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The Most Overrated MMA Fighter of All-Time

Posted on September 14, 2015 by Jason

#26 – #16: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1
#15 – #11: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2
#10 – #6: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3
#5 – #4: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 4
#3 – #2: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 5

If you missed the previous parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

#1

#1 – Kazushi Sakuraba (Rep Avg: #96.7 | Fight Matrix: #269)

But.. he beat Rampage Jackson!  Yes, at a point when he was supposed to.  But he beat Vitor Belfort.. true, although he was only 6-1.  But he beat Ken Shamrock.. when he was over the hill.  He beat lots of Gracies — most of which, get him props for the name and not necessarily the MMA value.  I could go on forever.  How many times did he not have the home advantage?  Yes, Sakuraba was often out-sized and yes, his record is full of name power… most of whom are in the win column against him.  In hindsight, the first half of his career (other than the ass kickings) was probably one of the best managed portions of a fighter career in history.

Current MMA Rankings Updated (09-13-2015)

Posted on September 13, 2015 by Jason

The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 5

Posted on September 13, 2015 by Jason

#26 – #16: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1
#15 – #11: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2
#10 – #6: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3
#5 – #4: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 4

If you missed the previous parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

#3 – #2

#3 – Renato Sobral (Rep Avg: #83.3 | Fight Matrix: #139)

As we hit Babalu, I am surprised the gap is quite as wide as it is.  He does have some solid wins, but in the end, no major titles is an unfortunate stain on a very solid career.

EDIT: Sobral got inserted too high into the list.  He should actually be in the bottom of the Top 10.

Keep Reading

The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 4

Posted on September 12, 2015 by Jason

#26 – #16: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1
#15 – #11: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2
#10 – #6: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3

If you missed the previous parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

#5 – #4

#5 – Dan Severn (Rep Avg: #63.3 | Fight Matrix: #120)

Nostalgia is respectable, but it doesn’t necessarily equate to super stardom.  While 101 wins is nothing to downplay, the last 90 wins or so were of far lesser quality than the first 10.  In some ways it is like Severn gave up the high profile fights and was then OK with mediocrity.

 

Keep Reading

The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 3

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Jason

#26 – #16: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1
#15 – #11: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2

If you missed the previous parts, you can visit w/ the links above.

 

#10 – #6

#10 – Mark Kerr (Rep Avg: #103.7 | Fight Matrix: #169)

Kerr, undoubtedly a credible heavyweight for a short period, simply doesn’t have the substance to justify a ranking at the threshold of the Top 100.

 

Keep Reading

The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 2

Posted on September 10, 2015 by Jason

#26 – #16: The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1

If you missed the first part, you can visit it w/ the link above.  It has all of the details about how this list came to be.

 

#15 – #11

#15 – Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Rep Avg: #80.0 | Fight Matrix: #117)

Not a huge leap from #117 to #80.  To be at the 14 spot in this list and to only see this kind of gap, either speaks volumes about how representative our all-time rankings are, or vice versa.  The area around #100 is REALLY crowded with “almost greats”.

 

Keep Reading

The Most Overrated MMA Fighters of All-Time: Part 1

Posted on September 9, 2015 by Jason

For those of you who do not know, in addition to our Current MMA Rankings, we also feature an All-Time MMA Rankings that is updated every month (usually on the 2nd).

In a previous post, I took a look at the most underrated fighters of all-time.  At the time, I said I wouldn’t look at the most underrated — but what the hell?  This list required some additional thought and rules to make sure fighters listed are notable, but here it is…

 

Not surprisingly, it is still tough to find (seemingly) reputable lists:

Crowd-sourcing Representative: Tapology Top 150 (2015-09-09)

“Peak” Mathematical Representative: MMA-ELO Top 100 (2015-09-09)

“Cumulative” Mathematical Representative: Sports-Ratings Top 250 (2015-01-03)

 

I would have loved to have added an “Expert” representative, but I could not find one readily available.

