MMA Statistics – Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes (09-27-2025)

Posted on September 22, 2025 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5][#4UFC] Carlos Ulberg (13-1-0, -251) vs. [#9][#8UFC] Dominick Reyes (15-4-0, +204)
Carlos Ulberg is the All-Time #44 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Dominick Reyes is the All-Time #36 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Ulberg (3-0-0)
2025-03-22: W vs. [#6LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#13LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#21LHW] Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (3-0-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#22LHW] Nikita Krylov (30-11-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:24 of round 1
2024-12-07: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:46 of round 2
2024-06-08: W vs. [#18LHW] Dustin Jacoby (21-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Carlos Ulberg	-251		68.49%
Elo K170	Carlos Ulberg	2063.01	+58.20	58.30%
Elo Modified	Carlos Ulberg	2085.35	+106.19	64.82%
Glicko-1	Carlos Ulberg	2133.25	+61.06	58.70%
WHR	Carlos Ulberg	2002.34	+84.02	61.86%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Carlos Ulberg 34.8, Dominick Reyes 35.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Ulberg 189, Dominick Reyes 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlos Ulberg leads 2-1
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Featherweight (145)
[#166][#60UFC] Jack Jenkins (13-4-0, -284) vs. [#329][#73UFC] Ramon Taveras (10-3-0, +229)

Last 3 Fights: Jack Jenkins (1-2-0)
2025-02-08: L vs. [#57FW] Gabriel Santos (12-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3
2024-08-17: W vs. [#531FW] Herbert Burns (11-6-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 0:48 of round 3
2023-09-09: L vs. [#33FW] Jose Mariscal (18-6-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 3:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ramon Taveras (2-1-0)
2024-12-14: L vs. [#32BW] Davey Grant (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#62BW] Serhiy Sidey (12-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-10: W vs. [#547FW] Cortavious Romious (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jack Jenkins	-284		70.87%
Elo K170	Jack Jenkins	1562.22	+120.73	66.71%
Elo Modified	Jack Jenkins	1576.13	+130.95	68.00%
Glicko-1	Jack Jenkins	1574.08	+128.49	67.69%
WHR	Jack Jenkins	1538.84	+166.52	72.28%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jack Jenkins 32.5, Ramon Taveras 31.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Jenkins 231, Ramon Taveras 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#34][#21UFC] Jimmy Crute (13-4-2, -185) vs. [#48][#25UFC] Ivan Erslan (14-5-0, +152)

Last 3 Fights: Jimmy Crute (1-1-1)
2025-07-19: W vs. [#52LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-9-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:42 of round 1
2025-02-08: D vs. [#47LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2023-07-08: L vs. [#21LHW] Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:55 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ivan Erslan (1-2-0)
2025-05-10: L vs. [#42LHW] Navajo Stirling (7-0-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#29LHW] Ion Cutelaba (19-11-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-24: W vs. [*] Bogdan Gnidko (10-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:54 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jimmy Crute	-185		62.06%
Elo K170	Jimmy Crute	1631.29	+200.33	76.01%
Elo Modified	Jimmy Crute	1677.09	+156.50	71.11%
Glicko-1	Jimmy Crute	1696.32	+120.18	66.64%
WHR	Jimmy Crute	1638.32	+94.13	63.22%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jimmy Crute 29.5, Ivan Erslan 33.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jimmy Crute 70, Ivan Erslan 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on September 18, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on September 11, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva (09-13-2025)

Posted on September 9, 2025 by Jason

Featherweight (145)
[#5][#5UFC] Diego Lopes (26-7-0, +224) vs. [#16][#11UFC] Jean Silva (16-2-0, -279)
Diego Lopes is the All-Time #49 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (2-1-0)
2025-04-12: L vs. [#6DD][#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#8FW] Brian Ortega (16-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#19FW] Dan Ige (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jean Silva (3-0-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#16BW] Bryce Mitchell (18-3-0) via Submission (Ninja Choke) in 3:52 of round 2
2025-02-22: W vs. [#283FW] Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:15 of round 1
2024-07-13: W vs. [#78LW] Drew Dober (27-15-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:28 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jean Silva	-279		70.46%
Elo K170	Diego Lopes	2006.94	+75.00	60.63%
Elo Modified	Diego Lopes	1991.72	+55.63	57.94%
Glicko-1	Diego Lopes	2058.65	+46.30	56.63%
WHR	Jean Silva	1964.33	+35.44	55.08%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Diego Lopes 30.7, Jean Silva 28.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diego Lopes 154, Jean Silva 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#14][#13UFC] Rob Font (22-8-0, -183) vs. [#91][#48UFC] David Martinez (12-1-0, +151)
Rob Font is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (2-1-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#28BW] Jean Matsumoto (17-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#21BW] Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: David Martinez (3-0-0)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#774BW] Saimon Oliveira (18-6-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2024-10-01: W vs. [#237BW] Xavier Franklin (6-1-0) via UD ()
2023-05-28: W vs. [#550FW] Jose Zarauz (26-11-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 4:17 of round 4

