This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
The huge Underdog parlay hit last week! Let’s try again!!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
How Fighter Rankings Impact Betting Odds in MMA
Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) has a dynamic and ever-evolving ranking system that plays a crucial role in shaping betting odds. Rankings influence how sportsbooks and bettors assess a fighter’s chances of winning, but they don’t always tell the full story. Understanding the relationship between rankings and betting lines can give bettors an edge when wagering on fights.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev (03-18-2025)
Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1][#8DD][#5P4P][#1UFC] Alex Pereira (12-2-0, -119) vs. [#3][#3UFC] Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1, -102)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #14 ranked Light Heavyweight and #49 ranked Absolute fighter.
Magomed Ankalaev is the All-Time #27 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#8LHW] Khalil Rountree (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 4
2024-06-29: W vs. [#2LHW][#10P4P] Jiri Prochazka (31-5-1) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:13 of round 2
2024-04-13: W vs. [#4LHW] Jamahal Hill (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Magomed Ankalaev (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#23LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#13LHW] Johnny Walker (21-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:42 of round 2
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#13LHW] Johnny Walker (21-9-0)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alex Pereira | -119 | 51.83% | |
| Elo K170 | Alex Pereira | 2301.88 | +82.59 | 61.67% |
| Elo Modified | Alex Pereira | 2263.89 | +54.04 | 57.71% |
| Glicko-1 | Alex Pereira | 2399.12 | +80.63 | 61.40% |
| WHR | Alex Pereira | 2171.55 | +123.01 | 67.00% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 154, Magomed Ankalaev 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alex Pereira leads 1-0
.
Lightweight (155)
[#5][#5UFC] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0, +108) vs. [*] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0, -128)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #13 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Rafael Fiziev is the All-Time #50 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4LW] Max Holloway (26-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
2023-07-29: W vs. [#6LW] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2023-03-18: W vs. [*] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (1-2-0)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#8LW] Mateusz Gamrot (24-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2
2023-03-18: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2022-07-09: W vs. [#21WW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:18 of round 5
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Rafael Fiziev | -128 | 53.86% | |
| Elo K170 | Justin Gaethje | 2266.79 | +349.47 | 88.20% |
| Elo Modified | Justin Gaethje | 2211.91 | +306.89 | 85.40% |
| Glicko-1 | Justin Gaethje | 2261.68 | +296.39 | 84.63% |
| WHR | Justin Gaethje | 1976.06 | +103.38 | 64.45% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 329, Rafael Fiziev 532
Previous Match-up Record: Justin Gaethje leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Women Strawweight (115)
[#5][#5UFC] Amanda Lemos (14-4-1, +106) vs. [#10][#10UFC] Iasmin Lucindo (17-5-0, -128)
Last 3 Fights: Amanda Lemos (1-2-0)
2024-07-20: L vs. [#2SW][#4DD][#5P4P] Virna Jandiroba (21-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 2
2024-02-17: W vs. [#6SW] Mackenzie Dern (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#1SW][#1DD][#1P4P] Weili Zhang (26-3-0) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 49-45)
Last 3 Fights: Iasmin Lucindo (3-0-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#11SW] Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#44SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#79SW] Polyana Viana (13-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Iasmin Lucindo | -128 | 53.63% | |
| Elo K170 | Amanda Lemos | 1706.38 | +34.71 | 54.98% |
| Elo Modified | Amanda Lemos | 1696.13 | +75.21 | 60.66% |
| Glicko-1 | Amanda Lemos | 1693.03 | +90.69 | 62.76% |
| WHR | Amanda Lemos | 1605.17 | +90.53 | 62.74% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Lemos 231, Iasmin Lucindo 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
Upset Alert? Fighters the Ranking Systems Disagree On – March 2025
Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) is a competitive sport where fighter rankings play an important role in ranking fighter status and future fights. Different systems of rankings, however, yield differing results, leaving some fascinating contradictions in the assessment of fighters. FightMatrix, being one of the leading MMA ranking websites, utilizes a blend of objective criteria along with prediction metrics to come up with fighter standings.
This article will look at fights across multiple weight classes for which there are significant differences between ranking systems like Betting Odds, Elo, and WHR, why these discrepancies occur, and what they can mean for upcoming bouts.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Almabayev (03-01-2025)
Flyweight (125)
[#10][#8UFC] Manel Kape (20-7-0, -240) vs. [#15][#11UFC] Asu Almabayev (21-2-0, +195)
Manel Kape is the All-Time #31 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (2-1-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#32FLY] Bruno Silva (14-7-2) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 1:57 of round 3
2024-07-27: L vs. [#7FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (14-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#98FLY] Felipe dos Santos (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Asu Almabayev (3-0-0)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#24FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-15: W vs. [#207FLY] Jose Johnson (17-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#134FLY] C.J. Vergara (12-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Manel Kape | -240 | 67.55% | |
| Elo K170 | Asu Almabayev | 1906.15 | +92.32 | 62.98% |
| Elo Modified | Asu Almabayev | 1867.33 | +54.36 | 57.76% |
| Glicko-1 | Manel Kape | 1889.32 | +0.11 | 50.02% |
| WHR | Manel Kape | 1810.43 | +47.02 | 56.72% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manel Kape 77, Asu Almabayev 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Asu Almabayev leads 2-1
.
