimmo over Te Huna – This seems to be the big bet to run with on this card. Jimmo projects to win. If you’re going to bet large, I’d say, go with Jimmo.
Current MMA Rankings Updated
Notable Info
- Men’s Strawweight rankings now available. We will start this division with a limit of 120 pounds, which will include “tweener” divisions like URCC Pinweight (119lb) and Pancrase “Regular” Flyweight (120lb). We may decide to cut this off at a lower weight to put the aforementioned divisions into Flyweight, or move it up by one pound (so that it also includes all 55kg fights) in the future.
- Men’s Flyweight changed from “Under 131 pounds” to 121-129lb.
- Men’s Bantamweight changed from 131-138lb to 130-138lb.
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 3 Review
In Episode 3, Team Sonnen widens the lead and keeps control of the matchups as Uriah Hall knocked out Adam Cella with a brutal spinning kick that left Cella unconscious for several minutes.
Team Sonnen 2, Team Jones 0.
Next week: Kevin Casey vs Collin Hart.
Here’s who remains:
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