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Fight Matrix

This Past Weekend: Friday, April 15th, 2011

Posted on April 20, 2011 by Jonathan

These are the results from this past Friday and how they affected the fighter’s rankings.

Scrap Live – Fight Night 7
April 15, 2011

LJVM Coliseum Annex,
Winston-Salem, North Carolina, United States

Middleweight (185 lbs)

UFC veteran Rodney Wallace (11 – 4 – 0) defeated Cale Yarborough (8 – 3 – 0) by unanimous decision.  Since being released from the UFC in Auugust 2010, Wallace has gone 2-1.  Wallace moves from [#61LHW] into the middleweight “Top 350” at [#57] Yarborough, who is 2-3 in his last 5, drops 19 spots from  [#172] to [#191].

Lightweight (155 lbs)

“Ultimate Fighter” alum Cameron Dollar  (9 – 2 – 0) choked out Sylvain Bynum (4 – 2 – 0), winning by technical submission due to triangle choke at 1:46 of round 1.  Dollar, who was ranked at [#80FW], enters the lightweight “Top 500” at [#209].  Dollar is on a 5 fight win streak, all by stoppage.  Bynum, who is on a 2 fight losing streak, remains unranked.

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Shields/GSP: A Gambling Analysis

Posted on April 20, 2011 by Jason

Since my last gambling article went so well, I bring you the next edition of said article and this time we’re going to focus on GSP/Shields at UFC 129.

BetUS, the online sportsbook offers GSP as a -450 favorite, which means that to win $100, you would actually have to bet $450.  Now, comparing the odds to the perceived chance of winning is not like comparing oranges to oranges (more like pears to asian pears), but doing so reveals that GSP would be a good bet if you think he has greater than a 81.8% chance of winning.

How can you not like GSP in this match-up?  He’s already cemented himself as one of the very best fighters ever, and according to my recent “Age: Part V” article, he’s right in the zone of age/career age combination that sees some of the best winning percentages.  The only problem is, Shields is also in that same area.  Neither fighter has a significant age or size advantage; Shields is taller, but GSP has a larger reach — an old boxing study I performed showed that a reach advantage is markedly more important than height.  Needless to say though, there will probably be a lot of grappling here.

To make a long story short, I think this one goes the distance with GSP taking a 49-46 type of decision.

So, what do you do here?  I have to be very sure to recommend putting money on a -450 favorite and quite honestly, I’m not THAT sure.  Then again, Shields at +325 seems like a waste of coin.  I would go very small on GSP to win.

On the undercard, I’d say go big on Machida at -350.  Couture hasn’t fought a live opponent in nearly two years and is two months away from 48.

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 [#9 W125] Liz Carmouche [#13 W125] Jena Bishop
Last Fight Date: 6/20/2025 [Professional Fighters League]
Last Opponent: [#23 W125] Elora Dana
Last 5: W W L W W
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Last Opponent: [#30 W125] Ekaterina Shakalova
Last 5: W L L W W
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 [#1 W105] Seika Izawa [#27 W105] Yu Jin Shin
Last Fight Date: 12/31/2024 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#166 W115] Lucia Apdelgarim
Last 5: W W W W W
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Last Opponent: [NR] Seo Young Park
Last 5: W W W W NC
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 [#8 FW] Jesus Pinedo [#26 FW] Movlid Khaybulaev
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Last 5: W W W W W
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Last Opponent: [#134 FW] Tae Kyun Kim
Last 5: W W W W W

Featured Fighters

[#2 LW]  Ilia Topuria [#3 FLW]  Joshua Van
[#4 LW]  Charles Oliveira [#1 LW]  Islam Makhachev
[#12 LW]  Paddy Pimblett [NR]  Conor McGregor
[#1 FLW]  Alexandre Pantoja [#26 BW]  Felipe Lima
[NR]  Jon Jones [NR]  Khabib Nurmagomedov
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This Past Weekend: Bellator 41

Posted on April 18, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 41
April 16, 2011

Cocopah Resort and Casino,
Yuma, Arizona, United States

Non Title Bout

Catchweight (137 lbs)
Bellator featherweight champion Joe Warren (7 – 1 – 0) won a contentious unanimous decision over Marcos Galvao (9 – 4 – 1).  Warren, who is the Bellator featherweight (145 lb) champion, moves from [#6FW] to [#4BW].  Warren is now on a 5 fight win streak.  Consensus was that Galvao won rounds 1 and 2, while Warren won round 3.  Many people are calling the decision for Warren a “robbery.”  Galvao, who was on a 3 fight win streak prior to this loss, moves from [#108FW] to [#51BW].  Both men intend to fight in the upcoming bantamweight tournament coming up in September.

