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Fight Matrix

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 24, 2025 by Jason

We have a pretty crazy dog parlay this week.  Time to get rich!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Garry vs Prates (04-26-2025)

Posted on April 21, 2025 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#7][#7UFC] Ian Garry (15-1-0, -128) vs. [#21][#18UFC] Carlos Prates (21-6-0, +108)
Ian Garry is the All-Time #47 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (2-1-0)
2024-12-07: L vs. [#4WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (19-0-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#16MW] Michael Page (23-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#11WW] Geoff Neal (16-6-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (3-0-0)
2024-11-09: W vs. [#30WW] Neil Magny (29-13-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:50 of round 1
2024-08-17: W vs. [#61WW] Jingliang Li (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:02 of round 2
2024-06-08: W vs. [#79WW] Charlie Radtke (10-4-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ian Garry -128 53.86%
Elo K170 Ian Garry 2081.70 +112.46 65.64%
Elo Modified Ian Garry 2024.92 +57.76 58.24%
Glicko-1 Carlos Prates 2065.62 +1.61 50.23%
WHR Ian Garry 1985.17 +19.55 52.81%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ian Garry 27.4, Carlos Prates 31.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Garry 140, Carlos Prates 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15][#12UFC] Anthony Smith (38-21-0, +348) vs. [#40][#26UFC] Mingyang Zhang (18-6-0, -472)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #32 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2024-12-07: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (15-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:46 of round 2
2024-06-29: L vs. [#9MW] Roman Dolidze (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#32LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#108MW] Osman Diaz (10-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:25 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#57LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (17-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1
2022-06-09: W vs. [#147LHW] George Tokkos (10-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mingyang Zhang -472 78.71%
Elo K170 Anthony Smith 1690.23 +47.58 56.81%
Elo Modified Anthony Smith 1701.29 +74.23 60.52%
Glicko-1 Anthony Smith 1731.85 +3.29 50.47%
WHR Mingyang Zhang 1688.21 +7.91 51.14%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Anthony Smith 36.7, Mingyang Zhang 26.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 140, Mingyang Zhang 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#16][#14UFC] Giga Chikadze (15-4-0, +148) vs. [#53][#34UFC] David Onama (13-2-0, -176)

Last 3 Fights: Giga Chikadze (1-2-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#7FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#45FW] Alex Caceres (21-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-01-15: L vs. [#21FW] Calvin Kattar (23-9-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)

Last 3 Fights: David Onama (3-0-0)
2024-11-16: W vs. [#383FW] Roberto Romero (8-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#81FW] Jonathan Pearce (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#62FW] Gabriel Santos (12-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds David Onama -176 61.26%
Elo K170 Giga Chikadze 1852.89 +98.51 63.81%
Elo Modified Giga Chikadze 1830.57 +45.40 56.50%
Glicko-1 Giga Chikadze 1880.41 +49.14 57.03%
WHR Giga Chikadze 1762.08 +7.22 51.04%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Giga Chikadze 36.6, David Onama 30.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Giga Chikadze 273, David Onama 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 10, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays in the green for the year.. let’s see if we can keep this going!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes (04-12-2025)

