Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Dan Henderson (29-9-0, -105) vs. [#6] Rashad Evans (22-3-1, -121)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: L vs. [#2LHW] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#7LHW] Mauricio Rua (21-7-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-07-30: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (34-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#5LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-04-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#15LHW] Phil Davis (11-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Henderson 112, Rashad Evans 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rashad Evans leads 2-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#30] Shawn Jordan (14-4-0, -105) vs. [#47] Pat Barry (8-5-0, -119)

Last 3 Fights: Shawn Jordan (2-1-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#42HW+] Mike Russow (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:48 of round 2
2012-07-21: L vs. [#20HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-8-2) via UD (30-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#260HW+] Oli Thompson (10-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Pat Barry (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#112HW+] Shane del Rosario (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
2012-05-05: L vs. [#46HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2012-01-20: W vs. [*] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Shawn Jordan 140, Pat Barry 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Shawn Jordan leads 1-0
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#5] Alexis Davis (13-5-0, -390) vs. [#3FLY/#8DD] Rosi Sexton (13-2-0, +308)
Alexis Davis is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexis Davis (2-1-0)
2013-01-05: W vs. [#10BW] Shayna Baszler (15-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:58 of round 3
2012-07-28: W vs. [#15BW] Hitomi Akano (18-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:41 of round 2
2012-03-03: L vs. [#4BW] Sarah Kaufman (16-2-0) via MD (29-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Rosi Sexton (3-0-0)
2012-06-02: W vs. [#14FLY] Aisling Daly (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-02-26: W vs. [NA] Roxanne Modafferi (15-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-28, 30-29)
2010-11-27: W vs. [#29SW] Sally Krumdiack (9-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:07 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexis Davis 161, Rosi Sexton 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

Welterweight (170)
[#18] Jon Fitch (24-5-1) vs. [#24] Josh Burkman (26-9-0)
Jon Fitch is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Fitch (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#4WW] Demian Maia (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#28WW] Erick Silva (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-30: L vs. [#2WW/#8DD] Johny Hendricks (15-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Josh Burkman (3-0-0)
2013-03-23: W vs. [#53WW] Aaron Simpson (12-5-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:04 of round 1
2012-11-03: W vs. [#58WW] Gerald Harris (21-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-08-25: W vs. [#345WW] Jamie Yager (6-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:25 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Fitch 132, Josh Burkman 83
Previous Match-up Record: Jon Fitch leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#50] Steve Carl (19-3-0) vs. [#240] Tyson Steele (10-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Carl (3-0-0)
2012-11-03: W vs. [#188WW] Ramico Blackmon (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:11 of round 1
2012-08-11: W vs. [#242WW] Andrew Trace (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:55 of round 1
2012-07-28: W vs. [NA] Vic Hall (3-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Steele (3-0-0)
2012-11-03: W vs. [#704WW] Gregor Gracie (7-3-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:52 of round 1
2012-09-15: W vs. [#347WW] Jarod Milko (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-10-01: W vs. [*] Ben Stewart (4-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Carl 223, Tyson Steele 223
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#65WW] Lyle Beerbohm (21-2-0) vs. [#45] Jacob Volkmann (15-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Lyle Beerbohm (3-0-0)
2013-03-30: W vs. [#1020WW] Justin Larsson (5-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2013-01-12: W vs. [NA] Chris Ensley (5-24-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 2
2012-08-23: W vs. [#497MW] Kenny Ento (13-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:28 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jacob Volkmann (1-2-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#26LW] Bobby Green (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 3
2012-10-05: W vs. [*] Shane Roller (11-7-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 2:38 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#66LW] Paul Sass (13-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyle Beerbohm 76, Jacob Volkmann 132
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: NONE

Underdogs to consider:

• Mendez over Sarafian – A respectable flier on a big underdog that is comparable in ranking to the favorite.
  
• High over Silva – See above.  High has been on quite a streak as well.
• Brunson over Markes – Another case where the home fighter is getting (perhaps) a bit too much credit.
• Castro over Arantes – Arantes has a fraction of a rating point over Castro, while he is a -221 favorite.

