In Episode 7, Coach Nelson once again leaves the match-making to chance and his fighters. This time it works out better for the team, with some help from the judges, as Mike Hill scores a split decision win after going three rounds with Matt Secor. Another bizzare decision – this is the theme for the season. As usual, Dana White is exasperated and furious with the judges.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 3.
Here’s who remains:
In Episode 6, Team Nelson scores another upset as Colton Smith takes a majority decision over Eddy Ellis. Once again, Dana White is not happy with the judges’ scores, and feels the fight should have gone to the third round.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 3, Team Nelson 2. Looks like more wacky matchmaking is ahead for Team Nelson in the next episode, meaning they will likely not keep control of match-ups for long.
Here’s who remains:
In Episode 4, Coach Nelson employed a bizzare approach to matchmaking, having his fighters draw straws to determine who gets to fight this week. Julian Lane drew the short straw and chose Bristol Marunde as his opponent. The results were disastrous, with tentative Lane losing an unanimous decision in an uneventful two-rounder. Team Carwin regains the lead as well the control of matchmaking.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 2, Team Nelson 1.
Here’s who remains:
In Episode 3, Team Nelson tied the score with a huge upset win, as Nelson’s second-to-last pick Joey ‘Boom Boom’ Rivera outworked Sam Alvey, Carwin’s top pick and the overall top rank of the season. Rivera earned a majority decision after two rounds, with the scores of 20-18, 20-18, 19-19.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 1, Team Nelson 1.
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 2 airing.
[#71 MW] Sam Alvey [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#149 WW] Leo Kuntz by TKO
Episode 3: lost to [#441 WW] Joey Rivera by majority decision
[#72 MW] Bristol Marunde [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#174 MW] George Lockhart by submission
[#129 WW] Eddy Ellis [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] David Michaud by submission
[#142 WW] Igor Araujo [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#300 MW] Cortez Coleman by submission
[#147 WW] Nick Herron-Webb [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#133 MW] Tim Ruberg by submission
[#215 WW] James Chaney [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Jerel Clark by submission
[#164 LW] Mike Ricci [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#83 MW] Jason South by TKO
[#292 WW] Cameron Diffley [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Zane Kamaka by submission
Episode 2: lost to [#327 MW] Neil Magny by unanimous decision
[#327 MW] Neil Magny [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Frank Camacho by unanimous decision
Episode 2: defeated [#292 WW] Cameron Diffley by unanimous decision
[#441 WW] Joey Rivera [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#386 LW] Saad Awad by majority decision
Episode 3: defeated [#71 MW] Sam Alvey by majority decision
[#489 WW] Mike Hill [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Lev Magen by TKO
[#496 WW] John Manley [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#186 WW] Ricky Legere Jr by unanimous decision
[#460 LW] Julian Lane [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Diego Bautista by unanimous decision
[NR] Dom Waters [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#132 WW] Kevin Nowaczyk by TKO
[NR] Colton Smith [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#325 MW] Jesse Barrett by unanimous decision
[NR] Matt Secor [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#304 WW] Max Griffin by submission
I will be honest: I was not planning on doing the usual episode recaps for Season 16 of The Ultimate Fighter. Even after some kind reminders from our readers, I was at best lukewarm to the idea. The reason for this is that I believe the Ultimate Fighter series has ran its course; the format has become quite stale, and after fifteen seasons it went from ‘must watch TV’ for me to being just another show buried on the DVR that I might get to later in the week, if time allows. And if the sagging ratings are any indication, I am not the only UFC viewer who feels this way. After attempting a switch to the ‘TUF Live’ format in Season 15, UFC and FX didn’t find the live production to be cost effective and went back to the same tired format this season. As a result, the viewership is at its lowest point in the existence of the series, failing to break 1 million viewers in the first two episodes. Let’s face it, it’s very difficult for any show to keep its audience for that many seasons. Very few television series remain on air for this long, and I guess ‘TUF’ just doesn’t have the timeless appeal of shows like The Simpsons.
