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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 315: Muhammad vs Maddalena (05-10-2025)

Posted on May 5, 2025 by Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#6DD][#6P4P][#1][#1UFC] Belal Muhammad (24-3-0, -184) vs. [#6][#6UFC] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0, +154)
Belal Muhammad is the All-Time #9 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Belal Muhammad (3-0-0)
2024-07-27: W vs. [#3WW] Leon Edwards (22-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#12WW] Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#2WW][#9P4P] Sean Brady (18-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jack Della Maddalena (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#12WW] Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 3:43 of round 3
2023-09-16: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (27-13-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#87WW] Bassil Hafez (9-5-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Belal Muhammad -184 62.20%
Elo K170 Belal Muhammad 2484.29 +328.67 86.90%
Elo Modified Belal Muhammad 2421.68 +384.07 90.12%
Glicko-1 Belal Muhammad 2478.40 +370.72 89.41%
WHR Belal Muhammad 2161.18 +240.63 79.98%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Belal Muhammad 36.8, Jack Della Maddalena 28.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Belal Muhammad 287, Jack Della Maddalena 427
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#2P4P][#6DD][#1][#1UFC] Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1, +113) vs. [#5P4P][#7DD][#2][#2UFC] Manon Fiorot (12-1-0, -134)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #2 ranked Women’s fighter.
Manon Fiorot is the All-Time #35 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (1-1-1)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#3FLY] Alexa Grasso (16-4-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-09-16: D vs. [#3FLY] Alexa Grasso (16-4-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2023-03-04: L vs. [#3FLY] Alexa Grasso (16-4-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 4:34 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Manon Fiorot (3-0-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#4FLY] Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#5FLY] Rose Namajunas (13-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#20FLY] Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Manon Fiorot -134 54.94%
Elo K170 Manon Fiorot 1981.52 +7.02 51.01%
Elo Modified Manon Fiorot 1958.00 +16.76 52.41%
Glicko-1 Manon Fiorot 1962.11 +14.37 52.07%
WHR Manon Fiorot 1879.44 +6.91 50.99%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Valentina Shevchenko 37.2, Manon Fiorot 35.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 238, Manon Fiorot 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#3][#3UFC] Alexa Grasso (16-4-1, +204) vs. [#6][#6UFC] Natalia Silva (18-5-1, -247)
Alexa Grasso is the All-Time #21 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (1-1-1)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#1FLY][#6DD][#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-09-16: D vs. [#1FLY][#6DD][#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2023-03-04: W vs. [#1FLY][#6DD][#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 4:34 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Natalia Silva (3-0-0)
2024-09-07: W vs. [#12FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#11FLY] Viviane Araujo (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#34FLY] Andrea Lee (13-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Natalia Silva -247 68.39%
Elo K170 Natalia Silva 1843.41 +43.44 56.22%
Elo Modified Natalia Silva 1845.63 +55.18 57.87%
Glicko-1 Natalia Silva 1848.26 +46.25 56.62%
WHR Natalia Silva 1811.92 +58.88 58.39%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexa Grasso 31.7, Natalia Silva 28.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexa Grasso 238, Natalia Silva 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#9][#8UFC] Jose Aldo (32-9-0, -198) vs. [#17][#14UFC] Aiemann Zahabi (12-2-0, +166)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #25 ranked Bantamweight and #3 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (1-2-0)
2024-10-05: L vs. [#8BW] Mario Bautista (15-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#24BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#1BW][#4DD][#4P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Aiemann Zahabi (3-0-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#21BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#99BW] Javid Basharat (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#257BW] Qileng Aori (27-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jose Aldo -198 63.86%
Elo K170 Jose Aldo 1975.94 +153.27 70.73%
Elo Modified Jose Aldo 2029.89 +212.84 77.30%
Glicko-1 Jose Aldo 2089.83 +238.39 79.78%
WHR Jose Aldo 1946.33 +203.45 76.34%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jose Aldo 38.6, Aiemann Zahabi 37.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 217, Aiemann Zahabi 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#47][#33UFC] Brad Katona (14-4-0, +133) vs. [#110][#48UFC] Bekzat Almakhan (12-2-0, -158)