Heavyweight (265)
[#5] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1, -300) vs. [#10] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1, +237)
Fabricio Werdum is the All-Time #9 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Fabricio Werdum (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#42HW+] Mike Russow (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:28 of round 1
2012-02-04: W vs. [#9HW+] Roy Nelson (19-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-06-18: L vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2-1-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#68HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:31 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#7HW+] Frank Mir (16-7-0) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#16HW+] Brendan Schaub (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fabricio Werdum 350, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 238
Previous Match-up Record: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#101LW] Leonardo Santos (11-3-0, -235) vs. [#577] William Macario (6-0-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2012-09-01: W vs. [#207LW] Mark Holst (12-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:15 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [#1040FW] Gilmar Silva Milhorance (2-10-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:47 of round 1
2011-05-21: W vs. [#364LW] Jason Ball (20-12-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: William Macario (3-0-0)
2012-06-30: W vs. [#1062LW] Paulo Silva (5-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:56 of round 1
2011-12-17: W vs. [NA] Roger Berger (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#920WW] Gabriel Monkey (4-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leonardo Santos 280, William Macario 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#21] Rafael Cavalcante (11-3-0, -203) vs. [#37] Thiago Silva (14-3-0, +167)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Cavalcante (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2012-05-19: NC vs. [#19HW+] Mike Kyle (20-9-1) via No Decision (Overturned by CSAC) in 0:33 of round 1
2011-09-10: W vs. [#122MW] Yoel Romero Palacio (5-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 2
2011-03-05: L vs. [#3LHW] Dan Henderson (29-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Silva (0-1-0, 2 NC)
2012-11-10: NC vs. [#97MW] Stanislav Nedkov (12-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:45 of round 3
2012-04-14: L vs. [#4LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-01-01: NC vs. [#31LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via NC (Overturned by NSAC) in 5:00 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Cavalcante 385, Thiago Silva 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change or missed weight.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Nurmagomedov, Cerrone, dos Santos

Underdogs to consider:

• Silva vs. Velasquez – Velasquez is the strong ratings favorite, but a “shot in the dark” is warranted as Silva is a strong contender — ratings-wise.
• Holloway over Bermudez – Bermudez is favored by the ratings, but is close to 50/50.
• Grant over Maynard – See above, same deal but a slightly better wager.
• Pyle over Story – The only real disagreement between ratings and odds on this card with no gotchas.

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0, -701) vs. [#4] Antonio Silva (18-4-0, +490)
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Antonio Silva is the All-Time #23 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-11-12: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 3
2012-10-05: W vs. [#12HW+] Travis Browne (14-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cain Velasquez 147, Antonio Silva 112
Previous Match-up Record: Cain Velasquez leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#2/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0, -397) vs. [#8] Mark Hunt (9-7-0, +311)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #4 ranked Heavyweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Mark Hunt is the All-Time #18 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#7HW+] Frank Mir (16-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-11-12: W vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mark Hunt (3-0-0)
2013-03-03: W vs. [#13HW+] Stefan Struve (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:44 of round 3
2012-02-26: W vs. [#19HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-8-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-09-24: W vs. [#25HW+] Ben Rothwell (32-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 147, Mark Hunt 83
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Glover Teixeira (19-2-0, -284) vs. [#19] James Te Huna (16-5-0, +229)

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#12LHW] Quinton Jackson (32-11-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#56LHW] Fabio Maldonado (19-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [*] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: James Te Huna (3-0-0)
2013-02-16: W vs. [#24LHW] Ryan Jimmo (17-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#64LHW] Joey Beltran (14-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#71LHW] Aaron Rosa (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:08 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 119, James Te Huna 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Lineker, Tibau

Underdogs to consider:

• Zeferino over Natal- A bit of a speculative play here.  The odds are just a tad too wide for Natal.
  
• Santos over Alcantara – See above.  We have Alcantara as something like a -450 favorite.  This one is tight and worth a tiny bet at most.
• Hollett over Maldonado – Though Maldonado is at home and a moderate favorite, his three straight losses and the rating system disagree pretty strongly.