Bellator Featherweight Tournament Semifinal

Featherweight (145 lbs)
Patricio Freire (16 – 1 – 0) defeated Wilson Reis (12 – 3 – 0) by brutal KO due to punches at 3:29 of round 3.  The bout was relatively even up to the end, with Freire using his reach and counter striking game to edge out a slight advantage.  Freire found the chinks in Reis’s armor, and finally capitalized on them in the third round, overwhelming his opponent of shorter stature.   Freire jumps 10 spots up from [#21] to [#11]. His one loss comes to current featherweight champ [#4BW] Joe Warren.  He will face [#15] Daniel Straus in the finals of the season 4 featherweight tournament.  Reis drops 9 spots from [#22] to [#31].  2 out of 3 of Reis’s losses, who had never been stopped prior to this loss, come at the hands of Freire.

Non Title Bout

Bantamweight (135 lbs)
Bellator bantamweight champion Zach Makovsky (13 – 2 – 0) defeated Chad Robichaux (11 – 1 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 2:02 of round 3.  Makovsky used his superior wrestling to stifle the unorthodox offense of Robichaux.  A thrilling affair with many scrambles, Robichaux put forth a valiant attempt in his loss to the 135 lb champ.  Makovsky, who is on a 7 fight win streak, falls 1 spot from [#8] to [#9].   Robichaux, who was ranked at  [#37Fly], fell off the rankings.  Robichaux, an 11 year veteran of the sport, has won 10 of his 11 victories by submission.

Bellator Featherweight Tournament Semifinal

Featherweight (145 lbs)
Daniel Straus (16 – 3 – 0) defeated Kenny Foster (9 – 3 – 0) by submission due to guillotine choke at 3:48 of the 3rd round.  Straus, who is on a 12 fight win streak, moves up 2 spots from [#17] to [#15].  Straus used throws and superior clinchwork to vex Foster.    Straus will meet [#11] Patricio Freire in the finals of the season 4 featherweight tournament.   Foster, who dropped 3 spots from [#109] to [#112], is 8-2 in his last 10.

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MMA Rankings Updated: 4/17/2011

Posted on April 17, 2011 by Jason
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Tonight – Bellator 41 on MTV2

Posted on April 16, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 41
April 16, 2011
Cocopah Resort and Casino,
Yuma, Arizona, United States

Non Title Bout
Catchweight (137 lbs)
[#6 FW] Joe Warren (6 – 1 – 0) vs. [#108 FW] Marcos Galvao (9 – 3 – 1)

Non Title Bout
Bantamweight (135 lbs)
[#8] Zach Makovsky (12 – 2 – 0) vs. [#37 FLY] Chad Robichaux (11 – 0 – 0)

Bellator Featherweight Tournament Semifinals
Featherweight (145 lbs)
[#21] Patricio Freire (15 – 1 – 0) vs. [#22] Wilson Reis (12 – 2 – 0)

Featherweight (145 lbs)
[#17] Daniel Straus (16 – 2 – 0) vs. [#109] Kenny Foster (9 – 2 – 0)

Other Bouts

Heavyweight (265 lbs)
[#128] Carlos Flores (4 – 0 – 0) vs. [*] Rudy Aguilar (0 – 1 – 0)

Bantamweight (135 lbs)
[*] Anthony Birchak (4 – 0 – 0) vs. [*] Tyler Bialecki (7 – 3 – 0)

Featherweight (145 lbs)
[#205] Nick Piedmont (4 – 1 – 0) vs. [#419LW] Michael Parker (6 – 3 – 0)

Welterweight? (170 lbs)
[#286] Alex Garcia (12 – 4 – 0) vs. [*] Jose Diaz (2 – 10 – 0)

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This Past Saturday, April 9th Results and Rankings (Better late than never)!

Posted on April 16, 2011 by Jonathan

These are the results from this past Saturday and how they affected the fighter’s rankings.