Nevertheless, I decided to take a look at the rankings of the Season 16 cast, and the results surprised me in two ways: first, the overall rankings of fighters who made it into the house were higher than I expected based on other recent seasons, and also there was a large discrepancy in the average ranking of the fighters picked for the two teams. And so, I am now actually curious to see how this tournament will break down. So here we are, a little late with our recap of Epsidose 1 & 2 of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs Team Nelson – or ‘TUF 16’, for short. Though some of the contestants are ranked in different weight divisions, they are all competing as welterweights on the show.
Keep reading to see how they stack up, with Team Carwin up 1-0 after the first team-vs-team matchup. Better late than never!
If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.
I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.
Before going in to that, a side note. I performed a simple study for recent notable fights and determined that due to the unpredictability of MMA, a favorite should rarely, if ever, exceed -1000 (a bet of $1,000 would profit you $100). Something to think about before you place that next bet on a fight like Silva/Bonnar.
Another side note: A part of the advantage of the rating system (like gambling, too) is that a rating difference can not only help determine an expected winner, but the margin of victory as well. With this in mind, I’m going to be very “black and white” in determining who got it more correct. Feel free to comment on this post and give your thoughts.
Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | “Who won” |
| Jones vs. Belfort | Jones (-856 / Massive) | Jones (3.59x^ / Massive) | Tie |
| Johnson vs. Benavidez | Benavidez (-261 / Moderate) | Benavidez (1.2x / Very Small) | Ratings |
| Bisping vs. Stann | Bisping (-198 / Small) | Stann (1.07x / Pick’Em) | Gamblers |
| Hamill vs. Hollett | Hamill (-357 / Large) | Hamill (1.59x / Moderate) | Tie |
| Swanson vs. Oliveira | Oliveira (-247 / Moderate) | Swanson (1.09x / Pick ‘Em) | Ratings |
| Magalhaes vs. Pokrajac | Pokrajac (-158 / Small) | Pokrajac (1.22x / Small) | Tie |
| Grant vs. Dunham | Dunham (-137 / Pick’Em) | Grant (1.26x / Small) | Ratings |
| Pierson vs. Benoist | Benoist (-217 / Small) | Pierson (1.3x / Small) | Ratings |
| Brimage vs. Hettes | Hettes (-446 / Large) | Hettes (1.07x / Pick ‘Em) | Ratings |
| Gagnon vs. Watson | Watson (-188 / Small) | Gagnon (1.22x / Small) | Ratings |
| Noke vs. Brenneman | Brenneman (-224 / Moderate) | Brenneman (1.95x^ / Large) | Gamblers |
^ – Division move was not factored into rating difference.
We decided to highlight Hector Lombard as being appropriately ranked, or at least being deserving of a higher ranking than Bisping, thus being in the Top 10 — this being in our two blog posts regarding Michael Bisping’s inflated ranking on most sites. Read the “follow-up” blog post here.
Prior to UFC 149, we had Lombard at #6 and Boetsch at #9. The USA/Today Consensus Ranking had them at #11 and #6 respectively.
Given that the official verdict was a split decision for Boetsch, we were all in the ballpark. Though this viewer, and the three Sherdog unofficial judges in the play-by-play, gave the fight to Lombard 29-28. Had this been the official call, our ranking would have been perfect. Lombard didn’t set the world on fire, but a #6 beating a #9 by 29-28 x3 is a reasonable result, considering their pre-fight positions.
What do you think?
[poll id=”10″]
In the last episode, Team Faber took home both of the semi-final bouts: Al Iaquinta earning a unanimous decision against Vinc Pichel, and Mike Chiesa stopping James Vick with ground-and-pound.
The final win tally is Team Faber 9, Team Cruz 5 in team-vs-team matchups.
Here’s the final ranking breakdown. This has been the season of upsets, with a middle-of-the pack fighter going to the finals against one of the lowest “seeds” in the tournament:
In Episode 11, Team Cruz’s Vinc Pichel defeated Chris Saunders by majority decision. The remaining two Team Faber fighters were left to face each other, with Al Iaquinta stopping Andy Ogle with a TKO in the first round.
The semi-finals will be taking place in the next week’s episode:
Team Faber’s Al Iaquinta vs Team Cruz’s Vinc Pichel
Team Faber’s Mike Chiesa vs Team Cruz’s James Vick
Current win tally is Team Cruz 5, Team Faber 7 in team-vs-team matchups.
