Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1] Renan Barao (29-1-0, 134.0lb) vs. [#6] Michael McDonald (15-1-0, 134.0lb)
Renan Barao is the All-Time #19 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Michael McDonald is the All-Time #22 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Renan Barao (3-0-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#3BW] Urijah Faber (26-6-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#22BW] Scott Jorgensen (14-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-11-05: W vs. [#11BW] Brad Pickett (22-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael McDonald (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#38BW] Miguel Torres (40-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2011-11-19: W vs. [#232BW] Alex Soto (6-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 1
2011-05-28: W vs. [#15FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-5-0) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renan Barao 210, Michael McDonald 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#8] Cub Swanson (18-5-0, 146.0lb) vs. [#21] Dustin Poirier (13-2-0, 145.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (3-0-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#31FW] Charles Oliveira (16-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:40 of round 1
2012-06-22: W vs. [#41LW] Ross Pearson (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#58FW] George Roop (12-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#81FW] Jonathan Brookins (13-6-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2012-05-15: L vs. [#12FW] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2012-02-04: W vs. [#64FW] Max Holloway (7-1-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 3:23 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 147, Dustin Poirier 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#34] Cyrille Diabate (19-8-1, 206.0lb) vs. [#36] Jimi Manuwa (12-0-0, 204.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Cyrille Diabate (2-1-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#144LHW] Chad Griggs (11-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:44 of round 1
2012-04-14: W vs. [#238MW] Tom DeBlass (7-2-0) via MD (28-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-11-05: L vs. [#39LHW] Anthony Perosh (13-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jimi Manuwa (3-0-0)
2012-09-29: W vs. [#78LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2011-12-10: W vs. [#94LHW] Antony Rea (24-14-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 1
2011-10-22: W vs. [#380LHW] Nick Chapman (3-2-0) via TKO (Knees) in 2:14 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cyrille Diabate 91, Jimi Manuwa 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites.  Like most other financial decisions in life, you can make a best effort to find improved MMA betting odds to suit your individual needs.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds (UFC on Fuel 7)

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.  This particular card has a ton of question marks, mainly focused around the venue.

Favorites to consider: Swanson is the only favorite worth a bet and a small one at that.  He has been on quite a roll lately and I would go with him here.

Underdogs to consider:

• Riddle over Mills – The ratings suggest that this is almost an even fight.  With the home advantage, Mills is a very slight favorite, but I think Riddle is worth a very small bet.
• Harris over Gomez – See above, but I think the home advantage makes this almost exactly a 50/50, so it’s a marginally better bet than above.
• Tezuka over Lee – Even with the nationality adjustments we do, I’m always leery of recommending the Japanese fighter on foreign soil.  Though, I cannot ignore that Tezuka projects as a relatively solid favorite.
• Jimmo over Te Huna – This seems to be the big bet to run with on this card.  Jimmo projects to win.  If you’re going to bet large, I’d say, go with Jimmo.

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.  I really want to call Edgar a good bet, given that he’s moving in with an initial point advantage against Aldo and considering Aldo’s recent inactivity.  Though, there are too many question marks here.

Favorites to consider: Evans.  He is already a large favorite, but he projects as an even larger favorite.  Great parlay material.

Underdogs to consider: This appears to be a great event for the underdogs.

• Green over Volkmann – This is the ol’ Hail Mary.  Volkmann is the legitimate favorite, but Green is a bit undervalued.  A good bet to (potentially) lose a few bucks on.
• Hieron over Woodley – A great value if you think the combo that Nate laid on Woodley was damaging.  Otherwise, it’s a fair bet as the system thinks this is even money, so, go Hieron.
• Maia over Fitch – Maia is still lacking a big win at Welterweight, but he may get it here.  Fitch looked good last time out, but Silva wasn’t proven.  Medium bet on Maia.
• Figueroa over Rivera – Every so often we get a sizeable disagreement between the ratings and odds.  Either steer clear, or go big on Figueora.

