Fight Matrix

Gambling Analysis: UFC 159

Posted on April 22, 2013 by Jason

It has been about 7 months since we made a bet in the “Gambling Analysis” series, so I thought it was a good time to pull it out of retirement. Although similar to the “Ratings vs. Odds” series, in this post we use the ratings more as a supporting factor rather than a guiding factor.

I am usually against betting on huge favorites, but I don’t think you can go wrong on Jones @ -857 (the current meta-average). He projects at somewhere around -1100 and I can see Sonnen plodding around the octagon, until he gets stopped late in the 2nd with a barrage of strikes. There is a chance that the return to 205 makes Sonnen a better fighter, but I just don’t see him being able to take Jones out.

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For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:

UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
- Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
- No Outcome Predicted
UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
- Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
- Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
- No Contest
UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
- Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
- No Outcome Predicted
Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
UFC 152 – Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson: Benavidez @ -290
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Split Decision Loss
UFC 159 – Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen: Jones @ -857
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2) | Actual:

If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $255.95. If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit. We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t count them.

Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.

MMA Rankings Updated: 04-21-2013

Posted on April 21, 2013 by Jason

Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Saturday, December 13th 2025: PFL Europe 4: 2025 Finals

[#1 W145] Cristiane Justino

[#3 W145] Sara Collins

Last Fight Date: 10/19/2024 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#2 W145] Larissa Pacheco
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 9/14/2024 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#6 W145] Leah McCourt
Last 5: W W W W W

Sunday, December 14th 2025: Deep - Tokyo Impact 2025 6th Round

[#2 SW] Haruo Ochi

[#9 SW] Sora Sugiyama

Last Fight Date: 3/30/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#41 SW] Nobuyoshi Nakatsukasa
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 9/15/2025 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#41 SW] Nobuyoshi Nakatsukasa
Last 5: - - - W W

Saturday, December 13th 2025: PFL Europe 4: 2025 Finals

[#8 HW] Vadim Nemkov

[#10 HW] Renan Ferreira

Last Fight Date: 1/25/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#29 HW] Tim Johnson
Last 5: NC W W W W

Last Fight Date: 10/19/2024 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#3 HW] Francis Ngannou
Last 5: W W W W L

Featured Fighters

[#1 LW]	Islam Makhachev	[#15 WW]	Gabriel Bonfim
[#1 WW]	Jack Della Maddalena	[#28 WW]	Uros Medic
[#45 WW]	Seok Hyeon Ko	[#2 LW]	Ilia Topuria
[#145 LW]	Ismael Bonfim	[#31 WW]	Randy Brown
[#3 LW]	Charles Oliveira	[#1 MW]	Khamzat Chimaev

UFC on Fox / Odds vs. Ratings (04-20-2013)

Posted on April 18, 2013 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Romero Palacio vs. Starks	Romero Palacio (-154 / Small)	Starks (1.90x / Large)	PASS	#2, #3
Bowling vs. Njokuani	Njokuani (-169 / Small)	Njokuani (1.10x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#1, #3
Dillashaw vs. Viana	Dillashaw (-382 / Large)	Dillashaw (1.16x / Very Small)	Viana	#3
Masvidal vs. Means	Masvidal (-148 / Small)	Masvidal (1.23x / Very Small)	PASS
Benavidez vs. Uyenoyama	Benavidez (-540 / Very Large)	Benavidez (2.86x / Very Large)	PASS
Jury vs. Nijem	Jury (-284 / Moderate)	Jury (2.11x / Large)	Jury	#3
Mendes vs. Elkins	Mendes (-689 / Very Large)	Mendes (1.05x / Pick ‘Em)	Elkins
Larkin vs. Carmont	Carmont (-145 / Small)	Larkin (1.28x / Small)	PASS	#6
Mein vs. Brown	Mein (-350 / Large)	Mein (1.94x / Large)	PASS
Diaz vs. Thomson	Diaz (-201 / Moderate)	Diaz (1.66x / Moderate)	PASS
Cormier vs. Mir	Cormier (-430 / Large)	Cormier (1.24x / Very Small)	PASS	#3
Henderson vs. Melendez	Henderson (-301 / Large)	Henderson (1.84x / Large)	PASS

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Jury

Underdogs to consider:

Elkins over Mendes: I partially blame this on poor recent matchmaking for Mendes. Two squash matches did nothing for his rating. Even still, At such ridiculous odds, Elkins is worth a bet.
Viana over Dillashaw: Viana has a real shot at winning this one. An attractive underdog bet.

FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fox (04-20-2013)

Posted on April 17, 2013 by Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#6DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0, -281) vs. [#2] Gilbert Melendez (21-2-0, +227)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Gilbert Melendez is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #17 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Melendez (3-0-0)
2012-05-19: W vs. [#16LW] Josh Thomson (19-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2011-12-17: W vs. [#20LW] Jorge Masvidal (23-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#8FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (32-7-2) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 133, Gilbert Melendez 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Daniel Cormier (11-0-0, -426) vs. [#7] Frank Mir (16-6-0, +328)
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #24 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Frank Mir is the All-Time #8 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#139LHW] Dion Staring (28-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 2
2012-05-19: W vs. [#10HW+] Josh Barnett (32-6-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-09-10: W vs. [#3HW+] Antonio Silva (18-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Frank Mir (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-12-10: W vs. [#9HW+] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-05-28: W vs. [#12HW+] Roy Nelson (18-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Cormier 98, Frank Mir 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#6] Nate Diaz (16-8-0, -201) vs. [#16] Josh Thomson (19-5-0, +166)
Nate Diaz is the All-Time #23 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (2-1-0)
2012-12-08: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#11LW] Jim Miller (22-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#15LW] Donald Cerrone (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Thomson (1-2-0)
2012-05-19: L vs. [#2LW] Gilbert Melendez (21-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#87LW] K.J. Noons (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-12-31: L vs. [#8FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (32-7-2) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nate Diaz 133, Josh Thomson 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Josh Thomson leads 1-0
.
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Fight Outcomes by Year: Bellator

Posted on April 17, 2013 by Oleg

Expanding on our “Fight Outcomes By Year” feature, we compiled the statistics for Bellator MMA:

http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-records-stats/bellator-fight-outcomes-by-year/

Of course the all MMA fight outcomes by year and UFC fight outcomes by year stats are still available.

We’ll be adding breakdowns for more organizations and by weight class in the future.

MMA Rankings Updated: 04-14-2013

Posted on April 14, 2013 by Jason

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UFC TUF 17 Finale [Non-TUF Only] / Odds vs. Ratings (04-13-2013)

Posted on April 13, 2013 by Jason

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Lawrence vs. Pineda	Pineda (-117 / Pick ‘Em)	Pineda (2.11x / Large)	Pineda
Sicilia vs. Blanco	Blanco (-160 / Small)	Blanco (1.24x / Very Small)	PASS	#1
Miller vs. Palaszewski	Palaszewski (-170 / Small)	Palaszewski (2.11x / Large)	Palaszewski
Hester vs. Marunde	Hester (-161 / Small)	Marunde (2.02x / Large)	Marunde
Browne vs. Gonzaga	Browne (-258 / Moderate)	Gonzaga (1.34x / Small)	Gonzaga
Tate vs. Zingano	Zingano (-124 / Pick ‘Em)	Tate (1.57x / Moderate)	PASS	#3
Faber vs. Jorgensen	Faber (-464 / Large)	Faber (2.29x / Large)	PASS

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Pineda, Palaszewski

Underdogs to consider: Marunde, Gonzaga

New Feature: Fight Outcomes By Year

Posted on April 12, 2013 by Oleg

A couple of years ago, we published a compilation of all UFC fight outcomes by year, from 1993 to 2010.

By popular request, we decided to make this a permanent feature. We created a page for UFC statistics, and another one for all MMA fights in our database. There are also some statistics on fight outcome percentages, and a breakdown of different decision types. So read on:

All MMA Fight Outcomes By Year

UFC Fight Outcomes by Year

Thanks to Underground Forum (UG) members crazychris & D241 for the suggestion!

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FightMatrix Program: TUF 17 Finale (04-13-2013)

Posted on April 11, 2013 by Jason

Bantamweight (135)
[#4] Urijah Faber (27-6-0, -458) vs. [#27] Scott Jorgensen (14-6-0, +354)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #11 ranked Bantamweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.
Scott Jorgensen is the All-Time #18 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#59BW] Ivan Menjivar (25-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1
2012-07-21: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-11-19: W vs. [*] Brian Bowles (10-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:27 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Scott Jorgensen (1-2-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#211BW] John Albert (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2012-06-08: L vs. [#6BW] Eddie Wineland (20-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 2
2012-02-04: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Urijah Faber 49, Scott Jorgensen 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Urijah Faber leads 4-2
.

