Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes (09-27-2025)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5][#4UFC] Carlos Ulberg (13-1-0, -251) vs. [#9][#8UFC] Dominick Reyes (15-4-0, +204)
Carlos Ulberg is the All-Time #44 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Dominick Reyes is the All-Time #36 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Ulberg (3-0-0)
2025-03-22: W vs. [#6LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#13LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#21LHW] Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (3-0-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#22LHW] Nikita Krylov (30-11-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:24 of round 1
2024-12-07: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:46 of round 2
2024-06-08: W vs. [#18LHW] Dustin Jacoby (21-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Carlos Ulberg | -251 | 68.49% | |
| Elo K170 | Carlos Ulberg | 2063.01 | +58.20 | 58.30% |
| Elo Modified | Carlos Ulberg | 2085.35 | +106.19 | 64.82% |
| Glicko-1 | Carlos Ulberg | 2133.25 | +61.06 | 58.70% |
| WHR | Carlos Ulberg | 2002.34 | +84.02 | 61.86% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Carlos Ulberg 34.8, Dominick Reyes 35.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Ulberg 189, Dominick Reyes 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlos Ulberg leads 2-1
.
Featherweight (145)
[#166][#60UFC] Jack Jenkins (13-4-0, -284) vs. [#329][#73UFC] Ramon Taveras (10-3-0, +229)
Last 3 Fights: Jack Jenkins (1-2-0)
2025-02-08: L vs. [#57FW] Gabriel Santos (12-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3
2024-08-17: W vs. [#531FW] Herbert Burns (11-6-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 0:48 of round 3
2023-09-09: L vs. [#33FW] Jose Mariscal (18-6-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 3:19 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Ramon Taveras (2-1-0)
2024-12-14: L vs. [#32BW] Davey Grant (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#62BW] Serhiy Sidey (12-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-10: W vs. [#547FW] Cortavious Romious (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jack Jenkins | -284 | 70.87% | |
| Elo K170 | Jack Jenkins | 1562.22 | +120.73 | 66.71% |
| Elo Modified | Jack Jenkins | 1576.13 | +130.95 | 68.00% |
| Glicko-1 | Jack Jenkins | 1574.08 | +128.49 | 67.69% |
| WHR | Jack Jenkins | 1538.84 | +166.52 | 72.28% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jack Jenkins 32.5, Ramon Taveras 31.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Jenkins 231, Ramon Taveras 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#34][#21UFC] Jimmy Crute (13-4-2, -185) vs. [#48][#25UFC] Ivan Erslan (14-5-0, +152)
Last 3 Fights: Jimmy Crute (1-1-1)
2025-07-19: W vs. [#52LHW] Marcin Prachnio (17-9-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:42 of round 1
2025-02-08: D vs. [#47LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2023-07-08: L vs. [#21LHW] Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:55 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Ivan Erslan (1-2-0)
2025-05-10: L vs. [#42LHW] Navajo Stirling (7-0-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#29LHW] Ion Cutelaba (19-11-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-24: W vs. [*] Bogdan Gnidko (10-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:54 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jimmy Crute | -185 | 62.06% | |
| Elo K170 | Jimmy Crute | 1631.29 | +200.33 | 76.01% |
| Elo Modified | Jimmy Crute | 1677.09 | +156.50 | 71.11% |
| Glicko-1 | Jimmy Crute | 1696.32 | +120.18 | 66.64% |
| WHR | Jimmy Crute | 1638.32 | +94.13 | 63.22% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jimmy Crute 29.5, Ivan Erslan 33.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jimmy Crute 70, Ivan Erslan 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva (09-13-2025)
Featherweight (145)
[#5][#5UFC] Diego Lopes (26-7-0, +224) vs. [#16][#11UFC] Jean Silva (16-2-0, -279)
Diego Lopes is the All-Time #49 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (2-1-0)
2025-04-12: L vs. [#6DD][#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#8FW] Brian Ortega (16-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#19FW] Dan Ige (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Jean Silva (3-0-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#16BW] Bryce Mitchell (18-3-0) via Submission (Ninja Choke) in 3:52 of round 2
2025-02-22: W vs. [#283FW] Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:15 of round 1
2024-07-13: W vs. [#78LW] Drew Dober (27-15-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:28 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jean Silva | -279 | 70.46% | |
| Elo K170 | Diego Lopes | 2006.94 | +75.00 | 60.63% |
| Elo Modified | Diego Lopes | 1991.72 | +55.63 | 57.94% |
| Glicko-1 | Diego Lopes | 2058.65 | +46.30 | 56.63% |
| WHR | Jean Silva | 1964.33 | +35.44 | 55.08% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Diego Lopes 30.7, Jean Silva 28.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diego Lopes 154, Jean Silva 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Bantamweight (135)
[#14][#13UFC] Rob Font (22-8-0, -183) vs. [#91][#48UFC] David Martinez (12-1-0, +151)