 

When compared to the last series, all of the lists above have since been updated — although the “Sports Ratings” list is still out of date.  Furthermore, I went deeper on the Top X for two of the three sites and the All-Time Rankings here has seen (at least) two relatively major updates in order to increase the precision of some calculations.

 

Methodology & Notes

  • I am taking the average of a fighter’s ranks in the above three lists.  If a fighter is not in one of the lists, that rank is the list maximum + 1.
  • I am then subtracting the above average from the Fight Matrix ranking as of the last run.  A negative result = overrated.
  • Finally, I am valuing “higher” ranks more than “lower” ranks.  Example:  A fighter with a representative average of #15 that we rank at #40, is a slightly more overrated fighter than one with a representative average of #90 that we rank at #230.  The break-even point is close to this though.
  • I removed women from the lists — men and women don’t belong in the same list.
  • Sports-Ratings has a fighter named Jesper Hallberg at #217.  Sherdog has him as having zero professional fights, so he is removed from contention.
  • Fighters must be in the Top 250 at Fight Matrix and be in at least two representative lists to be considered.

Value Formula (How they are ranked): (502 / SumOf3RepRanks) * DiffOf3RepRanksAvgFromFM
502 = Max Sum of 3 Rep Positions seen in all fighters considered

 

An honorable mention…. well two.

Due to the minimum qualifications of the list, Rickson Gracie was left off.  I felt it necessary to list him, as he easily would’ve made the top spot.  Ironically, #2 would’ve been Renzo Gracie.  Says a lot for name power, doesn’t it?

 

#26 – #15

#26 – Norifumi Yamamoto (Rep Avg: #118.7 | Fight Matrix: #152)

I had every intention of starting out the list with #25, but with Yamamoto at #26, I had to include him.  I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard gripes about him not being listed in one of our All-Time Top 25s.  The answer is simple; the guy never accumulated much worth at a single division.  Instead he bounced between 3 of them and didn’t do enough in any one.

 

Keep Reading

MMA Rankings Updated (09-06-2015)

Posted on September 5, 2015 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Current Rankings updated as usual — note: I “retired” the wrong Nogueira, oops!
  • All-Time Rankings updated with UFC 191 results and with an improvement to a calculation (increased precision) that shows the effects of head-to-head results of neighboring fighters (by ranking).

All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (09-02-2015)

Posted on September 2, 2015 by Jason

Current MMA Rankings Updated (08-30-2015)

Posted on August 30, 2015 by Jason

Current MMA Rankings Updated (08-24-2015)

Posted on August 24, 2015 by Jason

Current MMA Rankings Updated (08-17-2015)

Posted on August 17, 2015 by Jason

Current MMA Rankings Updated (08-09-2015)

Posted on August 9, 2015 by Jason

No internal changes with this update… but the following is food for thought:

Due to the ongoing problem of controversial decisions, I’ve been tossing around the idea of adding a press score average and factoring it in as a 4th official judge for fights.  MMADecisions.com is a great resource for this info and is almost certainly where I’d get the data.

As a quick relevant example on how this’d work: Last night’s Dariush/Johnson would be treated as a draw in the rating system, because the 4th judge would make it 2-2.

What do you think about this possible change?

[poll id=”22″]

 

In summary, it’d be more work in terms of code changes, data gathering and validation.  Furthermore, fighters’ performances in their next couple bouts tend to negate bad decisions.  However, I think including a press score average provides a more accurate, immediate picture and the “tilt” factor is pretty minimal.

 

MMA Open-Weight 32-Man Tournament

Posted on August 7, 2015 by Jason

For fun, I transformed the ratings of all currently ranked male fighters into the Heavyweight+ counterpart — in other words, what it’d be if they moved up to the division without yet having a fight. Then, I seeded them based on ordering in a tournament style.

 

Who’s got the best chance for an upset?  What’s the lowest seed that makes it to the 3rd round?

Current & All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (08-02-2015)

Posted on August 2, 2015 by Jason

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