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#2LW/#9DD] Frankie Edgar (15-3-1) vs. [#1/#8DD] Jose Aldo (21-1-0)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #20 ranked Absolute fighter.
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (1-2-0)
2012-08-11: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#6LW] Gray Maynard (11-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#10FW] Chad Mendes (13-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-04-30: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via UD (48-45, 48-46, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 175, Jose Aldo 385
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Rashad Evans (22-2-1) vs. [#15] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5-0)
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is the All-Time #13 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (2-1-0)
2012-04-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#10LHW] Phil Davis (10-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-08-06: W vs. [*] Tito Ortiz (17-11-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (1-2-0)
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Tito Ortiz (17-11-1) via TKO (Punches and Elbows to the Body) in 3:15 of round 1
2011-03-26: L vs. [#10LHW] Phil Davis (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-09-25: L vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rashad Evans 287, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 420
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rashad Evans leads 2-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#3/#10DD] Alistair Overeem (36-11-0) vs. [#7] Antonio Silva (17-4-0)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #15 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (3-0-0)
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-06-18: W vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2010-12-31: W vs. [#29HW+] Todd Duffee (8-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:19 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (1-2-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#18HW+] Travis Browne (13-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#1HW+/#1DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-09-10: L vs. [#4HW+] Daniel Cormier (11-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 400, Antonio Silva 120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alistair Overeem leads 1-0
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.  I really want to call Jackson and Mitchell good bets, but I just can’t justify doing so.  If you really feel ballsy, then drop a couple bucks on these guys.  They are borderline picks.

Favorites to consider: Johnson, Russow.  These fighters are the betting favorites, but the rating difference suggest that they are not large enough favorites by odds.

Underdogs to consider

• Cerrone over Pettis.  Pettis is the betting favorite, while Cerrone is the ratings favorite.  Cerrone is worth a small bet.
• Lamas over Koch.  The inactivity of Koch is a gotcha, but if I’m betting, it’s on Lamas.

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#8DD] Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1) vs. [#5] John Dodson (14-5-0)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #19 ranked Flyweight fighter.
John Dodson is the All-Time #20 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (2-0-1)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#3FLY] Joseph Benavidez (16-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#6FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-03-03: D vs. [#6FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: John Dodson (3-0-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#15FLY] Jussier da Silva (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:35 of round 2
2012-05-05: W vs. [#12FLY] Tim Elliott (9-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#47BW] T.J. Dillashaw (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 126, John Dodson 113
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Quinton Jackson (32-10-0) vs. [#20] Glover Teixeira (18-2-0)
Quinton Jackson is the All-Time #2 ranked Light Heavyweight and #12 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Quinton Jackson (1-2-0)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-09-24: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:14 of round 4
2011-05-28: W vs. [#19LHW] Matt Hamill (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#92LHW] Fabio Maldonado (18-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [#74LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1
2011-11-27: W vs. [#123HW+] Ricco Rodriguez (49-19-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Quinton Jackson 335, Glover Teixeira 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#8] Donald Cerrone (19-4-0) vs. [#13] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (2-1-0)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#31LW] Melvin Guillard (30-13-2) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 1:16 of round 1
2012-05-15: W vs. [#65LW] Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-12-30: L vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (2-1-0)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#21LW] Joe Lauzon (22-8-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#65LW] Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-06-04: L vs. [#16LW] Clay Guida (29-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 168, Anthony Pettis 335
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Pettis leads 3-2
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

There are three favorites worth backing: Trinaldo, Nunes, and Vieira.

This leaves THREE underdogs worth considering:

All three underdogs, Dollaway, I. Alcantara, and Craig are similar in that the oddsmakers are clearly looking past the ledgers, of which Brazilian ones are sketchy to begin with.  Their opponents are favored for stylistic and skill purposes, so tread lightly.

Middleweight (185)
[#5] Vitor Belfort (21-10-0) vs. [#8] Michael Bisping (23-4-0)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #18 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-01-14: W vs. [#13LHW] Anthony Johnson (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#177WW] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#17MW] Brian Stann (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#133MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via TKO (Knees to the Body and Punches) in 3:34 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 119, Michael Bisping 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Vitor Belfort leads 2-1
.