Rob Font is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (2-1-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#28BW] Jean Matsumoto (17-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#21BW] Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: David Martinez (3-0-0)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#774BW] Saimon Oliveira (18-6-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2024-10-01: W vs. [#237BW] Xavier Franklin (6-1-0) via UD ()
2023-05-28: W vs. [#550FW] Jose Zarauz (26-11-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 4:17 of round 4
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Rob Font | -183 | 61.87% | |
| Elo K170 | Rob Font | 1995.61 | +324.28 | 86.61% |
| Elo Modified | Rob Font | 1910.01 | +196.45 | 75.60% |
| Glicko-1 | Rob Font | 1965.07 | +206.80 | 76.68% |
| WHR | Rob Font | 1777.37 | +72.27 | 60.25% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rob Font 38.2, David Martinez 27.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rob Font 203, David Martinez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Lightweight (155)
[#36][#20UFC] Jared Gordon (21-7-0, -268) vs. [#75][#40UFC] Rafa Garcia (17-4-0, +218)
Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (2-1-0)
2025-05-17: W vs. [#67LW] Thiago Moises (19-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:37 of round 1
2024-06-22: L vs. [#40LW] Nasrat Haqparast (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2023-11-11: W vs. [*] Mark O. Madsen (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Rafa Garcia (2-1-0)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#306LW] Vinc Pichel (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-10-12: L vs. [#15LW] Grant Dawson (23-2-1) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:42 of round 2
2023-04-15: W vs. [#148LW] Clay Guida (38-25-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jared Gordon | -268 | 69.84% | |
| Elo K170 | Jared Gordon | 1846.67 | +37.21 | 55.33% |
| Elo Modified | Jared Gordon | 1852.88 | +70.86 | 60.06% |
| Glicko-1 | Jared Gordon | 1905.48 | +104.30 | 64.57% |
| WHR | Jared Gordon | 1839.09 | +134.35 | 68.43% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jared Gordon 37.0, Rafa Garcia 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jared Gordon 119, Rafa Garcia 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Both parlays still in the green!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho (09-06-2025)
Middleweight (185)
[#4][#4UFC] Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0, +107) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Caio Borralho (17-1-0, -129)
Nassourdine Imavov is the All-Time #41 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Nassourdine Imavov (3-0-0)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#5MW] Israel Adesanya (24-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2
2024-09-28: W vs. [#14MW] Brendan Allen (25-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#16MW] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Caio Borralho (3-0-0)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#16MW] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 49-45)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#34LHW] Paul Craig (17-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
2023-11-04: W vs. [#29MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (28-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Caio Borralho | -129 | 53.83% | |
| Elo K170 | Nassourdine Imavov | 2200.63 | +104.36 | 64.58% |
| Elo Modified | Nassourdine Imavov | 2158.26 | +83.89 | 61.84% |
| Glicko-1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 2224.47 | +108.34 | 65.10% |
| WHR | Nassourdine Imavov | 2038.88 | +2.77 | 50.40% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Nassourdine Imavov 30.5, Caio Borralho 32.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nassourdine Imavov 217, Caio Borralho 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Lightweight (155)
[#23][#15UFC] Benoit St. Denis (14-3-0, +165) vs. [#34][#19UFC] Mauricio Ruffy (12-1-0, -202)
Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (1-2-0)
2025-05-10: W vs. [#213LW] Kyle Prepolec (18-9-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:35 of round 2
2024-09-28: L vs. [#13LW] Renato Carneiro (20-7-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2024-03-09: L vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (3-0-0)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#46LW] Bobby Green (32-17-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-11-16: W vs. [#239WW] James Llontop (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [*] Jamie Mullarkey (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mauricio Ruffy | -202 | 63.93% | |
| Elo K170 | Benoit St. Denis | 1896.72 | +79.88 | 61.30% |
| Elo Modified | Benoit St. Denis | 1901.16 | +91.71 | 62.90% |
| Glicko-1 | Benoit St. Denis | 1972.61 | +83.80 | 61.83% |
| WHR | Mauricio Ruffy | 1837.85 | +42.39 | 56.07% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Benoit St. Denis 29.7, Mauricio Ruffy 29.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Benoit St. Denis 119, Mauricio Ruffy 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Lightweight (155)
[#72][#38UFC] Mason Jones (16-2-0, -157) vs. [#182][#72UFC] Bolaji Oki (10-2-0, +130)