Ringside MMA 10 – Cote vs. Starnes
April 9, 2011
Bell Centre,
Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Middleweight (185 lbs)

UFC veteran Patrick Cote (14 – 7 – 0) defeated fellow UFC vet Kalib Starnes (12 – 6 – 1) by unanimous decision.  Cote, who was on a 3 fight losing streak inside the UFC, jumps 34 spots from [#95] to [#61].  Starnes, who is 3-2 in his last 5, drops 22 spots from [#73] to [#95].

Welterweight (170 lbs)

TUF veteran Seth Baczynski (13 – 6 – 0) defeated Alex Garcia (6 – 1 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 2:44 of the 2nd round.  Baczynski, who is on a 2 fight win streak (both by stoppages due to strikes), bounds 58 spots up from [#186] to [#128].  Garcia, who rattled off 6 stoppage wins in a row prior to this loss, plummets 151 spots from [#228] to [#379].

Featherweight (145 lbs)

Michael Gagnon (7 – 1 – 0) defeated Rejean Groulx (5 – 1 – 0) by TKO due a slam at 3:47 of the 3rd round.  Gagnon, who is on a 5 fight win streak (all by stoppage), jumps 43 spots up from [#115] to [#72].  Groulx, who has finished 4 of his 5 victories by stoppage, plummets 109 spots from [#136] to [#245].

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)

Roger Hollett (12 – 3 – 0) defeated Martin Desilets (11 – 3 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 1:39 of the 2nd round.  Hollett, who is on a 4 fight win streak, jumps 55 spots up from [#102] to [#47].  Desilets, who was on a 4 fight win streak, drops 25 spots from [#43] to [#68].

Lightweight (155 lbs)

Iraj Hadin (6 – 3 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Derek Gauthier (6 – 3 – 0).  Hadin, who is 3-2 in his last 5, jumps 67 spots from [#219] to [#286].  Gauthier, who is 2-3 in his last 5, remains unranked.

Lightweight (155 lbs)

Bellator veteran Mike Ricci (6 – 1 – 0) defeated Jesse Ronson (5 – 2 – 0) by TKO due to punches at 3:12 of round 1.  Ricci, who rebounded from a loss to Bellator lightweight tournament champion [#44] Pat Curran, jumps 51 spots from [#295] to [#244].  Ronson, who is 1-2 in his last 3, remains unranked.

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Bellator signs FightMatrix #3 Bantamweight Prospect

Posted on April 15, 2011 by Jason

Luiz Alberto Nogueira has just been signed by Bellator (Source: Sherdog)

Maybe someone paid close attention to the article?

Age: Its Impact on Fights (Part V)

Posted on April 14, 2011 by Jason

Today, we’re going to look at a fighter’s prime, and if a distinctive peak period can be ascertained by looking at a combination of age AND “career age” (time between debut date and fight date).  In most professional sports, it’s usually agreed upon that a person’s prime is between their late 20s and early-mid 30s, with women having the potential of reaching this prime a few years later.

First, I took all of the fight outcomes where a fighter had a valid birth date and grouped my counts by age and career age.

For the record, a fighter’s first year is treated as year 0, just like a person’s age.

The Top 5 most common combinations are:

 

Age Career
Age
23 1
24 1
25 1
22 1
24 2

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The Ultimate Fighter 13 – Episode 3 results

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Oleg

In Episode 3, [#182 WW] Justin Edwards joined Team Dos Santos as an alternate, replacing Keon Caldwell.

In the third opening round fight, Team Dos Santos’ Ryan McGillivray defeated Team Lesnar’s Len Bentley by a majority decision (20-18, 20-18, 19-19), advancing to the quarter-finals.

The current win tally is 2 Team Dos Santos, 1 Team Lesnar.

Here’s who remains:

[#113] Anthony Ferguson

[#182] Justin Edwards
episode 3: alternate taking place of Keon Caldwell

[#179] Myles Jury
episode 1: forced to withdraw due to an injury

[#200] Ryan McGillivray
episode 3: moved on to quarter-finals with a majority decision win (20-18, 20-18, 19-19) over Len Bentley

[#247 LW] Ramsey Nijem

[#289] Chuck O’Neil
episode 1: alternate taking place of Miles Jury

[#321] Charlie Rader

[#364] Shamar Bailey
episode 1: moved on to quarter-finals with a 20-18 unanimous decision win over Nordin Asrih

[#387] Clay Harvison

[#441] Chris Cope
episode 2: moved on to quarter-finals with a 29-28 overtime unanimous decision win over Javier Torres

