With almost 3,000 birthdates now (nearly twice as many as before), we’re now going to see if fighters get more complacent with age.  This analysis looks at almost 28,000 fights, which I consider to be an acceptable sample set.

Furthermore, I am only analyzing wins with known outcome types and am considered a finish as a TKO, KO, DQ or SUB.

I thought the increased sample set would help matters, but the peak after 40 is larger than ever and even starts in the late 30s this time.  The logarithmic trendline still follows through with a consistent descent, but is nearly even at the end of the age range.

Are the older fighters likely fighting other older fighters and the eventual loser does not have the stamina to finish the fights?  Or are the older fighters more likely to take soft touches?

The sample set is now even more pronounced in that it is reflecting mainly the 21-31 year old fighters, so it’s as if the trendline knows (without me telling it) that the weight supports data on the left side moreso than the right.

Today, we look at the rate of stoppage losses and how it affects aging fighters.  The critics against older fighters competing should have a good time with this one.

First, a few notes.

• I included TKOs, KOs, and DQs in the stoppages.
• The “dotted line” represents the sample average.
• The “red line” represents the trendline — helping to smooth out the peaks and valleys.

The limits of the sample set shine through in this analysis, so I decided to toss the trend-line in.  For the younger fighters, the stoppages account for less than 25% of the losses, but notice how that nearly doubles (on a trend-line basis) once the fighters get into their 40s.

A little disclaimer before viewing the following results.

Obviously, the fighters we actually have birthdates are, for the most part, more “well known” than the fighters who we don’t have birthdates for.  So, in the following, you can’t compare to a 50% win percentage (you can’t anyway, because draws are included), you’ll have to compare to the sample average.  Having said that…

Win % by Age

In the above graph, the dotted line represents the sample average.  I’m very surprised at the almost impeccable trend downward, which starts all the way at the beginning when the fighters are in their teens.  The teenage group boasts an astounding 79.8% win percentage.

The spike after age 39 is undoubtedly a result of the few ageless wonders that we’ve seen in the recent years of MMA, carefully picking and choosing their spots rather than retiring.

This was spurred on by the Bloody Elbow/Fight Metric Research Contest.  I wonder if using FM data makes it ineligible?

Whatever the case is, here I am with another “stat geek” article for our readers’ consumption.   Some notes before I get into the bulk of it:

• 1,361 fighters have valid birthdates in the database (this is a relatively new data attribute for us).
• 4,317 pro fights have two fighters with a valid birthdate.
• 4,062 pro fights are used in this analysis (excluded draws and no contests) when both fighters need a valid birthdate.
• 18,898 pro fights are used in this analysis (excluded draws and no contests) when only one fighter needs a valid birthdate.

As you can see, not the largest sample set, but a decent amount nonetheless.

For starters, the average MMA fighter (at the time of the fight) was 10,198 days old.  If you divide this by 365.2425 (don’t hate on leap years), you get a yearly result of 27.92… so roughly 27 years and 11 months.

The winner, on average, was 126 days younger.  Although slim, this is pretty substantial considering the data set.

The oldest fighter in the analysis at the time of the fight?  Dan Severn.  He’s the oldest winner AND oldest loser.

The youngest fighter?  Nam Jin Jo.  Now, I’m not sure if this is legit, but he was only 5,346 days old (a little over 14 years and 7 months) when he beat Jin Woo Kim in a 2005 Spirit MC show.

The oldest combined age in a fight, by far, took place when Randy Couture beat Mark Coleman — nearly 92 years.

More to come…

BloodyElbow recently took a close look at prospects around the sport.  They (as far as I know) did not use set criteria like we do, but it is interesting to see that some fights are on both lists.  Furthermore, it will be interesting to re-visit this and see how many fighters are eventually picked up by known organizations.

The following prospects fulfilled the following criteria:

• Have not fought in any of the “Big 15” organizations.  Please see the FAQ for more info.
• Have no more than one defeat.
• Have five wins or more.
• Have fought in the last 450 days.

Sorted by current rating

Heavyweight+

1. Shamil Abdurahimov (12-1-0) [BE #2 HW]
2. Guram Gughenishvili (11-0-0) [BE #1 HW]
3. Chris Barnett (6-1-0)
4. Tony Johnson Jr. (5-1-0) [BE #3 HW]
5. Thiago Santos (8-1-0)

Keep Reading

Much is brought up in MMA and boxing about the creation of an additional division that splits the gargantuan Heavyweights from their slightly smaller counterparts.

One of the data elements that I have recently added and started populating the database with are official weigh-in weights.

The sample set so far is small, but in 166 non-draw official fights where both fighters weighed in at different weights, but above 210 (our Light Heavyweight limit), 87 were won by the lighter fighter, and 79 won by the heavier fighter (47.6%).

Now, here’s a strange one. When you allow for mismatches and include matches in which only one fighter had to weigh above 210, the total tally increases to 191 and the gap widens, with the heavier fighter only winning 86 (45.0%).

This should be interesting to revisit later down the road when more data is available.

For the record, across the board, the heavier fighter has won 51.5% of the time.

Hector Lombard just stopped Joe Doerksen in the first round.

With this win, Lombard enters the Top 10 All-Time list for most consecutive fights without a loss.  This is also tied for 2nd for active streaks.

Check out the full list (as of last weekend) in our Records & Stats page.

Includes counts for total pro fights, total pro fights w/ division info, and total pro fights w/ scorecard info.

• Best Submission/Win Ratio (Available upon next update)
• Most Weight Divisions Fought In (More details upon next update)

Another batch of fighters you’ve never heard of with quite an amazing distinction!

With more to come….

Check it out here.

We’ll be improving on this page in the near future.

Shortly, we’ll be debuting a page that will focus on objective statistics that, for the most part, are independent of the rating system.  We’ll start with records such as most wins, most fights, most wins without a loss (active streak) and maybe one or two more.

We’ll be looking for more ideas for statistics along these lines, so please feel free to throw your ideas our way.