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Fight Matrix

UFC Fight Night (Nog:Davis) – How they stack up

Posted on March 25, 2011 by Jason

Light Heavyweight
[#15] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. [#20] Phil Davis

Welterweight
[#19] Dan Hardy vs. [*] Anthony Johnson

Welterweight
[#51] DaMarques Johnson vs. [#65] Amir Sadollah

Featherweight
[#33] Leonard Garcia vs. [#88] Chan Sung Jung

Featherweight
[#54] Mackens Semerzier vs. [#388] Alex Caceres

Heavyweight
[#21] Mike Russow vs. [#40] Jon Madsen

Welterweight
[#31] John Hathaway vs. [#467] Kris McCray

Bantamweight
[#13] Michael McDonald vs. [#45] Edwin Figueora

Heavyweight
[#133] Christian Morecraft vs. [#140] Sean McCorkle

Welterweight
[#43] Johny Hendricks vs. [#61] Anthony Waldburger

Middleweight
[#56] Aaron Simpson vs. [#69] Mario Miranda

Lightweight
[#38] Nik Lentz vs. [#77] Waylon Lowe

This Upcoming Weekend: Other Fights of Note – Titan FC 17

Posted on March 23, 2011 by Jonathan

On this card there are a few UFC veterans, as well as other rising starts and prospects.

Titan Fighting Championships 17

Friday, March 25th, 2011
Kansas City, Kansas, United States

Heavyweight (265 lbs)
[#161 HW] Bobby Lashley (5 – 1 – 0) vs. [#269 MW] John Ott (8 – 7 – 0)

Former WWE Champion Bobby Lashley was originally scheduled to face James Jack [#243 HW] until the promoter was unable to reach Jack, according to a press release (sherdog). John Ott is the late replacement. Typically competing at 185 or 205, Ott most recently defeated Brian Imes at Bellator 26 on 8/26/10. Lashley has not competed since his first loss, which was to Chad Griggs via TKO(retirement) at Strikeforce-Houston on 8/21/10.

Keep Reading

MMA Canada now using FightMatrix to power Canadian rankings

Posted on March 23, 2011 by Jason

MMA Canada is rolling out the initial monthly edition of their rankings, which are powered by FightMatrix.   Today, they released the Canada Top 5 Bantamweights, and will release more divisions in the upcoming week.

MMA Canada Bantamweight Rankings

Ranking ‘The Ultimate Fighter 13’ Contestants

Posted on March 20, 2011 by Oleg

A preliminary ranking of ‘The Ultimate Fighter 13’  contestants. 

There are 14 welterweights this season, with no elimination fights to get into the house, and one second-chance wild card spot.

[#113] Anthony Ferguson

[#179] Myles Jury

[#200] Ryan McGillivray

[#247 LW] Ramsey Nijem

[#321] Charlie Rader

[#364] Shamar Bailey

[#387] Clay Harvison

[#441] Chris Cope

[#475] Len Bentley

[NR] Nordin Asrih

[NR] Michael Bowman

[NR] Keon Caldwell

[NR] Zachary Davis

[NR] Javier Torres

MMA Rankings Updated: 3/20/2011

Posted on March 20, 2011 by Jason

Notable Info (Outside of the Obvious)

  • The 19-fight winning streak of Nazareno Malagarie was brought to a halt by Daniel Straus via unanimous decision (29-28 x3).  Straus was favored by the ratings.

The Upcoming Weekend: Other Fights of Note

Posted on March 17, 2011 by Jason

Saturday – KSW 15

Catchweight (201 lbs)
[#13 MW] Mamed Khalidov vs. [#121 HW+] James Irvin
Originally scheduled for 192lb, Irvin missed by 9 lbs.  Irvin spent FOUR hours in the sauna trying to drop the 9 lbs, but was unsuccessful.

Light Heavyweight
[#39] Jan Blachowicz vs. [#45] Sokoudjou

.

Saturday – United Glory

Welterweight
[#21] Siyar Bahadurzada vs. [#29] John Alessio

.

Saturday – WFC Pretorian

Light Heavyweight?
[#23] Paulo Filho vs. [*] Jackson Mora

Jones/Rua: A Gambling Analysis

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Jason

I myself am not a professional gambler, but I do like to take a look at the odds of a big/intriguing fight from time-to-time and compare it to the rating system, so here we are again.

BetUS, the online sportsbook offers Jones as a -210 favorite, which means that to win $100, you would actually have to bet $210.  Now, comparing the odds to the perceived chance of winning is not like comparing oranges to oranges (more like oranges to nectarines), but doing so reveals that Jones would be a good bet if you think he has greater than a 67.7% chance of winning.