Middleweight (185)
[#48] C.B. Dollaway (12-4-0) vs. [*] Daniel Sarafian (7-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: C.B. Dollaway (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#133MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-26)
2011-08-14: L vs. [#124MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 2
2011-03-03: L vs. [#13MW] Mark Munoz (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Sarafian (3-0-0)
2011-07-05: W vs. [#827MW] Ricardo Silva (11-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 1
2011-02-26: W vs. [NA] Gilklei Antonio Silva (0-1-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:44 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [#252MW] Mauricio Alonso (9-4-0) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: C.B. Dollaway 238, Daniel Sarafian 564
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#16] Ben Rothwell (32-8-0) vs. [#20] Gabriel Gonzaga (13-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#26HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2011-09-24: L vs. [#12HW+] Mark Hunt (8-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)
2010-06-12: W vs. [#34LHW] Gilbert Yvel (38-16-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Gonzaga (2-1-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#70HW+] Ednaldo Oliveira (13-1-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Parker Porter (5-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:50 of round 3
2010-10-23: L vs. [#26HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 273, Gabriel Gonzaga 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 1-0
.
Keep Reading

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0, 239.0lb) vs. [#2/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0, 240.0lb)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#6HW+] Frank Mir (16-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-11-12: W vs. [#2HW+/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2011-06-11: W vs. [*] Shane Carwin (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#7HW+] Antonio Silva (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-11-12: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 217, Cain Velasquez 217
Previous Match-up Record: Junior dos Santos leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#17] Jim Miller (21-4-0, 156.0lb) vs. [#18] Joe Lauzon (22-7-0, 156.0lb)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #22 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (1-2-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#5LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2012-01-20: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:04 of round 1
2011-08-14: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#52LW] Jamie Varner (20-7-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:44 of round 3
2012-02-26: L vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:47 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 238, Joe Lauzon 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#6] Tim Boetsch (16-4-0, 186.0lb) vs. [#22] Constantinos Philippou (11-2-0, 186.0lb)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Boetsch (3-0-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#7MW] Hector Lombard (32-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#16MW] Yushin Okami (27-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 3
2011-09-24: W vs. [#35MW] Nick Ring (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Constantinos Philippou (3-0-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#52MW] Riki Fukuda (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#68MW] Court McGee (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#123MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tim Boetsch 161, Constantinos Philippou 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

There are two favorites worth backing: Guillard and Perez.  Guillard is worth a very small bet, while Perez looks like good parlay material.  He’s got a tremendous rating advantage over his opponent.

This leaves FIVE underdogs worth considering:

De Fries vs. Duffee – This one is worth a very small flier at best.  Duffee is the ratings favorite, but the rating difference suggests Duffee projects to approximately a -160 favorite, not a -300 one.

Lauzon vs. Miller – A “dead even” fight by FightMatrix standards, so it’s worth taking a chance on Lauzon who is about a 2-to-1 underdog right now.

Belcher vs. Okami – Okami is a guy that the system has always shown a relative dislike for.  Take that with a grain of salt and pass, or ride with Belcher for a moderate bet, even if he becomes a very slight favorite.

Cariaso vs. Moraga – Cariaso recently dropped from Bantam and took his points with him.  If the weight comes off easily, he makes a fairly strong underdog bet.

Boetsch vs. Philippou – Though helped just a bit by his questionable decision win over Lombard, he looks to be the most solid underdog bet of the bunch.

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical, so neither fighter is a good bet or there are too many gotchas.

There is just one favorite worth backing:

The Waldburger bet is marked because the ratings difference agrees with the odds, but to a larger degree.   The odds appear way off on this one, unless Catone is a completely different fighter at the new weight.

This leaves three underdogs worth considering:

Cofer vs. Rio – Definitely the weakest play of the three.   If Rio drops below -155 or so, this one becomes a PASS.  Very small play here.

Head vs. Pyle – The system loves Head for his split over Ebersole and while Pyle is justifiably the favorite, at -217, he seems to be too strong of a favorite.

Barry vs. del Rosario – The strongest of the three underdogs worth a play.

Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Roy Nelson (17-7-0) vs. [#28] Matt Mitrione (5-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#48HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#50HW+] Mirko Filipovic (27-10-2) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (2-1-0)
2011-10-29: L vs. [#14HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-06-26: W vs. [#141HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2
2011-01-22: W vs. [#101HW+] Tim Hague (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 203, Matt Mitrione 413
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#166LW] Mike Ricci (7-2-0) vs. [#1572] Colton Smith (3-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Ricci (2-1-0)
2012-03-17: W vs. [#212LW] Tony Hervey (15-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-10-21: L vs. [#69LW] Daron Cruickshank (12-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#46LW] Jesse Ronson (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Colton Smith (2-1-0)
2012-02-24: L vs. [#959WW] Steve Montgomery (3-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:08 of round 2
2011-10-29: W vs. [NA] Walter Coles (0-1-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1
2011-03-25: W vs. [#986WW] Brian Nielson (3-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Ricci 273, Colton Smith 295
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#53] Pat Barry (7-5-0) vs. [#73] Shane del Rosario (11-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Pat Barry (1-2-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#35HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2012-01-20: W vs. [#141HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-10-01: L vs. [#10HW+] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Shane del Rosario (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#24HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 2
2011-02-12: W vs. [#35HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:31 of round 1
2010-07-23: W vs. [#321HW+] Lolohea Mahe (6-2-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:48 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Pat Barry 224, Shane del Rosario 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Shane del Rosario leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[*] George Sotiropoulos (14-4-0) vs. [#30FW] Ross Pearson (13-6-0)