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Rob Font	-183		61.87%
Elo K170	Rob Font	1995.61	+324.28	86.61%
Elo Modified	Rob Font	1910.01	+196.45	75.60%
Glicko-1	Rob Font	1965.07	+206.80	76.68%
WHR	Rob Font	1777.37	+72.27	60.25%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rob Font 38.2, David Martinez 27.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rob Font 203, David Martinez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#36][#20UFC] Jared Gordon (21-7-0, -268) vs. [#75][#40UFC] Rafa Garcia (17-4-0, +218)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (2-1-0)
2025-05-17: W vs. [#67LW] Thiago Moises (19-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:37 of round 1
2024-06-22: L vs. [#40LW] Nasrat Haqparast (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2023-11-11: W vs. [*] Mark O. Madsen (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 4:42 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rafa Garcia (2-1-0)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#306LW] Vinc Pichel (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-10-12: L vs. [#15LW] Grant Dawson (23-2-1) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:42 of round 2
2023-04-15: W vs. [#148LW] Clay Guida (38-25-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jared Gordon	-268		69.84%
Elo K170	Jared Gordon	1846.67	+37.21	55.33%
Elo Modified	Jared Gordon	1852.88	+70.86	60.06%
Glicko-1	Jared Gordon	1905.48	+104.30	64.57%
WHR	Jared Gordon	1839.09	+134.35	68.43%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jared Gordon 37.0, Rafa Garcia 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jared Gordon 119, Rafa Garcia 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on September 4, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho (09-06-2025)

Posted on September 1, 2025 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#4][#4UFC] Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0, +107) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Caio Borralho (17-1-0, -129)
Nassourdine Imavov is the All-Time #41 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Nassourdine Imavov (3-0-0)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#5MW] Israel Adesanya (24-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2
2024-09-28: W vs. [#14MW] Brendan Allen (25-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#16MW] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Caio Borralho (3-0-0)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#16MW] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 49-45)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#34LHW] Paul Craig (17-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
2023-11-04: W vs. [#29MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (28-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Caio Borralho	-129		53.83%
Elo K170	Nassourdine Imavov	2200.63	+104.36	64.58%
Elo Modified	Nassourdine Imavov	2158.26	+83.89	61.84%
Glicko-1	Nassourdine Imavov	2224.47	+108.34	65.10%
WHR	Nassourdine Imavov	2038.88	+2.77	50.40%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Nassourdine Imavov 30.5, Caio Borralho 32.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nassourdine Imavov 217, Caio Borralho 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#23][#15UFC] Benoit St. Denis (14-3-0, +165) vs. [#34][#19UFC] Mauricio Ruffy (12-1-0, -202)

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (1-2-0)
2025-05-10: W vs. [#213LW] Kyle Prepolec (18-9-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:35 of round 2
2024-09-28: L vs. [#13LW] Renato Carneiro (20-7-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2024-03-09: L vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (3-0-0)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#46LW] Bobby Green (32-17-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-11-16: W vs. [#239WW] James Llontop (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [*] Jamie Mullarkey (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mauricio Ruffy	-202		63.93%
Elo K170	Benoit St. Denis	1896.72	+79.88	61.30%
Elo Modified	Benoit St. Denis	1901.16	+91.71	62.90%
Glicko-1	Benoit St. Denis	1972.61	+83.80	61.83%
WHR	Mauricio Ruffy	1837.85	+42.39	56.07%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Benoit St. Denis 29.7, Mauricio Ruffy 29.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Benoit St. Denis 119, Mauricio Ruffy 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#72][#38UFC] Mason Jones (16-2-0, -157) vs. [#182][#72UFC] Bolaji Oki (10-2-0, +130)

Last 3 Fights: Mason Jones (3-0-0)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#280LW] Jeremy Stephens (29-22-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-25: W vs. [#137WW] Michael Pagani (8-2-0) via UD ()
2024-02-23: W vs. [#386LW] Bryce Logan (13-9-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 2:45 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Bolaji Oki (2-1-0)
2025-05-31: W vs. [#443LW] Michael Aswell (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#47LW] Chris Duncan (14-2-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:34 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#209FW] Timothy Cuamba (9-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mason Jones	-157		58.42%
Elo K170	Mason Jones	1772.30	+189.77	74.88%
Elo Modified	Mason Jones	1796.08	+207.87	76.79%
Glicko-1	Mason Jones	1817.61	+263.45	82.00%
WHR	Mason Jones	1774.90	+256.35	81.39%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mason Jones 30.3, Bolaji Oki 29.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mason Jones 126, Bolaji Oki 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on August 28, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on August 21, 2025 by Jason

