Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) is a sport driven by precision, performance, and historical achievements. Statistics and records play a vital role in shaping fan engagement, sports betting, and fighter analysis. Whether it is the number of wins, finishes, or knockout records, MMA stats provide a comprehensive view of the sport’s dynamics and legacy.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley (12-14-2024)
Welterweight (170)
[#5] Colby Covington (17-4-0, +212) vs. [#9] Joaquin Buckley (20-6-0, -264)
Colby Covington is the All-Time #8 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#2WW/#10P4P] Leon Edwards (22-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-03-05: W vs. [*] Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 49-46)
2021-11-06: L vs. [#3WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#19WW] Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:17 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#80WW] Nursulton Ruziboev (34-9-2) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#18WW] Vicente Luque (23-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Joaquin Buckley | -264 | 69.35% | |
| Elo K170 | Colby Covington | 2244.12 | +162.96 | 71.87% |
| Elo Modified | Colby Covington | 2179.50 | +135.34 | 68.55% |
| Glicko-1 | Colby Covington | 2244.79 | +92.60 | 63.02% |
| WHR | Colby Covington | 1960.38 | +28.86 | 54.14% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Colby Covington 364, Joaquin Buckley 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#40] Cub Swanson (30-14-0, +132) vs. [#44] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0, -159)
Cub Swanson is the All-Time #20 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (1-2-0)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#39FW] Andre Fili (24-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-08-12: W vs. [*] Hakeem Dawodu (13-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-15: L vs. [#21BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-6-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:19 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Billy Quarantillo (1-2-0)
2024-03-23: L vs. [#25FW] Youssef Zalal (16-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 2
2023-08-05: W vs. [*] Damon Jackson (23-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#37FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via KO (Knee) in 2:37 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Billy Quarantillo | -159 | 58.75% | |
| Elo K170 | Cub Swanson | 1678.39 | +57.33 | 58.18% |
| Elo Modified | Cub Swanson | 1726.26 | +89.49 | 62.60% |
| Glicko-1 | Cub Swanson | 1764.50 | +100.94 | 64.13% |
| WHR | Cub Swanson | 1655.95 | +52.07 | 57.44% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 168, Billy Quarantillo 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#13] Manel Kape (19-7-0, -302) vs. [#21] Bruno Silva (14-6-2, +239)
Manel Kape is the All-Time #34 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (2-1-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#7FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (13-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#98FLY] Felipe dos Santos (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-12-17: W vs. [*] David Dvorak (20-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (3-0-0)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#38FLY] Cody Durden (17-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#202BW] Tyson Nam (23-14-1) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:23 of round 2
2021-05-22: W vs. [*] Victor Rodriguez (5-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Manel Kape | -302 | 71.80% | |
| Elo K170 | Manel Kape | 1739.07 | +45.52 | 56.51% |
| Elo Modified | Manel Kape | 1748.75 | +64.63 | 59.20% |
| Glicko-1 | Manel Kape | 1810.78 | +61.47 | 58.75% |
| WHR | Manel Kape | 1735.25 | +34.18 | 54.90% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manel Kape 140, Bruno Silva 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Manel Kape leads 1-0
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
In the green so far….