Middleweight (185)
[#100][#51UFC] Cody Brundage (10-6-0, +141) vs. [#238][#70UFC] Julian Marquez (9-5-0, -170)
Last 3 Fights: Cody Brundage (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-07-13: NC vs. [#106MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-7-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#23MW] Bo Nickal (7-0-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2023-12-02: W vs. [#131MW] Zachary Reese (8-2-0) via KO (Slam and Punches) in 1:49 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Julian Marquez (0-3-0)
2024-06-08: L vs. [#131MW] Zachary Reese (8-2-0) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 0:20 of round 1
2023-03-04: L vs. [#56MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 2
2022-06-18: L vs. [#24MW] Gregory Rodrigues (16-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Julian Marquez | -170 | 60.27% | |
| Elo K170 | Cody Brundage | 1418.18 | +93.47 | 63.14% |
| Elo Modified | Cody Brundage | 1396.06 | +4.68 | 50.67% |
| Glicko-1 | Julian Marquez | 1397.10 | +20.82 | 52.99% |
| WHR | Cody Brundage | 1390.71 | +60.37 | 58.60% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Brundage 231, Julian Marquez 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cody Brundage leads 1-0
.
Featherweight (145)
[#31][#21UFC] William Gomis (14-2-0, -218) vs. [#85][#43UFC] Hyder Amil (10-0-0, +178)
Last 3 Fights: William Gomis (3-0-0)
2024-09-28: W vs. [#32FW] Joanderson Brito (17-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#414BW] Yanis Ghemmouri (12-3-0) via TKO (Body Kick) in 2:20 of round 3
2023-04-22: W vs. [#242FW] Francis Marshall (8-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Hyder Amil (3-0-0)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#132FW] Jeong Yeong Lee (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:05 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#936FW] Fernie Garcia (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 2
2023-08-15: W vs. [#784LW] Emrah Sonmez (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | William Gomis | -218 | 65.58% | |
| Elo K170 | William Gomis | 1851.45 | +174.98 | 73.25% |
| Elo Modified | William Gomis | 1722.26 | +73.41 | 60.41% |
| Glicko-1 | William Gomis | 1733.70 | +67.07 | 59.53% |
| WHR | William Gomis | 1659.21 | +25.17 | 53.62% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: William Gomis 154, Hyder Amil 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Song vs Cejudo (02-22-2025)
Bantamweight (135)
[#8][#7UFC] Henry Cejudo (16-4-0, +215) vs. [#13][#12UFC] Yadong Song (21-9-1, -268)
Henry Cejudo is the All-Time #6 ranked Bantamweight and #48 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#1BW][#4DD][#4P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-05-06: L vs. [#4FW] Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2020-05-09: W vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (24-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:58 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#3BW] Petr Yan (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#24BW] Chris Gutierrez (21-6-2) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-29: W vs. [#42BW] Ricky Simon (21-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 5
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Yadong Song | -268 | 69.64% | |
| Elo K170 | Henry Cejudo | 2117.01 | +208.33 | 76.84% |
| Elo Modified | Henry Cejudo | 2108.85 | +197.73 | 75.73% |
| Glicko-1 | Henry Cejudo | 2187.57 | +227.06 | 78.70% |
| WHR | Henry Cejudo | 1987.79 | +131.57 | 68.08% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Henry Cejudo 371, Yadong Song 350
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Middleweight (185)
[#11][#10UFC] Brendan Allen (24-6-0, +227) vs. [#19][#16UFC] Anthony Hernandez (13-2-0, -286)
Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (2-1-0)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#3MW] Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#23MW] Chris Curtis (31-12-0) via SD (48-47, 49-46, 47-48)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#29MW] Paul Craig (17-9-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#31MW] Michel Pereira (32-12-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:22 of round 5
2024-02-17: W vs. [#20MW] Roman Kopylov (14-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
2023-05-20: W vs. [#54MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (14-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Anthony Hernandez | -286 | 70.78% | |
| Elo K170 | Brendan Allen | 2018.80 | +24.55 | 53.53% |
| Elo Modified | Anthony Hernandez | 1982.98 | +13.50 | 51.94% |
| Glicko-1 | Anthony Hernandez | 2074.70 | +37.34 | 55.35% |
| WHR | Anthony Hernandez | 2000.39 | +106.00 | 64.80% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 147, Anthony Hernandez 126
Previous Match-up Record: Anthony Hernandez leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brendan Allen leads 1-0
.