[#475] Len Bentley
episode 3:lost a majority decision win (20-18, 20-18, 19-19) to Ryan McGillivray

[NR] Nordin Asrih
episode 1: lost a unanimous decision (20-18) to Shamar Bailey

[NR] Michael Bowman

[NR] Keon Caldwell
episode 2: withdrew from competition

[NR] Zachary Davis

[NR] Javier Torres
episode 2: lost an overtime unanimous decision (29-28) to Chris Cope

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This Past Weekend: Friday, April 8th, 2011

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Jonathan

Maximum Fighting Championships 29 – Conquer
April 8, 2011
The Colosseum at Caesars Windsor,
Windsor, Ontario, Canada

MFC Welterweight Championship

Welterweight (170 lbs)

Douglas Lima (18 – 4 – 0) blasted UFC veteran Terry Martin (21 – 9 – 0) and won by TKO due to punches at just 1:14 into round 1.  Douglas Lima moves up 15 spots from [#51] to [#36].  Lima is on a 6 fight win streak- winning 4 by stoppage, 3 by submission.  Martin drops 37 spots from [#69] to [#106].  Martin is 3-2 in his last 5.

MFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)

Ryan Jimmo (15 – 1 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Strikeforce vet Zak Cummings (13 – 3 – 0).  Jimmo, who is undefeated in 15 bouts, stays ranked at [#22].  Cummings, who has won 3 of his last 5 all via stoppage, drops 2 spots from [#81] to [#83].  Cummings was an injury replacement for [#36] Emmanuel Newton.

Lightweight (155 lbs)

UFC veteran Marcus Davis (18 – 9 – 0) defeated Curtis Demarce (10 – 9 – 0) by split decision.  Davis, who stayed ranked at [#59], won his first fight after being cut from the UFC following a less than stellar 1-4 run.  Davis most recent loss was a KO due to a punch at the hands of to [#23] Jeremy Stephens.  Demarce jumps 33 spots up the rankings from [#266 ] to [#230].  Demarce is on a 2 fight losing streak, both by split decision.  Prior to the 2 losses, Demarce was on a 7 fight win streak.

Lightweight (155 lbs)

UFC veteran Hermes Franca (21 – 11 – 0) defeated Robert Washington (9 – 3 – 0) by KO due to a punch at 0:26 into the 2nd round.  Franca, who was ranked at [#202WW], moves into the lightweight “Top 500” at [#166].  Franca is on a 2 fight win streak, stopping both of his opponents.  Washington, who remains unranked, has lost 3 of his last 5, 2 by KO.

Welterweight (170 lbs)

UFC veteran Pete Spratt (22 – 19 – 0) defeated Demi Deeds (15 – 9 – 0) via submission due to an armbar at 4:19 of round 2.  Spratt, who has lost 3 of his last 5 all to chokes, bounds 51 spots forward from [#213] to [#162], gaining his 9th career victory via submission.  Deeds, who was ranked at [#351LW] moves into the welterweight “Top 500”at [#459].  Deeds is on a 3 fight slide, losing all 3 by submission.

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Age: Its Impact on Fights (Part IV)

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Jason

With almost 3,000 birthdates now (nearly twice as many as before), we’re now going to see if fighters get more complacent with age.  This analysis looks at almost 28,000 fights, which I consider to be an acceptable sample set.

Furthermore, I am only analyzing wins with known outcome types and am considered a finish as a TKO, KO, DQ or SUB.

I thought the increased sample set would help matters, but the peak after 40 is larger than ever and even starts in the late 30s this time.  The logarithmic trendline still follows through with a consistent descent, but is nearly even at the end of the age range.

Are the older fighters likely fighting other older fighters and the eventual loser does not have the stamina to finish the fights?  Or are the older fighters more likely to take soft touches?

The sample set is now even more pronounced in that it is reflecting mainly the 21-31 year old fighters, so it’s as if the trendline knows (without me telling it) that the weight supports data on the left side moreso than the right.

Age: Its Impact on Fights (Part III)

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Jason

Today, we look at the rate of stoppage losses and how it affects aging fighters.  The critics against older fighters competing should have a good time with this one.

Stoppage Loss% By Age

First, a few notes.

  • I included TKOs, KOs, and DQs in the stoppages.
  • The “dotted line” represents the sample average.
  • The “red line” represents the trendline — helping to smooth out the peaks and valleys.