Middleweight (185)
[#152] Uriah Hall (7-2-0, -357) vs. [NA] Kelvin Gastelum (5-0-0, +278)

Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (3-0-0)
2012-06-15: W vs. [#509MW] Nodar Kuduxashvili (5-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-02-10: W vs. [#661MW] Daniel Akinyemi (3-1-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 3:58 of round 1
2011-04-08: W vs. [#217MW] Aung La Nsang (13-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:37 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (3-0-0)
2012-07-20: W vs. [NA] Mike Ashford (3-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:57 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#778MW] Bill Smallwood (1-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:55 of round 1
2011-10-22: W vs. [NA] Mike Gentile (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uriah Hall 302, Kelvin Gastelum 267
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#2/#10DD] Miesha Tate (13-3-0, -102) vs. [#6] Cat Zingano (7-0-0, -125)
Miesha Tate is the All-Time #10 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Miesha Tate (2-1-0)
2012-08-18: W vs. [#17BW] Julie Kedzie (16-11-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:28 of round 3
2012-03-03: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD] Ronda Rousey (7-0-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1
2011-07-30: W vs. [#1FW/#2DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Cat Zingano (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#24BW] Raquel Pennington (3-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:32 of round 2
2011-05-14: W vs. [#10FLY] Takayo Hashi (14-4-0) via KO (Slam) in 4:42 of round 3
2010-12-10: W vs. [#22FLY] Carina Damm (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:37 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miesha Tate 238, Cat Zingano 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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The Ultimate Fighter 17 – Episode 12 Review & Season Recap

Posted on April 10, 2013 by Oleg

In Episode 12, the semi-finals took place. With the score tied between teams at 6 wins each, Team Sonnen took both wins, sending two teammates to face off in the finale as Kevin Gastelum choked out Josh Samman in the first round, and Uriah Hall stopped Dylan Andrews with ground-and-pound in the second.

Final win tally is Team Sonnen 8, Team Jones 6.

A recap of all the season’s fights after the break.
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MMA Rankings Updated: 04/07/2013

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Jason

FightMatrix Program: InvictaFC (04-05-2013)

Posted on April 5, 2013 by Jason

Women Atomweight Championship (105)
[#1/#4DD] Jessica Penne (10-1-0, 104.9lb, -526) vs. [#7] Michelle Waterson (10-3-0, 104.7lb, +373)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Penne (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#6AW] Naho Sugiyama (8-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:20 of round 2
2012-04-28: W vs. [#4AW] Lisa Ellis (15-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3
2010-11-19: W vs. [#23AW] Amy Davis (3-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#8AW] Lacey Schuckman (8-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-01-21: W vs. [#11AW] Diana Rael (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:12 of round 1
2010-04-24: W vs. [NA] Masako Yoshida (16-17-5) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Penne 181, Michelle Waterson 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica Penne leads 1-0
.

Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#3/#9DD] Barb Honchak (7-2-0, 124.6lb, -132) vs. [#4] Vanessa Porto (15-5-0, 124.8lb, -102)

Last 3 Fights: Barb Honchak (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#19FLY] Aisling Daly (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: W vs. [#33FLY] Bethany Marshall (4-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 2
2011-10-01: W vs. [#25FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (15-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Porto (2-1-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#7FLY] Tara LaRosa (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: L vs. [#10BW] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [NA] Luana Teixeira (1-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:41 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Barb Honchak 181, Vanessa Porto 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Barb Honchak leads 1-0
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Cristiane Justino (10-1-0, 144.8lb, -2585) vs. [#13] Fiona Muxlow (6-2-0, 143.8lb, +1343)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#10FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2
2010-01-30: W vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Fiona Muxlow (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-10-27: W vs. [NA] Leanne Reid (0-1-0) via UD ()
2011-06-25: W vs. [NA] Deney Hayward (0-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 475, Fiona Muxlow 95
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0
.
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UFC on FuelTV 9 / Odds vs. Ratings (04-06-2013)

Posted on April 3, 2013 by Jason

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short notice scheduling.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Abedi vs. Yousef	Abedi (-139 / Very Small)	Abedi (1.59x / Moderate)	Abedi
Lawlor vs. Kuiper	Lawlor (-184 / Moderate)	Lawlor (1.52x / Moderate)	PASS
Alloway vs. LaFlare	LaFlare (-192 / Moderate)	Alloway (1.41x / Small)	PASS	#3
Brimage vs. McGregor	McGregor (-166 / Small)	McGregor (1.06x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#1
Amagov vs. Spang	Amagov (-166 / Small)	Amagov (2.41x / Large)	Amagov
Troeng vs. Cella	Troeng (-239 / Moderate)	Troeng (6.90x / Massive)	PASS	#3, #4
Johnson vs. Madadi	Johnson (-232 / Moderate)	Johnson (1.88x / Large)	PASS	#4
Peralta vs. Corassani	Peralta (-357 / Large)	Peralta (3.55x / Massive)	Peralta	#4
Brandao vs. Garza	Brandao (-212 / Moderate)	Garza (1.44x / Small)	Garza
Pickett vs. Easton	Pickett (-160 / Small)	Pickett (1.43x / Small)	PASS
Mitrione vs. De Fries	Mitrione (-328 / Large)	Mitrione (1.67x / Moderate)	De Fries
Pearson vs. Couture	Pearson (-402 / Large)	Pearson (1.08x / Pick ‘Em)	Couture
Mousasi vs. Latifi	Mousasi (-1190 / Massive)	Mousasi (2.58x / Large)	Latifi	#2, #4

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Abedi, Amagov, Peralta

Underdogs to consider:

Latifi over Mousasi – A true shot in the dark, but -1190 is ridiculous territory and Latifi is actually a quality opponent.
De Fries over Mitrione – A very small bet, as we think De Fries is a slight bargain.
Couture over Pearson – Couture is a great bargain and although not favored by the ratings, Pearson is no world beater himself.
Garza over Brandao – All things considered, Garza looks like a decent bet here.

The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 11 Review

Posted on April 3, 2013 by Oleg

In Episode 11, the remaining quarter-final matchups were again split between the teams:

Team Sonnen’s Uriah Hall knocked out ‘wild card’ Bubba McDaniel with a punch in the opening seconds of the very first round, while Team Jones’ Josh Samman forced a tapout from Jimmy Quinlan late in the first with ground-and-pound from back mount.

Current win tally is Team Sonnen 6, Team Jones 6.

The semi-final matchups are set:

Team Jones		Team Sonnen
Dylan Andrews	vs	Uriah Hall
Josh Samman	vs	Kelvin Gastelum

Quick recap of all the season’s fights after the break.
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FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel TV 9 (04-06-2013)

Posted on April 3, 2013 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Gegard Mousasi (33-3-2, -1190) vs. [#33] Ilir Latifi (7-2-0, +664)
Gegard Mousasi is the All-Time #16 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gegard Mousasi (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [*] Mike Kyle (19-9-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1
2011-12-17: W vs. [#43LHW] Ovince St. Preux (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-16: W vs. [*] Hiroshi Izumi (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:29 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#141LHW] Jorge Oliveira (5-3-1) via UD ()
2012-05-26: W vs. [#39LHW] Tony Lopez (32-10-0) via UD ()
2012-03-23: W vs. [NA] Denis Bogdanov (0-4-0) via Submission (Keylock) in ? of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gegard Mousasi 84, Ilir Latifi 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gegard Mousasi leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#44] Ross Pearson (14-6-0, -402) vs. [#53] Ryan Couture (6-1-0, +314)

Last 3 Fights: Ross Pearson (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#123LW] George Sotiropoulos (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 3
2012-06-22: L vs. [#6FW] Cub Swanson (19-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Junior Assuncao (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Couture (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#56LW] K.J. Noons (11-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#210LW] Joe Duarte (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#212LW] Conor Heun (9-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:52 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ross Pearson 112, Ryan Couture 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#34] Matt Mitrione (5-2-0, -328) vs. [#75] Philip De Fries (9-2-0, +261)

Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (1-2-0)
2012-12-15: L vs. [#11HW+] Roy Nelson (18-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2011-10-29: L vs. [#16HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-06-26: W vs. [#157HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Philip De Fries (1-2-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#29HW+] Todd Duffee (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 1
2012-08-04: W vs. [#247HW+] Oli Thompson (10-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:16 of round 2
2012-02-15: L vs. [#22HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matt Mitrione 112, Philip De Fries 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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