2026 WHR Post #3
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Numbers are in the corner now. They watch every exchange, every takedown, every clinch. Predictive analytics — the use of historical and live fight performance data to forecast outcomes and reveal patterns — is moving from hobbyist projects into coaching rooms and broadcast desks. Fans, coaches and promoters pay attention. The landscape of MMA analytics is changing how fighters prepare, how matches are ranked, and how the sport is understood.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/mma/ufc/ufc-231-max-holloway-proves-hes-class/
Middleweight (185)
[#4][#4UFC] Sean Strickland (29-7-0, +228) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Anthony Hernandez (15-2-0, -283)
Sean Strickland is the All-Time #18 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Sean Strickland (1-2-0)
2025-02-08: L vs. [#7DD][#9P4P][#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-06-01: W vs. [#9MW] Paulo Costa (15-4-0) via SD (49-46, 50-45, 46-49)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#7DD][#9P4P][#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2025-08-09: W vs. [#16MW] Roman Dolidze (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:45 of round 4
2025-02-22: W vs. [#6MW] Brendan Allen (26-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#70MW] Michel Pereira (32-14-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:22 of round 5
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Anthony Hernandez | -283 | 70.78% | |
| Elo K170 | Anthony Hernandez | 2161.82 | +62.50 | 58.90% |
| Elo Modified | Anthony Hernandez | 2129.30 | +69.39 | 59.86% |
| Glicko-1 | Anthony Hernandez | 2228.09 | +90.54 | 62.74% |
| WHR | Anthony Hernandez | 2085.11 | +102.92 | 64.39% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sean Strickland 35.0, Anthony Hernandez 32.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Strickland 378, Anthony Hernandez 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Hernandez leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#22][#19UFC] Geoff Neal (16-7-0, -195) vs. [#30][#25UFC] Uros Medic (12-3-0, +161)
Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (1-2-0)
2025-08-16: L vs. [#8WW] Carlos Prates (23-7-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 4:59 of round 1
2024-10-26: W vs. [*] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:30 of round 1
2024-02-17: L vs. [#5WW] Ian Garry (17-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Uros Medic (2-1-0)
2025-11-08: W vs. [#39WW] Muslim Salikhov (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:03 of round 1
2025-08-09: W vs. [#584WW] Gilbert Urbina (7-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 1
2025-01-11: L vs. [#51WW] Punahele Soriano (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:31 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Geoff Neal | -195 | 63.30% | |
| Elo K170 | Geoff Neal | 1873.48 | +153.37 | 70.74% |
| Elo Modified | Geoff Neal | 1868.41 | +133.14 | 68.27% |
| Glicko-1 | Geoff Neal | 1946.47 | +154.43 | 70.87% |
| WHR | Geoff Neal | 1835.79 | +125.33 | 67.29% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Geoff Neal 35.5, Uros Medic 32.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Geoff Neal 189, Uros Medic 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#19][#14UFC] Dan Ige (19-10-0, +172) vs. [#24][#16UFC] Melquizael Costa (25-7-0, -212)
Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (1-2-0)
2025-07-19: L vs. [#10FW] Patricio Freire (37-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#41FW] Sean Woodson (13-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:12 of round 3
2024-10-26: L vs. [#7FW] Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Melquizael Costa (3-0-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#67FW] Morgan Charriere (21-12-1) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:14 of round 1
2025-05-17: W vs. [#59FW] Julian Erosa (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#113FW] Christian Rodriguez (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Melquizael Costa | -212 | 64.89% | |
| Elo K170 | Melquizael Costa | 1945.24 | +142.84 | 69.47% |
| Elo Modified | Melquizael Costa | 1925.28 | +140.47 | 69.18% |
| Glicko-1 | Melquizael Costa | 1965.58 | +132.86 | 68.24% |
| WHR | Melquizael Costa | 1789.59 | +15.43 | 52.22% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dan Ige 34.5, Melquizael Costa 29.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Ige 217, Melquizael Costa 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Small tweaks on the “safe” bet amounts. I didn’t really think that one through.