Here’s who remains:
In Episode 10, the teams split the first two quarterfinal bouts. Team Cruz’s James Vick pulled out a decision against Joe Proctor, while Team Faber’s Mike Chiesa forced a stoppage against Justin Lawrence with ground-and-pound in the overtime round.
Current win tally is Team Cruz 4, Team Faber 6.
Here’s who remains:
Keep Reading
In Episode 9, Team Faber pulls further ahead, as Andy Ogle defeated Mike Rio with a reak naked choke in the second round. This concludes the opening round of the tournament, with firth two quarter-final bouts taking place next week.
Current win tally is Team Cruz 3, Team Faber 5.
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 1.
[#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank
Episode 1: defeated [#175 LW] Drew Dober by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] James Vick by first-round knockout
[#134 LW] John Cofer
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 7: lost to [NR] Vinc Pichel by submission
[#217 LW] Mike Rio
Episode 1: defeated [#177 LW] Ali Maclean by submission
Episode 9: lost to [#137 FW] Andy Ogle by submission
[#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Jared Carlsten by submission
Episode 3: lost to [NR] Justin Lawrence by knockout
[#245 LW] Sam Sicilia
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Erin Beach by knockout
Episode 8: lost to [#248LW] Chris Saunders by split decision
[#248LW] Chris Saunders
Episode 1: defeated [#354 LW] Chase Hackett by unanimous decision
Episode 8: defeated [#245 LW] Sam Sicilia by split decision
[NR] Myles Jury
Episode 1: defeated [#194 LW] Akbarh Arreola by unanimous decision
Episode 4: lost to [NR] Al Iaquinta by decision in the overtime round
[#268 LW] Vinc Pichel
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Cody Pfister by submission
Episode 7: defeated [#134 LW] John Cofer by submission
[#307 MW] Mike Chiesa
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Johnavan Vistante by submission
Episode 5: defeated [#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen by unanimous decision
[#137 FW] Andy Ogle
Episode 1: defeated [#378 LW] Brendan Weafer by unanmious decision
Episode 9: defeated [#217 LW] Mike Rio by submission
[#279 LW] Chris Tickle
Episode 1: defeated [#188 LW] Austin Lyons by knockout
Episode 6: lost to [#287 LW] Joe Proctor by submission (rear naked choke) in round 1
[#287 LW] Joe Proctor
Episode 1: defeated [#168 LW] Jordan Rinaldi by sumbission
Episode 6: defeated [#279 LW] Chris Tickle by submission (rear naked choke) in round 1
[#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen
Episode 1: defeated [#167 LW] Jeff Smith by unanimous decision
Episode 5: lost to by [#307 MW] Mike Chiesa by unanimous decision
[NR] James Vick
Episode 1: defeated [#131 WW] Dakota Cochrane by split decision
Episode 2: defeated [#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank by first round knockout
[NR] Al Iaquinta
Episode 1: defeated [#193 LW] Jon Tuck by unanimous decision
Episode 4: defeated [NR] Mile Jury by decision in the overtime round
[NR] Justin Lawrence
Episode 1: defeated [#164 WW] James Krause by knockout
Episode 3: defeated [#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello by knockout
In Episode 8, Chris Saunders took a split decision after a two-round war with Sam Sicilia, putting Team Faber in the lead once again. Next week, the remaining opening-round matchup between Mike Rio and Andy Ogle.
Current win tally is Team Cruz 3, Team Faber 4.
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 1.