Last 3 Fights: Brad Katona (1-2-0)
2024-10-19: L vs. [#28BW] Jean Matsumoto (16-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#289BW] Jesse Butler (12-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#85BW] Garrett Armfield (10-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Bekzat Almakhan (2-1-0)
2024-03-02: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#762BW] Yan Ferraz (16-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 3
2023-07-22: W vs. [#152FLY] Mateus Gloria (14-6-2) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:07 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bekzat Almakhan -158 58.79%
Elo K170 Brad Katona 1699.12 +22.79 53.27%
Elo Modified Brad Katona 1692.20 +6.65 50.96%
Glicko-1 Bekzat Almakhan 1761.22 +92.50 63.00%
WHR Brad Katona 1639.86 +31.11 54.47%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brad Katona 33.4, Bekzat Almakhan 27.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brad Katona 203, Bekzat Almakhan 434
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#61][#40UFC] Bruno Silva (23-12-0, +124) vs. [#63][#41UFC] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0, -148)

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (0-3-0)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#48MW] Ismail Naurdiev (23-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-03-30: L vs. [*] Chris Weidman (16-8-0) via TUD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#29MW] Sharabutdin Magomedov (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Marc-Andre Barriault (0-3-0)
2024-11-02: L vs. [#50MW] Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 1
2024-06-29: L vs. [#23MW] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
2024-01-20: L vs. [#24MW] Chris Curtis (31-12-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marc-Andre Barriault -148 57.20%
Elo K170 Bruno Silva 1503.59 +35.32 55.07%
Elo Modified Marc-Andre Barriault 1565.54 +22.39 53.22%
Glicko-1 Marc-Andre Barriault 1590.74 +11.56 51.66%
WHR Marc-Andre Barriault 1530.55 +27.23 53.91%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Bruno Silva 35.8, Marc-Andre Barriault 35.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bruno Silva 196, Marc-Andre Barriault 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Bruno Silva leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#77][#46UFC] Mike Malott (11-2-1, -168) vs. [#80][#48UFC] Charlie Radtke (10-4-0, +141)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Malott (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#154WW] Trevin Giles (16-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#30WW] Neil Magny (29-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 3
2023-06-10: W vs. [#229WW] Adam Fugitt (10-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:06 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Charlie Radtke (2-1-0)
2024-11-09: W vs. [#105WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 1
2024-06-08: L vs. [#22WW] Carlos Prates (21-7-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:47 of round 1
2024-02-03: W vs. [*] Gilbert Urbina (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Malott -168 60.17%
Elo K170 Mike Malott 1713.86 +157.14 71.19%
Elo Modified Mike Malott 1707.62 +124.73 67.22%
Glicko-1 Mike Malott 1722.43 +136.14 68.65%
WHR Mike Malott 1683.79 +144.90 69.72%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mike Malott 33.5, Charlie Radtke 34.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Malott 189, Charlie Radtke 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#12][#9UFC] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0, +251) vs. [#13][#10UFC] Jasmine Jasudavicius (13-3-0, -311)
Jessica Andrade is the All-Time #16 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Andrade (2-1-0)
2024-09-07: L vs. [#6FLY] Natalia Silva (18-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-13: W vs. [*] Marina Rodriguez (17-6-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#5SW] Mackenzie Dern (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jasmine Jasudavicius (3-0-0)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#49FLY] Mayra Bueno Silva (10-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#24FLY] Ariane Lipski (17-10-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:28 of round 3
2024-07-13: W vs. [#28SW] Fatima Kline (7-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jasmine Jasudavicius -311 72.64%
Elo K170 Jasmine Jasudavicius 1704.68 +15.84 52.28%
Elo Modified Jasmine Jasudavicius 1734.09 +69.11 59.82%
Glicko-1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 1722.55 +87.44 62.32%
WHR Jasmine Jasudavicius 1682.00 +75.16 60.65%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jessica Andrade 33.6, Jasmine Jasudavicius 36.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Andrade 245, Jasmine Jasudavicius 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#43][#26UFC] Ivan Erslan (14-4-0, +251) vs. [#78][#32UFC] Navajo Stirling (6-0-0, -312)