Posted on April 7, 2025 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#2][#2UFC] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0, -147) vs. [#5][#5UFC] Diego Lopes (26-6-0, +123)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#1FW][#1DD][#5P4P] Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1LW][#2DD][#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (27-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-07-08: W vs. [#8FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (3-0-0)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#7FW] Brian Ortega (16-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#22FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#86FW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:29 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkanovski -147 57.02%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkanovski 2183.05 +119.20 66.51%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkanovski 2141.50 +92.43 63.00%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkanovski 2192.63 +71.19 60.10%
WHR Alexander Volkanovski 2122.76 +174.10 73.15%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Volkanovski 36.5, Diego Lopes 30.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 420, Diego Lopes 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#11][#10UFC] Michael Chandler (23-9-0, +132) vs. [#17][#13UFC] Paddy Pimblett (22-3-0, -158)
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (1-2-0)
2024-11-16: L vs. [#3LW] Charles Oliveira (35-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#6LW] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2022-05-07: W vs. [#109LW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 0:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2024-07-27: W vs. [#41LW] Bobby Green (32-17-1) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2023-12-16: W vs. [#109LW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#53LW] Jared Gordon (20-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Paddy Pimblett -158 58.69%
Elo K170 Michael Chandler 2029.67 +21.86 53.14%
Elo Modified Michael Chandler 2002.44 +18.20 52.62%
Glicko-1 Michael Chandler 2069.17 +13.77 51.98%
WHR Paddy Pimblett 1964.27 +108.81 65.17%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Michael Chandler 38.9, Paddy Pimblett 30.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Chandler 147, Paddy Pimblett 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#19][#13UFC] Bryce Mitchell (17-2-0, +261) vs. [#26][#17UFC] Jean Silva (15-2-0, -337)

Last 3 Fights: Bryce Mitchell (2-1-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#519FW] Kron Gracie (5-3-0) via KO (Slam and Elbows) in 0:39 of round 3
2023-12-16: L vs. [#12FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:57 of round 1
2023-09-23: W vs. [#22FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jean Silva (3-0-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#267FW] Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:15 of round 1
2024-07-13: W vs. [#69LW] Drew Dober (27-15-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:28 of round 3
2024-06-29: W vs. [#29BW] Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:22 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jean Silva -337 73.57%
Elo K170 Bryce Mitchell 1864.26 +23.02 53.31%
Elo Modified Bryce Mitchell 1863.71 +6.71 50.97%
Glicko-1 Jean Silva 1929.13 +57.06 58.14%
WHR Jean Silva 1894.00 +101.27 64.18%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Bryce Mitchell 30.5, Jean Silva 28.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bryce Mitchell 126, Jean Silva 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

Current MMA Rankings Updated (04-06-2025)

Posted on April 6, 2025 by Jason

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 3, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Murphy (04-05-2025)

Posted on March 31, 2025 by Jason

Featherweight (145)
[*] Josh Emmett (19-4-0, +253) vs. [#11][#9UFC] Lerone Murphy (15-0-1, -325)
Josh Emmett is the All-Time #24 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#18FW] Bryce Mitchell (17-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:57 of round 1
2023-06-24: L vs. [#1FW][#1DD][#5P4P] Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#8FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#21FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#40FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#132FW] Joshua Culibao (12-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Lerone Murphy -325 72.96%
Elo K170 Lerone Murphy 2023.98 +5.24 50.75%
Elo Modified Josh Emmett 1973.98 +3.02 50.44%
Glicko-1 Josh Emmett 2006.23 +4.50 50.65%
WHR Lerone Murphy 1904.33 +51.21 57.32%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Josh Emmett 40.1, Lerone Murphy 33.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 476, Lerone Murphy 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#32][#21UFC] Joanderson Brito (17-4-1, -217) vs. [#48][#30UFC] Pat Sabatini (19-5-0, +176)

Last 3 Fights: Joanderson Brito (2-1-0)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#38FW] William Gomis (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#72FW] Jack Shore (17-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:35 of round 2
2023-11-18: W vs. [#79FW] Jonathan Pearce (14-7-0) via Submission (Ninja Choke) in 3:54 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Pat Sabatini (2-1-0)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#79FW] Jonathan Pearce (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:06 of round 1
2023-11-11: L vs. [#5FW] Diego Lopes (26-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2023-06-17: W vs. [#143FW] Lucas Almeida (15-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:48 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joanderson Brito -217 65.38%
Elo K170 Joanderson Brito 1813.40 +79.91 61.30%
Elo Modified Joanderson Brito 1854.18 +88.94 62.53%
Glicko-1 Joanderson Brito 1925.28 +107.78 65.03%
WHR Joanderson Brito 1803.72 +69.48 59.87%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Joanderson Brito 30.1, Pat Sabatini 34.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanderson Brito 189, Pat Sabatini 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joanderson Brito leads 3-1
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#114][#53UFC] Chang Ho Lee (10-1-0, -178) vs. [#323][#77UFC] Cortavious Romious (9-3-0, +146)