[#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank
Episode 1: defeated [#175 LW] Drew Dober by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] James Vick by first-round knockout
[#134 LW] John Cofer
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 7: lost to [NR] Vinc Pichel by submission
[#217 LW] Mike Rio
Episode 1: defeated [#177 LW] Ali Maclean by submission
[#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Jared Carlsten by submission
Episode 3: lost to [NR] Justin Lawrence by knockout
[#245 LW] Sam Sicilia
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Erin Beach by knockout
Episode 8: lost to [#248LW] Chris Saunders by split decision
[#248LW] Chris Saunders
Episode 1: defeated [#354 LW] Chase Hackett by unanimous decision
Episode 8: defeated [#245 LW] Sam Sicilia by split decision
[NR] Myles Jury
Episode 1: defeated [#194 LW] Akbarh Arreola by unanimous decision
Episode 4: lost to [NR] Al Iaquinta by decision in the overtime round
[#268 LW] Vinc Pichel
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Cody Pfister by submission
Episode 7: defeated [#134 LW] John Cofer by submission
[#307 MW] Mike Chiesa
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Johnavan Vistante by submission
Episode 5: defeated [#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen by unanimous decision
[#137 FW] Andy Ogle
Episode 1: defeated [#378 LW] Brendan Weafer by unanmious decision
[#279 LW] Chris Tickle
Episode 1: defeated [#188 LW] Austin Lyons by knockout
Episode 6: lost to [#287 LW] Joe Proctor by submission (rear naked choke) in round 1
[#287 LW] Joe Proctor
Episode 1: defeated [#168 LW] Jordan Rinaldi by sumbission
Episode 6: defeated [#279 LW] Chris Tickle by submission (rear naked choke) in round 1
[#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen
Episode 1: defeated [#167 LW] Jeff Smith by unanimous decision
Episode 5: lost to by [#307 MW] Mike Chiesa by unanimous decision
[NR] James Vick
Episode 1: defeated [#131 WW] Dakota Cochrane by split decision
Episode 2: defeated [#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank by first round knockout
[NR] Al Iaquinta
Episode 1: defeated [#193 LW] Jon Tuck by unanimous decision
Episode 4: defeated [NR] Mile Jury by decision in the overtime round
[NR] Justin Lawrence
Episode 1: defeated [#164 WW] James Krause by knockout
Episode 3: defeated [#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello by knockout
In Episode 7, the scores are evened again. Team Cruz’s Vinc Pichel stops John Cofer with an arm triangle choke in the overtime round.
Current win tally is Team Cruz 3, Team Faber 3
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 1.
[#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank
Episode 1: defeated [#175 LW] Drew Dober by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] James Vick by first-round knockout
[#134 LW] John Cofer
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 7: lost to [NR] Vinc Pichel by submission
[#217 LW] Mike Rio
Episode 1: defeated [#177 LW] Ali Maclean by submission
[#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 3: lost to [NR] Justin Lawrence by knockout
[#245 LW] Sam Sicilia
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Erin Beach by knockout
[#248LW] Chris Saunders
Episode 1: defeated [#354 LW] Chase Hackett by unanimous decision
[NR] Myles Jury
Episode 1: defeated [#194 LW] Akbarh Arreola by unanimous decision
Episode 4: Lost to [NR] Al Iaquinta by decision in the overtime round
[#268 LW] Vinc Pichel
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Cody Pfister by submission
Episode 7: defeated [#134 LW] John Cofer by submission
[#307 MW] Mike Chiesa
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Johnavan Vistante by submission
Episode 5: defeated [#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen by unanimous decision
[#137 FW] Andy Ogle
Episode 1: defeated [#378 LW] Brendan Weafer by unanmious decision
[#279 LW] Chris Tickle
Episode 1: defeated [#188 LW] Austin Lyons by knockout
Episode 6: lost to [#287 LW] Joe Proctor by submission (rear naked choke) in round 1
[#287 LW] Joe Proctor
Episode 1: defeated [#168 LW] Jordan Rinaldi by sumbission
Episode 6: defeated [#279 LW] Chris Tickle by submission (rear naked choke) in round 1
[#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen
Episode 1: defeated [#167 LW] Jeff Smith by unanimous decision
Episode 5: lost to by [#307 MW] Mike Chiesa by unanimous decision
[NR] James Vick
Episode 1: defeated [#131 WW] Dakota Cochrane by split decision
Episode 2: defeated [#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank by first round knockout
[NR] Al Iaquinta
Episode 1: defeated [#193 LW] Jon Tuck by unanimous decision
Episode 4: defeated [NR] Mile Jury by decision in the overtime round
[NR] Justin Lawrence
Episode 1: defeated [#164 WW] James Krause by knockout
Episode 3: defeated [#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello by knockout
In Episode 6, Team Faber pulls ahead for the first time, as Joe Proctor choked out Chris Tickle in the first round.
Current win tally is Team Cruz 2, Team Faber 3
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 1.