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura (12-07-2024)
Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#2P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0, -270) vs. [#24BW] Kai Asakura (21-4-0, +218)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #4 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#8FLY] Steve Erceg (12-3-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#3FLY/#7DD] Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Kai Asakura (2-1-0)
2023-12-31: W vs. [#74FW] Juan Archuleta (29-7-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 3:20 of round 2
2023-05-06: W vs. [#83BW] Yuki Motoya (36-12-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:25 of round 3
2021-12-31: L vs. [#12FLY] Hiromasa Ougikubo (27-8-2) via UD ()
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alexandre Pantoja | -270 | 69.88% | |
| Elo K170 | Alexandre Pantoja | 2142.99 | +112.56 | 65.66% |
| Elo Modified | Alexandre Pantoja | 2052.29 | +81.53 | 61.52% |
| Glicko-1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 2109.18 | +81.67 | 61.54% |
| WHR | Alexandre Pantoja | 1985.39 | +107.26 | 64.96% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 217, Kai Asakura 342
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#5] Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0, -378) vs. [#8] Ian Garry (15-0-0, +287)
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the All-Time #31 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Ian Garry is the All-Time #45 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Shavkat Rakhmonov (3-0-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#19WW] Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:56 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#12WW] Geoff Neal (16-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3
2022-06-25: W vs. [#32WW] Neil Magny (29-13-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:58 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (3-0-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#17WW] Michael Page (22-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#12WW] Geoff Neal (16-6-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#32WW] Neil Magny (29-13-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Shavkat Rakhmonov | -378 | 75.37% | |
| Elo K170 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 2224.04 | +75.57 | 60.71% |
| Elo Modified | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 2181.75 | +101.44 | 64.20% |
| Glicko-1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 2296.22 | +192.57 | 75.19% |
| WHR | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 2181.58 | +211.63 | 77.18% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shavkat Rakhmonov 357, Ian Garry 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[*] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0, -324) vs. [#4] Alexander Volkov (38-10-0, +253)
Ciryl Gane is the All-Time #20 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #27 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ciryl Gane (2-1-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#7HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 2
2023-03-04: L vs. [#1HW+/#8P4P] Jon Jones (28-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:04 of round 1
2022-09-03: W vs. [#16HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (3-0-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#6HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#16HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-8-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 4:37 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#20HW+] Alexander Romanov (18-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Ciryl Gane | -324 | 72.95% | |
| Elo K170 | Ciryl Gane | 2135.11 | +32.94 | 54.73% |
| Elo Modified | Ciryl Gane | 2129.33 | +21.62 | 53.11% |
| Glicko-1 | Ciryl Gane | 2218.49 | +14.14 | 52.03% |
| WHR | Alexander Volkov | 2062.31 | +0.80 | 50.12% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ciryl Gane 462, Alexander Volkov 168
Previous Match-up Record: Ciryl Gane leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ciryl Gane leads 3-2
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Fight Matrix Program – PFL 2024 Championships (11-29-2024)
Featherweight (145)
[#16] Timur Khizriev (17-0-0, -303) vs. [#17] Brendan Loughnane (29-5-0, +230)
Last 3 Fights: Timur Khizriev (3-0-0)
2024-08-23: W vs. [#25FW] Gabriel Braga (14-2-0) via SD ()
2024-06-28: W vs. [#46FW] Enrique Barzola (22-9-2) via UD ()
2024-04-19: W vs. [#111FW] Brett Johns (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Brendan Loughnane (3-0-0)
2024-08-23: W vs. [#27FW] Kai Kamaka III (14-6-1) via SD ()
2024-06-28: W vs. [#102FW] Justin Gonzales (14-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:34 of round 2
2024-04-19: W vs. [#59FW] Pedro Carvalho (13-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:26 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Timur Khizriev | -303 | 71.27% | |
| Elo K170 | Timur Khizriev | 2007.52 | +40.86 | 55.85% |
| Elo Modified | Timur Khizriev | 1940.31 | +9.23 | 51.33% |
| Glicko-1 | Brendan Loughnane | 1952.61 | +17.86 | 52.57% |
| WHR | Timur Khizriev | 1902.04 | +70.67 | 60.03% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Timur Khizriev 98, Brendan Loughnane 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#5] Taila Santos (22-3-0, +265) vs. [#18] Dakota Ditcheva (13-0-0, -364)
Last 3 Fights: Taila Santos (3-0-0)
2024-08-02: W vs. [#9FLY] Liz Carmouche (22-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-13: W vs. [#30FLY] Jena Bishop (7-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-04-04: W vs. [#52FLY] Ilara Joanne (12-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Dakota Ditcheva (3-0-0)
2024-08-02: W vs. [#30FLY] Jena Bishop (7-2-0) via TKO (Front Kick to the Body and Punch) in 3:54 of round 1
2024-06-13: W vs. [#107FLY] Chelsea Hackett (4-3-1) via TKO (Punch to the Body) in 3:22 of round 1
2024-04-04: W vs. [#99FLY] Lisa Mauldin (6-5-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 3:54 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Dakota Ditcheva | -364 | 74.11% | |
| Elo K170 | Taila Santos | 1826.74 | +211.90 | 77.20% |
| Elo Modified | Taila Santos | 1819.02 | +157.48 | 71.23% |
| Glicko-1 | Taila Santos | 1851.42 | +141.57 | 69.31% |
| WHR | Taila Santos | 1736.73 | +128.72 | 67.72% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Taila Santos 119, Dakota Ditcheva 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#9] Impa Kasanganay (18-4-0, -165) vs. [#13] Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov (24-7-1, +131)
Last 3 Fights: Impa Kasanganay (3-0-0)
2024-08-16: W vs. [#20LHW] Joshua Silveira (13-4-0) via UD ()
2024-06-21: W vs. [#65LHW] Jakob Nedoh (8-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2024-04-12: W vs. [#31LHW] Alex Polizzi (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:29 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov (3-0-0)
2024-08-16: W vs. [#21LHW] Rob Wilkinson (19-3-0) via UD ()
2024-06-21: W vs. [#161LHW] Simon Biyong (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-12: W vs. [#65LHW] Jakob Nedoh (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Impa Kasanganay | -165 | 58.98% | |
| Elo K170 | Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov | 1972.58 | +49.14 | 57.03% |
| Elo Modified | Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov | 1986.20 | +16.98 | 52.44% |
| Glicko-1 | Impa Kasanganay | 2071.76 | +65.39 | 59.30% |
| WHR | Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov | 1930.01 | +25.16 | 53.61% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Impa Kasanganay 105, Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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All-Time Greatest Bantamweights Through History
This past week’s UFC main event was important for the Bantamweight division. What does the all-time picture look like as we walk through the history?
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- This is entirely different than our All-Time Rankings, and much more simplistic. Fewer edge cases are handled here.
- Quarterly ranking data gathered from Generated Historical Rankings. Snapshots are made on the first of the quarter.
- 10 points assigned for #1 rank, 6 points for #2, 4 points for #3, 3 points for #4, 2 points for #5, 1 point for #6-10.
- Weak divisional depth penalty applied to above point totals where necessary.
- Fighter gets no points for the quarter if they did not win, draw, or have close loss (SD,MD) in the division in the previous 450 days.
- Fighter no longer accumulates points after retiring.
- Date format (lower right) is year_month.
All-Time Greatest Heavyweights Through History
Dana… are you sure Stipe is the best of all-time?
- This is entirely different than our All-Time Rankings, and much more simplistic. Fewer edge cases are handled here.
- Quarterly Heavyweight ranking data gathered from Generated Historical Rankings. Snapshots are made on the first of the quarter.
- 10 points assigned for #1 rank, 6 points for #2, 4 points for #3, 3 points for #4, 2 points for #5, 1 point for #6-10.
- Weak divisional depth penalty applied to above point totals, with a maximum penalty of 33.3%.
- Fighter gets no points for the quarter if they did not win or draw in the division in the 450 days previous to beginning of the quarter.
- Yes, there are many “open weight” fighters present in the early years.
- Date format (lower right) is year_month.
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Been on a bit of a skid…. but here we go!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo (11-16-2024)
Bantamweight (135)
[#4] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1, +218) vs. [#5] Petr Yan (17-5-0, -272)
Petr Yan is the All-Time #9 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Deiveson Figueiredo (3-0-0)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#9BW] Marlon Vera (24-10-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#31BW] Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2
2023-12-02: W vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#12BW] Yadong Song (21-9-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#1BW/#5DD/#6P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Petr Yan | -272 | 69.92% | |
| Elo K170 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 2155.09 | +147.41 | 70.03% |
| Elo Modified | Deiveson Figueiredo | 2120.13 | +51.29 | 57.33% |
| Glicko-1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 2192.42 | +59.95 | 58.54% |
| WHR | Deiveson Figueiredo | 2017.27 | +26.21 | 53.76% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Deiveson Figueiredo 112, Petr Yan 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#3/#9DD/#10P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-4-0, -201) vs. [#7] Tabatha Ricci (11-2-0, +165)
Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (25-3-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-45)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#11FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [#6SW] Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)
Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#11SW] Angela Hill (17-14-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#5SW] Tecia Pennington (14-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#12SW] Lupita Godinez (12-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Xiaonan Yan | -201 | 63.89% | |
| Elo K170 | Xiaonan Yan | 1767.49 | +76.09 | 60.78% |
| Elo Modified | Xiaonan Yan | 1758.65 | +56.11 | 58.00% |
| Glicko-1 | Xiaonan Yan | 1720.49 | +24.72 | 53.55% |
| WHR | Xiaonan Yan | 1637.38 | +36.91 | 55.29% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Xiaonan Yan 224, Tabatha Ricci 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#63] Mingyang Zhang (17-6-0, -316) vs. [#69] Osman Diaz (9-2-0, +245)
Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#105LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (16-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1
2022-06-09: W vs. [#121LHW] George Tokkos (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2021-04-30: W vs. [NA] Changsheng Huo (2-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Osman Diaz (2-1-0)
2024-05-17: W vs. [#213LHW] Bevon Lewis (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:24 of round 2
2024-03-08: W vs. [#90LHW] Chuck Campbell (7-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2022-07-26: L vs. [#21MW] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mingyang Zhang | -316 | 72.37% | |
| Elo K170 | Mingyang Zhang | 1582.94 | +100.61 | 64.09% |
| Elo Modified | Mingyang Zhang | 1582.51 | +74.07 | 60.50% |
| Glicko-1 | Mingyang Zhang | 1657.38 | +104.18 | 64.56% |
| WHR | Osman Diaz | 1604.80 | +42.56 | 56.09% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mingyang Zhang 280, Osman Diaz 190
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Some interesting picks this week…
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic (11-16-2024)
Heavyweight Championship (265)
[*] Jon Jones (27-1-0, -687) vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-4-0, +465)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #31 ranked Heavyweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Stipe Miocic is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#3HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:04 of round 1