Last 3 Fights: Mason Jones (3-0-0)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#280LW] Jeremy Stephens (29-22-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-25: W vs. [#137WW] Michael Pagani (8-2-0) via UD ()
2024-02-23: W vs. [#386LW] Bryce Logan (13-9-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 2:45 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Bolaji Oki (2-1-0)
2025-05-31: W vs. [#443LW] Michael Aswell (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#47LW] Chris Duncan (14-2-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:34 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#209FW] Timothy Cuamba (9-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mason Jones | -157 | 58.42% | |
| Elo K170 | Mason Jones | 1772.30 | +189.77 | 74.88% |
| Elo Modified | Mason Jones | 1796.08 | +207.87 | 76.79% |
| Glicko-1 | Mason Jones | 1817.61 | +263.45 | 82.00% |
| WHR | Mason Jones | 1774.90 | +256.35 | 81.39% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mason Jones 30.3, Bolaji Oki 29.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mason Jones 126, Bolaji Oki 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang (08-23-2025)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15][#12UFC] Johnny Walker (21-9-0, +297) vs. [#16][#13UFC] Mingyang Zhang (19-6-0, -398)
Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#12LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:28 of round 1
2024-01-13: L vs. [#10DD][#6P4P][#1LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:42 of round 2
2023-10-21: NC vs. [#10DD][#6P4P][#1LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1)
Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2025-04-26: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:03 of round 1
2024-11-23: W vs. [#102MW] Osman Diaz (10-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:25 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#57LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (17-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mingyang Zhang | -398 | 76.03% | |
| Elo K170 | Johnny Walker | 1791.23 | +52.03 | 57.43% |
| Elo Modified | Johnny Walker | 1802.87 | +67.03 | 59.53% |
| Glicko-1 | Johnny Walker | 1856.33 | +37.60 | 55.39% |
| WHR | Mingyang Zhang | 1777.98 | +58.76 | 58.38% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Johnny Walker 33.4, Mingyang Zhang 27.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Walker 427, Mingyang Zhang 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Featherweight (145)
[#4][#4UFC] Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0, -310) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Brian Ortega (16-4-0, +243)
Aljamain Sterling is the All-Time #47 ranked Absolute fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #12 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Aljamain Sterling (1-2-0)
2024-12-07: L vs. [#2FW] Movsar Evloev (19-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#48FW] Calvin Kattar (23-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (1-2-0)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#5FW] Diego Lopes (26-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (20-5-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2022-07-16: L vs. [#3FW] Yair Rodriguez (20-5-0) via TKO (Shoulder Injury) in 4:11 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Aljamain Sterling | -310 | 72.17% | |
| Elo K170 | Aljamain Sterling | 2161.58 | +181.21 | 73.95% |
| Elo Modified | Aljamain Sterling | 2045.40 | +103.34 | 64.45% |
| Glicko-1 | Aljamain Sterling | 2073.64 | +44.65 | 56.39% |
| WHR | Aljamain Sterling | 1936.22 | +69.73 | 59.90% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Aljamain Sterling 36.0, Brian Ortega 34.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aljamain Sterling 259, Brian Ortega 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Heavyweight (265)
[#5][#4UFC] Sergei Pavlovich (19-3-0, -263) vs. [#10][#7UFC] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (14-1-0, +210)
Sergei Pavlovich is the All-Time #35 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Sergei Pavlovich (1-2-0)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#12HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#4HW+] Alexander Volkov (38-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#2HW+] Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (3-0-0)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#13HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#38HW+] Ryan Spann (23-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2024-05-11: W vs. [#208HW+] Robelis Despaigne (5-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Sergei Pavlovich | -263 | 69.19% | |
| Elo K170 | Sergei Pavlovich | 1997.75 | +109.86 | 65.30% |
| Elo Modified | Sergei Pavlovich | 1987.45 | +84.49 | 61.92% |
| Glicko-1 | Sergei Pavlovich | 2065.40 | +133.36 | 68.30% |
| WHR | Sergei Pavlovich | 1965.29 | +152.62 | 70.65% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sergei Pavlovich 33.3, Waldo Cortes-Acosta 33.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sergei Pavlovich 203, Waldo Cortes-Acosta 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Both parlays still in the green!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Vincent Juico interviews Oleg
An interview with yours truly, courtesy of Vincent Juico’s Sports for All podcast. Discussing MMA rankings, upcoming fights, and more – give it a listen!