[#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank
Episode 1: defeated [#175 LW] Drew Dober by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] James Vick by first-round knockout
[#134 LW] John Cofer
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
[#217 LW] Mike Rio
Episode 1: defeated [#177 LW] Ali Maclean by submission
[#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 3: lost to [NR] Justin Lawrence by knockout
[#245 LW] Sam Sicilia
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Erin Beach by knockout
[#248LW] Chris Saunders
Episode 1: defeated [#354 LW] Chase Hackett by unanimous decision
[NR] Myles Jury
Episode 1: defeated [#194 LW] Akbarh Arreola by unanimous decision
Episode 4: Lost to [NR] Al Iaquinta by decision in the overtime round
[#268 LW] Vinc Pichel
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Cody Pfister by submission
[#307 MW] Mike Chiesa
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Johnavan Vistante by submission
Episode 5: defeated [#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen by unanimous decision
[#137 FW] Andy Ogle
Episode 1: defeated [#378 LW] Brendan Weafer by unanmious decision
[#279 LW] Chris Tickle
Episode 1: defeated [#188 LW] Austin Lyons by knockout
Episode 6: lost to [#287 LW] Joe Proctor by submission (rear naked choke) in round 1
[#287 LW] Joe Proctor
Episode 1: defeated [#168 LW] Jordan Rinaldi by sumbission
Episode 6: defeated [#279 LW] Chris Tickle by submission (rear naked choke) in round 1
[#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen
Episode 1: defeated [#167 LW] Jeff Smith by unanimous decision
Episode 5: lost to by [#307 MW] Mike Chiesa by unanimous decision
[NR] James Vick
Episode 1: defeated [#131 WW] Dakota Cochrane by split decision
Episode 2: defeated [#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank by first round knockout
[NR] Al Iaquinta
Episode 1: defeated [#193 LW] Jon Tuck by unanimous decision
Episode 4: defeated [NR] Mile Jury by decision in the overtime round
[NR] Justin Lawrence
Episode 1: defeated [#164 WW] James Krause by knockout
Episode 3: defeated [#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello by knockout
In Episode 5, Team Faber ties the score, with Mike Chiesa taking a unanimous decision over Jeremy Larsen.
Current win tally is Team Cruz 2, Team Faber 2
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 1.
[#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank
Episode 1: defeated [#175 LW] Drew Dober by unanimous decision
Episode 2: lost to [NR] James Vick by first-round knockout
[#134 LW] John Cofer
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
[#217 LW] Mike Rio
Episode 1: defeated [#177 LW] Ali Maclean by submission
[#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Mark Glover by unanimous decision
Episode 3: lost to [NR] Justin Lawrence by knockout
[#245 LW] Sam Sicilia
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Erin Beach by knockout
[#248LW] Chris Saunders
Episode 1: defeated [#354 LW] Chase Hackett by unanimous decision
[NR] Myles Jury
Episode 1: defeated [#194 LW] Akbarh Arreola by unanimous decision
Episode 4: Lost to [NR] Al Iaquinta by decision in the overtime round
[#268 LW] Vinc Pichel
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Cody Pfister by submission
[#307 MW] Mike Chiesa
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Johnavan Vistante by submission
Episode 5: defeated [#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen by unanimous decision
[#137 FW] Andy Ogle
Episode 1: defeated [#378 LW] Brendan Weafer by unanmious decision
[#279 LW] Chris Tickle
Episode 1: defeated [#188 LW] Austin Lyons by knockout
[#287 LW] Joey Proctor
Episode 1: defeated [#168 LW] Jordan Rinaldi by sumbission
[#411 LW] Jeremy Larsen
Episode 1: defeated [#167 LW] Jeff Smith by unanimous decision
Episode 5: lost to by [#307 MW] Mike Chiesa by unanimous decision
[NR] James Vick
Episode 1: defeated [#131 WW] Dakota Cochrane by split decision
Episode 2: defeated [#148 WW] Daron Cruickshank by first round knockout
[NR] Al Iaquinta
Episode 1: defeated [#193 LW] Jon Tuck by unanimous decision
Episode 4: defeated [NR] Mile Jury by decision in the overtime round
[NR] Justin Lawrence
Episode 1: defeated [#164 WW] James Krause by knockout
Episode 3: defeated [#231 LW] Cristiano Marcello by knockout
