This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: NONE

Underdogs to consider:

• Mendez over Sarafian – A respectable flier on a big underdog that is comparable in ranking to the favorite.
  
• High over Silva – See above.  High has been on quite a streak as well.
• Brunson over Markes – Another case where the home fighter is getting (perhaps) a bit too much credit.
• Castro over Arantes – Arantes has a fraction of a rating point over Castro, while he is a -221 favorite.

Heavyweight (265)
[#5] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1, -300) vs. [#10] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1, +237)
Fabricio Werdum is the All-Time #9 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Fabricio Werdum (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#42HW+] Mike Russow (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:28 of round 1
2012-02-04: W vs. [#9HW+] Roy Nelson (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-06-18: L vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2-1-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#68HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:31 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#7HW+] Frank Mir (16-7-0) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#16HW+] Brendan Schaub (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fabricio Werdum 350, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 238
Previous Match-up Record: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#101LW] Leonardo Santos (11-3-0, -235) vs. [#577] William Macario (6-0-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2012-09-01: W vs. [#207LW] Mark Holst (12-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:15 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [#1040FW] Gilmar Silva Milhorance (2-10-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:47 of round 1
2011-05-21: W vs. [#364LW] Jason Ball (20-12-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: William Macario (3-0-0)
2012-06-30: W vs. [#1062LW] Paulo Silva (5-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:56 of round 1
2011-12-17: W vs. [NA] Roger Berger (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#920WW] Gabriel Monkey (4-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leonardo Santos 280, William Macario 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#21] Rafael Cavalcante (11-3-0, -203) vs. [#37] Thiago Silva (14-3-0, +167)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Cavalcante (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2012-05-19: NC vs. [#19HW+] Mike Kyle (20-9-1) via No Decision (Overturned by CSAC) in 0:33 of round 1
2011-09-10: W vs. [#122MW] Yoel Romero Palacio (5-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 2
2011-03-05: L vs. [#3LHW] Dan Henderson (29-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Silva (0-1-0, 2 NC)
2012-11-10: NC vs. [#97MW] Stanislav Nedkov (12-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:45 of round 3
2012-04-14: L vs. [#4LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-01-01: NC vs. [#31LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via NC (Overturned by NSAC) in 5:00 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Cavalcante 385, Thiago Silva 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change or missed weight.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Nurmagomedov, Cerrone, dos Santos

Underdogs to consider:

• Silva vs. Velasquez – Velasquez is the strong ratings favorite, but a “shot in the dark” is warranted as Silva is a strong contender — ratings-wise.
• Holloway over Bermudez – Bermudez is favored by the ratings, but is close to 50/50.
• Grant over Maynard – See above, same deal but a slightly better wager.
• Pyle over Story – The only real disagreement between ratings and odds on this card with no gotchas.

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0, -701) vs. [#4] Antonio Silva (18-4-0, +490)
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Antonio Silva is the All-Time #23 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-11-12: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 3
2012-10-05: W vs. [#12HW+] Travis Browne (14-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cain Velasquez 147, Antonio Silva 112
Previous Match-up Record: Cain Velasquez leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#2/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0, -397) vs. [#8] Mark Hunt (9-7-0, +311)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #4 ranked Heavyweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Mark Hunt is the All-Time #18 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#7HW+] Frank Mir (16-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-11-12: W vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mark Hunt (3-0-0)
2013-03-03: W vs. [#13HW+] Stefan Struve (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 3
2012-02-26: W vs. [#19HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-8-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-09-24: W vs. [#25HW+] Ben Rothwell (32-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 147, Mark Hunt 83
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Glover Teixeira (19-2-0, -284) vs. [#19] James Te Huna (16-5-0, +229)

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#12LHW] Quinton Jackson (32-11-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#56LHW] Fabio Maldonado (19-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [*] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: James Te Huna (3-0-0)
2013-02-16: W vs. [#24LHW] Ryan Jimmo (17-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#64LHW] Joey Beltran (14-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#71LHW] Aaron Rosa (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:08 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 119, James Te Huna 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Lineker, Tibau

Underdogs to consider:

• Zeferino over Natal- A bit of a speculative play here.  The odds are just a tad too wide for Natal.
  
• Santos over Alcantara – See above.  We have Alcantara as something like a -450 favorite.  This one is tight and worth a tiny bet at most.
• Hollett over Maldonado – Though Maldonado is at home and a moderate favorite, his three straight losses and the rating system disagree pretty strongly.

Middleweight (185)
[#2] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0, -100) vs. [#4] Luke Rockhold (10-1-0, -124)
Luke Rockhold is the All-Time #22 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2013-01-19: W vs. [#7MW] Michael Bisping (24-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2
2012-09-22: L vs. [#1LHW/#5DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-01-14: W vs. [#14LHW] Anthony Johnson (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Luke Rockhold (3-0-0)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#19MW] Tim Kennedy (15-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#54MW] Keith Jardine (17-12-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 1
2011-09-10: W vs. [#9MW] Ronaldo Souza (17-3-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 119, Luke Rockhold 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#9] Ronaldo Souza (17-3-0, -547) vs. [#30] Chris Camozzi (19-5-0, +402)
Ronaldo Souza is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#37MW] Ed Herman (20-9-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:10 of round 1
2012-08-18: W vs. [#25MW] Derek Brunson (10-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#145MW] Bristol Marunde (12-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:43 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chris Camozzi (3-0-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#33MW] Nick Ring (13-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#134MW] Luiz Cane (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-22: W vs. [#342WW] Nick Catone (9-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:51 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Souza 126, Chris Camozzi 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#12] Rafael dos Anjos (18-6-0, -191) vs. [#21] Evan Dunham (14-3-0, +160)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (3-0-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#27LW] Mark Bocek (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#57LW] Anthony Njokuani (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#169LW] Kamal Shalorus (7-3-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:40 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Evan Dunham (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#22LW] Gleison Tibau (26-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#8LW] T.J. Grant (20-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#10FW] Nik Lentz (23-5-2) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 182, Evan Dunham 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Evan Dunham leads 2-0
.
Keep Reading