Middleweight (185)
[#2] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0, -100) vs. [#4] Luke Rockhold (10-1-0, -124)
Luke Rockhold is the All-Time #22 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2013-01-19: W vs. [#7MW] Michael Bisping (24-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2
2012-09-22: L vs. [#1LHW/#5DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-01-14: W vs. [#14LHW] Anthony Johnson (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Luke Rockhold (3-0-0)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#19MW] Tim Kennedy (15-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#54MW] Keith Jardine (17-12-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 1
2011-09-10: W vs. [#9MW] Ronaldo Souza (17-3-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 119, Luke Rockhold 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#9] Ronaldo Souza (17-3-0, -547) vs. [#30] Chris Camozzi (19-5-0, +402)
Ronaldo Souza is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#37MW] Ed Herman (20-9-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:10 of round 1
2012-08-18: W vs. [#25MW] Derek Brunson (10-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#145MW] Bristol Marunde (12-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:43 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chris Camozzi (3-0-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#33MW] Nick Ring (13-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#134MW] Luiz Cane (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-22: W vs. [#342WW] Nick Catone (9-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:51 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Souza 126, Chris Camozzi 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#12] Rafael dos Anjos (18-6-0, -191) vs. [#21] Evan Dunham (14-3-0, +160)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (3-0-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#27LW] Mark Bocek (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#57LW] Anthony Njokuani (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#169LW] Kamal Shalorus (7-3-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:40 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Evan Dunham (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#22LW] Gleison Tibau (26-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#8LW] T.J. Grant (20-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#10FW] Nik Lentz (23-5-2) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 182, Evan Dunham 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Evan Dunham leads 2-0
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Head, Jones

Underdogs to consider:

• Villante over St. Preux – Villante has been successful since his drop to 205.  A small bet may be warranted..
• McKenzie over Garcia – The mere fact that Garcia is involved makes me leery to even make note of this bout.  Tread carefully.
• Belcher over Bisping – The fringe contenders at Middleweight are constantly bouncing around due to the congestion and matchmaking.  Still, Belcher seems to be an OK bet.
• Healy over Miller – The system continues its somewhat odd Lightweight love affair with Healy, after breaking up with Brian Cobb.  Will this love stand the test?
• Kongo over Nelson – Due to the stylistic difference which I do not consider in these posts, another potential bet that is clouded with subjective doubt.

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#5DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0, -866) vs. [#3MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1, +599)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #3 ranked Light Heavyweight and #13 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2MW] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-04-21: W vs. [#6LHW] Rashad Evans (22-3-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#2LHW] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (2-1-0)
2012-07-07: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD] Anderson Silva (33-4-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#11MW] Michael Bisping (23-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#18MW] Brian Stann (12-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 217, Chael Sonnen 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#11] Michael Bisping (23-5-0, -167) vs. [#17] Alan Belcher (18-7-0, +141)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #19 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (1-2-0)
2013-01-19: L vs. [#2MW] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2
2012-09-22: W vs. [#18MW] Brian Stann (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#3MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alan Belcher (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#6MW] Yushin Okami (29-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#27MW] Rousimar Palhares (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:18 of round 1
2011-09-17: W vs. [*] Jason MacDonald (25-16-0) via Submission (Punches) in 3:48 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Bisping 98, Alan Belcher 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Bisping leads 3-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Roy Nelson (18-7-0, -233) vs. [#16] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2, +190)

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#31HW+] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2012-05-26: W vs. [#63HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cheick Kongo (2-1-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#27HW+] Shawn Jordan (14-4-0) via UD (30-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#8HW+] Mark Hunt (9-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-10-29: W vs. [#31HW+] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 133, Cheick Kongo 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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It has been about 7 months since we made a bet in the “Gambling Analysis” series, so I thought it was a good time to pull it out of retirement.  Although similar to the “Ratings vs. Odds” series, in this post we use the ratings more as a supporting factor rather than a guiding factor.

I am usually against betting on huge favorites, but I don’t think you can go wrong on Jones @ -857 (the current meta-average).  He projects at somewhere around -1100 and I can see Sonnen plodding around the octagon, until he gets stopped late in the 2nd with a barrage of strikes.   There is a chance that the return to 205 makes Sonnen a better fighter, but I just don’t see him being able to take Jones out.