Last 3 Fights: Ivan Erslan (1-2-0)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#27LHW] Ion Cutelaba (19-10-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#129LHW] Bogdan Gnidko (10-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:54 of round 1
2023-10-14: L vs. [#23LHW] Rafal Haratyk (20-5-2) via KO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Navajo Stirling (3-0-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#150LHW] George Tokkos (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-09-10: W vs. [#181HW+] Phillip Latu (7-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:21 of round 2
2024-06-14: W vs. [#253LHW] Sam Kei (8-9-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 1:48 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Navajo Stirling -312 72.66%
Elo K170 Ivan Erslan 1526.22 +42.17 56.04%
Elo Modified Ivan Erslan 1616.59 +84.56 61.93%
Glicko-1 Ivan Erslan 1685.28 +164.62 72.06%
WHR Ivan Erslan 1638.44 +186.13 74.49%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ivan Erslan 33.5, Navajo Stirling 27.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ivan Erslan 224, Navajo Stirling 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#27][#19UFC] Ion Cutelaba (19-10-1, -112) vs. [#30][#21UFC] Modestas Bukauskas (17-6-0, -107)

Last 3 Fights: Ion Cutelaba (2-1-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#82LHW] Ibo Aslan (14-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:51 of round 1
2024-09-28: W vs. [#43LHW] Ivan Erslan (14-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#19LHW] Philipe Lins (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Modestas Bukauskas (2-1-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#153LHW] Raffael Cerqueira (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1
2024-07-27: W vs. [#41LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-8-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:12 of round 3
2023-11-04: L vs. [#34LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ion Cutelaba -112 50.54%
Elo K170 Ion Cutelaba 1700.48 +0.76 50.11%
Elo Modified Modestas Bukauskas 1739.52 +47.37 56.77%
Glicko-1 Modestas Bukauskas 1767.44 +32.84 54.71%
WHR Modestas Bukauskas 1682.57 +15.16 52.18%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ion Cutelaba 31.4, Modestas Bukauskas 31.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ion Cutelaba 77, Modestas Bukauskas 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ion Cutelaba leads 1-0
.

Featherweight (145)
[#141][#62UFC] Jeong Yeong Lee (11-2-0, -122) vs. [*] Daniel Santos (13-2-0, +102)

Last 3 Fights: Jeong Yeong Lee (2-1-0)
2024-07-20: L vs. [#43FW] Hyder Amil (11-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:05 of round 1
2024-02-03: W vs. [*] Blake Bilder (8-2-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-04: W vs. [#107FW] Zha Yi (25-5-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Santos (2-1-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#321FW] Johnny Munoz Jr. (14-4-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#84FW] John Castaneda (21-8-0) via KO (Punches and Knee) in 4:28 of round 2
2022-04-09: L vs. [#114FW] Julio Arce (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jeong Yeong Lee -122 52.60%
Elo K170 Daniel Santos 1675.97 +59.26 58.45%
Elo Modified Daniel Santos 1688.59 +117.18 66.25%
Glicko-1 Daniel Santos 1733.52 +154.62 70.89%
WHR Daniel Santos 1675.13 +69.35 59.85%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jeong Yeong Lee 29.5, Daniel Santos 30.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeong Yeong Lee 294, Daniel Santos 707
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Belal Muhammad
Highest Stored DD Rating: Belal Muhammad
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2025-5-8

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