This week contains a big test for the dog parlay!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang (08-23-2025)

Posted on August 18, 2025 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15][#12UFC] Johnny Walker (21-9-0, +297) vs. [#16][#13UFC] Mingyang Zhang (19-6-0, -398)

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#12LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:28 of round 1
2024-01-13: L vs. [#10DD][#6P4P][#1LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:42 of round 2
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#10DD][#6P4P][#1LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1)

Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2025-04-26: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:03 of round 1
2024-11-23: W vs. [#102MW] Osman Diaz (10-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:25 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#57LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (17-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mingyang Zhang	-398		76.03%
Elo K170	Johnny Walker	1791.23	+52.03	57.43%
Elo Modified	Johnny Walker	1802.87	+67.03	59.53%
Glicko-1	Johnny Walker	1856.33	+37.60	55.39%
WHR	Mingyang Zhang	1777.98	+58.76	58.38%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Johnny Walker 33.4, Mingyang Zhang 27.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Walker 427, Mingyang Zhang 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#4][#4UFC] Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0, -310) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Brian Ortega (16-4-0, +243)
Aljamain Sterling is the All-Time #47 ranked Absolute fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #12 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Aljamain Sterling (1-2-0)
2024-12-07: L vs. [#2FW] Movsar Evloev (19-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#48FW] Calvin Kattar (23-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (1-2-0)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#5FW] Diego Lopes (26-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (20-5-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2022-07-16: L vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (20-5-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Aljamain Sterling	-310		72.17%
Elo K170	Aljamain Sterling	2161.58	+181.21	73.95%
Elo Modified	Aljamain Sterling	2045.40	+103.34	64.45%
Glicko-1	Aljamain Sterling	2073.64	+44.65	56.39%
WHR	Aljamain Sterling	1936.22	+69.73	59.90%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Aljamain Sterling 36.0, Brian Ortega 34.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aljamain Sterling 259, Brian Ortega 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#5][#4UFC] Sergei Pavlovich (19-3-0, -263) vs. [#10][#7UFC] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (14-1-0, +210)
Sergei Pavlovich is the All-Time #35 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (1-2-0)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#12HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#4HW+] Alexander Volkov (38-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#2HW+] Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (3-0-0)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#13HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#38HW+] Ryan Spann (23-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2024-05-11: W vs. [#208HW+] Robelis Despaigne (5-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sergei Pavlovich	-263		69.19%
Elo K170	Sergei Pavlovich	1997.75	+109.86	65.30%
Elo Modified	Sergei Pavlovich	1987.45	+84.49	61.92%
Glicko-1	Sergei Pavlovich	2065.40	+133.36	68.30%
WHR	Sergei Pavlovich	1965.29	+152.62	70.65%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sergei Pavlovich 33.3, Waldo Cortes-Acosta 33.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sergei Pavlovich 203, Waldo Cortes-Acosta 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on August 14, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev (08-16-2025)

Posted on August 11, 2025 by Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1P4P][#4DD][#1][#1UFC] Dricus Du Plessis (23-2-0, +174) vs. [#4][#4UFC] Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0, -210)
Dricus Du Plessis is the All-Time #4 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Khamzat Chimaev is the All-Time #31 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2025-02-08: W vs. [#2MW] Sean Strickland (29-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#5MW] Israel Adesanya (24-5-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:38 of round 4
2024-01-20: W vs. [#2MW] Sean Strickland (29-7-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Khamzat Chimaev (3-0-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#10MW] Robert Whittaker (26-9-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:34 of round 1
2023-10-21: W vs. [#4WW] Kamaru Usman (21-4-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (28-14-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:13 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Khamzat Chimaev	-210		64.98%
Elo K170	Dricus Du Plessis	2382.91	+88.41	62.46%
Elo Modified	Dricus Du Plessis	2309.13	+50.66	57.24%
Glicko-1	Dricus Du Plessis	2396.54	+42.21	56.04%
WHR	Dricus Du Plessis	2200.82	+45.60	56.53%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dricus Du Plessis 31.6, Khamzat Chimaev 31.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dricus Du Plessis 189, Khamzat Chimaev 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#8][#8UFC] Lerone Murphy (16-0-1, +116) vs. [*] Aaron Pico (13-4-0, -140)