The limits of the sample set shine through in this analysis, so I decided to toss the trend-line in.  For the younger fighters, the stoppages account for less than 25% of the losses, but notice how that nearly doubles (on a trend-line basis) once the fighters get into their 40s.

 

Age: It’s impact on fights (Part II)

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jason

A little disclaimer before viewing the following results.

Obviously, the fighters we actually have birthdates are, for the most part, more “well known” than the fighters who we don’t have birthdates for.  So, in the following, you can’t compare to a 50% win percentage (you can’t anyway, because draws are included), you’ll have to compare to the sample average.  Having said that…

Win % by Age

Win% By Age

In the above graph, the dotted line represents the sample average.  I’m very surprised at the almost impeccable trend downward, which starts all the way at the beginning when the fighters are in their teens.  The teenage group boasts an astounding 79.8% win percentage.

The spike after age 39 is undoubtedly a result of the few ageless wonders that we’ve seen in the recent years of MMA, carefully picking and choosing their spots rather than retiring.


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This Past Weekend: Bellator 40

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jonathan

Bellator Fighting Championships 40
April 9, 2011

First Council Casino,
Newkirk, Oklahoma, United States

Non Title Bout

Welterweight (170 lbs)
Ben Askren (8 – 0 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Nick Thompson (38 – 14 – 1).  Askren remains ranked at [#21] with this victory.  Askren showed true positional dominance on the ground, thoroughly flustering Thompson in all 3 rounds.  Nick Thompson drops 1 spot from [#128] to [#129].  Thompson, who is on a 4 fight losing streak and has not won since February of 2009, announced his intention to retire following the bout.

Bellator Welterweight Tournament Semifinal

Welterweight (170 lbs)
Jay Hieron (21 – 4 – 0) defeated Brent Weedman (18 – 6 – 1) via unanimous decision.  Weedman was the aggressor for much of the bout, but the judges felt Hieron’s boxing earned him the victory.  Hieron breaks into the top ten, jumping 5 spots from [#15] to [#10].  He will face [#47] Rick Hawn in the finals of the season 4 welterweight tournament.  Now Hieron is 11 spots higher than Bellator welterweight champ Ben Askren.  Brent Weedman drops 2 spots from [#28] to [#30].  Prior to this loss, Weedman was on a 3 year, 10 fight win streak.

Bellator Lightweight Tournament Semifinal

Lightweight (155 lbs)
Michael Chandler (7 – 0 – 0) won a unanimous decision over Lloyd Woodard (11 – 1 – 0)  Chandler used superior wrestling to control the taller Woodard throughout the fight.  Chandler, who bounds 109 spots forward from [#161] to [#52], advances to the finals to face [#51] Patricky Freire.  Chandler had stopped all his opponents prior to this bout.  Lloyd Woodard falls 20 spots from [#46] to [#66].  Woodard suffered defeat for the first time on Saturday night, but he has much to offer and should be back in the Bellator cage soon.

Keep Reading

Age: It’s impact on fights (Part I)

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Jason

This was spurred on by the Bloody Elbow/Fight Metric Research Contest.  I wonder if using FM data makes it ineligible?

Whatever the case is, here I am with another “stat geek” article for our readers’ consumption.   Some notes before I get into the bulk of it:

  • 1,361 fighters have valid birthdates in the database (this is a relatively new data attribute for us).
  • 4,317 pro fights have two fighters with a valid birthdate.
  • 4,062 pro fights are used in this analysis (excluded draws and no contests) when both fighters need a valid birthdate.
  • 18,898 pro fights are used in this analysis (excluded draws and no contests) when only one fighter needs a valid birthdate.

As you can see, not the largest sample set, but a decent amount nonetheless.

For starters, the average MMA fighter (at the time of the fight) was 10,198 days old.  If you divide this by 365.2425 (don’t hate on leap years), you get a yearly result of 27.92… so roughly 27 years and 11 months.

The winner, on average, was 126 days younger.  Although slim, this is pretty substantial considering the data set.

The oldest fighter in the analysis at the time of the fight?  Dan Severn.  He’s the oldest winner AND oldest loser.

The youngest fighter?  Nam Jin Jo.  Now, I’m not sure if this is legit, but he was only 5,346 days old (a little over 14 years and 7 months) when he beat Jin Woo Kim in a 2005 Spirit MC show.

The oldest combined age in a fight, by far, took place when Randy Couture beat Mark Coleman — nearly 92 years.

More to come…

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