Featherweight (140)
[#12BW][#11UFCBW] Rob Font (21-8-0, +136) vs. [#37BW][#27UFCBW] Jean Matsumoto (16-0-0, -169)
Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (1-2-0)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#16BW] Kyler Phillips (12-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#7BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#6BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Jean Matsumoto (3-0-0)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#45BW] Brad Katona (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#206BW] Dan Argueta (9-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:59 of round 2
2023-09-12: W vs. [#224BW] Kasey Tanner (8-1-0) via UD ()
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jean Matsumoto | -169 | 59.72% | |
| Elo K170 | Rob Font | 1924.76 | +58.03 | 58.28% |
| Elo Modified | Rob Font | 1907.33 | +36.16 | 55.18% |
| Glicko-1 | Rob Font | 1975.48 | +93.38 | 63.12% |
| WHR | Rob Font | 1785.24 | +10.63 | 51.53% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rob Font 126, Jean Matsumoto 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Rodrigues (02-15-2025)
Middleweight (185)
[#10][#9UFC] Jared Cannonier (17-8-0, +152) vs. [#25][#21UFC] Gregory Rodrigues (16-5-0, -184)
Jared Cannonier is the All-Time #24 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jared Cannonier (1-2-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#8MW] Caio Borralho (17-1-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 49-45)
2024-06-08: L vs. [#3MW] Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 4
2023-06-17: W vs. [*] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 48-46)
Last 3 Fights: Gregory Rodrigues (3-0-0)
2024-07-27: W vs. [#68MW] Christian Leroy Duncan (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#41MW] Brad Tavares (20-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 3
2023-08-19: W vs. [#160MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-10-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:43 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Gregory Rodrigues | -184 | 62.01% | |
| Elo K170 | Jared Cannonier | 1959.16 | +106.65 | 64.88% |
| Elo Modified | Jared Cannonier | 1924.11 | +33.41 | 54.79% |
| Glicko-1 | Jared Cannonier | 1961.48 | +15.14 | 52.18% |
| WHR | Jared Cannonier | 1865.10 | +51.89 | 57.41% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jared Cannonier 175, Gregory Rodrigues 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Featherweight (145)
[#16][#12UFC] Calvin Kattar (23-8-0, +313) vs. [#29][#19UFC] Youssef Zalal (16-5-1, -417)
Calvin Kattar is the All-Time #38 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Calvin Kattar (0-3-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4FW] Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-10-29: L vs. [#7FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 0:08 of round 2
2022-06-18: L vs. [#10FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Youssef Zalal (3-0-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#73FW] Jack Shore (17-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:59 of round 2
2024-08-10: W vs. [#183FW] Jarno Errens (14-6-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:52 of round 1
2024-03-23: W vs. [#55FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:50 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Youssef Zalal | -417 | 76.91% | |
| Elo K170 | Calvin Kattar | 1874.77 | +91.45 | 62.87% |
| Elo Modified | Calvin Kattar | 1863.66 | +74.96 | 60.62% |
| Glicko-1 | Calvin Kattar | 1913.70 | +39.14 | 55.61% |
| WHR | Youssef Zalal | 1773.62 | +19.24 | 52.76% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Calvin Kattar 308, Youssef Zalal 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Lightweight (155)
[#68][#35UFC] Ismael Bonfim (20-4-0, -148) vs. [*] Nazim Sadykhov (9-1-1, +121)
Last 3 Fights: Ismael Bonfim (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#298LW] Vinc Pichel (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-07-01: L vs. [#23LW] Benoit St. Denis (13-3-0) via SUB in 4:48 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [#159LW] Terrance McKinney (16-7-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 2:17 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Nazim Sadykhov (2-0-1)
2023-11-11: D vs. [#213LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-5-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2023-07-15: W vs. [#159LW] Terrance McKinney (16-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:07 of round 2
2023-02-18: W vs. [#212WW] Evan Elder (9-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 0:38 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Ismael Bonfim | -148 | 56.87% | |
| Elo K170 | Ismael Bonfim | 1858.94 | +287.23 | 83.93% |
| Elo Modified | Ismael Bonfim | 1850.07 | +246.48 | 80.52% |
| Glicko-1 | Ismael Bonfim | 1894.65 | +260.64 | 81.77% |
| WHR | Ismael Bonfim | 1823.27 | +239.80 | 79.90% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ismael Bonfim 287, Nazim Sadykhov 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading