When Chimaev and Strickland were announced as the headline for UFC 328, thousands of casual fans logged into a sportsbook for the first time all year.
Many of them will end up on the losing side sooner or later.
The 96% Problem
Here’s the number that should set the tone for every wager you place: a 2025 UCSD/SMU/Maryland study of 717,724 US gamblers found 96% lost money over a five-year window from 2019 to 2023. Only 4% withdrew more than they deposited. That sample isn’t degens or whales – it’s regular bettors. Casuals.
Tools like ClearCasinos’ responsible gambling calculator exist for exactly this reason – to model what your bankroll actually survives at different stake sizes before you fire on a card.
For MMA fans, this hits harder than it does for NFL bettors. Fight cards run weekly. Each card has 10–13 fights. The temptation to fire on every prelim, fire a main-card parlay, and chase a bad start with a live bet on the co-main is enormous. The volume alone grinds most bankrolls into dust.