2020-02-08: W vs. [#10LHW] Dominick Reyes (13-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#34HW+] Thiago Santos (22-13-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (2-1-0)
2021-03-27: L vs. [#2HW+/#9P4P] Francis Ngannou (18-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2
2020-08-15: W vs. [*] Daniel Cormier (22-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2019-08-17: W vs. [*] Daniel Cormier (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jon Jones | -687 | 83.14% | |
| Elo K170 | Jon Jones | 2462.88 | +195.16 | 75.46% |
| Elo Modified | Jon Jones | 2399.49 | +154.72 | 70.90% |
| Glicko-1 | Jon Jones | 2500.75 | +150.06 | 70.34% |
| WHR | Jon Jones | 2262.89 | +141.53 | 69.31% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 623, Stipe Miocic 1330
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Stipe Miocic leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#3] Charles Oliveira (34-10-0, -254) vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0, +205)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #7 ranked Lightweight and #36 ranked Absolute fighter.
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (1-2-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#12LW] Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2022-10-22: L vs. [#1LW/#2DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (26-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (1-2-0)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#6LW] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2022-05-07: W vs. [#107WW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 0:17 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Charles Oliveira | -254 | 68.63% | |
| Elo K170 | Charles Oliveira | 2263.99 | +192.02 | 75.13% |
| Elo Modified | Charles Oliveira | 2274.77 | +241.48 | 80.06% |
| Glicko-1 | Charles Oliveira | 2383.15 | +289.98 | 84.15% |
| WHR | Charles Oliveira | 2180.90 | +312.77 | 85.82% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 217, Michael Chandler 735
Previous Match-up Record: Charles Oliveira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Charles Oliveira leads 4-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#23] Paul Craig (17-8-1, +672) vs. [#65] Bo Nickal (6-0-0, -1136)
Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (1-2-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#8MW] Caio Borralho (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
2023-11-18: L vs. [#11MW] Brendan Allen (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
2023-07-22: W vs. [#24MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:40 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Bo Nickal (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#93MW] Cody Brundage (10-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#495WW] Valentine Woodburn (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#207MW] Jamie Pickett (13-11-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:54 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Bo Nickal | -1136 | 87.65% | |
| Elo K170 | Paul Craig | 1740.81 | +161.64 | 71.72% |
| Elo Modified | Paul Craig | 1762.82 | +102.02 | 64.28% |
| Glicko-1 | Paul Craig | 1786.76 | +177.19 | 73.50% |
| WHR | Paul Craig | 1723.30 | +224.91 | 78.49% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 196, Bo Nickal 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Last week was profitable again!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates (11-09-2024)
Welterweight (170)
[#27] Neil Magny (29-12-0, +456) vs. [#45] Carlos Prates (20-6-0, -660)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #39 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (1-2-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#15WW] Michael Morales (17-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:39 of round 1
2024-01-20: W vs. [#81WW] Mike Malott (11-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 3
2023-08-19: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (15-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (3-0-0)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#61WW] Jingliang Li (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:02 of round 2
2024-06-08: W vs. [#203WW] Charlie Radtke (9-4-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:47 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#157WW] Trevin Giles (16-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:03 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Carlos Prates | -660 | 82.83% | |
| Elo K170 | Carlos Prates | 1897.23 | +53.88 | 57.69% |
| Elo Modified | Carlos Prates | 1909.10 | +88.61 | 62.48% |
| Glicko-1 | Carlos Prates | 2006.91 | +166.86 | 72.32% |
| WHR | Carlos Prates | 1916.29 | +180.82 | 73.90% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 77, Carlos Prates 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#30] Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0, +112) vs. [#31] Miles Johns (16-2-0, -133)
Cody Garbrandt is the All-Time #13 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Cody Garbrandt (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2
2023-12-16: W vs. [#309BW] Brian Kelleher (24-16-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:42 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#100BW] Trevin Jones (15-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Miles Johns (3-0-0)
2024-06-15: W vs. [#52BW] Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#46BW] Cody Gibson (21-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#203BW] Dan Argueta (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Miles Johns | -133 | 54.75% | |
| Elo K170 | Miles Johns | 1857.19 | +94.16 | 63.23% |
| Elo Modified | Miles Johns | 1828.28 | +78.08 | 61.05% |
| Glicko-1 | Miles Johns | 1852.41 | +58.73 | 58.37% |
| WHR | Miles Johns | 1791.94 | +155.62 | 71.01% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Garbrandt 210, Miles Johns 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#17] Denise Gomes (9-3-0, -446) vs. [#31] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-8-0, +327)
Last 3 Fights: Denise Gomes (2-1-0)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#44FLY] Eduarda Moura (10-1-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#10SW] Angela Hill (17-14-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#42SW] Yazmin Jauregui (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#8SW] Iasmin Lucindo (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#113SW] Diana Belbita (15-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#37SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (11-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Denise Gomes | -446 | 77.71% | |
| Elo K170 | Denise Gomes | 1551.78 | +92.85 | 63.05% |
| Elo Modified | Denise Gomes | 1527.22 | +62.90 | 58.96% |
| Glicko-1 | Denise Gomes | 1527.15 | +96.54 | 63.54% |
| WHR | Denise Gomes | 1496.94 | +142.76 | 69.46% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Denise Gomes 154, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Both parlays hit last week!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi (11-02-2024)
Flyweight (125)
[#3] Brandon Moreno (21-8-2, -159) vs. [*] Amir Albazi (17-1-0, +131)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Amir Albazi is the All-Time #42 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#4BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (3-0-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#4FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-11-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#49FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Francisco Figueiredo (13-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Brandon Moreno | -159 | 58.64% | |
| Elo K170 | Brandon Moreno | 1898.72 | +6.45 | 50.93% |
| Elo Modified | Brandon Moreno | 1965.97 | +147.38 | 70.02% |
| Glicko-1 | Brandon Moreno | 2075.69 | +212.19 | 77.23% |
| WHR | Brandon Moreno | 1986.22 | +183.94 | 74.25% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 252, Amir Albazi 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Moreno leads 2-1
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#4] Rose Namajunas (13-6-0, +106) vs. [#5] Erin Blanchfield (12-2-0, -128)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #6 ranked Women’s fighter.
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #45 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#16FLY] Tracy Cortez (11-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#12FLY] Amanda Ribas (12-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD/#4P4P] Manon Fiorot (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (2-1-0)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD/#4P4P] Manon Fiorot (12-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#6FLY] Taila Santos (22-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#10FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Erin Blanchfield | -128 | 53.63% | |
| Elo K170 | Rose Namajunas | 1890.84 | +90.95 | 62.80% |
| Elo Modified | Rose Namajunas | 1850.87 | +46.65 | 56.67% |
| Glicko-1 | Rose Namajunas | 1839.32 | +3.74 | 50.54% |
| WHR | Rose Namajunas | 1776.05 | +55.17 | 57.87% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 112, Erin Blanchfield 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rose Namajunas leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#13] Derrick Lewis (28-12-0, +144) vs. [#56] Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0, -174)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #27 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#27HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 3
2023-11-04: L vs. [#9HW+] Jailton Almeida (21-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#25HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Jhonata Diniz (3-0-0)
2024-08-10: W vs. [#73HW+] Karl Williams (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#137HW+] Austen Lane (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 2
2023-09-12: W vs. [#100HW+] Eduardo Neves (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jhonata Diniz | -174 | 60.77% | |
| Elo K170 | Derrick Lewis | 1844.56 | +230.49 | 79.03% |
| Elo Modified | Derrick Lewis | 1848.44 | +178.08 | 73.59% |
| Glicko-1 | Derrick Lewis | 1903.66 | +234.52 | 79.42% |
| WHR | Derrick Lewis | 1773.72 | +215.45 | 77.56% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 175, Jhonata Diniz 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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