Last 3 Fights: George Sotiropoulos (1-2-0)
2011-07-02: L vs. [#9LW] Rafael dos Anjos (18-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:59 of round 1
2011-02-27: L vs. [#3FW] Dennis Siver (21-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-28, 30-27)
2010-11-20: W vs. [#18LW] Joe Lauzon (22-7-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:43 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ross Pearson (1-2-0)
2012-06-22: L vs. [#7FW] Cub Swanson (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#44FW] Junior Assuncao (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-08-27: L vs. [#86LW] Edson Barboza (10-1-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: George Sotiropoulos 531, Ross Pearson 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ross Pearson leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#9] Hector Lombard (31-3-1) vs. [#25] Rousimar Palhares (14-4-0)
Hector Lombard is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Hector Lombard (2-1-0)
2012-07-21: L vs. [#6MW] Tim Boetsch (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#44HW+] Trevor Prangley (26-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2011-09-03: W vs. [#41WW] Jesse Taylor (23-9-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Rousimar Palhares (2-1-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#7MW] Alan Belcher (18-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:18 of round 1
2012-01-14: W vs. [#206MW] Mike Massenzio (13-8-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:03 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#47WW] Dan Miller (14-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-25)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Hector Lombard 146, Rousimar Palhares 223
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#192] Robert Whittaker (9-2-0) vs. [#284] Brad Scott (8-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2012-05-18: L vs. [#92WW] Jesse Juarez (18-8-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-03-23: W vs. [#704WW] Shaun Spooner (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 1
2011-12-09: W vs. [#404WW] Ian Bone (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brad Scott (3-0-0)
2012-03-16: W vs. [#759WW] Mok Rahman (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 3
2011-07-23: W vs. [NA] Gareth Williams (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 1
2010-07-17: W vs. [#817LW] David Round (6-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:00 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 210, Brad Scott 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading

You may have seen our previous articles of “Odds vs. Ratings” for UFC 152 and 153, that we created post-event.  It basically compared the odds difference to the ratings difference to see what was “closer” to the actual result.  This time, I thought we’d come out with it pre-event.

Either way, this is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up such as:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. System inability to project style differences.
5. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #4) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #4 and #5 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-3 that I listed above. I’ll leave #4 and #5 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

1 – Inactivity

So, this ended up to be quite a boring one.  No divisional moves, only one bout of recent inactivity (though I was close to noting it for Swick, even though he has had a fight since his inactive stint).  Not only that, but the betting odds are awfully sound in comparison to the ratings.

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical, so neither fighter is a good bet.

The Siver, Means, Henderson and Jorgensen bets are marked because the ratings difference agrees with the odds, but to a larger degree.

This leaves four underdogs worth considering:

• Edwards vs. Stephens – This was very nearly a “PASS”, but the 1.27x rating difference suggests Stephens is closer to a -150 favorite, so this one may be worth looking at for a VERY small bet.
• Assuncao vs. Easton – The ratings favor Assuncao, but only slightly.  Although still relatively new to 135, he has had two fairly decent wins.  If he doesn’t look bad on the scales, this one is worth a shot.
• Penn vs. Macdonald – There’s a “gotcha” here — Penn’s inactivity.  Still, with that considered, we find him a good bet.  I won’t argue with Macdonald being a favorite, but nearly -300 is too much.
• Rua vs. Gustafsson – Having the reach advantage is something I did not mention as a “gotcha” only because we don’t actively track this.  As in the Macdonald/Penn fight, Gustaf may have not reached his ceiling.  Still,  this is another case of the ratings disagreeing with the odds to a large extent.