Jones does appear to have a lot going for him, as he’s younger, taller, rangier, and has never REALLY tasted defeat.  Shogun has experience and one of the best (T)KO finishing rates in the history of MMA (5th all-time with a minimum of 15 wins), but is again coming off yet another knee injury — something that could jeopardize explosiveness and cardiovascular fitness, as we saw in his bout against Griffin.

Under normal circumstances, I would probably take Rua in the upset here, but I think with this latest knee injury, and Jones’s relentless ascent to the top, that at UFC 128, a true star will be born.  Look for a nip/tuck first round possibly going to Rua, then Jones taking over, and eventually stopping Rua late in the 2nd round, or early in the 3rd.  I think Jones is a good bet up to about -240.  This is one of those cases that a higher rank (Rua’s #1 vs. Jones #5) means virtually nothing, as its simply going to be a “changing of the guard” situation.

This kind of dominant win SHOULD see Jones go to #1, Rua drop to #3, with Jones/Evans at #1/2, setting their bout up as a true Champ vs. #1 Contender situation.

UFC 128: How they stack up

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Jason

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
[#1] Mauricio Rua vs. [#5] Jon Jones

Bantamweight
[#3] Urijah Faber vs. [#16] Eddie Wineland

Lightweight
[#7] Jim Miller vs. [#54] Kamal Shalrous

Middleweight
[#7] Nate Marquardt vs. [#27] Dan Miller

Heavyweight
[#17] Mirko Filipovic vs. [#18] Brendan Schaub

Light Heavyweight
[#29] Luis Artur Cane vs. [#57] Eliot Marshall

Lightweight
[#102] Edson Barboza vs.  [#170] Anthony Njokuani

Bantamweight
[#2] Joseph Benavidez vs. [#28 FW] Ian Loveland

Featherweight
[#29] Raphael Assuncao vs. [#31] Erik Koch

Light Heavyweight (195lb)
[#80 MW] Costantinos Philippou vs. [#116 MW] Nick Catone

Welterweight
[#15] Mike Pyle vs. [#18] Ricardo Almeida

Lightweight
[#29] Gleison Tibau vs. [#31] Kurt Pellegrino

MMA Rankings Updated: 3/13/2011

Posted on March 13, 2011 by Jason

The Week In Rankings

Posted on March 8, 2011 by Oleg

Several major MMA events took place in the past week: Bellator FC kicked off a new season with the first round of a welterweight tournament, and a new broadcast partner in MTV2.  Strikeforce lightheavyweight and women’s bantamweight titles were put on the line, and UFC checked in with a third installment in the “UFC Live on Versus” series.  I will also briefly cover UFC 127, the results of which were reflected in the previous ranking update.

Controversy on Versus

In the main event of ‘UFC Live 3’, a bloodied and swollen Diego Sanchez had his hand raised in a questionable unanimous decision win over Martin Kampmann.  All three judges scored the bout 29-28 Sanchez, apparently choosing Diego’s relentless aggression over Martin’s effective counter-striking and takedown defense.  Sanchez rises three spots to #9 WW, while Kampmann falls to #10.

In the middleweight division, UFC newcomer Chris Weidman made his debut on two weeks notice and with only 4 MMA bouts under his belt, and performed admirably in his decision win over Alessio Sakara.  Weidman makes a huge jump in the rankings – 101 spots up to #22 MW, while Sakara falls to #30.  In other middleweight bouts, Mark Munoz and Rousimar Palhares enter the Top 20: Munoz with a first-round TKO of C.B. Dollaway, and Palhares with a trademark heel hook submission over David Branch in an untelevised bout.   Dollaway and Branch fall to #44 and #47, respectively.

WEC lightweights Shane Roller and Danny Castillo made a splash in their UFC debut and earned a Top 50 ranking, as Roller knocked out Thiago Tavares and Castillo outworked Joe ‘Daddy’ Stevenson to a unanimous decision.   In both cases, the loser’s spot on the UFC roster may be in jeopardy: this marks the third consecutive loss for the Ultimate Fighter 2 welterweight winner Stevenson, and Tavares has been very inconsistent and plagued by injuries throughout his UFC career; a tough spot to be in for the ultra-competitive lightweight division.

Notable

Nearly a year after losing the WEC bantamweight title to Dominic Cruz in his very first defense, former champion [#4] Brian Bowles returned to action in a rematch with [#64] Damacio Page, putting Page to sleep with a guillotine choke at 3:30 of the first round – an outcome identical to their previous bout, down to the second.  Both fighters’ rankings remain unchanged.