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Bantamweight (135)
[#6][#6UFC] Mario Bautista (16-3-0, -206) vs. [#17][#16UFC] Vinicius Oliveira (24-3-0, +164)
Last 3 Fights: Mario Bautista (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#14BW] Patrick Mix (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-10-05: W vs. [*] Jose Aldo (32-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Vinicius Oliveira (3-0-0)
2025-07-19: W vs. [#24BW] Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#40BW] Said Nurmagomedov (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#39BW] Ricky Simon (23-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mario Bautista | -206 | 63.99% | |
| Elo K170 | Mario Bautista | 2061.44 | +81.52 | 61.52% |
| Elo Modified | Mario Bautista | 2010.55 | +32.43 | 54.65% |
| Glicko-1 | Mario Bautista | 2046.24 | +20.44 | 52.94% |
| WHR | Mario Bautista | 1894.27 | +15.45 | 52.22% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mario Bautista 32.6, Vinicius Oliveira 30.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mario Bautista 105, Vinicius Oliveira 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#4][#4UFC] Kyoji Horiguchi (35-5-0, -351) vs. [*] Amir Albazi (17-2-0, +265)
Kyoji Horiguchi is the All-Time #18 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Amir Albazi is the All-Time #44 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Kyoji Horiguchi (3-0-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#14FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (18-3-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:18 of round 3
2024-12-31: W vs. [#112FLY] Nkazimulo Zulu (16-8-1) via UD ()
2024-06-09: W vs. [#11BW] Sergio Pettis (25-7-0) via UD ()
Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: L vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#8FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-12-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#133FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kyoji Horiguchi | -351 | 73.96% | |
| Elo K170 | Kyoji Horiguchi | 2131.83 | +322.80 | 86.51% |
| Elo Modified | Kyoji Horiguchi | 2091.75 | +319.43 | 86.28% |
| Glicko-1 | Kyoji Horiguchi | 2153.80 | +327.02 | 86.79% |
| WHR | Kyoji Horiguchi | 2063.39 | +361.86 | 88.92% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kyoji Horiguchi 35.3, Amir Albazi 32.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyoji Horiguchi 77, Amir Albazi 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#6][#5UFC] Jailton Almeida (22-4-0, -149) vs. [#23][#15UFC] Rizvan Kuniev (12-3-1, +122)
Jailton Almeida is the All-Time #48 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jailton Almeida (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#3HW+] Alexander Volkov (39-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-01-18: W vs. [#9HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:53 of round 1
2024-06-01: W vs. [#18HW+] Alexander Romanov (20-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Rizvan Kuniev (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2025-06-21: L vs. [#7HW+] Curtis Blaydes (19-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-20: W vs. [#195HW+] Hugo Cunha (8-3-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-04-07: NC vs. [#12HW+] Renan Ferreira (13-5-0)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jailton Almeida | -149 | 57.05% | |
| Elo K170 | Jailton Almeida | 1950.94 | +324.74 | 86.64% |
| Elo Modified | Jailton Almeida | 2021.91 | +316.10 | 86.05% |
| Glicko-1 | Jailton Almeida | 2131.64 | +331.45 | 87.08% |
| WHR | Jailton Almeida | 1989.07 | +170.11 | 72.70% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jailton Almeida 34.6, Rizvan Kuniev 33.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jailton Almeida 105, Rizvan Kuniev 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Back for 2026! There have been some tweaks (noted below by strikethroughs and blue text.)
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#11P4P][#1][#1UFC] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0, -159) vs. [#3][#3UFC] Diego Lopes (27-7-0, +131)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Diego Lopes is the All-Time #32 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#3FW] Diego Lopes (27-7-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#2P4P][#9DD][#1LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1P4P][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (2-1-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#12FW] Jean Silva (17-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2025-04-12: L vs. [#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#9FW] Brian Ortega (16-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alexander Volkanovski | -159 | 58.64% | |
| Elo K170 | Alexander Volkanovski | 2240.10 | +165.98 | 72.22% |
| Elo Modified | Alexander Volkanovski | 2213.98 | +156.81 | 71.15% |
| Glicko-1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 2255.57 | +116.07 | 66.11% |
| WHR | Alexander Volkanovski | 2182.54 | +161.54 | 71.71% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Volkanovski 37.3, Diego Lopes 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 294, Diego Lopes 140
Previous Match-up Record: Alexander Volkanovski leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#7][#6UFC] Benoit St. Denis (16-3-0, -324) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Dan Hooker (24-13-0, +252)
Dan Hooker is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#13LW] Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2025-09-06: W vs. [#48LW] Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-05-10: W vs. [#321LW] Kyle Prepolec (18-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:35 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (2-1-0)
2025-11-22: L vs. [#10DD][#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (23-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:34 of round 2
2024-08-17: W vs. [#9LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#27LW] Jalin Turner (15-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Benoit St. Denis | -324 | 72.89% | |
| Elo K170 | Benoit St. Denis | 2090.93 | +19.55 | 52.81% |
| Elo Modified | Benoit St. Denis | 2057.92 | +93.97 | 63.20% |
| Glicko-1 | Benoit St. Denis | 2163.12 | +208.22 | 76.83% |
| WHR | Benoit St. Denis | 1943.71 | +111.51 | 65.52% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Benoit St. Denis 30.1, Dan Hooker 35.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Benoit St. Denis 77, Dan Hooker 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#12][#10UFC] Rafael Fiziev (13-4-0, -115) vs. [#48][#26UFC] Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0, -107)
Rafael Fiziev is the All-Time #49 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (1-2-0)
2025-06-21: W vs. [#26LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (27-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#9LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#7LW] Benoit St. Denis (16-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-03-08: W vs. [#49LW] Bobby Green (33-17-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-11-16: W vs. [#297WW] James Llontop (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Rafael Fiziev | -115 | 50.85% | |
| Elo K170 | Rafael Fiziev | 1980.59 | +229.53 | 78.94% |
| Elo Modified | Rafael Fiziev | 1956.18 | +204.16 | 76.41% |
| Glicko-1 | Rafael Fiziev | 2023.82 | +213.10 | 77.32% |
| WHR | Rafael Fiziev | 1947.27 | +192.29 | 75.15% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rafael Fiziev 32.9, Mauricio Ruffy 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Fiziev 224, Mauricio Ruffy 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
Combat sports analysis has moved far beyond post-fight recaps and static rankings. Professionals now evaluate performance through live indicators, momentum shifts, and evolving statistical context. This shift reflects broader changes in how information is consumed and trusted under pressure.
Audiences and analysts alike want clarity while events unfold, not only after outcomes are finalized. Delayed interpretation weakens relevance because fight dynamics change rapidly. Over time, this expectation reshaped how combat sports data platforms present value.
For decision-makers, analysts, and media professionals, this change is structural. Insight now depends on how quickly systems surface meaningful signals rather than how thoroughly they summarize finished events.