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2025-04-05: W vs. [#12FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#19FW] Dan Ige (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#47FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Aaron Pico (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [*] Henry Corrales (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:53 of round 1
2023-09-23: W vs. [#65FW] Pedro Carvalho (13-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 1
2023-04-22: W vs. [#311MW] James Gonzalez (11-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Aaron Pico	-140		55.74%
Elo K170	Lerone Murphy	2107.74	+240.04	79.93%
Elo Modified	Lerone Murphy	2049.17	+165.04	72.11%
Glicko-1	Lerone Murphy	2082.95	+156.57	71.12%
WHR	Lerone Murphy	1941.92	+177.74	73.56%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Lerone Murphy 34.0, Aaron Pico 28.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lerone Murphy 133, Aaron Pico 539
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#10][#10UFC] Geoff Neal (16-6-0, +212) vs. [#26][#22UFC] Carlos Prates (21-7-0, -260)
Geoff Neal is the All-Time #50 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (1-2-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#35WW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:30 of round 1
2024-02-17: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (16-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#6WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (19-0-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (2-1-0)
2025-04-26: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (16-1-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-11-09: W vs. [#34WW] Neil Magny (30-13-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:50 of round 1
2024-08-17: W vs. [#66WW] Jingliang Li (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:02 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Carlos Prates	-260		69.26%
Elo K170	Geoff Neal	1973.64	+62.62	58.91%
Elo Modified	Geoff Neal	1977.26	+74.60	60.57%
Glicko-1	Geoff Neal	2045.31	+55.97	57.98%
WHR	Carlos Prates	1934.25	+34.28	54.92%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Geoff Neal 34.9, Carlos Prates 32.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Geoff Neal 294, Carlos Prates 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlos Prates leads 1-0
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on August 7, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez (08-09-2025)

Posted on August 4, 2025 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#10][#9UFC] Roman Dolidze (15-3-0, +258) vs. [#16][#13UFC] Anthony Hernandez (14-2-0, -323)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (3-0-0)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#18MW] Marvin Vettori (19-9-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (28-14-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2024-06-29: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#14MW] Brendan Allen (25-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#48MW] Michel Pereira (32-13-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:22 of round 5
2024-02-17: W vs. [#23MW] Roman Kopylov (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Anthony Hernandez	-323		73.21%
Elo K170	Anthony Hernandez	2085.29	+34.75	54.98%
Elo Modified	Anthony Hernandez	2072.54	+25.70	53.69%
Glicko-1	Anthony Hernandez	2141.02	+11.40	51.64%
WHR	Anthony Hernandez	2024.77	+89.16	62.55%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Roman Dolidze 37.0, Anthony Hernandez 31.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 147, Anthony Hernandez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Roman Dolidze leads 1-0
.

Flyweight (125)
[#11][#9UFC] Steve Erceg (12-4-0, -400) vs. [#51][#23UFC] Ode Osbourne (13-8-0, +300)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (0-3-0)
2025-03-29: L vs. [#6DD][#7P4P][#2FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#6FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 1
2024-05-04: L vs. [#4DD][#5P4P][#1FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (30-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Ode Osbourne (1-2-0)
2025-04-05: W vs. [#99FLY] Luis Gurule (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2024-09-14: L vs. [#91FLY] Ronaldo Rodriguez (18-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-27)
2024-03-16: L vs. [#83FLY] Jafel Filho (16-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:27 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Steve Erceg	-400		76.19%
Elo K170	Steve Erceg	1640.75	+109.70	65.28%
Elo Modified	Steve Erceg	1645.13	+130.71	67.97%
Glicko-1	Steve Erceg	1676.92	+174.36	73.18%
WHR	Steve Erceg	1663.23	+209.59	76.97%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Steve Erceg 30.0, Ode Osbourne 33.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Erceg 133, Ode Osbourne 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#12][#11UFC] Angela Hill (18-14-0, +153) vs. [#13][#12UFC] Iasmin Lucindo (17-6-0, -184)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#25SW] Ketlen Souza (15-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#7SW] Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#38SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Iasmin Lucindo (2-1-0)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#4SW] Amanda Lemos (15-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-05: W vs. [*] Marina Rodriguez (17-6-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#49SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Iasmin Lucindo	-184		62.10%
Elo K170	Angela Hill	1635.09	+40.21	55.76%
Elo Modified	Angela Hill	1606.47	+46.65	56.67%
Glicko-1	Angela Hill	1596.50	+54.19	57.74%
WHR	Angela Hill	1541.10	+65.28	59.29%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Angela Hill 40.6, Iasmin Lucindo 23.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 175, Iasmin Lucindo 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on July 31, 2025 by Jason

We hit a huge parlay last week! Let’s try again..

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on July 24, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays are still in the green! Woohoo!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Keep Reading