Keep Reading

The Upcoming Week: Fights of Note

Posted on March 7, 2011 by Jason

Friday – ADFC  (Round 3)

Heavyweight
[#20] Shamil Abdurahimov vs. [#98] Marcos Oliveira

.

Friday – Jewels 12

Women’s Flyweight
[#4] Ayaka Hamasaki vs. [#5 SFW] Jessica Aguilar
Non-title fight

.

Friday – Shark Fights 14

Women’s Super Flyweight
[#1] Tara LaRosa vs. [#16] Carina Damm

.

Saturday – Shooto (Shootor’s Legacy 2)

Flyweight
[#6] Kiyotaka Shimizu vs. [#32] Shinichi Hanawa
[#7] Yuki Shojo vs. [#28] Noboru Tahara
[#18] Masaaki Sugara vs. [#23] Junya Kudo

.

MMA Rankings Updated: 3/6/2011

Posted on March 6, 2011 by Jason

Notable Info

  • Welterweight and Lightweight expanded to an unprecedented Top 500.
  • New stat added to the “Records & Stats” page — Best (T)KO/Win ratio.

This Weekend: Fights of Note

Posted on March 3, 2011 by Jason

Friday – Fresquez Promotions

Women’s Bantamweight
[#17] Christina Domke L-(TKO2) [*] Holly Holm
Holm’s debut. She is the #1 current Women’s P4P boxer and likely Top 5 in women’s boxing history.

Light Heavyweight
[#26] Keith Jardine W-(TKO1) [#252] Aron Lofton

.

Saturday – Strikeforce

Light Heavyweight
[#7] Dan Henderson vs. [#10] Rafael Cavalcante
Henderson recently moved to #9 in our All-Time Absolute list.

Women’s Bantamweight
[#1] Marloes Coenen vs. [#4] Liz Carmouche
Carmouche was our 2010 Women’s Rookie of the Year.

Middleweight
[#20] Tim Kennedy vs. [#29 LHW] Melvin Manhoef

.

Saturday – BellatorFC 35

Welterweight
[#21] Jay Hieron vs. [#74 MW] Anthony Lapsley

.

Saturday – Chicago Cagefighting Championship

Featherweight (140lb)
[#56] Chase Beebe vs. [#274 LW] Steve Kinnisen

Featherweight
[#263] Jens Pulver vs. [#285 BW] Wade Choate

Thoughts on UFC 127 results vs. ratings

Posted on March 1, 2011 by Jason
This year has been a relatively poor year in using the FightMatrix rating system for predictability when it comes to the UFC.  Out of the 11 non-draw matches in UFC 127, the higher-rated fighter won in 5.  We’re batting a tiny bit better on the year, but as it stands we are hovering around 50%.
.
Granted, the UFC does a fairly good job at matchmaking and the rating system here only has some elements of predictability.  Still, I would expect the system to be closer to 60%, and hopefully we get there by the end of this year.  In general, we are closer to 70%.
.
The Good
With the pre-bout ratings in mind, the “correct” bouts show a pretty good reflection of not only which fighters won, but by how they won.  I’m particularly impressed with the system in regards to Quan/Reinhardt, a bout that would likely have caused a pure ELO system to fail.  Even though I don’t like talking about fights in which one fighter was inactive — in this case, both were, and Quan had nearly triple the rating points of Reinhardt.
Keep Reading

UFC Live (Sanchez/Kampmann): How they stack up

Posted on March 1, 2011 by Jason

Welterweight
[#9] Martin Kampmann vs.  [#12] Diego Sanchez

Middleweight
[#24] Mark Munoz vs. [#30] CB Dollaway

Middleweight
[#15] Alessio Sakara vs. [#123] Chris Weidman

Bantamweight
[#4] Brian Bowles vs. [#64] Damacio Page

Lightweight
[#50] Joe Stevenson vs. [#78] Danny Castillo

Light Heavyweight
[#35] Cyrille Diabate vs. [*] Steve Cantwell

Lightweight
[#49] Shane Roller vs. [#80] Thiago Tavares

Bantamweight
[#15] Takeya Mizugaki vs. [#49] Reuban Duran

Middleweight
[#126] Dong Yi Yang vs. [#178] Rob Kimmons

Middleweight
[#22] Rousimar Palhares vs. [#38] Dave Branch

Light Heavyweight
[#99] Igor Pokrajac vs. [#130] Todd Brown

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