Lightweight Championship (155)
[#5][#5UFC] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0, +191) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Paddy Pimblett (23-3-0, -235)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #9 ranked Lightweight and #49 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#12LW] Rafael Fiziev (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4LW] Max Holloway (27-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
2023-07-29: W vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#25LW] Michael Chandler (23-10-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:07 of round 3
2024-07-27: W vs. [#49LW] Bobby Green (33-17-1) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2023-12-16: W vs. [*] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Paddy Pimblett | -235 | 67.12% | |
| Elo K170 | Justin Gaethje | 2286.80 | +188.51 | 74.75% |
| Elo Modified | Justin Gaethje | 2234.53 | +168.55 | 72.52% |
| Glicko-1 | Justin Gaethje | 2284.76 | +131.23 | 68.04% |
| WHR | Paddy Pimblett | 2025.84 | +0.07 | 50.01% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Justin Gaethje 37.2, Paddy Pimblett 31.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 322, Paddy Pimblett 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#3][#3UFC] Sean OMalley (18-3-0, -206) vs. [#6][#6UFC] Yadong Song (22-9-1, +168)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Yadong Song is the All-Time #50 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (1-2-0)
2025-06-07: L vs. [#3DD][#7P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via Submission (North-South Choke) in 4:42 of round 3
2024-09-14: L vs. [#3DD][#7P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#12BW] Marlon Vera (24-11-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [*] Henry Cejudo (16-6-0) via TUD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#1DD][#4P4P][#1BW] Petr Yan (20-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#37BW] Chris Gutierrez (22-7-2) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Sean OMalley | -206 | 64.34% | |
| Elo K170 | Sean OMalley | 2094.90 | +55.55 | 57.93% |
| Elo Modified | Sean OMalley | 2059.31 | +30.67 | 54.40% |
| Glicko-1 | Sean OMalley | 2115.11 | +23.44 | 53.37% |
| WHR | Sean OMalley | 1949.75 | +35.98 | 55.16% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sean OMalley 31.2, Yadong Song 28.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 231, Yadong Song 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sean OMalley leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#8][#7UFC] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (16-2-0, -340) vs. [#13][#10UFC] Derrick Lewis (29-12-0, +260)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #28 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (2-1-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#23HW+] Shamil Gaziev (14-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:22 of round 1
2025-11-01: W vs. [#16HW+] Ante Delija (26-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:59 of round 1
2025-08-23: L vs. [#4HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (20-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2025-07-12: W vs. [#83HW+] Tallison Teixeira (8-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:35 of round 1
2024-05-11: W vs. [#26HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 3
2023-11-04: L vs. [#6HW+] Jailton Almeida (22-4-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | -340 | 73.55% | |
| Elo K170 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 1969.65 | +104.60 | 64.62% |
| Elo Modified | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 1969.93 | +115.38 | 66.02% |
| Glicko-1 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 2042.19 | +104.30 | 64.57% |
| WHR | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 1888.33 | +89.51 | 62.61% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 34.3, Derrick Lewis 40.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 63, Derrick Lewis 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Final stats from the WHR betting posts for 2025…
I’d have to analyze, but it feels like there are two areas for potential improvement:
We can never objectively beat the gamblers on properly handling fighters with previous non-MMA combat experience. This got us a couple of times in the past… Any ideas for handling this objectively?
The series will return either this week or next, assuming there are qualifying bets!
Predicting the result of a professional fight is never as simple as comparing records on paper. Some fans believe that a competitor riding a wave of recent victories has a natural advantage, while others trust detailed performance numbers collected over many years. The truth is that both momentum and statistics influence outcomes in different ways, and understanding how they interact gives a clearer view of what really decides a contest.
And now for the men’s biggest upsets of all-time. In case you missed the guidelines or the women’s list, click here!
#5 – (2268pts) [1-2-0] Tristan Yunker W(SUB) [18-3-0] Clay Guida
KOTC – Redemption on the River (February 17, 2006)
I remember this fight being one of the first big upsets that I noticed when Fight Matrix came online. I thought it was some kind of data error. We all know who Clay Guida is, while Yunker himself had a decent career, going 11-5 before the wheels came off and he started fighting bigger, well known opposition like Hector Lombard.
While completing our MMA Awards post for 2025, I started to wonder what the biggest upsets of all-time were. We have four different upset awards, each using different rules and/or rating systems.
In this post, we will consider all pro fights with only one exception — the winner must have a pro loss prior to the fight date. I will however, post some notable fights that would’ve otherwise qualified.
To determine the order, we will use ratings from the Elo and Glicko systems, total the pre-fight ratings for each fighter, then order by the difference.
Prepare to read about some fighters you’ve probably never heard of…
#5 – (1497pts) [3-4-0] Shana Dobson W(TKO) [9-1-0] Mariya Agapova
UFC on ESPN 15 (September 22, 2020)
I’m a little surprised that a UFC fight made the cut, especially in the women’s list. As far as the outcome, ESPN referred to it as a “historic upset”. From what I recall, Agapova came into the UFC with a ton of hype and a pretty nice 9-1 record. Dobson, at around +850, derailed the hype train.