Last 3 Fights: Chang Ho Lee (3-0-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#115BW] Long Xiao (26-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-27: W vs. [#377FW] Zhawupasi Daermisi (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:35 of round 3
2023-05-28: W vs. [#1339FW] Rana Rudra Pratap Singh (11-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Cortavious Romious (2-1-0)
2024-11-09: L vs. [#227BW] Gaston Bolanos (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2024-08-20: W vs. [#289BW] Michael Imperato (12-7-0) via UD ()
2024-04-20: W vs. [NA] Erik Vo (15-34-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chang Ho Lee -178 61.16%
Elo K170 Chang Ho Lee 1622.74 +357.78 88.69%
Elo Modified Chang Ho Lee 1572.40 +229.09 78.90%
Glicko-1 Chang Ho Lee 1576.86 +256.23 81.38%
WHR Chang Ho Lee 1549.59 +264.76 82.12%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Chang Ho Lee 30.9, Cortavious Romious 31.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chang Ho Lee 287, Cortavious Romious 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on March 27, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg (03-29-2025)

Posted on March 24, 2025 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#3][#8DD][#3UFC] Brandon Moreno (22-8-2, -201) vs. [#10][#8UFC] Steve Erceg (12-3-0, +166)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-2-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#9FLY] Amir Albazi (17-2-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#2FLY][#7DD] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1FLY][#5DD][#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (1-2-0)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#5FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 1
2024-05-04: L vs. [#1FLY][#5DD][#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#86FLY] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:26 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brandon Moreno -201 63.98%
Elo K170 Brandon Moreno 1982.13 +318.02 86.18%
Elo Modified Brandon Moreno 2012.46 +349.29 88.19%
Glicko-1 Brandon Moreno 2112.16 +429.12 92.20%
WHR Brandon Moreno 2020.54 +356.65 88.63%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Moreno 31.3, Steve Erceg 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 147, Steve Erceg 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Moreno leads 2-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#53][#29UFC] Drew Dober (27-14-0, +104) vs. [#125][#53UFC] Manuel Torres (15-3-0, -125)

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (1-2-0)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#24FW] Jean Silva (15-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:28 of round 3
2024-02-03: L vs. [#9LW] Renato Carneiro (20-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#299LW] Ricky Glenn (22-9-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Manuel Torres (2-1-0)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#18LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1
2024-02-24: W vs. [#126LW] Chris Duncan (13-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
2023-06-17: W vs. [#122LW] Nikolas Motta (15-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:50 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Manuel Torres -125 53.12%
Elo K170 Drew Dober 1664.32 +10.78 51.55%
Elo Modified Drew Dober 1663.93 +16.93 52.43%
Glicko-1 Drew Dober 1717.82 +26.81 53.85%
WHR Drew Dober 1705.58 +20.44 52.94%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Drew Dober 36.4, Manuel Torres 30.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Drew Dober 259, Manuel Torres 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#17][#15UFC] Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0, +268) vs. [#23][#19UFC] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0, -344)
Kelvin Gastelum is the All-Time #29 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#37WW] Daniel Rodriguez (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#2WW][#10P4P] Sean Brady (18-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:43 of round 3
2023-04-08: W vs. [#24MW] Chris Curtis (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Pyfer (2-1-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#59MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
2024-02-10: L vs. [#19MW] Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#109MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-7-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joe Pyfer -344 74.03%
Elo K170 Kelvin Gastelum 1926.26 +200.23 76.00%
Elo Modified Kelvin Gastelum 1918.73 +162.04 71.76%
Glicko-1 Kelvin Gastelum 1963.95 +109.73 65.29%
WHR Kelvin Gastelum 1832.08 +89.87 62.65%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kelvin Gastelum 33.4, Joe Pyfer 28.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 280, Joe Pyfer 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on March 20, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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