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For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:

• UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
• UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
  • Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
  • No Outcome Predicted
• UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
  • Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
• StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
  • No Contest
• UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
  • Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
• UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
  • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
• UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
  • No Outcome Predicted
• Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
  • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• UFC 152 – Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson: Benavidez @ -290
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Split Decision Loss
• UFC 159 – Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen: Jones @ -857
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2) | Actual:

If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $255.95.  If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit.  We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t count them.

Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Jury

Underdogs to consider:

• Elkins over Mendes: I partially blame this on poor recent matchmaking for Mendes.  Two squash matches did nothing for his rating.  Even still, At such ridiculous odds, Elkins is worth a bet.
• Viana over Dillashaw: Viana has a real shot at winning this one.  An attractive underdog bet.

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#6DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0, -281) vs. [#2] Gilbert Melendez (21-2-0, +227)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Gilbert Melendez is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #17 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Melendez (3-0-0)
2012-05-19: W vs. [#16LW] Josh Thomson (19-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2011-12-17: W vs. [#20LW] Jorge Masvidal (23-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#8FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (32-7-2) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 133, Gilbert Melendez 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Daniel Cormier (11-0-0, -426) vs. [#7] Frank Mir (16-6-0, +328)
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #24 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Frank Mir is the All-Time #8 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#139LHW] Dion Staring (28-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 2
2012-05-19: W vs. [#10HW+] Josh Barnett (32-6-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-09-10: W vs. [#3HW+] Antonio Silva (18-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Frank Mir (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-12-10: W vs. [#9HW+] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-05-28: W vs. [#12HW+] Roy Nelson (18-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Cormier 98, Frank Mir 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#6] Nate Diaz (16-8-0, -201) vs. [#16] Josh Thomson (19-5-0, +166)
Nate Diaz is the All-Time #23 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (2-1-0)
2012-12-08: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#11LW] Jim Miller (22-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#15LW] Donald Cerrone (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Thomson (1-2-0)
2012-05-19: L vs. [#2LW] Gilbert Melendez (21-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#87LW] K.J. Noons (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-12-31: L vs. [#8FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (32-7-2) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nate Diaz 133, Josh Thomson 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Josh Thomson leads 1-0
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Women Atomweight Championship (105)
[#1/#4DD] Jessica Penne (10-1-0, 104.9lb, -526) vs. [#7] Michelle Waterson (10-3-0, 104.7lb, +373)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Penne (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#6AW] Naho Sugiyama (8-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:20 of round 2
2012-04-28: W vs. [#4AW] Lisa Ellis (15-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3
2010-11-19: W vs. [#23AW] Amy Davis (3-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#8AW] Lacey Schuckman (8-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-01-21: W vs. [#11AW] Diana Rael (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:12 of round 1
2010-04-24: W vs. [NA] Masako Yoshida (16-17-5) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Penne 181, Michelle Waterson 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica Penne leads 1-0
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#3/#9DD] Barb Honchak (7-2-0, 124.6lb, -132) vs. [#4] Vanessa Porto (15-5-0, 124.8lb, -102)

Last 3 Fights: Barb Honchak (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#19FLY] Aisling Daly (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: W vs. [#33FLY] Bethany Marshall (4-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 2
2011-10-01: W vs. [#25FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (15-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Porto (2-1-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#7FLY] Tara LaRosa (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: L vs. [#10BW] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [NA] Luana Teixeira (1-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:41 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Barb Honchak 181, Vanessa Porto 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Barb Honchak leads 1-0
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Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Cristiane Justino (10-1-0, 144.8lb, -2585) vs. [#13] Fiona Muxlow (6-2-0, 143.8lb, +1343)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#10FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2
2010-01-30: W vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Fiona Muxlow (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-10-27: W vs. [NA] Leanne Reid (0-1-0) via UD ()
2011-06-25: W vs. [NA] Deney Hayward (0-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 475, Fiona Muxlow 95
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0
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